Tweets 1 and 2
Tweets 3 and 4
Key Points
- The surge varies widely, state by state.
- The four highest percentage states are SD, NE, IL, WI.
- The four lowest percentage states are VT, HI, ME, NH.
- All of the top four states have a percentage of Covid beds over 20%.
Ten Related News Stories
- Illinois has worst COVID-19 week in months as deaths, hospitalizations continue rise
. Illinois reported over 100 COVID-19 deaths for the fourth straight day Saturday. - Rhode Island COVID-19 hospitalizations at ‘tipping point‘ as officials issue warnings
“We are on a very bad path toward overwhelming our hospitals.” - COVID-19 hospitalizations at record high in Washington, hospitals work to keep beds open
- U.S. reports nearly 200,000 new coronavirus cases as more than 1,500 people die daily
- More than 82,100 people are currently hospitalized with Covid-19 across the country, more than at any point during the pandemic, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project.
- 28-Year-Old ER Doctor Hospitalized for COVID: ‘I Want People to Understand How Serious This Is’
- New COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations smash nationwide daily records
- US coronavirus hospitalizations, new cases break record for second straight day
- Maine COVID-19 hospitalizations continue surge to record level, with EMMC and MaineGeneral bearing biggest burdens
- Coronavirus hospitalizations in St. Louis area and Missouri, Illinois again top records
Fake News Report
- Covid is “No Worse Than the Flu”TM
- Covid is a scan perpetrated by Bill Gates in collusion with George Soros.
- Hospitals are just out for the money.
Rationing in Utah
https://twitter.com/bachyns/status/1330612102751547393
Utah hospitals have begun informal rationing of care, doctors say, as they cope with surge of COVID-19 patients.
Mish
This is very interesting because many people (such as myself) have been wondering since April why the CDC does not come out with statistics on the intersection between lupus/arthritis hcq users and covid infection and mortality. Seems like the easiest ‘trial’ to evaluate.
Couple of points (and I haven’t seen the original article yet):
I will have to read the original.
But this IS real data, albeit not yet conclusive in my opinion.
Was in reply to Aussie Pete, but cannot delete or edit, as I intended
Big drop in daily cases from NYT:
“At least 834 new coronavirus deaths and 141,641 new cases were reported in the United States on Nov. 22. Over the past week, there has been an average of 171,461 cases per day…”
While cruising the internet, I recently came across another poster using the name “Realist”. Given the amount of posts this person has on UNZ, I imagine that he had the name long before our sad sack picked it up. Or are they really one and the same? Hmmm.
Realist Comments
• My Comments
7,910 Comments • 284,700 Words
I always liked Chris Martenson’s tagline, that “it didn’t have to be this way”. The US is a perfect place for something like Covid to thrive. We have a fat, unhealthy population to begin with and on top of that, we’re belligerent about it. We’re the sort of country where people would rather throw punches than have to park an extra hundred feet away from a store. We’ve become a country of jerks that can’t stand each other and this is reflected in our response to Covid.
It’s hard to understand how people draw the line at face masks when they’re perfectly happy giving everything to bankers, running up debt, conducting military misadventures around the world that make people hate us, etc. It’s such a weird hill to die on.
Must be fun being a ruling elite in the US. If you want to financially ruin us, we won’t stop you, we might even cheer you on as you do it. But ask us to wear a mask and there will be hell to pay!
Why do you think masks work decades of scientific research to the contrary notwithstanding? (I thought they would work too before being introduced to the science, I mean, why would they even exist?)
The COVID19 numbers are very serious. For every hospitalization there are many multiples suffering at home. The daily deaths are very high and will likely continue to climb in the few weeks. It is sad that so many are not taking this disease more serious. 1 in 1000 adults in the US are already dead. This number could rise to 1 in 600. There is lots of uncertainty about the likelihood of long terms health consequences from catching it.
I urge people to social distance, wear a good quality mask, wash hands regulalry and get tested / quarantine when appropriate.
It is very likely that daily cases will peak in Later November to Mid December. With a growing percentage of the country already infected, vaccinations starting in mid December it seems very likely that by late January the daily cases will be falling at a fast clip. It is likely that by Mid March the US will finally have COVID19 under control which about a full year from when it got out of control [ by under control I mean daily cases less than 20,000 per day and a positivity rate of less than 5%.]
Your in the wrong forum David. The NYT comments are over that way —->. Your comment would fit in perfectly there!
You would be beter urging a sanatorium model — there is still no real effort to protect the vulnerable, and the numbers show it.
