ADP reported a better than expected 183,000 jobs in January, but small business trends are unsettling. 
The ADP® National Employment Report for January 2025 shows Private employers added 183,000 jobs in January
“We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market. Consumer-facing industries drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production,” said Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP.
The BLS Nonfarm Payroll report is Friday. It includes government jobs but ADP doesn’t.
Change in Jobs by Employer Size
Jobs from large corporations, defined as 250 employees and up are booming.
Corporations with 500+ employees added 69,000 jobs. Corporations with 250-499 employees added 39,000 jobs.
Medium-size businesses, defined as 50-249 employees added 53,000 jobs.
The following chart better shows the discrepancy.
ADP Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment
Year-Over-Year Job Growth Details
- Large: +976,000
- Medium: +288,000
- Small: +252,000
In the past year, large businesses accounted for 64.4 percent of private sector job gains. This is not normal and few economists have even noticed.
ADP Total Employment by Employer Size
Small- and medium-sized businesses are struggling. Yet, small- and medium-sized businesses account for 72.8 percent of total jobs.
I suspect it’s worse than shown on the basis that large- and medium-sized businesses are likely overweighted in ADP payrolls.
Employers with just a few family employees as well as sole proprietors are less likely ADP services and more likely to go out of business unnoticed.
Business Employment Dynamics (BED) lends support to this idea. I discussed the BED report a few days ago.
Business Employment Dynamics
Data from BLS, chart by Mish
BED Statistics by Firm Size
- In the second quarter of 2024, firms with 1 to 49 employees had a net employment loss of 259,000.
- Firms with 50 to 249 employees had a net employment gain of 57,000.
- Firms with 250 or more employees had a net employment decline of 25,000.
BED data just came out for the second quarter of 2024.
The BLS uses the Birth-Death model for businesses that estimates BED. And that model has consistently overstated jobs.
The BLS Confirms US is Now Losing Jobs in Net Business Creation
BED Net vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Please consider The BLS Confirms US is Now Losing Jobs in Net Business Creation
The BLS BED report provides further confirmation the BLS Birth/Death jobs model is seriously screwed up.
Small businesses are struggling like mad. This is something the ADP reports also show.
I hope you appreciate just how messed up this is.
I believe that why we have such a discrepancy between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI), numbers that should match but don’t.
Q: How will Trump “buyout” offers for tens of thousands of government employees impact jobs?
A: No impact on ADP because it is private only.
BLS is more interesting – Those people will still be employed (they get paid for 8 months)
They can take a second job and be double counted
So far, my understanding is few have taken the offer.
If they don’t take the offer, the threat was they would be fired. Not sure if they would still get severance or not. I don’t really know how government jobs/severance works which is why I ask. I hope someone with experience in this will chime in.
I’ve ready that it’s at least now 24K out of ~ 2M who are eligible. So, it’s reasonable to think we’ll get to 30K which will represent about 1.5%. Be that as it may, I wouldn’t call ~30K “few”.
“In the past year, large businesses accounted for 64.4 percent of private sector job gains. This is not normal and few economists have even noticed.”
Shouldn’t it be their job to notice, or are they just biased toward big business?
This labor report shows Bidenomics continues to hurt small businesses.
More Boosters = More Jobs
Death Shots are the path to prosperity (sarc)
These jobs reports are bullshit because they fail to acknowledge that substantial numbers of job openings were created by the Death Vax.
Recent robust job reports have been interpreted by MSM as bullish for the American economy. Financial analysts have been unwilling to acknowledge the role of Pfizer and the enormous numbers of deaths and disabilities experienced by working age Americans in the jobs reports. The reason for this is that all of them are injected with the ticking time bomb, and they will have injected their children. It would be inconvenient, to say the least, to accept that they have poisoned themselves.
Fewer Death Shots translates into fewer deaths and disabilities, and fewer job openings.
More https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/more-boosters-more-jobs
Is this on topic enough for everyone????
At the end of the day its all part of plan, slowly bankrupt small business so that big business can increase their market share.
I wonder how much of investor decision-making is in the hands of mom-and-pops who see one economy vs. the megabucks crowd.
And how will Trump “buyout” offers for hundreds of thousands (maybe millions) of government workers impact this? Asking for an investing friend….
Instant Golden Age!
First they came for the FBI, and I did not speak out—because I was not FBI.
Then they came for the CIA, and I did not speak out—because I was not CIA.
Then they came for USAID, Medicare, Social Security, and I did not speak out—because I was not on those things.
Then they came for YOU because by this time, I high tailed it out of the country —and there was no one left to speak for YOU.
With respects and regards to Martin Niemöller
Thanks, but nobody who indulges in such asinine formulations speaks for me.
Bravo! A safe space is the only place to be! Block him, quickly, before he says something else that makes you realize the stupidity of your belief system.
That’s nonsense, MPO. Trump wants to clean house mostly at the top of FBI & some other agencies. The ones / the types of 7th floor radicals who created mayhem in summer of ‘16.
First they came after corruption in the FBI. Then they came after the corruption in the CIA, USAID, etc.
Some of the pressure on employment is a lack of qualified candidates. Government layoffs relieve that stress.
Do you think government employees are qualified candidates? My interaction with almost every government employee over decades would tell me they do the bare minimum. Maybe that’s not their fault but the fault of bureaucracy but I would take a hard pass on most unless they had stellar credentials and reputation.
Sellar reputation = worships me!
I LIKE THAT !