So you are saying the number of cars on the roads has to go down, one way or another? I agree.
How do you suggest to trade that?
nanomatrix
1 year ago
Coal powered EVs.
Looks Green on paper…
nkirby
1 year ago
An important, and often overlooked item, is that the roads in the US are paid for by a tax on gasoline. As electric cars require no gasoline, the tax that supports roads can no longer be levied as part of gasoline purchases. Those funds need to come from somewhere.
For states, a tax on registration could be effective (think $1000 registration fee), yet the feds pay a lot for roads (and this mostly comes from the tax on fuel) ; will the feds inflict a nationwide electric vehicle registration tax to support roads nationwide? will more roads become toll roads?
Webej
1 year ago
In the EU, hydrogen has become the magic elixir to smooth over all objections.
In the seventies they had city buses that worked on hydrogen, touted as the future, but 50 years later it just has not caught on. Hmmm.
It would be great if government limited itself to encouraging innovation.
One thing I have learned dealing with petty bureaucrats: Never ask for permission or funding, just deploy what people consider useful, and they will never make good on their objections and threats. People will buy electric cars when it makes sense.
GruesomeHarvest
1 year ago
Mish, According to this article you are behind the times.
These bans are on new car sales, not operation of existing vehicles. Even if there was a ban on new petrol car sales tomorrow, many of today’s petrol vehicle would be on the road for 15+ years.
That depends. A state like CA is completely capable of making it hard on owners of combustion engines to the point you would be better off getting rid of it. Huge taxes, huge gas prices etc. I’m not saying it would work i’m saying they might try something like that.
3icestation
1 year ago
With half of USA not being able to gather up enough funds to pay off the credit card dept they owe, and plus couple hundred grand each in national debt each. How many have went to a dealership and have bought a new vehicle, or will ever buy vehicle with less the ten years old ever, in there life span.
ohno
1 year ago
What a bunch of stupid jackasses! Even a blue collar simpleton like myself can clearly see this disaster from several miles away. Im sick and tired of these clowns, esp going into old age, with the crap they are trying to do. One things for sure, being from Kansas I think it’s a priority we vote out our democrat governor asap. The more liberals that get elected the more she’ll go right along with them with all their transgender, lockdowns, taxed to death etc bs. This is all just surreal to me having grown up in the 80’s. Everyday it’s like gee I wonder what disaster is next. Of course, the way things are going with Russia etc we might not have to worry about any of it which also would be zero surprise.
Goodness! If they can’t convince someone from Kansas how will they sway someone from Missouri?
Christoball
1 year ago
After loosing back to back World Wars the Germans will do anything to stay relevant and assuage their guilt for past sins. After loosing back to back regional wars and loosing various proxy wars, the US is trying to catch up with the Germans on the sympathetic character gambit. We can only wish them luck.
MarkraD
1 year ago
For the “Hard to find/China/rare Earth debate”, it’s no longer relevant, google iron nitride and/or “Niron Magnetics”.
The science behind EV’s is exploding, reminiscent of Moore’s law in computers.
30 years ago, no one would have known we’d all have pc’s connected anywhere to the internet in the palms of our hands.
I wager we see equal future surprises in EV’s, not because of government mandates, but because of technology, there are just too many entities working on every aspect of R&D in everything from batteries to motors.
6 months ago all talk was on China’s rare Earth monopoly, in six months it will be our own ingenuity having the technology to mass produce iron nitride for half the price of Neodymium at over twice the strength.
We can actually have our PCs on our wrist these days. The large screen version is in our palms.
To your point, we do not know where tech will be in 10 years.
StukiMoi
1 year ago
“Ironically, the Greens backed this policy.”
“Thiiiingzzzz are alwayyyyys diiiiiiiferent thiiiiiiis tiiiiiime” in the underdeveloped minds of perennial child brains with no more logical acuity than chipmunks. When you are categorically incapable of abstracting beyond one-two-many, every little trifle detail, “of course” has to be a spacial case…..
MPO45v2
1 year ago
Some in Congress and various states are pushing 4 day work weeks. Some school districts have moved to 4 day school weeks (not enough teachers/bus drivers). Remote work (for the skilled elite) is here to stay. All of these activities are growing due to lack of labor.
