Starting with a Cook Political estimate, I project further to an estimated 235 seats.
Key Overall Currents
- In Midterms, the party in power usually loses seats
- Polls are bad to terrible for Republicans
- Sentiment is bad for republicans
- The war is extremely unpopular
- Gas and diesel prices have voters angry
- Tariffs and trade wars are very unpopular
- Deportations are mildly unpopular
In the current environment, one would expect nearly all tossup seats to break hard against the incumbent party. And I do.
Arriving at 235
- Democrats win 185 of 185 Solid seats.
- Democrats win 16 of 16 Likely seats.
- Democrats win 11-12 of 12 Lean seats
- Democrats win 18-19 of 21 Tossup seats
- Democrats win 4 of 27 Lean or Likely Republican seats
If the polling errors are off by a bit in either direction, we could see results in the 230-240 range. If off by a bit more 228-242 or so.
The polls would have to be off by a massive amount for Republicans to retain the House.
Not even Cook Political entertains that possibility.
Nate Silver Democrat Projections
The low point for Democrats since August 5 was in the first week of September with 230-233 Democrat seats.
The high points for Democrats since August 5 was at the end of September with 238-232 Democrat seats.
As of October 13, Nate Silver projects 238-239 seats for Democrats.
Nate Silver Republican Projections
Nate Silver vs Cook Political vs Mish
- Nate Silver arrived at 238-239 by looking at generic ballots and individual races.
- Cook Political analyzes every race independently
- For my House forecast I started with Cook Political and made an assumption that every close race will tip toward Democrats. That’s what happens in a +8 environment, explained below.
How the Popular Vote Translates to Senate Seats
Who’s Ahead on the Generic Congressional Ballot?
Nate Silver: Updated October 13, 2026
Democrats’ surge in the polls that started in early September still hasn’t stopped. As of today, they’re up to D +8.8 on the generic congressional ballot. That’s slightly down from the party’s high point this cycle of D +9.1., but still, support for Republicans has been trending downward since late September.We post a different version of our generic ballot average on our midterm election forecast page. It applies a likely voter adjustment, which in this case benefits Democrats and moves their lead from D +8.8 to D +9.5.
Republicans are in serious trouble if these charts are in the ballpark.
Democrats would have a majority by 43+- seats, enough to escape the constant bickering over the last two years by Republicans.
To pass legislation, Democrats need to win the Senate as well. I have a 65 percent chance of that.
The Nate Silver Senate Deluxe forecast is 73.4 percent. I need to see higher polls in two of three of Iowa, Ohio, and Maine to get there.
Regardless, passing legislation is one thing, overriding a veto is another.
22 Days Remain
Only 22 days remain in this midterm cycle.
Republicans had a huge monetary advantage on paper and polls shows they did nothing with it.
As of October 13, the University of Florida’s Election Lab by Michael McDonald shows that 3,775,121 votes have already been cast (692,193 in person and 3,082,928 by mail). These numbers will grow every day.
Most minds are already made up.
We are no longer discussing whether Republicans can hold on to the House but how big the carnage will be.
There’s a bit more play in the Senate. But at this point, Republicans would be happy with losing only three seats.
Republicans need to do some soul searching. But they won’t. Neither will Trump, the biggest RINO in history.
Related Posts
October 11, 2026: Trafalgar Group Has Talarico 3.5 Points Ahead in Texas Senate Race
Also, there’s another favorable poll for Democrats in Maine.
October 10, 2026: The Surprise Issue that May Swing Ohio and Michigan Is Data Centers
Local anger over energy bills and lost farmland hits two key battleground races.
October 8, 2026: The Only Hope for Republicans in the Midterms Is a Huge Polling Error
Early voting has started. Most minds are made up. It’s too late for major change.
October 13, 2026: Ken Paxton Partied in Dubai With Fugitives Ahead of Texas Senate Race
Two US citizens indicted for fraud partied with Paxton. They made huge donations.
Impeachment is guaranteed but the question is will there be the votes in the Imperial Senate to convict so this old corrupt windbag can be removed from office?
Trump must be removed from office, and Vance must stop the illegal forever wars and end all aid to Israel, and if he doesn’t he should be impeached, convicted and removed from office, too.
Good news Mish. Then we can get rid of capitalism, get WOKE back on track, open the borders, get trannies in primary schools where they belong, get rid of the police and close the prisons. Life will be much better then.
Why do you always choose party over country because at this point I would have to say that your loyalty to your party is without question. Your loyalty to your country however is a rather open question.
People always vote their wallets. What will they fix? Just more gridlock. Impeach & business as usual. We have more mostly peaceful riots in France. Media says it’s just unhappy students who want better education. Doesn’t look like that when you see the protestors up close.
Well with Talarico all but finished now, and what appears as Zero Senate seats, they best hope to win a couple of House seats. Not that this would help them much, with zero majority, but for a small positive word, that they don’t tout often, for obvious reasons.
“I Expect Democrats to Win 230 to 240 House Seats”‘
Provided we actually have elections. Expect the worst.
I’ve already voted, ballot turned in last week, got confirmation that the county has received it.
There are Republicans up-and-down the ballot who depend on those elections.
They will happen.
Won’t matter. Congress will still be solid AIPAC territory. And the important committees will be led by AIPAC robots.
Good article.
Jessie Watters from (Post Dominion Voting Machine Lawsuit) Fox Entertainment News opines that the increase in diesel and gas prices are chump change for voters compared to their 401k gains. (Consumer sentiment would disagree.)
