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Iran Launches a Surprise Attack on U.S. Forces in Jordan

The war expands to Iraq with Ukraine on deck as Saudi Arabia retaliates with the US.

Iran Takes War Initiative

Axios reports Iran launches missiles at U.S. base for first time since Trump paused strikes

Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles toward a U.S. military base in Jordan on Tuesday in what U.S. Central Command described as an “attempted surprise attack.”

What they’re saying: Trump told Axios on Monday that the U.S. was in “very deep talks” with Iran but warned that he would return to “very strong military action” if diplomacy failed.

CENTCOM said Tuesday evening that U.S. and Saudi fighter aircraft struck multiple logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq in response to what it described as more than 30 IRGC-directed drone attacks over the previous 72 hours.

Saudi Arabia’s Defense Ministry later confirmed it participated in the strikes, saying they were coordinated with CENTCOM.

CENTCOM said the attacks on U.S. forces were unsuccessful.

Deep Bullsheet

Was this an attempted surprise attack or a surprise attack?

Regardless, it clear that the idea of “very deep talks” with Iran is nonsense.

Joint Strikes on Iraq

The New York Times reports U.S. and Saudi Arabia Target Iranian Proxies

The U.S. and Saudi Arabia said they had carried out joint airstrikes on Iranian proxies in Iraq. 

The United States and Saudi Arabia said they had carried out joint strikes on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq early Wednesday local time, and the Iranian military said that it had fired missiles at American military targets in the Middle East.

The attacks followed several days without full-blown fighting between the United States and Iran. Saudi Arabia, however, faced dozens of drone attacks targeting its oil facilities this week. And the Iranian-allied Houthi militia in Yemen said it had launched missiles at a Saudi oil tanker on Tuesday, its latest attack since announcing a blockade of Saudi shipping in the Red Sea.

Iran Considered Retaliatory Strike on Ukrainian Seaport

Also consider Iran Considered Retaliatory Strike on Ukrainian Seaport

Iran considered attacking a seaport in Ukraine in response to a Ukrainian strike on an Iranian ship, but a flurry of diplomacy has calmed the situation for now, according to Iranian and Western officials.

Ukraine, which has accused Iran and Russia of supporting each other’s military operations, struck an Iranian commercial cargo ship in the Caspian Sea on Saturday, killing a civilian sailor. Iranian officials vowed to retaliate.

Some people briefed on the intelligence said that they expected Iran to fire a ballistic missile with a small warhead at Ukraine, to make a symbolic point but cause relatively little damage. Other officials said the target was probably one of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.

Any missile fired from Iran into Ukraine would be a dramatic escalation and risk triggering a wider war, given the tensions between the two countries over Iran’s alliance with Russia.

Iranian officials said they hoped the conflict would end with their retaliatory strike, but Western officials warned that it was difficult to predict how Ukraine would respond.

On Sunday, Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, called Ukraine’s attack a violation of the U.N. charter aimed at dragging Europe into Iran’s war with the United States. In a social media post, he said the incident “CANNOT GO UNANSWERED.”

But on Tuesday, after Ukrainian diplomats sought to ease tensions, Mr. Araghchi spoke by phone with his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha.

After the call, Mr. Araghchi said in a post that Mr. Sybiha had described the attack on the cargo ship as unintentional. “Iran does not seek escalation either, but made clear any attack on our citizens or interests is unacceptable,” Mr. Araghchi wrote. “There must be restitution for losses.”

Mehdi Rahmati, an analyst who is close to Iran’s government and is based in the country, said that while some Iranian political figures had called for striking back at Ukraine, others had advised restraint.

“Ukraine is not a small, insignificant country. It has warfare experience, and logistical support from America and Europe. We won’t gain anything by creating a new front in the war,” Mr. Rahmati said in a phone interview from Tehran.

Still, it was not clear how long the tensions would remain in check.

Mideast Powder Keg

The Mideast remains a powder keg.

Oil, as one might expect, rose on the news. West Texas Intermediate is $81.85 up $2.60. Brent is $84.40 up $2.32.

Those are mild reactions. So, the market does not view this surprise attack as a major escalation.

However, the surprise strike does make shambles of Trump’s lie that Iran is desperate for a deal.

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132 Comments
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William Jacksona
William Jacksona
5 days ago

What do the Natzies and Islamist and communist have in common?
Desire for world domination
Slavery for the others
Killing any who disagree with them and those who leave the cult
Using religion as a cover for their demonic conquests

Last edited 5 days ago by William Jacksona
Quatloo
Quatloo
5 days ago

That sounds like Israel

BobC
BobC
5 days ago

Communists are anti-religion, they consider it the “opiate of the masses”.
Come back when you’re sober and try your argument again

cambeiu
cambeiu
5 days ago
Reply to  BobC

I love when they use the “Marxist-Islamist” term. Really shows that they have no fucking clue about anything.

William Jackson
William Jackson
5 days ago
Reply to  BobC

Their religion is the worship of the State that the communist party members run

Arthur Orwell
Arthur Orwell
5 days ago

Most of the people who think of themselves as liberals have that in common with the “Natzies and Islamist and communist,” too.

peelo
peelo
6 days ago

“July 29 (Reuters) – Iran is expected to receive within weeks a first shipment out of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air-defence missile launchers, three sources familiar with the deal told Reuters, as it rebuilds its defences amid war with the United States. …”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/exclusive-iran-chinese-shoulder-launched-030628359.html

What will TACO say? Is that affected by the rare earth minerals supply situation? That backed him off of China last time, after years of tough rhetoric, and a flurry of tariff threats.