The real problem that few talk about is the deterioration of the labor force to maintain roads, bridges, airports, sea ports, etc. There is a shortage of 540,000 construction workers right now and nothing being done to fix it so it won’t matter if there are EVs or ICE cars on the road because deteriorating roads, ports, and bridges will make it impossible to move goods/humans and people will be better off working from home or minimum commute. This problem isn’t unique to construction, it is a problem everywhere from police officers to doctors, engineers to lawyers, janitors to CPAs and not just the US but the entire western world.
Biden or Desantis or whomever can pass whatever crazy legislation they want and it won’t matter because there won’t be enough people to enable or enforce or execute that legislation. And if by some chance, Congress actually decides to act today to fix the problem, it is too late because it will take too long to train replacements so be ready to welcome your future third world lifestyle. Everyone will do more with much less.
I think perhaps it’s the land of OR. Things are truly astounding here.
KidHorn
1 year ago
The government won’t need to do anything to phase out electric cars by 2035. It will happen without them. In 5 years, the majority of new cars will be electric. Using batteries that don’t use rare earths. The batteries already exist and are being put in new cars. Gas stations will be closing down and eventually go away completely. Getting gas will become expensive and inconvenient.
There will always be some fuel vehicles for special purposes. So it will never completely go away. But it will become rarely used.
5 years is WAY too optimistic. EV’s only made up about 6% of new car sales in 2022 up from about 4% in 2021. Yes it rose by 50% from the prior year but in relation to total car sales it’s still very low. Maybe in the 2030-2035 time frame it will reach 50% if the materials and technologies can be not only found but also large scale mass production car plants have to be built (or refurbed from ICE vehicles).
That’s just the USA. Now consider the rest of the world and it seems even more unlikely to reach 50% world wide anytime soon.
EV sales were low in the US because of low supply. The demand is there and can be met from China. Try to buy an EV. If you can find one, the prices are way above MSRP. In China sales are projected to skyrocket.
China is likely going to phase out ICE vehicles completely with the next few years. China is leading the world right now. Other countries are going to follow their lead. They’ll be able to produce EVs for far less than other countries can make ICE vehicles. Plus they’ll be cheaper to operate and have much better performance.
Incidentally China sold 26 million cars last year with demand ramping up by 3% overall.
10 million cars by 2025 isn’t even 50% of the Chinese market which will be close to 30 million cars by 2025. So no, they will not be able to meet the demand here and in Europe and elsewhere since they won’t even meet their own countries demand.
EVs are coming and they will be appropriate for many people who seldom or never escape the city. But there are huge problems even if we assume adequate supplies of Lithium and Nickel.
Did you extrapolate that 1-year, 50% rise ahead? Like, 2021:4% 2022:6% 2023:9% 2024:13.5% 2025:20% 2026:30% 2027:45% 2028:70%.
OK, that’s a bogus extrapolation in multiple ways, but the argument that “X is really small so X will not be big” applies only in a stable environment. Not in an Oklahoma Land Rush environment.
When I feel like the world is solidly in that hand basket, I pull out my list of likely/possible OklaLandRush area/sectors. It’s a long list.
Really? If that’s so, where can I buy one? Dealer lots are loaded with ICE vehicles. Their EVs sell immediately at over MSRP.
An it costs less over the lifetime of the car. And production costs are about to go way down. In China you can buy an EV for under $6k USD. They’re 2 seaters and have maybe 100 miles of range, but that’s sufficient for half the world.
You may jest, but I have an original Krupps burr-grinder Mr. Fusion in my cupboard.
HippyDippy
1 year ago
I’d say bring back the steam engine car, and make sure you use coal to heat the water! Also, if governments really wanted to cut back on the dreaded (neutral) CO2, maybe they should clean up their own act, rather than trying to push their agendas on real people. Government is the biggest polluter. And let’s not forget to thank the EPA for creating the toxic sludge via their regulations. Real pollution. Not the fake CO2 pollution. I’m still upset that the NY Times lied about NY city being underwater by 2012. Yet, the slaves still buy their b.s.. Anything to keep from thinking for themselves and being a real man/woman.
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For states, a tax on registration could be effective (think $1000 registration fee), yet the feds pay a lot for roads (and this mostly comes from the tax on fuel) ; will the feds inflict a nationwide electric vehicle registration tax to support roads nationwide? will more roads become toll roads?