Every year, the BLS makes major adjustments to the data then does not revise history. The charade puts a constant spectacle on monthly job reports. This month let’s start with revisions. 
Today the BLS reported jobs rose by 353,000 in January but employment fell by 31,000. Revisions are massive so I will cover them first then do my normal jobs report shortly.
BLS Revisions
Effective with data for January 2024, updated population estimates were incorporated into the household survey. Population estimates for the household survey are developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. Each year, the Census Bureau updates the estimates to reflect new information and assumptions about the growth of the population since the population base year, typically the last decennial census. The change in population reflected in the new estimates results from adjustments for net international migration, updated vital statistics, and improvements in estimation methodology. In accordance with usual practice, BLS will not revise the official household survey estimates for December 2023 and earlier months.
The adjustments decreased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population in December by 625,000, the civilian labor force by 299,000, employment by 270,000, and unemployment by 28,000. The number of people not in the labor force decreased by 326,000. The total unemployment rate, employment-population ratio, and labor force participation rate were unaffected.
Data users are cautioned that these annual population adjustments can affect the comparability of household data series over time.
Let’s start with that last sentence. For January of 2023, the BLS revised jobs lover by 234,000. Yet, the as revised monthly change was +10,000. This implies a huge negative revision to December of 2022 that we do not see.
For 2023, the BLS revised jobs significantly lower for the first half of the year but tapering off towards December. The result was a huge month-over-month upward revision to December from +216,000 to +333,000.
Meanwhile, the BLS also tells us (next chart) that employment in December fell by 270,000.
Employment Revisions to December 2023
Whereas the BLS revised Jobs for December by +333,000 (previous chart), the BLS revised employment for December by -270,000.
Adjusted for population changes, the actual reported impact to employment in January of 2024 was -31,000 rather than the negative cumulative change of -270,000.
Smoothing this all out in one big bang, we see jobs up by 353,000 in January with employment down by 31,000.
The way the BLS handles the data in one big bang makes year over year comparisons bogus.
Massive Ongoing Discrepancy
The massive discrepancy between jobs and employment continues. Revisions make it worse but due to reporting practices we cannot see actual month-by-month totals.
However, data continues to suggest the discrepancy is very suggestive of people working extra part time jobs to make ends meet or to fill spots by boomer retirements.
Quits Tell the Real Story
On January 30, I commented Job Openings Rise in December But Quits Tell the Real Story
I will cover the as reported data in my next post. Here’s a teaser. Full time employment is below the level in February of 2023!
I just don’t see a valid justification for the FED to cut interest rates with the economic figures we are seeing.
Also keep in mind that any cuts as the election gets closer are going to look like the FED is trying to influence the election. One or more cuts would benefit Biden. Trump will not be happy about this and will certainly go on a rant tearing into the FED.
Hence the “Amazing Job Numbers” which offer up that justification. Also why it will more than likely occur. They don’t care about Trump or anyone else ranting. The MSM are useful idiots, as are the talking heads in Washington. Independent Media will have the coverage, but those who listen to them, already know this BS and it doesn’t help swing that needle.
Controlling messaging is so crucial for Biden Inc.
ChatGPT
Since the year 1900, several presidents have experienced a negative stock market in the fourth year of their administration. Here’s a list of those presidents:
1. William Howard Taft (1912): The fourth year of Taft’s administration saw a negative stock market performance amidst economic uncertainty, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining by about 3%.
2. Herbert Hoover (1932): As mentioned earlier, the fourth year of Hoover’s administration saw significant declines in the stock market due to the Great Depression, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping around 23%.
3. Franklin D. Roosevelt (1940): The fourth year of FDR’s administration saw a decline in the stock market due to concerns surrounding World War II, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping around 10%.
4. George W. Bush (2008): As previously mentioned, the fourth year of Bush’s administration saw substantial market declines due to the financial crisis, with the S&P 500 index dropping around 38%.
I don’t think Biden is going to join this list in 2024.
Are people simply mad bc they have to work for a living?
needing two jobs or having to work more than 40 hours just to meet the necessities is worthy of being mad. A modern economy shouldn’t need you to work 60-80s hours a week just for food, rent, shelter, medical and car.
Very interesting. Mish, I have deep experience with government economic data, and hope you will continue to focus on this.
