Hurricane Hilary Projected to Hit Near San Diego, Expect Life Threatening Flooding

“The impact from Hilary has the potential to be an extraordinary event, one that is rare and unprecedented.”

Hurricane Hillary is on a path to hit near San Diego or Los Angeles on Sunday. Downpours are already underway and the worst is yet to come.

Hurricane Hilary Churns Toward Southern California

AccuWeather reports Tropical storm warnings issued for Los Angeles, San Diego as Hurricane Hilary Churns Toward Southern California

Downpours advancing northward ahead of Hilary were already resulting in flash flooding warnings across the deserts of Southern California early Saturday morning, and AccuWeather’s expert team of forecasters say that the worst of the storm’s impacts are still to come.

Residents of Southern California are bracing for what could be a once-in-a-lifetime tropical storm landfall. Impacts from Hilary are likely to be highly disruptive, damaging and dangerous, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. Copious amounts of rain, in some places more than would normally fall over the entire year, will trigger tremendous flash flooding.

AccuWeather meteorologists are concerned that a life-threatening flooding disaster may unfold in some of the desert areas east of the mountains in Southern California to southern Nevada and western Arizona. As of Saturday morning, Hilary was hundreds of miles to the south-southeast of Los Angeles and peak sustained winds had slipped to 125 mph, or Category 3 hurricane strength.

The worst conditions from Southern California to Nevada and western Arizona will be from Sunday night to Monday morning. However, the first downpours were already spreading northward into the region early Saturday morning. Flood watches stretched from California and Arizona to Oregon and Idaho ahead of Hilary’s rain.

On Friday morning, the National Weather Service issued a high risk of excessive rainfall for the low deserts to the eastern slopes of the mountains in Southern California. This is the first time on record that the NWS has issued such an advisory in the area, at least in the last 13 years. The high-risk zone includes Palm Springs and the Coachella Valley, California.

Palm Springs can potentially receive an entire year’s worth of rain from this storm over 24-48 hours. The historical average annual rainfall for the desert town is just over 5 inches.

In addition to Palm Springs, torrential rainfall and flooding are likely in other desert cities and parks, including Las Vegas and Death Valley, which could turn into a massive lake. The heaviest rain and worst flooding is likely to stay well west of Phoenix, but flash flooding is likely in metro areas along the Colorado River basin.

Crop Impact

California is responsible for producing approximately two-thirds of the fruits and one-third of the vegetables produced in the U.S., according to the United States Department of Agriculture.

July through October are the busiest harvest months of the year, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley where most of the produce is grown.

“A cool, wet spring has the harvest of many crops behind schedule,” AccuWeather Agricultural Meteorologists Dale Mohler said. “Fresh fruits and vegetables may be susceptible to mold and spoilage due to excessive rain and further delays in the harvest from the storm. Cotton may be discolored, and yields may be reduced. Winds may knock almonds to the ground, where they may become moldy or rot due to the incoming rain.”

If a substantial number of roads and rails are damaged in Southern California, shipping of crops and other products from California to parts of the U.S. could be subject to further delays.

National Weather Advisory

Here is the National Weather Forecast Advisory.

Hurricane Hilary has now turned north-northwestward and is forecast to track near Baja California before making landfall near the U.S.-Mexico border later this weekend. Heavy rainfall associated with the system is forecast to develop across the southwestern U.S. today, well in advance of the storm’s center, and continue through the weekend, with the heaviest amounts expected on Sunday. Highly anomalous moisture transport into the region will support rainfall amounts exceeding the average annual totals for some locations in the Southwest. Flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is expected, with dangerous and locally catastrophic impacts likely. In addition to flooding rains, Hilary is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of southern California on Sunday. Large swells will affect portions of southern California over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Widespread cloud cover will keep temperatures below average, with unseasonably cool temperatures forecast to expand northward from southern California and western Arizona into the Sierra Nevada and the Great Basin through the weekend.

In contrast to the temperatures in the West, dangerous heat will continue to intensify and expand, with well above-normal to record-breaking temperatures forecast across the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley today. The heat wave will continue to expand on Sunday to include more of the Midwest on Sunday. This weekend, some locations in the Midwest may experience their hottest day of the year. The prolonged nature of the heat wave, combined with very warm overnight temperatures, will limit relief from the oppressive daytime temperatures and compound the overall heat impacts.

Flash Flood Warnings

Current Flood and Flash Flood Warnings

Zion National Park expects floods today. Most of the nearby parks are probable.

Information on Flash Floods from Weather.Gov.

Wildflower Super Bloom Next Year?

Don’t expect one, at least from Hilary.

Wild flowers need rain in December, January, and February.

Rain now, and especially mudslides are not beneficial. In general, the change from La Nina conditions to El Nino, is beneficial for wildflowers but the timing of the rain is far more important, and outright flooding is never beneficial.

Meanwhile, take care! If you live in a mudslide area you may wish to evacuate. Stay out of canyons.