If the question seems silly, it’s because it is silly. Yet, here’s a headline to discuss: “Crucial Crypto Market Prediction Issued by Raoul Pal“
Crucial Crypto Market Prediction
Please consider Crucial Crypto Market Prediction Issued by Raoul Pal emphasis mine.
Legendary investor and market expert Raoul Pal has waded into the incessant predictions going on in the digital currency ecosystem, labeling most long-term projections as unlikely to see the light of day.
Enormous Irony
Raoul Pal did not use the word “crucial”.
However, the enormous irony is Raoul Pal makes his own long-term prediction that predicting “forecasting will go out the window” by 2030.
Forecast of the Day
- “It becomes near impossible to forecast economies.”
- “By 2030 all forecasting will go out the window”
- “There is a >20% chance that this cycle in Crypto and Exponential Age tech is an Everything, Everywhere, All at Once adoption cycle.”
Forecast Highly Unlikely to See Light of Day
There is no such thing as a “crucial prediction“.
The idea is ridiculous. So is the forecast “All forecasting will go out the window by 2030.”
Hoot of the Day Irony
If you are looking for a forecast highly unlikely to see the light of day, look no further than Raoul’s forecast that crypto is in an “All at once adoption cycle” making forecasting “near impossible”.
Looking Ahead
I do not think the existing central bank setup based on US dollar dominance can last. But no one has any idea, especially Bitcoin advocates, about the replacement.
I am reluctant to say never, but that is roughly what I think about a mass adoption of Bitcoin by governments, ever.
No Mass Adoption of Bitcoin
There will not be mass adoption of bitcoin for three easy to explain reasons.
- Governments will not give up their ability to inflate at will.
- Governments will not turn money supply over to an algorythm.
- Bitcoin is too damn volatile to use as money.
Even if the third condition were to vanish by some miracle, points one and two won’t.
And it won’t be the yuan or a BRICS-backed replacement either. If you disagree, then dispute three articles I have written on the subject.
BRICS Success? When?
July 7, 2023: More Gold Backed BRIC Currency Silliness on Dethroning the Dollar
August 24, 2023: BRICS+ Is Forecast to Dominate the World’s GDP, But What Does That Mean?
August 25, 2023: What Would it Take for a BRIC-Based Currency to Succeed?
BRICS hype has lasted for a decade. Expect it to continue despite the fact that it fails six of six necessary conditions.
When Does US Federal Debt Reach an Unsustainable Level?
However, enormous problems remain and the current path is not sustainable.
An interesting article by Penn Wharton, University of Pennsylvania, says the limit of debt as a percentage of GDP is about 200 percent, When does that happen?
For discussion, please see When Does US Federal Debt Reach an Unsustainable Level?
We are on an unsustainable path. I hope we can all agree on that.
But predicting when this all blows up, and how, is a fool’s mission. Regardless, we can say Bitcoin is not the logical answer for the three reasons I listed above.
Bitcoin has Signore Carlo Pietro Giovanni Guglielmo Tebaldo Ponzi laughing in Hell.
Finally, something libertarian I can completely agree with.
The problem with money is its human civilization-long paradigm of Debt Only. Integrate the new paradigm of Gifting strategically into the debt based system and instead money being what keeps most people on all fours it will enable us to solve our problems and survive converging crises.
Broadly agree with Mish (particularly about 1&2, which are more or less the same thing, but it is at least *possible* that the G could *fail* at its attempt to strangle AltCoins.
The G is very, very jealous of its monopolies on various forms of control…but it frequently fails (at least partially)…there are still drugs traded, etc.
The whole point of AltCoins is to put themselves *beyond* fiat powers. In the end the G will likely try to kill off any alternative currencies…but so long as the G abuses the USD as a store of value, people will search for alternatives.
Russia raised interest rates in an attempt to reduce inflation, and slow an economy over heating at capacity with record 2.9% unemployment. The crucial distinction is between an inflation caused by excess money supply and inflation caused by a shortage of necessities.
One cause of Russian inflation is a sudden shortage of labor. One million Russian men are missing, maimed, dead, or working 12/7 at a defense company. Higher interest rates do not address that deficit. Labor is not available to produce food, clothing, and consumer goods.
Sanctions also reduce the supply of goods for the Russian consumer. Sanctions increase the cost of consumer goods that are smuggled into Russia. Russia cannot replace widgets at the competitive prices they once enjoyed.