LM2020
LM2020
6 days ago

So when we bomb Iran in the middle of negotiations and murder a school full of little girls it’s ok, but if Iran fails to observe one of Trump’s arbitrary pauses in fighting it’s a sneak attack. I wonder how many of Trump’s turd gobbling supporters will parrot that line.

Oleg Grozny
Oleg Grozny
6 days ago
Reply to  LM2020

The Iranian attack was probably a response to the joint US/Saudi attack on Iran’s allies in Iraq and not just a random action based on some sort of a Trumpian-like, impulsive gut feeling.

Frosty
Frosty
6 days ago

I do not think any of the players in this Middle Eastern shitstorm want a solution to the war.

Trump is too busy with his military distraction from the Epstein files and enriching the military contractors. GDP would crash without the war spending!

BiBi wants everyone in the world to die; excepting his Israli’s.

Iran wants to avenge the last 100 years of western interference, exploitation and war.

Interestingly, Iran is absolutely no threat to the US and can barely touch Israel.

As long as Trump can grift and syphon xprofits for his family.

yippee
yippee
6 days ago
Reply to  Frosty

pax amerika has been on a constant worldwide imperial war footing since, the early 1800s when we attacked the spanish empire holdings and the native indians. nothing new. we are more like the romans. we vote for this. the red v blue team charade is idiotic.

Webej
Webej
6 days ago

The terms in which this news is articulated are pure distractions.

Whoops! Ukraine inadvertently hit an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea!
UA is run by Americans and does nothing without American involvement.
Without US ISR they wouldn’t know the ship was there, let alone be able to hit it.
This US messaging.

Surprise! Iran targets US bases.
Isn’t part of the MOM (Memorandum of Misunderstanding) that the US depart the region as a prerequisite to stability and peace? Since the US is not acting on advice and invitation, Iran is forcing them out. They’ve already been forced to retreat 1000 miles way by sea, and concentrated their assets way back in East (Jordan) & West Palestine.

By the way, I am also in deep discussion about the course of human events.
With God.

Peace
Peace
6 days ago

US imposed economic sanction over Iran for 46 years. Military support to Iraq on Iraq-Iran war. And now bombing and destroyed infrastructure and killing people.
Iran has to finish this bullying tactic now or face more sanctions and bombings later.
If you kowtow to bully he will keep on never ending bullying.
For Iran , it’s now or never.
Punch on the nose hard knowingly you will be bombed hard too.
Yes, he will consider twice before bullying next time.

pokercat
pokercat
5 days ago
Reply to  Peace

It should be an expected action by Iran to attack at least one major city in the US by biological or chemical weapons. I hope this never happens but it may follow a ground invasion of Iran by US forces, Withdrawing from Iran is getting more difficult everyday. Trump missed his chance to declare victory and escape after about the third day of this illegal “war”. If one examines the Iraq/Iran war you can see the dogged determination of the Iranians.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago

Saudi Arabia, and by extension, Pakistan, will be dragged into the US-Israeli War On Iran.

GAZ
GAZ
6 days ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

Pakistan and India will start a war with each other before that happens. Those two hate each other almost as bad Muslims and Jews.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago
Reply to  GAZ

India wants to stay on the Americans’ good side.

GAZ
GAZ
6 days ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

India is kissing China’s ass right now, not us. Try to keep up.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago
Reply to  GAZ

In what way? You sound like someone who really knows nothing about India.

pokercat
pokercat
5 days ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

India wants to stay on China’s good side also.

peelo
peelo
6 days ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

” … Under a plan agreed by the parties, deliveries [of 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired missiles within weeks] will initially be by air from ​Urumqi in western China, then transiting through Pakistan to Iran, according to ‌the sources, ….”

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/exclusive-iran-chinese-shoulder-launched-030628359.html

Bam_Man
Bam_Man
6 days ago

Either the COMEX prices for crude oil, gasoline, diesel, etc. are outrageously manipulated shams, or the economies of the U.S., China, Europe and Japan are already in FAR worse shape than we have been led to believe.

Last edited 6 days ago by Bam_Man
El Capitan
El Capitan
6 days ago

Wow! A “surprise” attack!

Is that sort of like the thing that we did when, together with Israel, we bombed all their leaders?

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago
Reply to  El Capitan

When WE do it, it’s called a “pre-emptive strike” or something.

When they do it, it’s a dastardly surprise attack.

Tenacious D
Tenacious D
6 days ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

aka the rules-based international order

peelo
peelo
6 days ago
Reply to  Tenacious D

The Russians didn’t hesitate to compare the USA’s invasion of Iraq to their own of Ukraine. And for the life of me, I can’t see how they are wrong on that. I guess our strikes were more ‘surgical” or something, but the ensuing chaos and unintended consequences for street level Iraqis more than made up for it. And there were bonus points: the strengthening of Iran. Vaguely reminds me of when we shipped arms to the Mujahedin, strengthening the group who mutated into Al Qaeda. We have these successive groups of neophyte managers who introduce these insane innovations in the Middle East. Keystone Kops.

