The Fed reports industrial production rose 0.2 percent in November, led by a 7.1 percent jump in motor vehicles and parts.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Synopsis
- In November, industrial production increased 0.2 percent, and manufacturing output rose 0.3 percent.
- The increase in manufacturing output was more than accounted for by a 7.1 percent bounce back in motor vehicles and parts production following the resolution of strikes at several major automakers.
- The index for manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts decreased 0.2 percent.
- The output of utilities moved down 0.4 percent, and the output of mines moved up 0.3 percent.
- Total industrial production in November was 0.4 percent below its year-earlier level.
- Capacity utilization moved up 0.1 percentage point to 78.8 percent in November, a rate that is 0.9 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2022) average.
Industrial Production Index
Industrial Production Index Details
- Manufacturing durable goods peaked at 129.8 in January of 2023. It is now 120.3, a decline of 7.3 percent.
- Motor vehicles peaked at 114.8 in August of 2023. It is now 105.9, a decline of 7.8 percent.
- Total manufacturing peaked in October of 2022 at 101.2. It is now 99.7, a decline of 1.5 percent.
- Industrial production peaked at 103.5 in September of 2022 at 103.5. It is now 102.7, a decline of 0.8 percent.
The overall numbers are buoyed by aircraft and parts, up nine consecutive months (first chart).
Industrial Production Year-Over-Year
Industrial Production Year-Over-Year Details
- Industrial production year-over-year is down 3 consecutive months.
- Manufacturing is down 9 consecutive months.
- Aircraft and parts is up 20 consecutive months holding everything together.
Industrial Production Index Since 1972
The Big Picture
- The Industrial Production index peaked at 104.1 in August of 2018. It is now 102.7, down 1.3 percent in the last five years.
- The Manufacturing Index peaked at 106.4 in December of 2007 at the onset of the Great Recession. Sixteen years later the index is 99.7, down 6.3 percent.
Who needs manufacturing when we can make $20 per hour flipping burgers at a McDonalds in California?
The Fed Pencils in 2-3 Rate Cuts in 2024, the Market Expects 4-5
On Wednesday, I noted The Fed Pencils in 2-3 Rate Cuts in 2024, the Market Expects 4-5
This was a very dovish flip and totally unwarranted by the data.
Huge Moves in the Yield Curve This Year, What’s Going On?
Also see Huge Moves in the Yield Curve This Year, What’s Going On?
Powell’s own statements regarding how long inflation may remain above target are not in line with it’s forecast. I will have more on this in a subsequent post.
Auto Surge, now that’s pretty funny! The only surge they will see is in Inventory, Layoffs, and cutbacks.
I have said it many times, and I will say I it again. Biden Inc. wants them to STOP producing GV’s, and to massively produce EV’s.
People don’t have the money, and especially at the current interest rates, to but any vehicles no matter an EV or GV. The people who do have the money to buy, don’t want EV’s and the GV’s they do want, are not available due to cutbacks to build the EV’s.
The Government wants to try to force the purchase of EV’s, but most can only afford a GV, so they will not buy, and the EV’s will sit, and become outdated in time.
As soon as the true cost for EV’s becomes apparent, with battery replacements and disposal cost, electricity charging cost (my neighbors bill went up to just over $1,000.00 a month, after they purchased 2 EV’s, and put a charger in the garage), and no more Government Subsidies and give away of other people’s Taxes, that should go to something like maybe EDUCATION? But I digress…
Our industrial production index since 1972 (in blue) looks like the Dow 2000 to 2009.
The woke in Oakland, Detroit and NY can bark as much as they want, but we are
facing a third front in Yemen. We are not trying to provoke Iran, but weakness
invite A-Symmetrical enemies. It’s a jungle out there. When they smell blood they attack. In order to have peace we must prepare for a war. We must expand our forces and our industrial capacity, paying high wages to high tech, engineers, technical support, police, FBI ==> an engine of growth. That’s what China and Putin are doing. Many economists and “experts” are against it. They us want stay between the Atlantic & the Pacific, to mind our own business. But the latest wars showed that without missiles, tanks, APC, gunners, D-9 and special forces…without them we can’t fight A-Symmetrical enemies with a navy and an air force.
Glad to see Mish being one of the few calling out this rate-cut hysteria for what it is:
Keeping the ponzi-scheme going. Luring in retail investors to suck up the last remaining pockets of wealth.
The sheer amount of market ‘commentaries’ of the financial media is just staggering.
All the usual talkingheads making contradiction after contradiction.
It’s propping up a failing market by anticipating rate-cuts.
Or more specifically, a return to the bygone era of zero percent interestrates and QE.
Cheering on more inequality, staggering levels of greed, a continuation of transfers of wealth and even more disgusting, deliberately wanting an even more dysfunctional residential real estate market. This is the stuff that brought out the pitchforks in the past.
And this how profoundly sick our society is at the moment.
But fear not, 2024 is around the corner to knock you off your socks with unimaginable levels of insanity.
The sheer amount of market commentaries doesn’t cover a wide breadth of society. The brain behind it is actually quite concentrated in the money changing business.
I’m merely trying to point out the cult-like behaviours everytime the central bank overlords gather to continue squeezing the last drops out of us…