The Weather Channel has a simulation of surge heights of 3 feet, 6 feet, and 9 feet. The surge could be up to 15 feet. 
Weather Channel Simulation
It irritating but X embeds are often messed up. Embeds from certain people don’t work, and in this case this Weather Channel Link will not embed. But click to play.
GRAF Model
The Graph Model Link won’t embed either.
“Here’s a look at the GRAF model along with the NHC track of Milton. GRAF keeps the storm a little to the northwest but overall agrees with the NHC forecast. Tampa and areas south should prepare for a destructive major hurricane.”
Milton Track Uncertain
The worse case scenario is for Milton to hit north of Tampa. That’s when counterclockwise movements of air will bring the most water straight into Tampa Bay.
Eye Wall Replacement
Milton formed a new wider eye. In the process it downgraded from a cat 5 hurricane to a cat 4 hurricane. Speculation now is that it may re-energize into a cat 5.
“Milton is going through an EWRC (Eye Wall Replacement Cycle) It could come back stronger with a deeper low pressure reading than 897mb. Milton may break records before we are done. Milton is still on track to be a Major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Shear will determine how powerful Milton will be. Nevertheless, Milton will be a mighty hurricane at landfall.”
Milton is the 5th most powerful storm on record based on the low pressure reading of 897mb.
Milton Reintensifying
That image is as of 9:50 AM · Oct 8, 2024.
Consensus Model
Best Wishes.
Hurricanes = Good.
The rebuilding costs add to GDP… much like adding hundreds of thousands of government jobs boost the employment numbers
All is well.
Now I will go out and smash some windows in the CBD
I’m worried about my friends in Fort Myers, they foolishly may decide to ride it out in their concrete block and rebar house. No response to my contact attempts..
Looks like we shoulda been giving all of the money to FEMA instead of Israel and Ukraine..
925 millibar is the normal pressure at 2500 ft above sea level.
That’s quite the vacuum cleaner.
I have to remind you because nobody else does…..Virtually all of the storm surge from a hurricane occurs to the right side of the eye only……
Correct. This is why Mish mentioned that if it goes north of Tampa Bay its much worse because it will push all the surge into the bay and flood everything. If it goes south, even just a few miles to Sarasota there is a very real chance that Tampa Bay would be emptied out of all water as it was a couple of years ago.
“A 1-in-100 year event is estimated by some to result in $175 [billion] in losses for landfall in the Tampa region, and $70 [billion] in losses in the [Fort] Myers region,” Jefferies analysts said.
How about Orlando and the rest of the areas in the path? Could this be the first trillion dollar disaster?
Estimates for Helene are $100 to $200 billion in damages. Milton will certainly be more. Stronger hurricanes and more stuff for them to damage is inflating the cost of these events.
As Mish posted earlier: Warmer ocean waters provide more fuel that allows hurricanes to intensify faster than in the past.
And the one degree C increase in temperature of the planet means the atmosphere holds 7% more water than a hundred years ago. Which only adds to the hurricanes impact.
Does anyone have a LINK to the GRAF modeling on the web? One of my Bandmates has a home in Siesta Key (We Played Yesterday) and he was getting phone calls from a Friend who found a Trailer to remove his pleasure Boat near Siesta Key, where his house is (near the Eye of the Storm).
I WOULD LIKE TO PASS THAT LINK ALONG TO HE AND HIS WIFE. They are now here in Oregon…
They were JUST in the Helene Storm but they were SPARED by two feet in that Surge as the water crept up within 24 inches of flowing into his home. We are worried for them, of course. HE COULD LOSE HIS HOUSE!
David,
Google ‘GRAF Hurricane Milton’….
A link should come up for Rob Perillo of the Weather-Channel. It’s all posted on Facebook…videos about 30 seconds in duration.
I watched some of the Florida DOT cameras on the highways. Late last night, I-75 northbound was a parking lot north of I-4 and thru counties leading up to Gainesville and beyond. Not sure how the traffic is at the moment. Hope this helps.
Wait until a large ice sheet melts at the wrong place at the wrong time and it’ll be lights out for one of the coast lines.
https://www.science.org/content/article/megatsunami-remote-fjord-rang-earth-bell-9-days
In September 2023, an unusual seismic signal raced around the world, zipping from eastern Greenland to Antarctica in less than 1 hour. The seismic waves continued to radiate worldwide for 9 days, ringing Earth like a giant bell.
Now, scientists have tracked these mysterious signals to their source—a colossal landslide in a remote Greenland fjord that sparked tsunami waves up to 200 meters tall, the team reports today in Science. Like sloshing water in a bathtub, the tsunami resonated within the narrow valley, beating against the channel walls and creating the globetrotting seismic waves like “a big musical instrument,” says Stephen Hicks, an author of the new study and seismologist at University College London.
Was supposed to happen a decade ago. Keep pushing it back. Like the signs at Glacier Park
Glaciers melt all the time, most of the melting is accelerating, the article one was last year. The clock is ticking but believe whatever you want, I’m not in DC near the water. Maybe you can use a cool tesla to get away fast.
