Economists expected ISM manufacturing to improve to a nearly flat 49.5. Instead the index fell to 47.8 from 49.1.
Please consider the February 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® emphasis mine.
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in February, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.8 percent, down 1.3 percentage points compared to January’s reading of 49.1 percent.
“This is the 16th consecutive month of contraction. Four out of five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI® are in contraction territory, up from three in January.
The New Orders Index dropped back into contraction territory after one month in expansion. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, three (Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment) registered growth in February,” says Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management®.
A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
The ISM is a diffusion index. Direction is more important to the index than magnitude.
For example, if 25 companies reduced their workforce by 100 workers each, another 25 companies each hiring one person would offset.
+1 and -250 net to zero in a diffusion index.
We’re headed for a depression or a major war.
My goodness. Who would have thought that advocating for people to work towards a better life would result in such twisted replies.
You’re tone deaf
Its not fair
Its genetics
You’re stomping on the poor
Its not their fault
Not everyone is capable of getting ahead
You’re bragging or gloating
The pie isn’t big enough for everyone to get their fair share
Its the Feds fault; or govt; or corporations; or banks; or capitalism; etc; etc
What a bunch of whiners and complainers. When did Americans become such wimps?
Life isn’t fair. And it never will be.
But at least in the US, people have a better chance than anywhere else in the world to make a better life for themselves. If you don’t think so, then I suggest you move to where you think it will be better.
My message remains the same as always. Get the best skills and education possible and never stop improving yourself. Work hard. Save. Invest. Become as wealthy as you can. Make a better life for yourself and those you care about. Stop complaining about the impediments in your way and figure out how to overcome them. Stop expecting some politician to make your life better; they won’t. It’s all up to you.
In addition; it isn’t just about money or wealth. I spend far more time working on my health and family matters than on my wealth. But I don’t come here to talk about those things.
My reason to follow Mish’s excellent blog is to gain economic insights that will help me grow my wealth.
It appears that is not the reason that many others are here. Many seem to be here to waste their time on their personal political or cult beliefs and to whine and complain endlessly like children. Time to grow up folks. Life is hard. If you want a better life, stop complaining and start working towards that goal.
Then hopefully, you won’t have to complain about the price of groceries, or anything else.
It is the bias of class stasis. Yes, folks in lower economic classes are more impacted by inflation, ever has it been so. But in the US, you can advance your station and develop better skills and experiece to move up. In fact, the effects of inflation jab one to do so.
For everyone bragging about their investments and such: enjoy it while you can. The large % that are getting slaughtered in this environment, having Kelloggs for dinner and dropping their family dog off at the pound when the rich neighborhood is 2 blocks away, are probably going to have something to say about it before long the way things are going. I’m afraid violence in the big cities is going to start spreading outward. All the illegals pouring in won’t help. I heard some places were emptying out their prisons and sending them thru our border. I doubt high stock prices are going to save you from a hammer to your head. If everything is about $ and nothing else we’re headed for hell. Good luck.
In 2023 2 trillions RRP rotated to bills, notes and the Mag 7. Meta and AMZN made a new all time high. MSFT, NVDA and TSLA, a lower high. AAPL and Googl were still down.
There is both supply-side and demand-side inflation. The FED is confronted with both.
Lags are constants. Powell is doing an exceptional job holding the money stock constant. We’ll see a drop in rates in the last half of 2024.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240301a.htm
I caught a person shop-lifting at a Local Walmart two weeks ago. I tapped her on the shoulder and said: “I saw that. There are cameras. Be careful.” This is in Cal where we are visiting the folks.
She said: “I do not care. I keep my stealing very light, and below $950 which is hard to get above stealing Meat and expensive Condiments. Fuck Walmart and their excessive Profits.”
She is right: WMT beat estimates and topped profits numbers last quarter. People do NOT like getting screwed over by retailers – – so, they STEAL.
Interesting times, these.
High priced inflation is a natural consequence of voting for corrupt big government Democratic socialists and their unions. I grocery shop at non union mom and pop or ethnic stores where prices are half of the big unionized chain stores. Theft also increases prices. Therefore prices are higher in the central city and on the bad side of town. Vote for conservative candidates to lower your grocery prices.