Since 1948, the change in U-3 in the second quarter of a presidential election year has been an amazingly reliable predictor of the November results. (Note: The indicator says little or nothing about the victory margin unless the Q2 change is big or there was no change at all. And it applies only to the popular vote.)
The only times the indicator did not work were in 1956, when Eisenhower was re-elected in spite of a small rise in U-3 between March and June of that year, and in 2012, when Obama won in spite of an equally small rise.
1956 is explained by U-3 having no trend that year, and 2012 is explained by a BLS revision in its seasonal adjustment methodology that made the fall of 2011 look better than it actually was and made the spring of ’12 look worse than it actually was. I remember Romney making the economy an issue that year, which I think was based on the indicator, and having it fall flat because the methodology threw a head fake.
You cannot write too much about this for me, as long as you focus on the data and the methodology. I doubt I can ever be convinced that BLS makes changes for political reasons, given their internal procedures. But the data aren’t always correct, nor are they always consistent.
Keep looking!
Mish, you can slice & dice & revise & transpose all you want, but 353K jobs is just stellar. Like DANG!
@ 3.7%, you’re creating jobs at the margins anyways. And it doesn’t matter, for now, if most of the jobs are G-jobs. Until Uncle Sam gets religion in terms of its deficit spending, let’s not hold our breath thinking the labor market is about to rollover.
Let’s go see what the STUPID CME FFR watch says. Oh, hell! It’s just collapsed 18%, down from 38% to 20% for a March rate decrease.
353K new jobs, but fewer employed. Something’s the matter. Not political manipulation, because I don’t think BLS does that. But I am definitely wondering about the methodology. I wonder if their household survey suffers from the same non-responsiveness that has degraded the veracity of political polling.
Or boomers are starting to mass retire which was always expected…
Seriously . . . does anybody with a Brain believe this Crap . . . The Problem is Nobody’s got the guts the call the Government out !!!
The masses don’t understand anything anywhere . . . God Help US.
Have fun staying poor. Mush has been calling for a recession for the last billion years. In the meantime those of us who stayed invested got rich.
This is like the bad hollywood movie whereby the bad guy is shot 5 times and everyone is amazed he’s still standing, then falls over dead. And then everyone can’t figure out why he’s dead.
Government data is garbage.
Unless it fits our recession narrative!
The economy is so good that even deep red state of Kansas wants all those immigrants everyone keeps hating on….
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/the-american-city-with-a-message-for-migrants-we-want-you-69ef7049
I think it’s going to be a cakewalk for Biden in 2024.
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/it-is-a-whopper-cnbcs-rick-santelli-stunned-by-july-jobs-report-that-more-than-doubled-expectations-2/
Lol. Even the anti Biden haters at CNBC are confounded and stunned.
Keep dreaming about the recession Biden haters.
I don’t see what the issue is working two jobs. I’ve been working two jobs practically my entire life. Everyone should find a second job or learn a new skill for a side hustle if they want more income. It also improves mental health. Nothing like learning something, perfecting the skill and making money off it.
Lol. This is something the haters would not understand. They blame Biden for their lot in life
What’s not to hate?
I don’t blame Biden for my lot in life. I take meaningful credit for my lot in life.
I do blame Biden for trillion dollar deficits, illegal vaccine mandates, an Afghanistan disaster, the Ukrainian money furnace,illegal censorship of American citizens, idiotic regulation, the border situation, using the federal government as a political weapon, running a crime family, and the slowly escalating war in the Mideast.
But other than that he’s great as long as you keep an eye on him around junior high aged girls.
And lest you be confused, I’m not a team red guy who likes the orange idiot. Biden is just that vile.
[FJB]!!!
Not a big fan of the orange haired guy either, but a 2nd term for him will be epic! I’d love to see him wipe out the 7th floor of the FBI & whatever floors are teh equivalent of the DOJ.
He might also wipe out the USA and declare himself president (dictator) for life. But nothing much to worry about with that stated intention, is there?
You could blame every president before him for those things too. This is why your perspective is bad.
Interesting, other than perhaps covid deficits what applied to every other president? I mean I don’t recall stories about illegal vaccine mandates, illegal mass censorship or, the Ukraine money furnace with any other presidency. Perhaps elaborate, and illuminate my perspective.