Last edited 6 days ago by peelo
syncopatient
syncopatient
3 days ago
Reply to  peelo

I think the US invasion, war in Iraq was totally wrong, but I don’t think Russia can’t make that comparison because Russia is attempting to permanently steal large parts of Ukraines territory while it doesnt seem the US was doing that in particular in Iraq, though as you said, the US commited awful killing and destruction there and paid a heavy price with all the US soldier deaths and injuries plus debt.

Quatloo
Quatloo
6 days ago

There is nothing surprising about this “surprise attack”. The Iranians are smart strategic thinkers. They know that Netanyahu and Zelenskyy both discussed Iran with Trump yesterday, and know that likely means an attack is coming. As long as the US is prosecuting a war from Middle East military bases, those bases will always be legitimate targets.

After signing the MOU, Trump said the world economy was four weeks away from collapse and that his biggest fear was to be the next Herbert Hoover (an absolutely idiotic admission IMHO). Things are much worse now, and getting worse every day.

This notion that everyone in Iran hates their government and the population will rise up and overthrow it at any time is a laughable fantasy by irrational people completely unconnected from reality. Iran is far more democratic than its neighbors, who are mostly brutal dictatorships supported by the US. The attacks on Iran have galvanized Iranians behind their government, much like 9/11 unified Americans against those who attacked America. America’s situation in the Middle East is worse in every way than before Trump began this war.

peelo
peelo
6 days ago
Reply to  Quatloo

Trump never learned anything about Iran. He has been gazing at hallucinations, all through. He reminds me of AH’s parochial misreading of the USA.

Tony Frank
Tony Frank
6 days ago

It is a shame that a country like IRAN is making a fool of taco and Americans are having to pay for this deranged idiot’s action.

The Tooth
The Tooth
6 days ago
Reply to  Tony Frank

The pedo-con was voted in. Will the world survive another 2.5 years…?

rjohnson
rjohnson
6 days ago

Cool because these lies every time oil spikes about Iran wanting to deal, talks etc is getting old. Not that I want war but the farce must stop and I love seeing Trump be shown for the fool he is. Tehran said even this latest round of talks talk was BS. Anyone with half a brain should’ve caught on to this. I don’t look at our supreme jackasses twitter account but I bet it’s pretty colorful right now. Lord only knows what was discussed with Nuttyyahoo in DC this week. Nukes? I think this whole POS is about to come crashing down and rightfully so.

Rogerroger
Rogerroger
6 days ago

5d chess. Choke the world off of all its oil supplies. Destroy all the infrastructure so it will take years to rebuild. Make the world realize renewables are the way they need to go. Be on Israels side so pedo file gets into heaven card is checked. Family friends profit along the way.

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
6 days ago
Reply to  Rogerroger

The US is wasting time and resources in overseas conflicts, National security should be built on domestic strength, specifically by securing our power grid and reducing global oil dependence. We have the technology, tools, solar, wind, advanced battery storage, nuclear power to make this happen.
We have the wrong people in place to make this happen.

GAZ
GAZ
6 days ago

Advanced battery storage? Please…..
If this was true, solar and wind would supply more than 5% of primary energy consumption and 20% percent of electrical generation.
Renewable energy is inconsistent due to extended periods of low wind and sun. Where is this battery storage capacity you talk about? We might have the technology, but we don’t have raw materials to do it. There isn’t enough rare earth required materials and elements left on planet earth to make enough batteries and solar panels (both of which have finite life spans), to store renewable energy to ever even come close to replacing fossil fuels. Renewables check all the boxes for the uninformed but it will never scale up to maintain the current economic structure of modern society. Nuclear is the only thing that will save us and there isn’t enough uranium for that either. Who ever is left 50 years or less from now, will be scratching the earth with sticks to grow food. We are not going forward forever, we are going to start going backwards pretty soon. The can of infinite growth has been kicked down the road and has hit the wall of a finite resource planet, this is why inflation of all things important in life will get worse, never better.
It was fun while it lasted…………

Last edited 6 days ago by GAZ
PapaDave
PapaDave
5 days ago
Reply to  GAZ

Sorry GAZ. There is so much wrong in your post I hardly know where to begin.

Let’s start with nuclear. The US completed 2 new units (Vogtle 3 and 4) in 2023 and 2024. They both took over 12 years to build and cost $35 billion. Before Vogtle, the previous new nuclear plant was Watts Bar 2, where construction started in 1973, and was finally completed in 2016!

Before that, Watts Bar 1 was completed in 1996!

Nuclear is just too slow to build and too expensive. There is plenty of fuel and it isn’t even expensive. It’s the construction costs that are holding nuclear back.

For comparison, China is currently building about 30 nuclear plants (1 GW each) over an 8 year time frame. However, that pales against their buildout of renewables. China built 315 GW of solar and 120 GW of wind power in 2025 vs 4 GW of nuclear. And they built 66 GW of battery storage to help with renewables. They are making renewables work quite well. And there is no shortage of materials to make it all work.

pokercat
pokercat
5 days ago
Reply to  PapaDave

But, but, but they are commies!

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago

Are you a commie? Why why why do you hate the freedom?
/sarc/

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
6 days ago

My first thought as to why they attacked was immediately that Iran wanted to prove to anyone paying attention that negotiating is the last thing on their minds right now, to expose Trump’s latest bloviating horsepucky.