KTLA last nite had a story of some SEIU Union members protesting a lack of safety for fast food workers.
“Members of the California Fast Food Workers Union are demanding that L.A. City leaders implement a protection plan that would force fast food restaurant owners to provide security and training on how to handle dangerous customers.”
As i sat watching, i was thinking that they voted for this situation. They are doing it to themselves. They should stop voting Democrat.
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-fast-food-workers-walk-off-job-demanding-protection-from-dangerous-customers/
We got stuck with multinational monopolies and oligopolies by Judge Bork’s ruling decades ago that eviscerated antitrust enforcement.
Competition lowers prices, raises workers’ share of GDP vs profits, stimulates innovation … in the long run it leads to better GDP growth and overall better profits. But the current Establishment fears the short term profit hit and loss of corporate power.
Stealing isn’t the answer. We need the Supremes to restore Sherman-Clayton and all the rest of antitrust law. A free economy should give consumers multiple choices for everything, not just 2 or 3 or 5 oligopolies.
Maybe you should’ve told her about Walmarts new AI that tracks your repeated shoplifting and when all her free stuff totals over $950 she’ll get hauled in.
ISM may be down but the following are up:
1. Oil back above $80 – congrats to everyone on the oil money train. I’m still holding DVN, BP and others and collecting dividends and selling calls when I can.
2. Bitcoin is up huge – congrats to everyone that boarded the gbtc money train.
3. S&P 500 up – congrats to everyone that boarded the S&P 500 money train.
4. Tech stocks are up huge – congrats to anyone on this train – I missed this one.
5. TLT & T-bills – TLT is up from $80s where I told people here to buy it. Congrats if you road the money train. T-bills still paying 5% at the ‘roach motel’ as Micheal Engel puts it but roach money is good money.
That’s lots of money trains that I told you guys about. Too bad if you’d rather sit and whine than ride the money train so a solid choo! choo! to everyone onboard.
Oh and I almost forgot, the next train is the insurance money train, there is still time to hop on some good values out there. Avoid health insurance though….
Guess what I’m doing this weekend? I’m looking to for more money trains. Any ideas from this cantankerous group?
Choo! Choo!
When is ENOUGH ENOUGH? Money is not everything. Sure, it is nice to have RIGHT UP TO THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT MOMENTS OF YOUR LIFE: 1) When you finally wake up to the fact that you are not nearly as Smart as you THOUGHT you were. 2) When You feel terrible and are told you are gonna die without some sort of BIG change (mine was surgery).
So, having learned that I was “PRETTY SMART” – – I learned, by the way when to use RODE versus ROAD – – but SICKNESS change my outlook and I then simply WORKED HARDER on my health and studied more.
If the choice is between money over whining I choose money. Clearly you choose whining so whine away. I just wish we had an IGNORE button so i don’t have to read through it.
And in the end, we all die, there is no escaping it so do what makes you happy in the interim.
You sound like a cocky young man who just joined my Options Group who is seeking methods to HEDGE his profits. The difference between you and he is that HE IS NOT COCK-SURE and BRAGGING, but he is GRATEFUL and WANTS THAT GRATITUDE to be INSURED.
So, I am guessing that you are have not looked at a chart lately? JUST ASKIN’.
BE CAREFUL: trains get DERAILED at times. It sounds like you do not know that or just forgot to balance your comments with reality components.
The choo choo trains might go down hill.
Those who parked in t-bills might have rotated to Mag7 and creepto, buying them from the strong hands.
But which train are you ROADING Michael?
SPX [1M] : Mar/Apr might be red. SPX [1W] : after DM #18 on Mar 20 SPX might start a correction. The first line of defense : 4,800/4,600.
The DJI and the Dow Transport disagree. It isn’t ROADING
This is what happens when the government believes its own economic propaganda. Soaring public and corporate debt, debt-driven consumption, big government and health care do not a sound economy make. This shows yet another piece of evidence that private investment is being crowded out. And let’s get real here, the numbers on both inflation and unemployment are far worse than the official (massaged, distorted) numbers show. ShadowStats, all he does is use the old government formulas and from the discrepancy between the old and the new, that helps you understand how garbage the models have become.
