Biden’s Energy Policy Mandates Cause Severe Shortage of Electrical Steel and Transformers
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20 comments on Biden’s Energy Policy Mandates Cause Severe Shortage of Electrical Steel and Transformers
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20 Comments
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1 year ago
“…and then there are the things we don’t know we don’t know.”
While doing some web research on “unforeseen consequences” I came across a paper by John Locke from 1691.
It is entitled – “Some Considerations of the Consequences of the Lowering of Interest and the Raising the Value of Money”
Apparently the subject has been repeatedly discussed for some considerable amount of time.
You cannot make this stuff up.
The hurrier I go, the behinder I get.
.
1 year ago
- Japan and the U.S. reached a deal that will make electric vehicles with metals processed in Japan eligible for tax incentives in the U.S.
Reported this morning by Briefing.com.
1 year ago
Was that the same Hunter Biden?
1 year ago
What I predict is we won’t need the steel because the stuff we make with it will be made in Asia instead.
China is close to dominating the car industry because all the big battery manufactures are there. Their car companies will be able to make EVs far cheaper than elsewhere and their EV companies don’t have tens of billions of debt like the car companies in Japan, Europe and the US. Excluding Tesla. In 10 years, Tesla might be the only non Chinese car company.
1 year ago
We have to transition to alternative sources of energy.
We reached Peak Coal in 2013:
link to en.wikipedia.org
We may have reached Peak Oil in 2019 with a possible but lower peak predicted by Exxon for around 2032 (fourth graph down in following link):
link to corporate.exxonmobil.com
Anything under the orange area is used for transportation fuel.
For Natural Gas, “[ed. Wiki quote:] One forecast is for natural gas demand to peak in 2035 “. The sixth graph down in the previous link has a peak around 2050. link to en.wikipedia.org It’s one of the reason for switching from gas stove and other gas appliances to electricity based appliances.
Here’s another two links from BP:
link to bp.com
link to bp.com
We’re transitioning and that is causing growing pains.
1 year ago
“We have to transition to alternative sources of energy.”
“We” don’t have to do anything.
IF “You” run out of coal, you can find a substitute. Ditto everyone else. No dude named “We” needed.
1 year ago
If this were true, there would also be a shortage of everything that is exacting to produce.
If the price is high enough, competition and volume will appear, albeit with some delay.
It is normal for supply to catch up to demand if demand is ramping up, but trends are usually somewhat predictable.
I mean, we ramped up production of TV sets, computers, and cars starting from zero.
Is there something mandating domestic production or penalizing import volume (except for price-raising tariffs)?
Can’t it just be imported from Russia?
There seems to be some information missing about the exact bottle neck.
1 year ago
So we have policies that cause shortages and shortages that cause prices to rise – inflation. The answer we have is to raise interest rates to decrease demand.
We are insane!
1 year ago
It may also be interesting that wind and solar plants each use hundreds of transformers. Each 1.5MW wind turbine uses a transformer. Each block of solar panels in a plant uses a transformer.
300MW of coal or gas uses a handful of small transformers and 1-3 big ones. The same capacity of wind uses 200 transformers. Solar plants have different designs, but will typically use 300-1,000. Plus 1-3 big transformers.
46,000MW of wind and solar were installed in 2022. They somehow found tens of thousands of transformers while utilities begged for help.
1 year ago
That makes perfect sense. Where do you think all the electrical steel went? It went into those wind and solar projects plus electrical cars (almost all of which are subsidized and thus can bid up price) and wasn’t available for utilities.
Going forward the idea is to make millions of EV cars a year (instead of thousands) and continue ramping up solar and wind generation which is going to require even MORE electrical steel by orders of magnitude. That’s essentially what the article is about.
1 year ago
No problem.
If we have to we’ll just print the money we need.
1 year ago
More color on this subject from the NRECA – the trade group that represents the non-profit cooperative power companies in the US: link to cooperative.com
Efficiency standards are high. There is a plan to raise them.
1 year ago
For conventional electric motors, such as those used in elevators or machine tools, the frequency is 50 hertz.
50Hz for a lot of the world, however in North America, the standard is 60Hz.
However, does not change Mish’s message.
1 year ago
Transformers have extremely long lead times, and the number of companies that build transformers is extremely few. Transformers can be incredibly large and therefore very difficult to transport to needed locations once built.
If Biden energy policy is actually causing a transformer shortage already – they lose. This is where they meet the immovable object.
That news of a transformer shortage has not hit the WSJ or Bloomberg suggests the Biden Admin keeping a lid on it.
1 year ago
Maybe because the newer class of transformers are superconductor liquid-nitrogen based.
1 year ago
40% to 60% of US steel is made from Russian pig iron. (The rest is made from recycled steel.) The shortage of high quality and specialty steels is just beginning. It will be a problem across the manufacturing spectrum.
1 year ago
So we can’t make transformers from Russian steel because of sanctions, but can’t we just buy transformers from China? Oh, wait…. we want to sanction them too.
What a shjt show.
1 year ago
It should be very obvious now the clean and green initiative is a fraud when the President creates self-contradictory policy that makes sourcing material needed to create the clean and green electric infrastructure and EV’s more difficult and costly.
1 year ago
It will never be obvious to the average person.
1 year ago
Only to the elite