Biden’s Energy Policy Mandates Cause Severe Shortage of Electrical Steel and Transformers

Electrical Steel Q&A

Q: What is Electrical Steel 
A: Electrical steel is specialty steel used in the cores of electromagnetic devices such as motors, generators, and transformers because it reduces power loss. [Via Wikipedia]

For more on electrical steel, please consider Electrical Steel: The heart of an Electric Motor.

Electrical steel is a soft magnetic material. In such materials an external magnetic field generates a magnetic flux density that is many times higher than would be the case in air. In simple terms, the magnetic field is strengthened by the soft magnetic materials. Flux density is key to the torque of an electric motor.

For conventional electric motors, such as those used in elevators or machine tools, the frequency is 50 hertz. By contrast, high-speed motors for electric and hybrid cars have frequencies of more than 400 hertz. So the goals for electrical steel developers are clear: Electric cars need soft magnetic materials with high flux density and minimal core losses at high frequencies. 

Paper-Thin Steel Needed to Power Electric Cars Is in Short Supply

The Wall Street Journal reports The Paper-Thin Steel Needed to Power Electric Cars Is in Short Supply

Large U.S. steelmakers are ramping up production of a hard-to-make, paper-thin steel to capture a fast-growing market for a material critical to powering electric vehicles.

Such electrical steel, which accounts for about 1% of all the steel produced annually in the world, already is in short supply for electric vehicles, executives said. Companies expect demand to accelerate faster than production as EV volumes expand in the coming years.

It’s in limited supply and with very long lead times. Sometimes 50 or 52 weeks,” said Hale Foote, owner of Scandic Springs Inc., a San Leandro, Calif., company that uses high-grade electrical steel to make parts for scientific measurement devices.

US Steel Announcement

US Steel made that announcement on March 23, but it will not be enough.

Electric Steel Dilemma & Its Impact on Motor Vendors

In a July 2022 article, Automation reported Electric Steel Dilemma & Its Impact on Motor Vendors

Electric steel is used heavily in the manufacturing of electric motors. The material is key to producing the electromagnetic field used to turn the rotor. Without the electromagnetic properties associated with this iron alloy, the performance of electric motors would be substantially compromised.

As electric vehicle production continues to grow, so does the associated demand for the electric steel used in the motors to power them. Resultingly, the bargaining power between commercial/industrial electric motor vendors and their steel suppliers is becoming increasingly undermined. As this trend progresses, it will impact vendors’ ability to secure the electric steel necessary for production, resulting in longer lead times, and higher prices for customers.

Electrical Steel Shortages and Solutions 

Also from 2022 please consider the Horizon Technology article Electrical Steel Shortages and Solutions.

 “Producers have been notified that they will be on allocation, essentially rationing, for electrical steel for all of (2022), with most expecting to get only 80% to 90% of purchase requirements. The impact of the electrical steel shortage could potentially be as damaging to the global economy in 2022 and 2023 as the semiconductor shortage (was in 2021).”

That’s also from 2022. Here is another, more current, article regarding transformers.

Massive Power Transformer Shortage

On March 11, 2023, NewScientist reported a Massive Power Transformer Shortage is Wreaking Havoc in the US.

A nationwide shortage of power grid transformers is causing delays across the US for everything from infrastructure for electric vehicles to new homes

Across the US, new houses sit unfinished – construction can’t be completed until they are connected to the electricity grid. Utility companies worry about how quickly they can restore power after damage caused by hurricanes and other natural disasters. And nationwide efforts to modernize ageing electrical grids face delays of months or even years.

All this is happening because of a national shortage of electrical distribution transformers. These devices convert the high-voltage electricity from power lines into lower voltages suitable for homes and businesses, … [Rest is Paywalled]

Electrical Steel Sources and Pricing

Returning to the Wall Street Journal …

More than 80% of the electrical steel produced comes from China, Japan and South Korea, all countries that are subject to U.S. tariffs or quotas on steel imports, industry analysts said.

The slow, exacting process required to melt, cast and roll electrical steel, which can be less than a quarter of a millimeter thick for the highest grade, holds down production volumes and dissuades many steel companies from making it, executives said.

High-grade electrical steel used in electric-car motors sells for $2,400 to $2,800 a ton, compared with about $1,100 for commodity-type hot-rolled sheet steel, according to analysts. 

“We’re going to go through shortages,” said Lourenco Goncalves, chief executive of Cleveland-Cliffs. “Shortages generate higher prices.

In North America, which already relies on imports of electrical steel, demand for high-grade electrical steel is expected to reach nearly 780,000 tons by the end of the decade.

Steel-industry executives said that creating more domestic capacity to make electrical steel for vehicles will likely take years, as steel companies acquire equipment and become proficient at the exacting production process.

No Wild Bets

Here’s an interesting comment by Lourenco Goncalves, CEO of Cleveland-Cliffs: 

“I’m not going to make a wild bet on more until I have certainty about the pace of electrification.” 

Damn the Inflation, Full Speed Ahead

Meanwhile, Biden’s energy policy can easily be summed up in meme phrases. 

  • Damn the Inflation, Full Speed Ahead
  • What, Me Worry? 
  • The world will end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change. 

On March 22, 2022, I commented Biden Doing Everything Possible to Drive Up the Price of Oil, Some of It’s Illegal

On November 30, 2022, I commented The EU is Very Worried About Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)

On December 3, 2022, I commented Damn That Wind, It’s Not Listening to Biden or AOC

On February 7, 2023, I commented Biden Gives a Well-Delivered SOTU Speech Begging for More Inflation and Tax Hikes

On January 16, 2023, I commented “America First”, Biden and Trump Both Guilty of Sponsoring Inflation

President Biden under guise of “Build Back Better”, is out-Trumping Trump on “America First”.

