The GDPnow estimate is 1.5 percent vs the Econoday consensus of 2.3 percent.
GDPNow Key Measures
- Base Forecast: 1.5%
- Real Final Sales: 2.0%
- Real Final Private Domestic Sales: 3.4%
The difference between the base forecast and real final sales is change in private inventories (CIPI) which nets to zero over time.
Contributions to GDP
Real final sales at 2.0 percent is the bottom line estimate for the economy.
Some prefer to look at real final private domestic sales. That’s a much better 3.4 percent.
The pessimists will point to the top line estimate of 1.5 percent.
I tend to follow Real Final Sales.
The Fed watches private domestic sales. If so, that’s a fairly strong number and no reason to delay hikes if they want to.
However, these are estimates.
FOMC Fed Decision Wednesday, GDP Not Until Thursday
The official GDP release by the BEA is Thursday. But the Fed interest rate decision is tomorrow.
CME Fedwatch posts a 30.5 percent chance of a hike tomorrow, with a 76.6 percent chance of a hike in September. There is no August meeting.
I doubt the Fed hikes tomorrow. I suspect the odds are more like 15 percent than 30 percent.
Although Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will try hard to not make any forecasts, his press conference statements will set a tone.
This quarter includes two wars which are hugely expensive, and the bill goes to the credit card.
They are also inflationary, requiring top quality components.
Overlaid over government military spending, the adjusted GDP would decline.
meanwhile Money maybe useless by 2036 – Elon Musk
https://dailytrust.com/money-maybe-useless-by-2036-elon-musk/
Are these annualized rates?
Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks are still down since last July.
1.5% my ass. The dollar is compound devalued so much that even if inflation was 0% things are still 50% higher than they should be. Just because the rate of change is diminishing, the nominal is high. These people are so cheap they thought they could split the atom.
They’ll hold, the Fed will be mysterious, which matches their cluelessness in general. We need a hike but that means we won’t get one. Don’t just do something, stand there!