Crucially higher interest rates cannot increase the supplies of goods and services in Russia. Higher interest rates cannot reduce inflation. Higher interest rates cannot raise dead Russians from the grave or entice expats to return. Higher interest rates cannot cannot stimulate investment and trade with a pariah state.
“Legendary investor and market expert…:
Meaning, directly translated from Newspeak: Self promoting, rank idiot living solely off of Fed welfare stolen from more competent people.
Mish, the best prognosticators were in your comments section 2007 – 2009. Gaudia Ray, Silver Bar Tender and several others. I think BamMan is only hold over, at least using the same moniker.
I couldn’t agree more that there will not be mass adoption of bitcoin or any alternative currency that takes control away from Governments. That was the entire idea of BC wasn’t it? To replace the untrustworthy dollar? To have control of your own money and its value, free of Government Manipulation?
– Governments will never give up their ability to inflate at will, or their reign is over! No Government on our Earth can survive without the ability to print money. This is how they get everything done, because they are all broke.
– Governments will not turn money supply over to an algorithm or any such nonsense that could distort their agendas. Again control is the key for Governments.
– Bitcoin is too damn volatile to use as money. So is the dollar, but again, it’s all about control. Now they just Print. With BC they would be toast.
I am certain that you could come up with 100 more reasons, fairly quickly, as to why there will never be a Mass adoption of BC. You really only need 1 and the rest are all unnecessary. “Government Control” Period!!!
Thought experiment: What percentage of citizens realize that our government is under the control of transnational criminals? And how many of them need to get activated to start pushing back? Governments ultimately serve at the consent of the governed, and when they refuse to do so, the people revolt. The result is that governments that formerly controlled with an iron fist collapse, and new regimes take over. Even ones led by crazed madmen who run on a platform of taking a chainsaw to the bureaucracy.
– What percentage of citizens realize that our government is under the control of transnational criminals?
> Not many, as this is still a Democracy on paper anyway. When or if, that changes, we will have a lot at the realization point.
– And how many of them need to get activated to start pushing back?
> Hard to tell, as we have seen virtually zero pushback so far, and we have all sorts of drastic painful issues occurring each and every day. People seem to be just humming along, and living their lives. It seems most simply don’t care YET, but that will eventually change.
– Governments ultimately serve at the consent of the governed, and when they refuse to do so, the people revolt.
> Not any Government I have ever come across. Revolt is a hard thing to accomplish, just ask Venezuela, Cuba, Iraq, etc. Government is all powerful, and all seeing, as into what you are doing. The digital age assures that, and there armies of course.
-The result is that governments that formerly controlled with an iron fist collapse, and new regimes take over. Even ones led by crazed madmen who run on a platform of taking a chainsaw to the bureaucracy.
> I would have to see some hard examples of that recently. I think of the situations where this would, could, should have happened, but no such thing occurred.
Canada over the last 5 years… Nothing.
Venezuela over the last 10 years… Nothing.
Iran over the last 20 years… Nothing.
S. Korea over the last 30 Years… Nothing.
The list is endless…
What Government has been overthrown by the Citizens over the last 100 Years? 20 Years? Last Year? Not overtaken by a foreign country like Iraq, but by the actual Citizens of a Country?
“I couldn’t agree more that there will not be mass adoption of bitcoin or any alternative currency that takes control away from Governments.”
Becasue thiiiings are alwaaaaayyyyyys diiiiiiferent thiiiiiiis time……
Throughout history, EVERY SINGLE EXPERIMENT in unconstrained printing, has ALWAYS ended in a complete collapse of the printed scrip. Every single one. All over the world.
There is darned near zero probability why the same won’t happen this time as well.
It could be another bout of Gold, although the ability of the currently leading terror states to bomb and/or confiscate Gold storage almost everywhere, works against that. In which case, the solution will be something less bombable, yet equally debasement proof.
Distributed Crypto tech is slowly mowing from exotic, to rather mundane. Bitcoin may have been a bit too early, and is stuck with too much baggage as a result:
-Excessive concentration in the hands of early accidental lottery winners, leading to possible permanent instability as a result of oversensitivity to arbitrary actions of those guys. Versus the greater emphasis on stability by people having to earn it and do real businesss in it. Like all else, stability is also ultimately governed by the law of large numbers. The Dollar would be unstable as well, if 90% of all Dollars ever possible, were accidentally owned by Musk, Bezos and some mysterious guy named Nakamoto.