What will Jesse’s tune be by the midterms and in mid-December? If significant 401k’s losses occur by the midterms, the No-King’s party may gain more than Mish’s top estimates.
are you talking people with 10k or 100k in 401k or many lowerworking class with zero retirement savings? surely not the folks worth one million to ten million.not many of them in reality. and i can count on one hand the number of billionaires or 500million networth folks i know. and igrew up in a wealthy bedroom community a stones throw from wall street, lower manhattan.
(not listening … consumer sentiment would disagree)
Good question, @yippee:
Participation Rate: About 59% of U.S. adults have money invested in a workplace retirement plan like a 401(k), 403(b), or an IRA.
22% have $100K+ in their account.
So a market crash would definitely affect a fair amount of people, but I don’t see it likely by November 3rd. Crashes generally play out over months, except for the exceptionally rare one-day blips which typically recover quickly.
What’s your take on where we’re going?
I really appreciated your call here on Monday that the SPX would lose “north of 4.5% tomorrow” (Tuesday). I shorted the market and made tons of cashola. NOT!
Thanks for nothing (at least in terms of your fractal analyses)
(not listening … consumer sentiment would disagree)
Chump change for voters? Then why are so many farmers going bankrupt if it’s chump change? What about trucking companies? I’m sure there are millions of small businesses that rely on delivery services that ALL have to pay higher fuel costs.
Come on, GTFO with that b.s.
And as for 401ks….
The median 401(k) balance across all ages is approximately $44,115 as of 2025, with significant variations by age group. For example, the median balance for those in their 20s is about $1,948, while for those in their 50s, it is around $251,242.
Never forget this one stat: 80% of the wealth whether its real estate, stocks, bonds, gold or whatever are owned by 20% of the population.
(not listening … consumer sentiment would disagree.
who the fuck measures consumer sentiment. it’s a joke of a measurement. fact is inflation is raging. amerika has abondoned her bases in most important region on planet. we have been chased off bases in the UK for fucks sake. the empire is crumbling.
Bring back Blondie to pump up the market?
Well they had the house and the senate. But they stood back a let trump exe order all of their policies. Ask yourself why and you will get the answer. Their policies are not popular with the average Republican voter. You can only use culture war so far until people realize the benefits getting cut affect them.
Musk has committed 276 million to the midterms. That should tell you who benefits from republican policies.
The problem is the economy. However, economic policies that benefit the average frustrated American do not benefit billionaires or Israel.
Hence, both parties use culture war distractions.
Are you counting the house rep(s) soon denaturalized due to false statements (age) on her citizenship application?
She never took the citizenship test. D’oh!
I suspect this is bullshit – But Democrats would win the seat so there is nothing to count. Sheesh.
But no, I don’t like her or support her
You dummies waste time on this, pretending Talarico didn’t have to flu, similar nonsense- it reeks of desperation and it’s transparent to anyone with two brain cells to rub together.
The Team R brass know this full well. They hope however, to fool enough undecideds to get Paxton across the line.
Inflation was hot this morning. The Iranians still have their enriched material. 82 aircraft were damaged or destroyed. We are live-streaming an execution, just like ISIS.
This is winning.
It is what the majority of American voters wanted.
BINGO WINNER. DEMOCRACY WORKS. always has.
Nope, Nobody but the chicken-hawks wanted war with Iran, and they’re not a majority.
yup. you think trump did NOT get hundreds of millions of votes?
He did “NOT” get hundreds of millions.
He got 77,303,568, barely beating Harris, who got 75,019,230.
Because every one of Trump’s voters voted for Trump in hopes of getting a hot war with Iran, right?
Your math ain’t matin Yippee. Trump ran on no more foreign wars, that and reigning in big tech, releasing the Epstein files, releasing the remaining Kennedy assassination files, bringing costs down and other issues. He delivered on none of them and the one he delivered on, cleaning up the immigration mess, he screwed up so badly by being cruel and overall pretty fascist about he turned a political win into a loss costing a big chunk of the 40% swing against him to the Democrats by hispanic voters.
well put!
@Harrold, I gave you a thumb’s up.
But I’m going to be pedantic. Trump won a plurality of votes, but not a majority.
He never got to 50%. Ever.
what is happening in your community matters and what direction your job is taking.
Who you live with becomes more significant than before. Don’t believe others will change for the better in a decline…. and don’t believe those that are stable will either.
Reconsider your contacts and relationships.
it is unlikely to reveerse its direction regardless of the national elections and more lkely to continue the trend it is on regardless of who wins .
No matter who wins, we the people lose.
In this moment ,there is a relatively lesser evil. That scares me too, plenty, but not as much as this hyperactive maniac. These excesses now must be answered to, checked for now, and there is only one practical way to do that. It is voting against Trump or his proxies. We can sort the rest later.
@Peelo, I voted 3rd-party the past 3 presidential elections.
I’m holding my nose for the next couple and I’m going Dem. I know there are opinions here that it’s just a big uniparty, but one of the things I actually liked about Trump was his refusal to get us into wars.
He even signed the agreements to get us out of Afghanistan, which was great, even if it was chaotic at the end.
But I can’t hope for a 3rd-party movement right now. I still love my country even if it’s ‘full of a-holes’ (see Yippee’s take) or not worth fighting for (see MPOV45).
The possible ending Mike Johnson’s control of the House of Representatives won’t fix everything, but it will fix a ton of things. This is as obvious as obvious can get.
Getting rid of an obsequious boot-licker will help, but beware the next one. Hint – the boot being licked belongs to AIPAC.
But there are other huge issues aside from that.