GAZ
GAZ
6 days ago

Iran realizes, as do many others, that Trump has the emotional maturity of a 13 year old girl. Iran is goading Trump into escalating the war into a new phase of expansion and chaos. The world economy will suffer worse than it is now since the world economy runs on petroleum and all of it’s distillates.
The IRGC doesn’t care what happens to anything or anybody, including Iran’s population as long as they perceive that they are “winning” against the Great Satan… and right now they are. They control the straight, they are dangerously degrading the US military of it’s ordinance and they are driving Trump more insane on a daily basis.
God help us all…..

“When people have nothing to lose, they lose it” -Gerald Celente-

William Jackson
William Jackson
6 days ago

If Iran fires missiles over TURKEY( a NATO member) to land in Ukraine —Turkey may invade Iran from the North—[ 550 miles to Tehran ) Something the Iranians have considered —besides the ships were carrying munitions as they blew up with a bang—Many people in Iran want the cultists governing gone and would invite Turkey in.

cambeiu
cambeiu
6 days ago

Yeah, keep hoping that Turkey will invade a 90 million people Muslim country who’s government also dislike the Kurds because a missile flew over its territory and landed in Ukraine…

Last edited 6 days ago by cambeiu
William Jackson
William Jackson
6 days ago
Reply to  cambeiu

Only the mullahs and their brainwashed followers that are on their payroll would resist briefly as the rest of the Iranians welcome freedom again.from the death cult.

Neil
Neil
6 days ago

That’s the type of wishful thinking that got the USA in this mess in the first place.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
6 days ago

Well you just solved the Middle East. Why didn’t anyone think of that before you did?

Sentient
Sentient
6 days ago

“the mullahs, the mullahs!” lol

Use of the terms “the mullahs” and “Russian propaganda” immediately identify the speaker as an imbecile. Nothing personal.

Last edited 6 days ago by Sentient
Quatloo
Quatloo
6 days ago
Reply to  Sentient

Yes, the language always gives away the Israeli/US propaganda indoctrination:

Iranian Regime as opposed to Government

Terrorists as opposed to Militias or Fighters

Proxies as opposed to Allies

Hardline Extremists as opposed to Political Leaders

Mullahs as opposed to Religious Leaders

When you hear those words being used it is by someone who has been trained to use them through relentless propaganda campaigns. The primary purpose of all of these terms is to dehumanize, isolate, and vilify, rather than objectively describe.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago

So what is taking them so long?

Sentient
Sentient
6 days ago

19 year old Private Isabella Gonzales from Texas should never have been in Jordan in the first place. What kind of country tricks its teenage girls into joining the military as their only – or best – path to economic survival and then ships them off to be a sitting duck in a dangerous foreign land to benefit a foreign country whose people consider her subhuman?

peelo
peelo
6 days ago
Reply to  Sentient

Trump and many fail to understand the warfare-welfare state uses that level of soldier or sailor mainly as the biggest jobs program in history. It is a clockwork that smoothly runs my regional economy here in SoCal. This should not be mistaken for a force that can project boots onto particularly Asia or the Middle East, to any major enduring effect. That lesson has been repeated shown and forgotten.
And that system is, by the way, straight up authoritarian socialism.

Last edited 6 days ago by peelo
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
6 days ago
Reply to  Sentient

Nobodies tricked. It’s all voluntary.

They get people to sign up for all kinds of reasons. Some do it for the GI bill (paid post secondary schooling), some do it because they aren’t overly smart and this is the only job they can get that pays anything, some do it because they want to kill others etc.

No one knows why Isabella joined other than her and possibly her family.

pokercat
pokercat
5 days ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

That our young people join for lots of reasons isn’t the problem. The problem is that we have 800 military bases around the world. They are the problem like the one in Jordon.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man
6 days ago
Reply to  Sentient

They don’t have “trick” anyone into joining the military. It is essentially a “poverty draft”. On the surface, the military looks like a better option than the no-benefits, low-paying, shiite jobs available to those low on the socioeconomic ladder. I am sure she understood that she was not signing up for the Girl Scouts.

Last edited 6 days ago by Bam_Man
The Tooth
The Tooth
6 days ago
Reply to  Sentient

“Be all you can be” was the military ad slogan in my days. I had nothing coming out of HS. Almost joined, had I did I would have been sent to the Gulf War and wouldn’t be here now. To die for the oil and politicians….

Jojo
Jojo
6 days ago
Reply to  Sentient

Yes, they should be barefoot and pregnant by age 19!

CJW
CJW
6 days ago

Trump as usual is projecting. probably both sides want a deal but Trump is more desperate for a deal. The problem is Trump needs a win and Iran refuses to give it to him. Let’s hope congress defunds the war and protects American soldiers from pointless death. Obama had a deal that was working, Trump couldn’t stand to see a democratic success story and we are now living with the results of Trumps supersized ego and of his obvious dementia. Congress is at fault here for allowing Trump to remain in power under these circumstances. They need to wake up and do their job. Johnson is a total and utter disgrace.

Hopefully Trump will be stopped from stealing the November mid terms and the balance of power will flip and those that come into power have the balls to act.

it is a lot to hope for though.

peelo
peelo
6 days ago

Phase 1: we (Trump) hit a hornet’s nest with a baseball bat.
Phase 2: we (Trump), stand around near the nest, getting stung, swatting a few hornets, and jabbering all kinds of random nonsense to ourself.