The Inflation Reduction Act has nothing at all to do with reducing inflation. Rather it’s a subsidy scheme illegal under WTO rules. 

Don’t Worry, It Will Only Cost $131 Trillion to Address Climate Change

But all of the above is OK because It Will Only Cost $131 Trillion to Address Climate Change

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
“…and then there are the things we don’t know we don’t know.”
While doing some web research on “unforeseen consequences” I came across a paper by John Locke from 1691.
It is entitled – “Some Considerations of the Consequences of the Lowering of Interest and the Raising the Value of Money”
Apparently the subject has been repeatedly discussed for some considerable amount of time.
You cannot make this stuff up.
The hurrier I go, the behinder I get.
.
Columbo
Columbo
1 year ago
  • Japan and the U.S. reached a deal that will make electric vehicles with metals processed in Japan eligible for tax incentives in the U.S.
Reported this morning by Briefing.com.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Columbo
Was that the same Hunter Biden?
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
What I predict is we won’t need the steel because the stuff we make with it will be made in Asia instead.
China is close to dominating the car industry because all the big battery manufactures are there. Their car companies will be able to make EVs far cheaper than elsewhere and their EV companies don’t have tens of billions of debt like the car companies in Japan, Europe and the US. Excluding Tesla. In 10 years, Tesla might be the only non Chinese car company.
PeterEV
PeterEV
1 year ago
We have to transition to alternative sources of energy.
We reached Peak Coal in 2013:
We may have reached Peak Oil in 2019 with a possible but lower peak predicted by Exxon for around 2032 (fourth graph down in following link):
Anything under the orange area is used for transportation fuel.
For Natural Gas, “[ed. Wiki quote:] One forecast is for natural gas demand to peak in 2035 “. The sixth graph down in the previous link has a peak around 2050. link to en.wikipedia.org It’s one of the reason for switching from gas stove and other gas appliances to electricity based appliances.
Here’s another two links from BP:
We’re transitioning and that is causing growing pains.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  PeterEV
“We have to transition to alternative sources of energy.”
“We” don’t have to do anything.
IF “You” run out of coal, you can find a substitute. Ditto everyone else. No dude named “We” needed.
Webej
Webej
1 year ago
The slow, exacting process … holds down production volumes and dissuades many steel companies from making it, executives said.
If this were true, there would also be a shortage of everything that is exacting to produce.
If the price is high enough, competition and volume will appear, albeit with some delay.
It is normal for supply to catch up to demand if demand is ramping up, but trends are usually somewhat predictable.
I mean, we ramped up production of TV sets, computers, and cars starting from zero.
Is there something mandating domestic production or penalizing import volume (except for price-raising tariffs)?
Can’t it just be imported from Russia?
There seems to be some information missing about the exact bottle neck.
Matt3
Matt3
1 year ago
So we have policies that cause shortages and shortages that cause prices to rise – inflation. The answer we have is to raise interest rates to decrease demand.
We are insane!
vboring
vboring
1 year ago
It may also be interesting that wind and solar plants each use hundreds of transformers. Each 1.5MW wind turbine uses a transformer. Each block of solar panels in a plant uses a transformer.
300MW of coal or gas uses a handful of small transformers and 1-3 big ones. The same capacity of wind uses 200 transformers. Solar plants have different designs, but will typically use 300-1,000. Plus 1-3 big transformers.
46,000MW of wind and solar were installed in 2022. They somehow found tens of thousands of transformers while utilities begged for help.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  vboring
That makes perfect sense. Where do you think all the electrical steel went? It went into those wind and solar projects plus electrical cars (almost all of which are subsidized and thus can bid up price) and wasn’t available for utilities.
Going forward the idea is to make millions of EV cars a year (instead of thousands) and continue ramping up solar and wind generation which is going to require even MORE electrical steel by orders of magnitude. That’s essentially what the article is about.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
No problem.
If we have to we’ll just print the money we need.
vboring
vboring
1 year ago
More color on this subject from the NRECA – the trade group that represents the non-profit cooperative power companies in the US: link to cooperative.com
Efficiency standards are high. There is a plan to raise them.
Jack
Jack
1 year ago
For conventional electric motors, such as those used in elevators or machine tools, the frequency is 50 hertz.
50Hz for a lot of the world, however in North America, the standard is 60Hz.
However, does not change Mish’s message.
Mac Timred
Mac Timred
1 year ago
Transformers have extremely long lead times, and the number of companies that build transformers is extremely few. Transformers can be incredibly large and therefore very difficult to transport to needed locations once built.
If Biden energy policy is actually causing a transformer shortage already – they lose. This is where they meet the immovable object.
That news of a transformer shortage has not hit the WSJ or Bloomberg suggests the Biden Admin keeping a lid on it.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
1 year ago
Reply to  Mac Timred
Maybe because the newer class of transformers are superconductor liquid-nitrogen based.
MMusson
MMusson
1 year ago
Reply to  Mac Timred
40% to 60% of US steel is made from Russian pig iron. (The rest is made from recycled steel.) The shortage of high quality and specialty steels is just beginning. It will be a problem across the manufacturing spectrum.
prumbly
prumbly
1 year ago
Reply to  MMusson
So we can’t make transformers from Russian steel because of sanctions, but can’t we just buy transformers from China? Oh, wait…. we want to sanction them too.
What a shjt show.
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
1 year ago
It should be very obvious now the clean and green initiative is a fraud when the President creates self-contradictory policy that makes sourcing material needed to create the clean and green electric infrastructure and EV’s more difficult and costly.
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
1 year ago
Reply to  Six000mileyear
It will never be obvious to the average person.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  HippyDippy
Only to the elite

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