Excellent analysis. I too expect democrats to win and then accomplish nothing of any significant value unless you consider dog & pony shows valuable for their “entertainment” and distracting the masses.
It’s all bread and circuses in the declining empire
yup. panem et circenses. those old romans knew what the voting public really wanted. i must say the bread is bountiful and cheap, and the trump family circus is to die for. donald’s birthday cage match was the greatest sporting festival since the old romans did their games in coliseums around their empire east and west. which lasted 2000 years in the east. we will bust up just like the roman empire did. split in half.
leftist citizens , voters and leaders are stomping, spitting and dancing on the gravesite of the american free market ….before the funeral. 😱
Well, Trump put the knife in its back with tariffs, inflation and government ownership of stocks.
What “American free market”?
tariffs aren’t part of a free market.
My hunch is you don’t what a free market is. Trump’s tariffs are about as anti-free market as it gets. What his tariffs are is the largest tax increase in American history, and the Republicans were all for it.
Democrats are parasites on working Americans–The Socialist Democratic Party a coelution of Islamist, Communist ,Illegals and Democrats will be a disaster for working Americans should they take control of Congress
Nonsense. Complete and total nonsense, and 100% false.
So, so true. Then, if the Democrats are smart enough to advocate for a 50% Discount/Rebate at retail sale they will win the greatest majority coalition in American history.
Never mind all of the terminally orthodox protestations…JUST DO THE MATH AND KEEP DOING IT UNTIL YOU SEE THAT IT INTEGRATES THE SELF INTERESTS OF BOTH CONSUMERS/DEMOCRATS AND MERCHANTS/REPUBLICANS.
JUST KEEP DOING THE MATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I see the Russian bot farms are back online.
Anybody who disagrees with you must be a Russian bot.
QAnon for liberals.
No, there are plenty of useful fools who fall for the agitprop and then sell it on for free. At least the workers at Russian bot farms are getting paid. The useful morons do it for free.
Ah, if only I were as all-seeing as you.
Isn’t it funny how whenever Russia gets mentioned, you seem to appear triggered over it? I’d offer to provide some of the wealth of academic and respected sources on Russian disinfo, but I doubt you’d be able to read them.
Nope, we’ll get another story about how you totally lived in Ukraine and how the CIA backs everything (without a shred of proof, naturally) and so on and so forth.
I get triggered by stupid conspiracy theories, like what we hear about every enemy do jour.
Meanwhile, you want me to pretend I didn’t live in Ukraine?
Williams dumb ass comment gets these types of responses.
it appears to be an insult, not a statement of fact. and Williams post deserves to be insulted.
Dumbass comments deserve to be insulted, but it isn’t any more necessary to invoke wackadoodle conspiracy theories any more than it is necessary to invoke racial slurs.
Are there socialist communist, etc.? Sure, there are. They will never be an issue because nobody is supplying them with enough money. Far right / Christian nationals on the other hand. The whole Republican system is set up to support them and other fringe rt groups. . Actually use them to keep Republicans in power so politicians can enrich thier wealthy donors and protect the pedos.
There are never enough elites to enforce compliance, and it is dirty, peasant work. But armed thugs are costly. A cost-effective answer is a fantasy cartoon show for the yokels. They are ready to loathe anybody, to feel smart and powerful.
and yet, thanks to Trump, they are going to win.
Hillary’s Long Con.
As I heard somewhere, six things that media keep yapping about instead of investigating and debating actual issues:
Look at ANY show on mainstream media – be it CNN, MSN, Fox, or whatever, every story will fit into one of the above.
Americans don’t want to hear about real issues. Trump figured that out 10 years ago.
Ross Perot failed miserably when he brought out charts and explained our out of control spending. People hated Bill Clinton talking about healthcare. Al Gore bored everyone to death talking about the issues with Social Security.Trump talks about a trans kid that wants to play sportsball somewhere and the voters go crazy with excitement.
Humanity, as a group, is too stupid to manage the complexities it has blundered into.
Any serious attempt to engage the masses with modern complexities will lose their attention.
Mainstream media is a for-profit business that needs engagement, so it must address a median intelligence and attention span, which is abysmally low in the USA. Politics, ditto. I blame the masses. Trump is just an evolutionary extension of their abysmal stupidity. If only they were wise enough to voluntarily stop reproducing, compounding all these problems.
That was 30 years ago , but almost none of those issues were solved
Ah yes, wars, natural disasters, politics, nothing newsworthy there. What should they be talking about then? Please provide some stimulating examples of what everyone ought to be talking about right now.
How about interviews and discussions with regard to imperialist foreign policies? Or labor issues? Or health insurance? Or daycare? Or corporate tax loopholes? And on and on and on.
Have you ever watched ‘Today in NY’ 7:00 am on MS NOW? That news show does have some real News
Fox has real news why the constant hate on Fox News
Because they are careful to filter out anything that paints Trump in a bad light.
For instance, two container vessels were struck in the Strait of Hormuz today.
One was sunk, and it must have been big because 21 sailors had to be rescued. Fortunately, no dead.
You can find the article on: ABCnews.com, CBSnews.com, Al-Jazeera, etc.
Nothing on Foxnews.com.
Same shite and all the lemmings get exited…..
Will the Democrats Blow This Election?
https://lesleopold.substack.com/p/will-the-democrats-blow-this-election
How the Military Will Hack the Election
https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/how-the-military-will-hack-the-election
This is such great news Mish. Now everything will get fixed and we can all get over partisan politics. Freaking libertarians lol
Cry harder. It won’t help anything, but it’s funny.