I am looking for an example in history when conventional air strikes alone won a war. So it is boots or nothing? (I’m not ruling out Trump ordering air strikes that are war crimes as an intermediate possibility.) If it is boots, Trump loses domestically-politically. And it won’t work anyway. Iran knows this. It “has cards” to play.

Trump meanwhile just jabbers on, and burns ordinance. Remember when he told Zelenskyy he had “no cards”? Where’s my “Trump was 95% Wrong” hat? I should get something to show for this.

Tollsforthee
Tollsforthee
6 days ago
Reply to  peelo

The bombing of Serbia for 6 weeks was regarded as a win for Clinton.

But to your point, Serbia is far less of an adversary than Iran.

Neil
Neil
6 days ago
Reply to  Tollsforthee

And that was not the only aspect of that war – Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia, Slovenia etc all had their armies and / or militias on the ground. The bombing was not on its own, as it is in Iran now.

Rogerroger
Rogerroger
6 days ago
Reply to  Tollsforthee

I could be wrong but i thought un forces were on the ground while us provided air power.

Avery2
Avery2
6 days ago
Reply to  Tollsforthee

Now you’ve got me rechecking the meaning of the word “adversary” in the dictionary.

TucsonMan
TucsonMan
6 days ago
Reply to  peelo

Hiroshima/Nagasaki?

Triple B
Triple B
6 days ago
Reply to  peelo

Bombing has purpose only when there’s a clear end strategy. Without that, it turns into an endless spectacle. People everywhere are tired of watching this unfold. This should have aligned with his stated goal of avoiding new conflicts and ending existing ones. Instead, it feels like the world is dealing with a leader who keeps creating more problems than solutions.

Eric
Eric
6 days ago

Iran will do everything in its power to push oil prices to $200 by Election Day.
They know it is the only way to cripple Trump.

Sentient
Sentient
6 days ago
Reply to  Eric

“The only way to cripple Trump” is $200 oil? I’m sure they’d like to cripple Trump, but his party is facing huge losses this fall even if oil is $70 and gasoline is $3.49.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
6 days ago
Reply to  Sentient

Drive that nail

top gone
top gone
6 days ago
Reply to  Sentient

I think the magic number is 3.47 that spells epstein files in numerology

Brutus Admirer
Brutus Admirer
6 days ago
Reply to  Eric

I can’t help but wonder why oil isn’t more expensive already. If ~15% of the world’s oil is missing since March, it seems like it would be higher. Are the strategic reserves not getting close to empty? One hears that oil cannot be bought (for delivery) presently for the Brent & West Texas prices, or even close.

Eric
Eric
6 days ago
Reply to  Brutus Admirer

In my opinion, the primary reason global oil prices are not higher is that China—the world’s largest crude importer—slashed its market purchases when the war erupted. Rather than paying inflated prices, Beijing chose to draw from its massive strategic and commercial reserves. This indicates they likely anticipated a shorter conflict. However, these strategic stockpiles are finite. China will eventually be forced to return to the international market. If they resume aggressive buying before the conflict concludes, the sudden demand surge could drive oil prices to unpredictable heights. JMHO

PapaDave
PapaDave
6 days ago

Iran is playing the long game, knowing that the US eventually gets worn down and gives up (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan). It could take many more months, and possibly years.

They also are after revenge. Hence more attacks from Iran on US bases, where the US fires 2 patriots at each incoming missile (and sometimes 3). In a war of attrition, the US is running out of munitions and Iran is happy to oblige.

They are also literally taunting the US to put boots on the ground, knowing that the US public doesn’t sit well with US casualties.

And they will let their proxies do some damage as well, which forces the US to use up munitions in multiple theatres.

They certainly are not in “deep” or serious talks as Trump keeps saying. They are still exchanging messages through intermediaries, which is again part of the long game.

Oil and other supplies coming out of the Gulf remain restricted. I am following it all and taking advantage of the opportunities this presents.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
6 days ago
Reply to  PapaDave

PapaDave gets it

PapaDave
PapaDave
6 days ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

Trump obliges Iran by saying that he will “hit them back hard”. Oil was up $3 before his statement. Now up $5 after his statement.

Volatility is a trader’s best friend.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
6 days ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Was thinking 60% chance the first overnight ramp would melt away into the open, much to my delight we got ramp 2.0! Cheers

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
6 days ago
Reply to  PapaDave

That overnight trade in crude was amazing. Seemed too easy to work but it did. ITM USO long Sep calls (buying about 6-8 wks from exp, not the first go round) about $1 above the low yesterday, sold 1/3 at open and the rest just now. The rhythm of crude prices right now has made the oil trade less difficult than it normally is.

Jon L
Jon L
6 days ago

I think this risks misreading Iran as irrational. The Iranian leadership is brutal, but it is also highly strategic and severely constrained: militarily weaker than the US, economically damaged, and dependent on asymmetric tools such as missiles, proxies and disruption of shipping. So its actions need to be calibrated to create leverage without inviting regime-ending retaliation.

The attack on US forces may therefore be less “mad escalation” than an attempt to stop Washington turning the ceasefire into a quiet victory—reopening Hormuz under US protection while Iran gains nothing.