Every president has their share of dead albatrosses hanging on their necks. How about GWB’s illegal Afghanistan and Iraq wars that not only cost us over $2 trillion but also changed the course of history across the world? Almost every modern president has run up the deficit. All politicians are criminals to one degree or another.
Wake up and smell the coffee, as Ann Landers used to write.
Here’s a story you might find interesting:
——-
30 Things Joe Biden Did as President You Might Have Missed
Drone armies, expanded overtime pay and over-the-counter birth control pills are just some of the new things Biden has ushered in as president that you might not have heard about.
By POLITICO MAGAZINE
02/02/2024 05:00 AM EST
Joe Biden has been president now for three years, and you might think you’ve heard everything there is to know about his presidency.
You probably haven’t.
Most of the work of government doesn’t go viral on social media or become fodder for TV talking heads. Every president’s administration makes changes both significant and trivial that largely escape the public’s attention — yet many have long-lasting impact.
So we asked POLITICO’s newsroom, including the reporters who track the minutiae of government policy, to tell us about the major but under-the-radar changes made so far during Biden’s tenure that most of us might have missed. And there was a lot, from building drone armies to making birth control pills available in drug stores to lowering overdraft fees and loosening restrictions on marijuana. His administration even made a big decision on the colors for Air Force One, the president’s official aircraft.
Here’s what they said. (And if you’re curious, here’s a similar list we compiled for Donald Trump’s presidency).
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/02/joe-biden-30-policy-things-you-might-have-missed-00139046
To attempt some objectivity (or at least balance) here, Politico is very much a partisan operation, just as there are partisan right-wing blogs.
I think most people who work two jobs do that because they have to and not because they want to. If people maintain their standard of living by working more total hours, they are not generally going to feel too good about it.
The last two months were revised UP not Down but UP by 126,000
Something of note so many of the new jobs are in Healthcare and Social Services..
Are new healthcare jobs mostly Doctors and Plastic Surgeons?
Thats in line with an aging population. Demographics drive the economy.
Reminds me of countries that declare the winning presidential candidate had 100% of the votes
Bidenomics = Data Chinafication
How many people are working multiple jobs? I read that hours worked per job, fell…
The # of hours worked is going to continue to decline due to all the new laws in 2024 for mandatory paid time off and increase in hourly wages. Employers are laying off and cutting hours.
Keep dreaming. There is another tech jobs boom underway because of AI. The have nots will wonder how the haves use AI to do their job and still get paid while they toil for pennies.
Have lessses. America has haves and have lesses for the most part.
You can keep thinking that but isn’t true. Go travel in haves zip codes and check it out. Maybe just maybe the key to improving is to choose differently and then act on those choices. There is a way to a better life even in 2024 in America.
USA creates an average of ~200,000 jobs/month over the year. The preponderance of jobs created are less than 30 hours/week to avoid benefits and Obamacare sanctions. Employees need two such jobs to make the payments on the camper trailer or pup tent, student loan, income taxes, cell phone, and credit card debt.
That talking point is over 10 years old Obama has been out of Office since 2016
Also according to CPI healthcare prices fell 34% and for the first time the government can negotiate the prices for drugs covered under the Medicare part D plan?
Nick, please tell this to the healthcare insurance brokers my company works with. They definitely haven’t heard that costs are down, I can tell you that!!
This is BULLSHIT. They did NOT fall 34% and in MOST/ALL CASES went UP.
Stop repeating utter bullshit FED “data”
Yes according to Wolf Street.com which is mirror image of this site, healthcare prices did fall NOT 34% but 37%
ultimately a 37% collapse in the health insurance CPI in 12 months through September, that took the health insurance CPI back to where it had been in August 2018, even though health insurance expenses have skyrocketed
Tell my dentist that his fees should have dropped 34%.
Can you believe any Numbers pumped out
by Umcle Joes Administration
they only have a 5th grade education level
in MATH
Around here we just believe the bad ones in the hope our recession predictions eventually pan out.
Yes. It is like a dream that almost feels too good to be true. Then you wake up to a wet bed. The wet dream of every anti-Biden fanatic is a recession and bad economy. It hasn’t happen and won’t. I predict the jobs numbers keep improving and the Fed doesn’t even have to lower rates.