The BIG question is can JD Vance hold things togather until 2028.
JD Can’t put together a donut order.
Doesn’t matter. Trump will endorse his son for 2028.
As MPO45v2 says, “Don’t worry, Trump will find a way to make things worse.”
The Democratic House (and possibly Senate) will try to restrain Trump.
But he’s so good at holding the national narrative via his chaotic, crazy energy, he’ll continue to dominate the airwaves for the next two years.
The voters will vote for a ham sandwich over the Republican candidate, who will have to kiss up to Trump for the nomination, and will be tarred with a uniquely Trumpian stench in 2028.
Wow. I will try to be more complete with my posts in the future.
You see, I believe Trump will be impeached and convicted by the end of this year and JD is able to prevent the Dems from taking complete control of the government.
Almost all row crop farmers (corn, wheat, soy) in America will lose money on their production in 2026. For a short period this summer, crop prices were up, but that is subsiding as prices fall during the larger than expected harvest. I fully expect storage capacity problems as carryover clogs the system.
Trumps announced sales to China have not materialized since they were mostly lies. The rest of the world is avoiding U.S. products when alternatives are available.
The three row crop farms with the largest Trump signs in the county have allowed those signs to fall into disrepair and two have gone bankrupt in the last two years. I have rehabilitated several former Trump fanboy farm parcels and am in process on another recent acquisition from a particularly noisy Trump failure.
Sadly, a couple of suicides have occurred in the tight knit farming communities that one can trace to high debt loads, and no hope of recovery. For a proud boy farmer, it is easier to put a gun in ones mouth than to admit failure.
A couple of equipment sales have brought few bidders. I was able to buy a brand new mid-size tractor & equipment package at a 40% discount two weeks ago as the salesman was instructed to turn inventory into cash (at a loss).
The classic American family farmer and surrounding agricultural economy is quickly going bankrupt under Trumps policies.
Its a sad state of affairs, sorry to hear it. But ignorance has consequences…
I often wonder why people conflate the negative effects of financialization with cultural values propaganda pushed by populist politicians. Iit seems that if anyone had a front row seat to see fed policy that allows oligarchs to consolidate farm land, it would be farmers. Instead they vote for delusional idiots who screw them further
You get a Mishelin star award for best comment and keeping us informed.
You made my day.
MP, you’re correct. I am sorry that people took the time to downvote your comment, I was looking forward to Frosty’s post.
I love the ones about the diner or the church he attends.
So, more and more Americans are discovering that they are not “temporarily embarrassed millionaires” but are an exploited working class instead??!! Oh, well.
Too bad that there is no true left-wing party that exists that could act in their interests! 😪
Left wing, right wing, it doesn’t even matter.
Most systems can be made to work tolerably well – to the extent that they are run by non-sociopaths.
Yes, it matters. If the state taxes, it is socialism. The right will distribute the state ill gotten largesse mostly to the rich, the left, mostly to the poor. Why else do you think that the C suite has job security, like barriers for dismissal, severance, etc, that the are extended to the common man in the rest of the world, but not in the US?
It doesn’t matter whether the state has power or private actors. Power attracts sociopaths the way fresh dog turds draw flies.
Correct. The answer is whose marketing, as in throwing crumbs, benefits us the poor.
Depends. Both can benefit or hinder.
Hedge accordingly.
Where was it ever shown that a fungible mass of the poor were better stewards for planetary resources, environment, etc.? Just like the rich, they want a free ride, and more of it. They are just worse at getting that. Once they get it,they acquire the same manias.
There’s a line from a song that stuck with me:
They never really owned you
you just carried them around
until one day you put them down
and found your hands were free
Changed my life. Makes me sick to my stomach watching coworkers grovel and scheme for a pat on the head.
Trumpedo, much as I have big respect and take pleasure in your witty asides, this one sounds to me a bit too Jean-Jacques Rousseau, like ‘man is everywhere born free but lives in chains.’ Windy, fantasist, hand-waving, maybe even excessively French. Hierarchy exists for good reasons, assuming it is established reasonably voluntarily, and is not simply a platform for extraction and abuse. I observe the related courtesies in my workplace.
That’s what I don’t get. Why do people allow themselves to be dragged into a hierarchy that exploits them brutally? I had my own companies until I went for the paycheck 20 years ago, and since then I have almost always managed to just do what I decided needed doing, and be left alone.
At first I would sit in their meetings, but I figured out nobody was really paying attention to what was being said, so I just stopped going to them. Nobody said anything about it.
I don’t think people realize how much freedom they have if they just push back a little. Too risky when you’re in debt, I guess. It annoys me though… people accept that treatment from their employer, and it becomes normal.
I was a worker for a long, long time. Getting into entrepreneurship was like walking across a line painted on the floor–but it was all just a mental shift.
I started viewing myself as an entrepreneur instead of an employee.
Now, I can’t go back.
Most people just can’t do it, though. I think it takes an auto-didact and an almost hubristic amount of self-confidence.
I never thought I’d go back, but the corpos piled hard into my little niche industry, and then the paydays came farther and farther apart.
It’s been tolerable, but it’s made me a slacker. There are gravy trains to be ridden…
If we’re going to quote Rousseau: “The cat is free and will never consent to be your slave….”
People in the ag equipment manufacturing business I know report similar.
As farms go bankrupt, who’s bidding on them in your neck of the woods, the usual Black Rock suspects?
I hear China has piles and piles of dollars….
That’d be the best case scenario.
Who is the best steward for resources? Not idiots or psychopaths, whichever flag they are waving.