That calculation may be reckless or simply wrong, but treating the Iranians as nutters rather than rational adversaries is exactly how the US repeatedly misunderstands them.

If the Iranian regme is rational then the only way to sort this mess out is to negotiate in a firm but honest way (and with the usual caveats about verification etc.). The problem is that one side of the table is not rational or capable of negotiating in good faith.

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
6 days ago
Reply to  Jon L

Misleading framing.

Evidence establishes Oceania has a brutal regime. Oceania started the most recent war, with a round of assassination and coup attempts and indiscriminate killing of civilians.

Unclear about Iran, since it’s hard to assess with centuries of Oceania lies floating around.

The strike was to degrade some of the aggressor’s forces before they’re used for the umpteenth time.

Jojo
Jojo
6 days ago
Reply to  Jon L

The Iranian Regime is NOT rational! They are driven by their religious fanaticism firstly.

So what is your Plan B with this info?

threeblindmice
threeblindmice
6 days ago

How DARE they hit us back? That is NOT allowed. Those treacherous SoB’s!

Stu
Stu
6 days ago

– Iran Considered Retaliatory Strike on Ukrainian Seaport > Iran obviously does have weapons, and the abilities to use those weapons. They continue to strike targets at will, and all over the place. So much for Trumps delusion, that Iran has no capabilities. Heck, they have as much as we do by the looks of it. They strike and hit targets just like we do. How are they so weak and with no abilities to fight back? They fight back at us at will, and constantly.

– Iran considered attacking a seaport in Ukraine in response to a Ukrainian strike on an Iranian ship. > Heck, they are targeting Ukraine now. For a country so beleaguered and weak, and with no military, they still have the capabilities to target Ukraine? Somebody is not being straight and upfront with the American People is what it appears to be, from where I sit on the sidelines and watch, countries get bombed repeatedly all over the place…

– The Mideast remains a powder keg. > No closer to peace than they were on day 1, and probably further away now. If this was meant to create peace, then we have an odd way of doing so. Each time Trump says Iran wants peace, they bomb us again, with the weapons they don’t have, and can’t use. Each time Trump says we are closer to peace, we bomb them. Call me crazy, but I was under the impression peace meant No Bombing and talk and negotiations for a settlement for both Countries to agree on a Peace Plan. We can even get Iran to sit in a room with us to talk peace, because we keep creating war with them.

– However, the surprise strike does make shambles of Trump’s lie that Iran is desperate for a deal.> Bingo!!! At this point, I would suggest that Trump wants Peace far more than IRAN does. Iran would love to see America blown to bits, and peace looks far from any reality of it actually happening.

Jon
Jon
6 days ago
Reply to  Stu

Good on you Stu for seeing what Trump is doing here: he’s lying. Now, once you understand that literally everything he says is a lie, you’ll start to get who he is as a person. Then when you find out that literally everything Fox said about the Biden administration was a lie, but a necessary pretext to set Trump up to do all of those evil things: have his kids make money off of his role, weaponization of the DOJ, inflationary policies, rampant corruption, and the list goes on.

That’s when you, like I did, will realize just how far the GOP has gone off the rails, and how gullible and ignorant MAGA Republicans are.

Stu
Stu
6 days ago
Reply to  Jon

Conclusion:

Given the extensive scrutiny of Trump’s statements, it is difficult to identify specific claims he has not misrepresented. Most of his public statements have been fact-checked and found to contain inaccuracies

I just came across this, so thought I would share…

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
6 days ago
Reply to  Stu

Who is this new Stu? Glad to meet ya!

Mike R
Mike R
5 days ago

what you said

pokercat
pokercat
3 days ago

The maid found the password to his laptop.

Phil in CT
Phil in CT
6 days ago
Reply to  Stu

You’re not crazy, you’re stupid, and you voted for this guy along with millions of other morons. Other people may forgive you but I won’t.

Jojo
Jojo
6 days ago

Back on the ranch:

Iran Admits to Major Infrastructure Damage from U.S. Strikes

TEHRAN, IRAN – JULY 26: 

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian toured transportation and logistics sites damaged by U.S. airstrikes over the weekend, as state media reports implicitly conceded the impact of those strikes was much greater than the regime had previously admitted.

Iran’s state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) published a dour account of Pezeshkian’s infrastructure tour on Sunday:

Officials briefed the president on the condition of border terminals, ports, road, rail, maritime and air transport networks, as well as the supply and distribution of essential goods.

https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2026/07/28/iran-admits-major-infrastructure-damage-u-s-strikes/

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
6 days ago
Reply to  Jojo

I also heard Trump sunk their navy….about 6 million times

George
George
6 days ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

It has to be done,them Iranians are building pangas faster the the us bombs can sink them…

threeblindmice
threeblindmice
6 days ago
Reply to  Jojo

I’m reliably told that Iran’s oil pipelines have EXPLODED like no one has ever seen.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
6 days ago
Reply to  threeblindmice

“Bigly”

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
6 days ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

Many people are saying this, just don’t ask Trump to identify a single one of them.

Jon
Jon
6 days ago
Reply to  Jojo

So, sounds like we are going to have to pay a lot more than $300 million for reparations.

