There’s lots of meaningless chatter today about job openings. However, actions speak louder than openings. 
Three Key Ideas
- Quits and hires are actual events (within the bounds of BLS accuracy).
- Hires and separations (layoffs and quits) are hard data, in contrast to openings that may not be real.
- Quits reflect the propensity to job hop looking for better offers but also retirement. Quits have fallen to pre-pandemic levels.
Headlines that Miss the Key Idea
Compare the Bloomberg headline “Job Openings Rise to Highest in Three months.”
So what? The openings blip does not even register on the lead chart and it’s well into the realm of normal noise.
Openings Changed Little
According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey News Release “The number of job openings changed little at 9.0 million on the last business day of December. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively.”
Job Listings Abound, but Many Are Fake
Openings are down from a record 11.755 million to a still very elevated 9.026 million.
The Wall Street Journal reports Job Listings Abound, but Many Are Fake
A mystery permeates the job market: You apply for a job and hear nothing, but the ad stays online for months. If you inquire, the company tells you it isn’t really hiring.
Not all job ads are attached to actual jobs, it turns out.
Too many analysts rely on job openings as a sign of labor market strength. That WSJ article was from March of 2023. It’s undoubtedly still true.
Job Quits by Sector in Thousands
Quits in the four big drivers of job growth, Leisure and hospitality, Accommodation and Food Service, education and Health Services, and Retail Trade are all back to pre-pandemic levels.
Labor Leverage Ratio
The Labor Leverage Ratio (LLR) is the number of quits divided by the number of discharges, firings, and layoffs initiated by employers.
The BLS notes “the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.” The LLR is a refinement to the quits rate.
There is no cost to posting ghost jobs. And the benefits are obvious: Employers can placate overworked employees, keep them motivated, give an impression of growth, and just in case.
Openings are not real. Quits and the Labor Leverage Ratio provide a much more compelling story.
Tax Cuts, Not Bidenomics Explains Surge in Consumer Spending in 2023
On January 1, 2023, 38 states had noteworthy tax changes. 37 of the changes put extra money in people’s pockets. Here’s the result in pictures.
In case you are wondering about the strength of the economy please see Tax Cuts, Not Bidenomics Explains Surge in Consumer Spending in 2023
On January 1, 2023, 38 states had noteworthy tax changes. 37 of the changes put extra money in people’s pockets.
On January 25, I noted 4th Quarter GDP Blows Past Consensus, Up a Strong 3.3 Percent
Moral of the Story
If you tax less, people will spend more.
Now, if Congress can just do something about massive deficit spending and $34 trillion in debt.
Debt Soaring Out of Sight
GDP is fueled by both consumer debt and government debt. Regarding government debt, Republicans are in on the deal.
For example, The GOP Supports a Child Tax Credit Boost and Affordable Housing Expansion
Without passing anything but continuing resolutions, we went from a House Speake Kevin McCarthy’s proposal of $1.471 trillion bill to Mike Johnson’s $1.66 trillion bill that does not include, Ukraine, Israel, or the US border with Mexico.
And not only did consumers spend their tax cuts, they also racked up credit card debt.
Consumer Credit Hits Record $5 Trillion
For discussion, please see Retail Sales Surge 0.6 Percent, Beating Economist’s Expectations
Consumers keep spending more and more, and much of that spending is online.
Also see How Did Covid Change Your Propensity to Buy Things Online?
So, if you were at all inclined to think Bidenomics is to credit, please think again.
So where does this all end? I’ve read about the dangers of the US national debt spiralling out of control since 2008, yet here we are. The sky hasn’t fallen! Any economist with a good track record out there, who can tell us how/when this will all end? Or do I need to ask Chat GPT?
I’ve recently tapped unknown resource for workers
steady supply of skilled and unskilled workers needing jobs
I pay for skill and use $15 min. wage for all others
allows us to get few more when needed and keep lean when don’t
I can’t afford to work.
no skills – get it taker
1. Jolts seems a little less noisy than some, but still one months data is not real meaningful.
2. All the data seem to confirm the conclusion of a very gradual reduction in tightness of the labor market.
3. This is generally a pretty positive report.
? Are we going to fall off a cliff soon? If so, it not obvious what would cause it?
Short life insurance companies, long funeral homes. The CDC won’t even publish excess deaths like they did during the pandemic. I guess they got everyone vaccinated that didn’t refuse the jab, and they don’t want us to know about excess deaths anymore.
Are we STILL carrying on about that? Aren’t there new conspiracies?
Please don’t just slam me, but provide counter facts and arguments.
The CDC death safety signal triggered shortly after release of the Covid shots and the CDC hid that information for 2 years. The shots have not been withdrawn as being unsafe, so there is ample reason to carry on about that. The CDC is still corrupt and nothing is being done about it. The current director Mandy Cohen, was involved in getting Remdesivir approved for hospital use. Antiviral drugs are contraindicated 72 hours after active infection. Patients were hospitalized well after 72 hours. Remdesivir failed on safety testing for Ebola, as well. There was no medical reason to use Remdesivir for Covid. Explain why it was used when it was of no benefit to the patient and only caused harm. It contributed to patient deaths.
Read the articles from Naturalnews.com. There are MULTIPLE countries that used the same vaccine as in the US and they are reporting excess deaths and health problems. There are also MULTIPLE CEO’s from Insurance companies that are publicly discussing excess deaths – up to 40%.
Death statistics are hard to find. This info is not very transparent as it should be. Colorado is right. Maybe Norbert can show us the link for total deaths by year. It would be helpful.
January openings number to be reported in February should be up since December is a relatively slow hiring time with holidays and year end bonuses.
So a Jimmy Dore video from 1/27/2024 which contained mostly a presentation by Dr. John Campbell about country-by-country excess deaths in 2022 and 2023 per purely/only life/death stats NO REASONS STATED had a part at the end about the reason(s) that all the poor migrants are being brought in. Kurt Metzger, Dore’s sidekick, speculated that it was about importing people who would not know what they are worth/should be paid. YT subsequently removed the video.
Regarding the fake “job ads”, this is now a commonly used tactic of corporations to hire someone on a H1-B visa at a below-market wage. They must first prove that they have been unable to find and hire a suitable person domestically.
Corporate ethics is an oxymoron.
A manager of mine told me that 15 years ago.
The TBTF Bank that I used to work for was doing it 20+ years ago.
And yet still no recession. Darn!
Soon! Any moment now! Watch out!
Quits have fallen due to economic reality reasserting? I’m still working mondo hours at age 62…are youngsters waiting for me to die and get out of the way?? Dunno’, but in my industry the legacy knowledge hasn’t filtered down to “Generation Influencer”.
Retired end of last year. Im 56. I dont want to work anymore for today’s businesses and the punks that run them. Why would I? I guess Im a quit.
I was laid off in Q3 of 2019, regrouped, created new resume, etc and started back in job market in 2020….good timing huh? But as I networked and attended job fairs, etc, I discovered that true, most of job postings are not viable options…. there may already be someone waiting to take it at the company, but needs to be posted, and companies use this data to see how many respondents they get for types/grades of positions, salaries, etc…. a lot of job postings are really marketing data for companies. Anyway, I landed on my feet in June and learned a lot about the industry and HR!