The Chinese seem to be doing ok now, but I’m sure they’re just as capable of anointing an idiot their leader as we are.
Their system is set up to reward the most brutal of the psychopaths.
I would have claimed that we had a better system, but here we are.
Well, I feel no sympathy. The farmers all voted for this. Its what they wanted.
Perhaps when Bill Gates buys all of their farms he can do a better job.
sorry to hear about the suicides. it is an epidemic and quite human behavior in crumbling evil empires in history of mankind. anthropology 101. the worst time for sucides in usa history was post civil war. my decade in charleston SC working an hour per day as is my life, gave me plenty of time to pursue taking history and other classes down there. and befriending some of the old families who had the family diaries and books and records and oral traditional stories alive. again, even some stupid young farmer born on 3rd base in modern heartland doesn’t need to feel that isolated to kill themselves. your analysis is the best on this site. hat tip to you. i’ve found in my life, reaching out to my perceived rivals and enemies in times of trouble and offering a helping hand the best way to march through this wonderful life. crumbling evil empires can be opportunities to help and be better off. i eye witnessed this in 1990s ex USSR when i did business over there with my russian banker and oligarch contacts and friends……….i think we bust up like the old roman empire did. east and west.
I think the West Coast would stay intact, forming strong bonds with Canada & Mexico.
In the east, the Southeast would be the “stepchild” in any breakup – they don’t border other countries, and have no powerful states (TX may save them).
THE 50% dISCOUNT/REBATE AT BOTH REGULAR CONSUMER RETAIL SALE AND ALSO AT THE RETAIL POINT OF FINANCE (ONE’S MORTGAGE, INSURANCE, AUTOMOBILE OR OTHER BIG TICKET ITEM’S MONTHLY PAYMENT IS A TRUE ECONOMIC THIRDNESS GREATER ONENESS OF THE BEST ASPECTS OF THE UNRESOLVING DUALITY OF CAPITALISM VS SOCIALISM. JUST KEEP DOING ITS MATH UNTIL YOU SEE IT.
The pollsters always underestimate their numbers. The absolute stupidity and base immorality of the vast majority of the American people will give the Chief Pedophile of the United States a great victory. In the eyes of the world, the US is a nation led by a senile deranged criminal while millions of his cult members cheer and egg him on to their complete destruction. Good riddance!
“Every country has the government that it deserves”, allegedly said Charles de Gaulle.
de gaulle knew we were gonna get defeated in viet nam. so he sent his ship to NY to get their gold. smart leader. knew the idiots of french and amerikans……..
The problem with the expected outcome being this bad for republicans is that it becomes more likely that Trump will find away to stop the whole process.
… and hopefully end up swinging from a light post.
Trump for me is the new Mussolini, and look how he went.
I don’t want to overvalue ancedotes but I think the response to Bill’s genius comment below should tell you how the winds are blowing. This isn’t exactly a liberal blog full of Biden sycophants, and yet it seems like not a soul save for Bill, Businesswoman, and Jojo’s ilk (who all get voted into the ground frequently) can so much as look in the GOP’s direction without cringing.
After all, what else is there for the GOP to blunder? They molest kids, openly, while whining and crying about 0.5% of the population being trans or something. They’re openly racist, they’re openly stealing from the treasury, they’re robbing our allies. What low is there left to sink to? Christ alive, we just saw video of Texass’ GOP “candidate” having a party with two fugitives from justice. Every GOP ad I’ve seen so far seems to be baselessly accusing democrats of planning on doing the exact things they all do right now, openly and with a big sneer on their face. There is no promise of better from them, no achievements to boast of. Hate is all the GOP has left, and it is a tired sermon.
“baselessly”…
Burisma. 10% for the big guy
Starting war with Russia.
Committing genocide and ethnic cleansing in Palestine.
Not reinstating the US-Iran agreement Trump renounced.
Not returning Citgo revenue to Venezuela that Trump stole.
Escalated economic attacks on VZ.
Holding the hostages in Gitmo 4 more years.
Spending more on war and surveillance.
Every other bad bill passed during Trump 1 not reversed during Biden.
Biden himself was a chief promoter of the baseless invasion of Iraq and the 1m dead. Before that he likely supported Albright’s “500k worth it” statement, as he supported every war Warshington considers.
You are myopic.
Yes, this new “P.O.S.”-US. is even more brazen. That doesnt make their criticisms “baseless”. The D’s are your “good cops” who work with the bad cops to make the show go on.
R voters think R pols are the good cops.
D voters think d pols are the good cops.
If you are close to one of those camps, r and d press provide a distorted news feed to reinforce your POV and draw you further in.
Neither partner in a “good cop / bad cop” routine is good to you. They work together, against you.
So you just equalize everyone, as the cracks appear in the ship? What reality is on your menu? What option do you actually advocate? Just bottomless cynicism? Does your despising make you feel better as the ship sinks? Does your feeling of rightness and cleverness vindicate you? Do you think humanity hasn’t explored this path? Because the kinds of options then resorted to in the 20th century were the truly ghastly. Whatever you think you get, you replace an imperfect, somewhat rigged system with some shabby opportunism, with only one thing, as it boils out: an absolute center of power with the means to “fix things.” That’s Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin. The vengefulness to correct things and cleanse things bureaucratizes and stalks the streets. That’s precisely where all those lofty idealisms in fact led. So congratulations. You get the gold star for cynical cleverness.