Jojo
Jojo
6 days ago
Reply to  Jon

Since WWII, at least, the US has never paid “reparations” to any country. We are certainly not going to start with Iran! 🤣🤣🤣

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
6 days ago
Reply to  Jojo

Are you saying Iran was damaged as if that makes a difference to Iran? I don’t think this will alter their approach one iota, do you?

Jojo
Jojo
6 days ago

I do think it makes a major difference. Let’s keep doing it and see what happens.

Jojo
Jojo
6 days ago

Regardless, it clear that the idea of “very deep talks” with Iran is nonsense.”

I’ve pointed this out before but few pay attention.

The Iranian Regime is a decentralized entity with various factions currently vying for power. While team trump “may” be talking to some people in the Iranian Regime, it is most likely the politicians in their Parliament.

Meanwhile, the IRGC military side has their own ideas AND they have the ability to make attacks when and where they choose, thus undercutting the politicians.

This is why Trump has no choice but to put together a Sunni Arab coalition and send them in as boots on the ground with the US providing backup. Maybe Israel can join in also.

Raj Kumar
Raj Kumar
6 days ago
Reply to  Jojo

And do you think that will work? What do think the Iraq Iran war was about?

The Iranian’s fought the Iraqies to a standstill.

cambeiu
cambeiu
6 days ago
Reply to  Jojo

The Iranian Regime is a decentralized entity with various factions currently vying for power.

Why don’t you explain to us how this wonderful situation came to pass Jojo?

And now, according to you, due to this wonderful scenario, Trump has “no choice” but put together a coalition of Sunnis to try pull off what Iraq could not do at the cost of over 300K men?

What a show of strategy and deep thinking we are witnessing here.

Last edited 6 days ago by cambeiu
Jojo
Jojo
6 days ago
Reply to  cambeiu

Better than your regular whining with no productive solutions offered.

Trump has said he is not going to walk away, so what should be done with that knowledge? Hold your breath until you turn red and stomp your tiny feet? That sound slike it should help! 🤣

hmk
hmk
6 days ago
Reply to  Jojo

They are not going to allow the IRGC to control the straight. You are right, negotiations are unlikely to be successful. I have always thought this was going to evolve into a land war and ultimately WW3 thanks to the messianic obese asshole in Washington. He should have never started this and I believe he did it against his advisors but unfortunately we have painted ourselves into a corner. The other option I possibly see ,although unlikely, is Isreal actually dropping the bomb on them

cambeiu
cambeiu
6 days ago
Reply to  hmk

It is financially, logistically and militarily not possible for the US to wrestle the Strait by force from Iran.

A) The US military is much smaller today than it was back during the invasion of Iraq in 2003. There aren’t enough troops to stage an invasion in a country that is mountainous, much bigger and much more populated than Iraq was.

B) The US federal debt in 2003 was $7 trillion. Today it is almost $19 trillion. US budget deficit in 2003 was $370 billion. In 2025 it was $1.8 trillion. There is no way to finance a 2003 Iraq style invasion today. Simply not possible.

C) Even if it was possible to to amass the necessary troops and pay for it somehow, where would you put them safely pre-invasion? In any staging ground that you select, from Jordan, to Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait or UAE, the US forces and equipment amassing there would be subjected to constant, relentless Iranian missile and drone bombardment.

And even if Trump somehow found the money, the troops and the place to put the troops in, Iran would simply level the rest of the Gulf countries at which point the whole question of who controls the Strait would be mute.

There is no military solution to this. Period.
Trump just took a huge stinky shit on the bed and his die hard supported are wallowing in it while proclaiming to everyone else that it smells like vanilla.

Last edited 6 days ago by cambeiu
randocalrissian
randocalrissian
6 days ago
Reply to  cambeiu

Iran can drone on and on for days. They also have a large army of unmanned aerial devices to deploy.

Jojo
Jojo
6 days ago

No, they don’t have a large army of drones. If they did, then they would be throwing swarms of them at their various targets, which then have a better chance of hitting something, rather than sending 5 to 10 drones.

You should try to read more widely and keep up with the latest news.

Jojo
Jojo
6 days ago
Reply to  cambeiu

There is no military solution to this. Period.”

You are wrong. We’ll have to wait and see.

Jon
Jon
6 days ago
Reply to  hmk

Followed by Iran bombing the hell out of Israel’s nuclear plant causing a meltdown and half of Israel being evacuated.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
6 days ago
Reply to  hmk

The sooner we nuke ourselves to extinction, the better. The drama is nearly killing me on its own.

Neil
Neil
6 days ago
Reply to  Jojo

Trump may have said he won’t walk away, but Trump has also never stick to his word. So he’ll walk away just fine. The only question is how hard he has to lie to claim victory and how much damage he will do to the USA and its allies before he walks away.

Jojo
Jojo
6 days ago
Reply to  Neil

So then ignore what he does and stop whining, if you are sure that he will TACO. No harm, no foul, yes?

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
6 days ago
Reply to  Jojo

We would not need to solve a thing if Trump had simply not invaded. Remember in January he declared the Iran mission was regime change, to liberate Iran’s people and MIGA. Did you buy that or did you assume from the get go this would end in us digging up a rock mountain?