-An oversimplistic proof of work function excessively favoring specialized asics for mining; which encourages excessive concentration of miners. Miners who, as a result of their effective lock on mining, can prevent moves to reduce exactly that kind of concentratability.
-An early, not unusual for early adapters yet still somewhat naive, belief in the feasability of conducting every transaction on-chain, rather than allowing Bitcoin to serve more like Gold traditionally has: As a reserve currency; with smaller day to day transactions unertaken in lower-transaction “currencies” which are then convertible to Gold at known and stable rates. Noone ever paid for a spice jar from China by hauling a fractional grain of Gold across oceans. Instead relying on aggregating intermediaries to facilitate such small day-to-day purchases. It’s arguably naive to assume Bitcoin could ever be any different.
But again: Crypto tech is becoming less exotic every day. Experience with it is growing. While an ever growing share of humanity is living in societies much less naive about whomever self promoter arbitrarily demands to be trusted as a currency issuer, than current Americans. The risks of digital Crypto, is also a very orthogonal to those of Gold. Indicating the two are complementary; good hedges for one another. Kind of like financial 2-factor authentication: Larger, more militarily strong and stable societies may feel more comfortable with the safety of Gold. While less stable ones, where cartels and bandits are about as well armed as the military guarding the local Fort Knox, may instead be better off putting their trust in crypto math. Either one, is surely a safer bet than trusting idiots like Bernanke.
Very well thought out and stated!!!
“However, the enormous irony is Raoul Pal makes his own long-term prediction that predicting “forecasting will go out the window” by 2030.”
Ironically, Klaus Schwab says to imagine it is 2030 and you own nothing, and are happy. Who would need to forecast after utopia?
Nothig says capital D #DumbAge like one illiterate idiot; flush on Fed welfare and illiterater than illiterate groupies; trying to out-dumb the next…..
Yemen intercepted the shipping lanes. The Houthy crossed a red line. Yemen is an A-Symmetric enemy like Hamas and Hezbollah. They don’t care about their people.
They are too powerful. They care about the global Islamic Jihad or the Shia equivalent. NATO circle Yemen. If NATO strikes Yemen oil prices might rise if Iran will respond after the defeat of Hamas and striking Yemen. Can economists predict it : yes !
The drunken sailors can’t stop spending. The war in Ukraine and against Hamas
showed us how unprepared and empty we are.
Can economists predict a shift from partying and having fun to beefing up our forces, depot and our production capacities against A-Symmetrical enemies, paying high wages : yes !
The Roman : if u want peace prepare for a war.
If you want peace, you stay out of others’ face.
While stockpiling rifles, and more, behind every blade of grass.
The very fact that there are people in Yemen who are aware that America exists, is a failure of US policy. And it’s ojly downhill from there.
On his real vision podcast, Rao said liquidity is the ultimate driver of global markets. He said something to the effect that liquidity drives 90% job your returns. I thought, if this is true then why am I wasting all this time listening to his podcast. So I stopped listening.
Mish just confirmed that this was a wise decision.
I listen to SOME Real vision Podcasts, but lately my Google Podcast Headlines, downloaded in the APP in my phone (I listen at night) ALL include A.I. Hype by Raoul and His team. It is his JOB to sucker in listeners to PAY extra to listen to his Hype.
I suspect nation states will always have their own national currencies because it gives the government its power. The crucial aspect is what to use for trade. Why not use gold. The trick then becomes how to value each currency in gold. This is done through the market and traders. I think this is the vision for the BRICS currency.
The real issue with any financial institution is trust. The US has destroy the trust other nations had in its brand by seizing Russian assets. Way to go FJB! The development of a new international trading financial system will probably evolve out of nations or institutions that can establish themselves as high trust brokers. Perhaps smaller nations with histories as banking centers such as Switzerland, Singapore and the UAE. Of course they will need to make arrangements with more powerful nations that will serve as their protectorate.
“The US has destroy the trust other nations had in its brand by seizing Russian assets.”
What is a Great Reset? Martin Armstrong refers to it as communism 2.0. Back in history, assets have been seized during hard times. Gold by Roosevelt, assets of the Catholic Church in a kingdom, assets of the Aztecs because of Spanish military superiority.
I mean really, RuPaul? What does he/she know about investing or crypto? Just stick to entertainment and let the pros deal with finance.