We interrupt this comment thread for a public service announcement. This weekend between noon Friday and 4 pm today there have been 4 people shot and killed another 44 shot and wounded within the city limits of Chicago. (No available stats on shot at and missed, must be in the 100s) Christ Hospital, just outside city limits, is on bypass, as are many other hospitals in the inner ring ‘burbs. So don’t bother bringing anyone with a heart attack, stroke or seizure; plan for a longer trip to the outer ‘burbs. This public service announcement brought to you by the idiot white suburban p/ssy-hat wearers, blowing through 4 way stop signs in their $70,000 SUVs with their masks on. And now back to Bozo’s Circus..,already in progress!!!
Sad putz…
KTLA has reported recently, a 12% local hospitalization rate expected for the current spike in cases in Los Angeles.
Dr. Zelenko treated some 400 high risk patients early on in the pandemic, with hydroxychloroquine, zinc and Zpac and had only a 1% hospitalization rate. Only 4 were hospitalized. Zelenko tried to keep his patients out of the hospital.
Seemingly, official policy is that if one gets sick, one is supposed to self quarantine and do nothing particular to fight the virus and just wait until and unless one has difficulty breathing, to then go to the hospital, then be treated at great expense.
I would like to see beds filled vs rnd 1. Considering nyc is fine now and SD isn’t, this feels more like wave 1 for sd than anything. Parts that weren’t hit now are etc. Data like that would be more interesting.
I have no doubt JoJo would feel very different if he were to lose a brother, sister, mother, father or wife. My wife ran a 104 fever for almost a week back in mid March when the virus was on the upswing in NY. She was never admitted to hospital thank goodness but nonetheless I can assure it was a very very nasty virus. I got off lightly with a very very mild case. No real fever but achy, headache and loss of taste and smell.
I wouldn’t take him seriously. I think he’s just a troll, trying to get a rise out of people, by taking the pro-death position.
Definitely take me seriously. VERY SERIOUSLY. Stop trying to force me into living in your reality. I said and meant exactly what I wrote. I am not a troll. If anything I am more of a nihilist, which means that everyone’s life is meaningless, including yours.
No I would not. What good is living by certain principles if those principles can be compromised because YOU and/or your family are affected? I think this quote perhaps fits your thought process better.
“Those are my principles, and if you don’t like them…well I have others.”
― Groucho Marx
Just because you are in the war does not mean you have a better grasp of the facts or the political forces in the field. Yes, it can be a very nasty bug. That does not mean Ivermectin has no effect, except in Egypt and India and Morocco.
Field hospitals in the winter cold….I saw a Columbia Medical Center doc today who reported that their inpatient beds are close to full. The new antiviral that just got emergency use authorization may need to be administered in tents. The whole point of the lockdown (and masks) was to slow the surge to hospitals so we can cope with the ill of all kinds.
And the lockdowns were therefore supposed to be a short-term, weeks long event. Instead they have turned into months, if not years long events.
Did you miss the stories in June through maybe August where many hospitals were complaining that business was down severely, while Covid hospitalizations were not meeting expectations? Therefore, most of their personnel had little to do. Some number of hospitals were laying nurses and MD’s off!
Ultimately, it is the responsibility of hospitals to ensure that they have enough capacity to meet peak demand. I come from the computer industry and this is common practice. Data centers may operate at less than 50% machine capacity in order that the installation can have enough headroom to manage peak needs. This costs each installation many extra millions of $$ initially and often yearly in ongoing maintenance fees for their equipment and software. This [problem] was one of the prime drivers of cloud computing, which removes costs like this from individual companies, transfers them to a hosting location and then spreads the cost of the shared hosting location across many companies.
Hospitals need to operate in similar manner. We cannot shutdown the economy and ruin millions of peoples lives to help address poor hospital planning capacity!
I am a HCW and have many friends who lost money and some who closed their practices. I am in NY and have also suffered financial losses. The hospitals indeed are responsible to keep bed capacity; after the Berger Commission NY closed many hospitals and many beds. I don’t want to shut down the economy, I am in agreement that not everyone needed a sustained locked. My point is that the numbers are real, and we have to deal with the reality of the present moment. Yes, many mistakes have been made during a national emergency and I hope you see the spirit of my post. The doctors I know who do front line are sick to the pit of their stomach with what their patients will be facing. We need early, aggressive treatments for Covid which are still lacking.
The corporate hospitals have been running lean for at least the last 30 years. Doesn’t surprise me one bit their lack of capacity.
[Shrug]. Many don’t care any longer. We’re tired of the constant media shaming and haranguing. Too many have been crying wolf for too long and too often.
260k Covid deaths is still a VERY small number, just 0.0764% of our current 340,000,000 population. That’s less than 1/10 of 1% if decimals don’t work for you. There is no real proof that any large number of people will have long-term problems after surviving the battle with Covid.
600k people die of heart attacks each and every year. Many are in the hospital for months prior to dying. And yet all we get for THIS problem is some media PSA’s?