I gave you the answer before: Don’t vote for establishment puppets. Dont fall for the good cop – bad cop routine. You’re at best in zugzwang and every vote for a D or R keeps you there. Organize yourselves. Meet with neighbors. Elect honorable people to the HR. Look for moles and opportunists who will join your ranks, possibly earlier than you gain a Rolodex of 100 names of genuine interested people.
You havent explored this path. You remain on the same path the oligarchs lay out for you every campaign.
And from that well worn path you mock me. Why?
You don’t have a choice. Yes the system is rigged. So what to do? Understand Congressmen and Senators love their power. So if Republicans are sucking, vote Democrat. If Democrats are sucking, vote Republican. When they know they will lose their job, they’ll change their attitudes.
They are disposable assets. And there’s plenty of them for hire. You’re not changing anything with your short-term tactic.
The ones who “lose” their “elected” job go through the revolving door. Ivy teaching gig. Paid appearances on Fox or CNN. Campaign advisor. Book deal. Ambassadorship. Aide. If they do enough good things for their oligarchs and bad things to you and me, they fail upwards.
Doesn’t matter. The system is rigged, all you can do is cause whatever pain and damage you can.
Somehow these “short term tactics” changed a lot in the US since the 1960s. You’re probably old enough to remember. This “I’m not voting” tantrum business is willful idiocy and your vote will be thrown in the garbage while you stand there looking smug about doing nothing to help anyone. Congrats!
Voting for the alternative Progressive Party gave the presidency to Democrat Woodrow Wilson. Voting for alternative Ross Perot gave it to neoliberal Democrat Bill Clinton. Voting for alternative Ralph Nader gave it to Republican George W. Bush. Congratulations to those folks for all that noble independence. It might get you laid.
so if you vote for a 3rd party all you are doing is electing a Democrat or a republican.
and your answer to this problem is to just vote for a Democrat or Republican?
we can follow Unipartys long term goals, there is nothing wrong with his proscriptions.
here is the thing: we can organize locally to bring down the rigged system using what Uniparty said AND still vote Democrat this election.
they are not exclusionary.
Indeed, thats because they were voting for two opposed ideologies…that result in no actual change. Thats why the 50% Discount/Rebate at retail sale is so necessary BECAUSE ITS A TRUE SYNTHESIS/THIRDNESS THAT WILDLY BENEFITS BOTH OF THE CONSTITUENTS OF THOSE OPPOSITES.
JUST KEEP DOING THE DOUBLE ENTRY BOOKKEEPING AND MATH OF THAT POLICY UNTIL YOU REALIZE THIS.
BINGO WINNER
I appreciate your affirmative response.
If you continue walking towards a destination, you will eventually arrive. You’re the oligarch puppet voter paving the way for ever more disastrous outcomes, one new “lesser evil” at a time.
Do you think that describes what you are doing politically? Or is it unfair?
I would be too arrogant to assume I know this path leads to such a future. Things have ways of adjusting unforeseeably in complex adaptive systems. Edmund Burke school of small-C conservatism: if something has come into being that is working even OK on a wide observable distribution, think very, very hard before discarding it for some supposed fix. I see a lot working rather surprisingly (to my tiny brain) OK across this vast sprawling distribution. Who knows where it goes with breaking it and a whole new “boss.” And I see the disasters those supposed, willed, idealizing new fixes have brought the planet I’m only addressing this juncture and what I think will bring some adjustment toward less bad, however temporary that may be. I just want to end this particular idiocy, with actual action available to us, at hand. Windy, distant goal posts are what Trump’ sells constantly, IMO. With all due respect.
I am with Peelo, we have a system that has survived for 250 years.
I’d like to see ranked-choice voting and term limits across the board.
Age limits should be put in place, automatic retirement for all politicians at age 65.
Exactly thank you
Too many edgelords here
You didnt even rebut anything I wrote about how D’s do the same as R’s. Just grandstanding without substance.
I voted for independent candidates who stood for something good. I dont “equalize” everyone as you wrongly imagined.
The rest of your grandstanding really bothers me. But ive already wasted enough time this.
You’re a solid contributor, peelo. I’m disappointed with this comment of yours. Guess we will simply disagree on this.
This is my last word to you today.
Recognizing the truth is important. It is the Uniparty that is causing the ship to go down. Blindly voting for the other cheek of the Uniparty ass is not a solution. No solution is possible until we stop voting for the Uniparty. Yes, that will take time and requires others to join, but it is the path out of darkness.
Yes you are correct but what will happen to borders and incoming migrants under more democrats? Thr devil you know and all that? A Texas Ceuta?
Well, their children will be less likely to be molested by some rich prick, for starters…
Speaking of which… where are those guys?
They aren’t. If they were, they would at least have a redeeming quality.
The only good thing that can be said about Republitards is that they are not Demonrats.
A country looney tune in the making, brought to you by…
Trump and the Lockstep Republican Party:
“Looking for souls in all the wrong places”
Any cross references on “data centers” for the candidates?
Ice operating in a cruel and abusive manner has had major impacts on the Hispanic vote. Contributed heavily to the 40 point switch from Republican to Democratic which will have outsize impacts in states like Texas…
That was always going to be a tough one. The whole point of the crackdown was to show Trump supporters that Trump could cause a lot of pain for desperate immigrants. Crack some heads, kill people, throw their kids in cages. MAGA gets off on that. But you needed a fine balance so that naturalized Hispanic immigrants wouldn’t see the inherent racism. The way to do it was to put the hurt on illegals who were also criminals. Put the hurt on the rapists and gangsters. But those guys are hard to find. So they were stuck with just beating up and killing guys who were just trying to support their families and loved the opportunity to be in this country. MAGA was still happy with the beatings and killings, but it drove away decent Americans of all stripes.