Thanks, you can always self select yourself out for the future rather than telling people what they should or shouldn’t do. Be the change you desire. You know, no kids, lots of abortions etc.
Obama likes coastal living, no solar panels and has the largest natural gas tanks on Martha’s Vineyard. Me and Obama are not scared of measly ice sheets.
John Kerry — Mr Climate Change — sold the family summer home on Nantucket a few years ago and moved. No, not to some inland vacation spot. To Martha’s Vineyard, where he has a “summer home” (mansion, to us plebs) about 50 meters from the sea.
They are all such bloody hypocrites. BTW remember when about 200 migrants landed on the Vineyard? It took all of 24 or 48 hours to get them all booted off the island.
FEMA has done such a good job in NC that it must give hope to all those in Florida
You forgot you big ‘sarcasm’ mention in capital letters.
Nothing ever certain about Hurricane tracking.
As Milton moves back into open water as it skirt pass Yucatan it is bound to
re-intensify.
There is some hope it will lose a little strength when it tracks across the wake of Helene’s path, but I am not expecting much relief given how long ago it passed that area.
Dynamics less favorable for tropical systems in the eastern GoM. Decreased intensity appears inevitable before landfall, but that is not to say it won’t do a lot of damage.
“Some people ” may be forgetting how quickly Helene was moving (20+ knots)- it didn’t linger long enough to churn up cooler water off the Tampa coast.
I am missing Trump tweeting that climate change is a hoax.
We had some potent CMEs (coronal mass ejections) hit the Earth over the weekend. From what I’ve learned, we can’t factor out the effects on ramping things up.
Large coronal mass ejections (CMEs) primarily affect space weather rather than Earth’s weather. When CMEs, which are massive bursts of solar wind and magnetic fields, reach Earth, they can cause geomagnetic storms. These storms can disrupt satellite operations, GPS systems, and power grids, and they often enhance auroras.
However, CMEs do not directly influence terrestrial weather patterns like rain, temperature, or wind. Their impact is more significant in the magnetosphere and ionosphere, affecting technological systems and creating beautiful auroras at high latitudes.
Surf is pumping somewhere. Its positive for surfers in texas
“Charlie don’t surf.”
I’m in Orlando. For 8 years I have used Windy.com for unbiased forecasts. Our news is saying 40mph sustained and gusts to 80. Windy.com is saying 25pmh sustained and gusts to 50. News and government would rather us be overprepared. Windy is just computer weather models doing their job.
If government overprepares us, we complain about government
If government underprepares us, we complain about government
Notice a theme?
I just “complain about government,” period! // “Society in every state is a blessing, but Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.” Thomas Paine ☮️✝️
I am glad we can complain about the government. If we reach a time where that becomes dangerous then we will be in a bad place.
With all respect, I don’t think Windy knows hurricanes real well, and suggest you be more cautious.
I just checked the Windy.com forecasts for the Gulf Coast of Florida from N of Tampa down to Sanibel. Windy doesn’t show sustained winds >55 mph ANYWHERE at ANY TIME. Yet we know a major hurricane >100 mph sustained winds is coming tomorrow.
I think Windy knows there’s a strong storm coming, but I don’t think it can accurately forecast the hurricane wind strength, since that’s not standard weather.
While I agree about the news and government tending to over-hype, the reality is that this is because they also frequently miss things they should have got right.
Your worst case scenario is a lot worse than theirs, so you’ve got a lot more skin in the game.
I live in Orlando too (Winter Park). I was surprised at the amount of wind & the duration of that wind since we were on the outskirts of Helene. Winter Park officials said that we had a high gust of 58mph and sustained winds of 22mph. Helene was 100 miles west of Tampa. That makes it about 200 miles west of Orlando.
Charley in 2004 was really bad with roofs blown off, trees downed. and electrical power loss for over a week, not to mention numerous breaks in the water lines. The official FEMA report said that Orlando experienced sustained winds of just over 80mph with gust 120+mph. That storm caused immense damage in the immediate area.
I will point out that those numbers will likely be quite low due to the averaging of model input.
Variability in when/where the eye passes relative to your location within models and runs will lead to calmer winds near the eye dampening stronger wind speeds.
Ensemble forecasting is usually best, but in this type of scenario it gives a poor result for winds near the center of a tropical cyclone.
Those tracks are all south of Tampa Bay. The worst storm surge is to the right of the area where the storm makes contact with land. So Tampa might be spared the worst surge I also wonder if the Bay might create some kind of funnel that heightens the surge.
Hopefully the storm will de-energize before it hits.
the track has moved north approx. 30 miles from 24 hours ago.. so storm surge max would be hitting directly in the bay.
..hardly qualified, but do study the topic.. Milton is dense and below 900mb.. it can displace other weather systems to a bigger degree than models project, models don’t handle unusual data setts well… no models does in any field of study.
the point is, the northern drift might continue and the eye could be closer to pine island ..
Has Nate Silver weighed-in ?