Then ther eis the upcoming holiday travel. Despite all the begging to not travel for the Thanksgiving holiday, many people are turning a deaf ear. Just watch the TV news and the airport travel stories.
CA governor Gavin Newsom issued overnight curfew orders for something like 94% of the counties in the WHOLE STATE OF CA, starting this past Saturday. But many sheriff and police departments are ignoring the order and refusing to do enforcement, where like the public, they are effectively declaring this so-called pandemic unimportant and finished.
November 21, 2020
Every sheriff in Los Angeles region refusing to enforce Gavin Newsom’s COVID curfew
Here’s where NorCal law enforcement stands on COVID-19 curfew
State imposes a ‘limited curfew’ to counties with widespread coronavirus cases
KCRA Updated: 6:04 PM PST Nov 20, 2020
The number of people who die in the United States every year from all causes is a small proportion of the overall population; 0.78%
While the projected number of deaths from COVID-19 is a small proportion of the whole population, it is approaching 10% of all cause mortality.
That is, of course, in addition to the 2.7 million who die every year.
And your point is? I should be more concerned knowing this because?
You do realize that this death toll of 270k is approximately over 7 months.
HMMM, 12/7ths of 270K is about 460K on an annual basis.
Which would be close to 20% of annual total deaths…
And that number would likely be a one time event that even w/o a vaccine, would decline significantly in years 2-n. A one time, unanticipated, significant event is often called a ‘black swan’. Stuff happens. And then life continues.
And if the medical system gets overwhelmed and the death rate goes to more like 3%? Or the bug mutates into something more lethal? Best to operate on the side of caution. If the official messaging had been better early on about the major transmission risk being aerosols so mask wearing was critical we wouldn’t be in this mess. I knew this late Jan from my valued blogger sources and their links to research papers yet a substantial portion of our population refuses to wear a mask to this day????????????
I think most people thought it spread in the air, just like flu. The majority of people don’t slice and dice things to any great extent.
People, like myself, who don’t wear masks or wear them poorly on purpose, don’t believe that they offer much, if any protection. What Trump had to say on the issue made no difference.
The problem is the gross overreaction to Covid. We have had numerous pandemics over the last 100 years since the 1918 flu but until Covid, no one ever had the arrogance to think that they could battle a nanometer sized virus by wearing masks poorly, staying 6 feet apart (but only 1-meter in Europe and many other countries) and shutting down businesses, even whole economies.
Any empirical data to buttress your idea? (Outcomes, not theories)
Only way to avoid death now is to stop living pre-emptively.
10% of the dakotas have tested positive. Using the most common multiple of 6 means 60% of the people there have been infected. Best guess is 70% is herd immunity. New cases should be dropping off a cliff within a week or 2.
Well you should pitch in then. Run out and get your own case of it. Surely you won’t mind contributing to the herd immunity with your own individual case of COVID?
I don’t get it. Why would i do that?
Yes. Already made my contribution.
Funny that nobody is doing large-scale IgG tests or considering using sero-converted people like me to attend to those most at risk. Anti-body tests are cheap and take about 15 mins.
Herd immunity by infection? Tell me more about this new technology.
Simply Brilliant!
Maybe. Or maybe not. The earlier estimate was 6-24, and the high end has been blown out of the water. 6 is still possible, but only time will tell. I’ve been watching a smaller sample, Clay County, Nebraska. They hit 20%, and accelerated. They hit 35% and accelerated more. They are now over 50%, and still positive tests keep coming faster and faster. Yes, it’s a small sample, and perhaps they have a doctor who insists on testing everyone in the county, but still, it makes me wonder.
At this point, I decline to predict cases will slow down at 10%, or 12%, or 25%. I’ll just wait and see what happens.
I wouldn’t give a plugged nickel for the serological tests being used to determine how many folks have had Covid. From what I’ve seen the selection of the population samples to be tested is anything but random as well. The far more accurate T-cell tests are being fast tracked thru the FDA and will be far more accurate. This combined with random sampling will give better data.
What matters in the end is not serological tests, nor the PCR tests. What matters is the hospitalizations and deaths. In these states hospitalizations are rising fast, and deaths will follow. Will non-pharmaceutical interventions slow cases enough to prevent a disaster? Will Covid slow on it’s own due to “herd immunity”? Will vaccines arrive in time to make a difference? Of these, the only question I can answer is the last one; clearly, no, the vaccines will not arrive in time.
At this rate herd immunity will turn out to be 666% of the population.
What do you think the population density is in the dakotas?
How many people do you think the average dakotan interacts with in a day?
Over in 2 weeks? 🙄
The data to watch for the direction this will go is the mobility data—if this spike will be headed off mobility data must fall.