It Took Nearly 10 Years, But the Battle for $15 Has Mostly Been Won
Millions of skilled workers have retired and the trend is poised to accelerate.
I crunched these numbers following today’s jobs report. For discussion, please see Job Growth Is Well Under Expectations Yet Again.
These trends suggest upward wage pressure for skilled workers.
And please note It Took Nearly 10 Years, But the Battle for $15 Has Mostly Been Won.
On May 13, 2021, I noted Amazon is Hiring 17,000 With $1,000 Signing Bonus at $17 an Hour,
The previous two links suggest wage pressures on the low end.
Wage Stagnation
The Cause, The Cause, The Cause
Despite the wage pressures Wage Growth Stagnation Hits Men Harder Than Women, What’s the Cause?
The short answer is more women are working but inflation is chewing up any wage increase.
The long answer dates to Nixon. Bernie Sanders and Progressive in general moan but fail to look at the cause.
For further reference, I suggest Bernie read A Friend Asks “Is the Fed Trying to Destroy the US Dollar?”
Wage Pressures on the High End Too
It’s not just wage pressures on the low end. Demographics on the high end have huge pressures as well.
For discussion, please consider Explaining the Shortage of Skilled Workers and Why It Will Get Worse
Inflationary Crunch Coming?
On May 7, I commented Add David Rosenberg to List of Those Who Believe Inflation is Transitory
The list was David Rosenberg, Lacy Hunt, and me.
Rosenberg quoted Bob Farrell’s classic market rule: “When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen.”
Not everyone is in the inflation camp, but the boat is very lopsided.
In the past few weeks people keep asking if I am still holding to the notion inflation is likely to be contained.
I am holding as long as the Fed does not make its huge balance sheet directly spendable.
Lacy Hunt is holding pat as well.
He pinged me in response to Explaining the Shortage of Skilled Workers and Why It Will Get Worse with these thoughts.
Mish,
Excellent analysis. I would add one point as a result of your conclusion. Older populations with declining birth rates and slower population, depress household, business and public investment. The contracting effect on investment is highly deflationary and overwhelms the impact of inflation due to the smaller labor force. This condition is plainly evident in Japan and Europe. Moreover, this pattern will be increasingly apparent in the US.
Note to James Powell
We have short-term pressures now from stimulus, wages, and supply chains. However, the supply chain disruptions and the fiscal stimulus will end. The long-term demographics are deflationary as well.
“Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!,” said the Red Queen to Alice.
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