Wow, pungent comment. Can’t argue with it. I believe we need firm borders, but when they start going after citizenship and even lose that at the Supreme Court, they’ve lost the plot.
Well, Bill is better off despite high gas prices and high food prices, but I am not and the majority of Americans are not. Consumer confidence numbers are at record lows. Its no mystery that Trump’s idiotic tariffs and gratuitous attack on Iran are to blame.
Trump came into office tilting at windmills and all sources of green energy,while subsidizing fossil fuels. The irony is that Trumps hubris and ignorance in attacking Iran will be the catalyst for the development and proliferation of green energy technologies. The oil and gas market will be expensive and volatile for the foreseeable future,even if hostilities ended today.
Trust the market to recognize the comparative advantages of wind, solar, and maybe even nuclear, and to spur investment and innovation of alternative, clean energy. All thanks to the idiocy of Donald Trump. Perhaps he does deserve a Nobel Prize after all.
China is going full speed ahead. Regan tried to abolish the Dept of Energy. Now the Chinese eat our hard earned lunch.
China its problems, but having completely stupid leadership at the top is not one of them.
Nice, nuanced, short statement – and 100% true.
Nitpicking here…
Was our lunch hard-earned? Or stupidly discarded?
Is China eating any of our lunch? I mean, did any of the $10+T we spent the past 10yr on wars flow towards Chinese factories and bankers? Or did it flow back to western oligarchs?
In sum, i doubt you were trying to criticize China. But, in a way, you innocently did by using that metaphor.
People do point out China made trade gains while oceania made war. But, Oceania spend some of its effort sabotaging and reversing China trade gains. If Oceania sought win-win trade instead of war, I doubt China would be “worse off”.
What I meant was that the US did much of the hard work of developing solar. Then Reagan cut the solar research budget leaving it to private industry. The problem is companies don’t do much basic research. They do engineering and design capitalizing on the science. Reagan cut a lot of the DOE budget. He had very little foresight.
Now the Chinese dominate the market. One of the solar panels taken off of the White House roof in ‘86 now sits in the museum of the largest solar panel manufacturer in the world located in China. China’s rise was also hard won but in the area of manufacturing. They played the long game and have come out on top.
Uniparty is correct. It’s not “our lunch”.
China simply produces things humans want to buy, better and cheaper than we do. Competition. They win. We lose.
Hence, the frantic Trump/Biden efforts to rig the competition.
China always plays the long game. They develop long term plans to win the market and stick to them. But they don’t often have the original ideas. They just capitalize on them.
Buffalobob,
I think you put your finger on the bad energy decisions of Trump that history will see as pivotal to the fortunes and fate of the USA. Alongside a deluge of other bad stuff. The Iran war is an offshoot of that fatefully flawed policy.
Trump’s changes are finally cracking my family’s finances apart. I have been diligent and careful.
Elaborate, please.
Well you do have to shake your head at the anger at the gas pump when the latest information showed highest real income on records and the historicaly low poverty scores. The media, the gas signs and the Trump Iran/tariff/inflammatory-mouthisms has everyone all ginned up. Imagine what the hell would happen if we had actual systemic pain and not the manufactured or fairly localized pain. I realize there are swaths of people worse off but in general that’s not what I see and it’s not what I know in my personal circle.
I don’t like the price of gas but I’m better off anyway. I don’t like the price of groceries but I’m better off anyway. Closed border. Low crime. The farmers are paying a lot more for diesel, yep, but they are also seeing huge price increases.
But everyone big mad including the author of the blog who also is surely better off, and for someone that vacated the policies of the left in IL it’s hard to understand a recent statement that we’d be better off with them back in charge. But I defer to the journalistic license that comes with writing a daily blog.
And if/when the blue wave comes to fruition we can sit back and watch what incredible ideas they have for “fixing” all the problems. I haven’t heard one yet. In all the ads, flyers, etc all I’ve seen and heard is, “we’re not them, Trump bad, data centers all bad, prices up–we’ll fix that”, without enumerating how, although i did see a candidate state “by raising taxes”…not sure how that fixes the inflation.
Can’t wait until the ads stop and the indictments and non-solutions show up.
Great you are better off and willing to live with rapist, pedophile protecting, warmongering liars. Congrats.
can’t we have a unity ticket. biden and genocide and famine and ukraine war 300billion of USD to kill millions of humans? with trump epstein warmongering school girl murdering? seems like the amerikan people love it. democracy works old sport. the ugly. truth. see ancient greeks and romans for explanations on this simple truth. modern amerikans too arrogant and ignorant to deal with this. uniparty of cunts. 95% of amerikans.
hunter biden / donald trump jr. unity ticket. genocide famine and epstein pedophiles and endless warfare……….world wide.
So, what alternative to cleanse the stables? What exactly do you advocate? The last two centuries are full of righteous purist idealists like you. And many were consumed by the solutions they created. They were literally liquidated, once their useful idiocy had run its course and birthed something beyond awful, in the name of beautifying the world.
FDR was an outlier, recreating a system without this catastrophe. That’s the single example I can think of without mass fatalities. The others are legion: Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini, Napoleon. You think they didn’t have crowds of disappointed idealists like you buzzing around, at first? These were the first to be discarded.
nope. you sound like an ignoramous. easy. i vote for the greens or libertarians at federal office level. they at least advocate for peace and prosperity. you, like 95% of amerikans vote for the warmongering uniparty.