Jojo
Jojo
6 days ago

But he did and we have to live with reality as it is, now what could have been.

peelo
peelo
6 days ago
Reply to  Jojo

So there is no such thing, really, as an Iran that can be dealt with? Is that like the claim, heard elsewhere, that there is no such thing as a “Palestinian?” And the implicit next step, is it not, that these supposedly nonexistent entities are OK, indeed should be, taken out, revised down to the ground, root and branch? Isn’t that your end game: total dominance, no self-direction by these wayward entities? And isn’t that the only thing you mean by “productive” discussion here?

Jojo
Jojo
6 days ago
Reply to  peelo

No, and again, we are warring against the IRANIAN REGIME, not the common people of Iran.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
6 days ago
Reply to  Jojo

Trump has a choice, he can decide to NOT put boots on the ground. The USA will not win a ground invasion. Pull the Vietnam War string, why don’t you, POTUS?

cambeiu
cambeiu
6 days ago

Once again Iran sending a message to Trump and the US:

“I’m not locked in here with you, you’re locked in here with me”

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
6 days ago

US Treasury annual debt rollovers now $8+ TRILLION per year

Have fun!

Pedro
Pedro
6 days ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

This is a huge issue that no one is talking about. Getting pushed into short duration because the US is a financial basket case and can’t borrow long term will continue and accelerate. The MMT/fiat theory guys will say its not a problem but creditworthiness over the long term matters because productivity growth comes predominantly from long term investment

Webej
Webej
6 days ago
Reply to  Pedro

productivity growth comes predominantly from long term investment

This is actually exactly what an MMT-er would say.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
6 days ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

Let’s have more fun and raise rates

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
6 days ago

Iran has seen enough with Bibi’s mischievous shits and giggles pow wow in the White House.

After failed talks and repeated U.S. strikes, a growing number of voices inside Iran no longer believe diplomacy can work. Their answer is simple and brutal. Take the bull by the horn and raise the ante until the American economy itself is broken. “Make sure the U.S. economy is destroyed while Trump is the president.”
Integral to this objective is to call out the fantasists at every turn. Counter every manipulation possible.

THE HISTORICAL PLAYBOOK—>

America ends wars when its politicians finally realize they made a huge mistake. That is how Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan stopped. Either the executive branch (after Trump is removed) or Congress concludes the price is too high and the funding ends. The same logic is now being applied: force the realization that the current policy is destroying the U.S. economy, and the policy will change.
Bottom line: This is no longer about limited deterrence. This is about breaking the American economy while Trump is still in office.”

A D
A D
6 days ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

Pentagon is making adjustments such as using B-1’s with JDAM bombs (inexpensive guided ordinance) while being supported by electronic warfare planes like the EA-18 Growler.

peelo
peelo
6 days ago
Reply to  A D

I loved watching these kinds of geek-thrilling weapons system film clips during Vietnam. They were spiced with all kinds of neat names and numbers. It sure seemed persuasive and fun for a 10-year-old boy. It seemed to work for weapons procurement junkets and worked great on the Shah in the 70’s too. He couldn’t wait to write more checks.

Last edited 6 days ago by peelo
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
6 days ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

“America ends wars when its politicians finally realize they made a huge mistake. ”

Sorry but no. Politicians end them when their employer, the banker-warlord cartel, tells them to. And the latter tells them to when the likelihood of personal profits diminish and it instead starts costing them too much money personally to continue with little hope to recoup further losses.

If the wealthy were forced to pay confiscatory tax rates to balance the budget ballooning from their wars, they would end this tomorrow. Politicians, like actors, would read the new script, with lines that contradict yesterday’s script, with a straight face.

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
6 days ago

Nonsense spin from axils.

Not a “surprise” during an active war to strike someone amassing forces to attack you, that same someone who started the war.

Tom
Tom
6 days ago

I think it’s funny that he is still claiming that they’re in deep talks. The last credible thing I heard for Iran is they see no point in negotiating with a pathological liar.

This won’t go well. Iran is is extremely proud and Trump always insists on superiority as part of his deal.

Neil
Neil
6 days ago
Reply to  Tom

Trump wouldn’t keep whatever deal he strikes anyway. The whole world knows it. There will not be any meaningful agreement involving the USA until Trump is replaced by someone that will stick with an agreement.

Stu
Stu
6 days ago
Reply to  Neil

I have been saying this for quite some time now. Get Trump out of the negotiations and have him sit down and shut up. Even for just a week, and progress could possibly be made imo. They don’t hear him any longer, when he speaks. They see what he does, and it doesn’t match up, so they have lost trust & faith in him. He needs to leave the negotiations immediately!

Jon
Jon
6 days ago
Reply to  Stu

That’s not possible with Trump. He’s just too stupid. Possibly the dumbest person to ever be President. But a great con man and liar.

Pedro
Pedro
6 days ago
Reply to  Stu

If that is the remedy then he should not be President and be impeached Asap, as many of us have advocated for a while now. He’s just not qualified for the job

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
6 days ago
Reply to  Neil

Trump might be the most obvious thug but is by no means alone in his dishonorable behavior. Replacing him alone will change little.

Rogerroger
Rogerroger
6 days ago

Its the republican party machine. The whole system is designed to sway voters to keep politicians in power. Those politicians represent the very wealthy and corporations. At some point trump will be gone and some other milder version of the same person will take his place.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
6 days ago
Reply to  Neil

Regardless of whether Trump takes part or not, any agreement has to get run by Bibi.

Right now Trump appears to just be running interference for Bibi by constantly waffling back and forth.

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