I voted for candidates like Stein. But he accuses me and other independent candidates and voters of ushering in Hitler. Meanwhile the D’s “blue no matter who” election of Biden and nomination of Kamala! swung the vote to Trump (with nearly votes to independents). JFC.
You are correct, yippee. Dumfukistan.
Rank Choice Voting. Allows lesser known parties/candidates an opportunity to break the uniparty. Get a referendum on your states ballot to force a vote on changing the voting system.
Trump said he’d end the US proxy war on Russia and he didn’t. He said he’d release the Epstein files and he didn’t. He said he’d avoid war and he didn’t. He twice did a sneak attack (during negotiations) on a country on the other side of the planet that posed us no risk and did nothing to us. The fact that he drove energy prices and interest rates through the roof is secondary to the fact that he’s wrought death and destruction for no reason other than to follow the orders of a tiny, distant parasitic country. Trump and the republicans need to be punished.
And the Oligarchs.
The new oligarchs are concentrating wealth as never seen before, and the commanding heights of digital reach.
Musk has shown a willingness to throw in with any sort of top-down, aggressive power. His ambition is so transformative, most of us, or any world we have known, have no place in it. He has bent the rules of the stock markets (with Zuckerberg, et al) to exclude any shared governance in massive corporations. Hence his move to Texas, which is building a financial system around oligarchy.
The solution is not to join with the Blue oligarch billionaires like Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett, Howard Schultz, Michael Bloomberg, George Soros, Reid Hoffman, etc.
They will continue to fight for an increase in corporate wealth. The Uniparty is in agreement on 80%+ of the issues, they get the media to focus on the 20%.
Which party do you see cutting the national debt?
Which party to you see cutting the war department budget and ending wars?
Which party do you see ending US support of Israel and complicity in its genocide?
Which party do you see allowing banks and insurance companies that fail to go out of business, instead of buying them out and propping them up?
Which party do you see putting corporate CEOs in jail when they break the law and people die, rather than just fining the company?
What party do you see putting Uniparty politicians in jail for insider trading, as politicians all grow richer while in office?
What party do you see prosecuting politicians involved in the Epstein crimes?
Great comment, the obvious answer to your “Which party do you see doing _______?”
Is ‘neither.’
Well said. I hope the Republicans never have a majority. Also, I hope a new party comes to power to break this stranglehold of Democrats and Republicans. The Uniparty needs to go.
Now watch the Democrats muck things up. There is really no alternative between these two crappy parties. The American people suffer.
When they had Governor Richard Ogilvie it was ok. Or maybe it was Oglesby.
What exactly were Taco’s solutions? Tariffs? How’s that been going? Deport them all? Businesses having a hard time finding workers. Better health care for less money? Has the current program really changed much? Costs going up though! Steal Venezuelan oil? The oil is for shit and located in unsecured areas. No American company wants it. Farmers might be making more money if the prices of diesel and fertilizer weren’t going up. Oh, and the world hates us and are taking their business elsewhere. Good luck getting cooperation when we really need it. And the $20 bizillion coming in future investments? Sorry, that’s not coming either. However, I hear we’ve got a killer ballroom shaping up. Maybe an arch? An over budget, behind schedule suck ass reflecting pool. You know what else is up? The national debt! And so much more. The suck just keeps coming.
In a medical emergency the first rule is stop the bleeding. Midterms. Next you clean this wound. The impeachments. Then you keep applying until you’ve disinfected it all. Only then can healing begin. Maybe we’ll be lucky to get out of this administration with just a scar. A reminder not to put idiots in charge.
Well, for half a century, all those lower real incomes allowed the people who made them to easily buy a home, but now with their record high income they are essentially locked out of home buying.
Give it time bro, give it time. Basic macroeconomics 101. It takes six to 12 months for major negative impacts to the main pillars of an economy to show in the broader economy. The hydrocarbon products shortage due to the Middle East strategic screwups by Trump that have occurred already won’t fully register in the broader economy until late winter early spring and if he does more strategic blunders(highly likely) to screw up the Middle East further it might be 10 years before the markets for these products return to pre-Iran attack levels. This has the potential to cause a worldwide depression.
Another impact that won’t be seen for some time is that the US is now seen as an unreliable business partner. Foreign industry will work to reduce their dependency on the US, removing US sourced products and services from their supply chain. This will take time to see and feel.
The AI bubble is about to get blown wide open by low cost Chinese open source AI. AI investment is currently the main pillar of the US economy. I cannot predict when this will happen but it will soon. You may say the US will ban them, good f’ing luck with that…
Brain drain impacts are gonna be huge but will take years to fully materialize. The racist, cruel US immigration policies are already having a big impact on recruiting top foreign talent.
Trump’s form of governing, an oligarchical kleptocracy is not good efficient capitalism, its inefficient. Well functioning and regulated capitalism spawns competition between large sets of players by line of business and in turn drives innovation, brings costs down, and increases worldwide market share. These results are also slow to materialize.
Trump is a chaos agent causing the business climate to be less predictable. Most business sectors R&D and capex spending outside of the AI industry in the US are stagnant or in decline until we return to a more stable business environment…again these impacts take time to be seen in the broader economy.
All this enables the alpha predators to swoop in on the weakened economy and politics.
“ I realize there are swaths of people worse off but in general that’s not what I see and it’s not what I know in my personal circle.”
May you rot in hell with your head in the sand.
I guess if you and yours are fine, the rest of us can suck eggs
One can only hope. Don’t put it past taco and his proud boys to either interfere with the elections and/or pull off another January 6th “event” based on the outcome.