If you watch ShadowStats for over 20 years you discover it’s BS.
The government numbers are too low, but Shadow is much too high.
Anyway, the large fraction of people living paycheck to paycheck don’t need anyone else to tell them what their inflation rate is.
New orders, production, suppliers deliveries, backlog orders, new export orders : stalled. Employment : shrinking faster, cutting cost. Inventory and customer inventory are almost depleted.
Iran’s ISM : every time the Hooties turn on their expensive radars NATO knocks them down. Hundreds of drones and missiles missed their targets, wasted. New supply is difficult. Oil sales are down. They compete with Putin in a slowing Chinese economy.
Yemen and Lebanon are starving. They don’t want war. They are annoying, bc Iran cannot pay them any more. They are seeking western “dividends” and looking for respect.
“Oil sales are down.”
Where?
Iran barter with China. Paper oil doesn’t matter.
In other words, consumption is still growing. Right?
Hooties threats.
Which are not affecting consumption.
the economy is contracting so stocks are up…..a textbook example of simple logic, since the 2008 BFC, that is ….
Zimbabwe Syndrome
SPX [1W] : The trend is strong. SPX might start a stopping action. Hope u keep what u made, otherwise the market might take it back.
“MIGHT” is an incorrect work. “ALWAYS” is the term that I use when Teaching Students about Charts and Options (Derivatives).
MIGHT is a loaded term….and always is guaranteed.
The stock market is a casino. U never know what’s coming next. If u are
good technically u might beat the casino in the long run. Your bets “ALWAYS” win is wrong. There is no surefire. U can lose 50%/70% of your bets and still make money.
Life is a casino. You can’t go through it without taking some calculated risks.
I appreciate this site for its economic analysis. Though there is a tendency here to focus on the economic negatives. But that’s okay. We all look at things differently.
However, whether the economy is growing or not, there are always opportunities to make profits. You just have to be able to focus your attention on those opportunities.
Which is why I tend to pay far more attention to the economic analysis here, rather than the political analysis. I want to focus on the things that help me make profits.
Keep up the good work Mish.
My main long term scenario remains in place. The economy remains resilient, and continues its slow growth. Oil companies are still gushing cash flow, paying down debt, buying back shares and raising dividends. Though some are pursuing acquisitions in order to improve efficiencies and/or extending reserves. They do not need higher oil prices to keep doing well. At current oil prices, they should be returning 15+% to shareholders each year.
Papa, any oil stock you like next quarter? I want to ROAD the money train with you.
Lots of good oil stocks. Some have run up recently. Some have not.
The larger caps have done well like FANG, CHRD, CNQ. Mid caps like SU, MEG also well. Smaller caps have lagged. Like these Canadian small caps that I like. CPG, WCP, BTE, HWX, TVE. Though the small caps are riskier.
s&p is up 25% in the last 4 months. Hope you didn’t miss out. It’s up 45% since Biden was elected. Hope you didn’t miss out.
Lots of things are up like groceries for instance…or havent you heard?
If you were making big returns on your investments, you probably wouldn’t be worried about grocery prices.
Your comment comes off as tone deaf to me.
What if you don’t have investments other than earning interest on a savings/MM acct or a CD or bond, and you’re getting screwed because the positive rate of return being earned, if any, doesn’t offset inflation? Then, grocery prices might matter.
It isn’t fair to lower income earners and those on a fixed income to have been getting screwed the last 16 years. The effect of inflation has been such that it steals the purchasing power that their prior labor provides them. They spent a portion of their life laboring to earn the resources, and the central bank then stole the purchasing power of those resources through manipulation of the money supply and interest rates.
When you take someone’s life, it is murder. When you steal a portion of the life someone spent laboring for resources through moneychanger tricks, some might call that theft; I call it murder lite. Congratulations on being sophisticated enough to still be earning money in this distorted, schizophrenic economic environment that exists thanks to the Fed and the control Wall Street has over the Fed, but realize that some people who may not be as sophisticated or intelligent as you should be able to earn a positive rate of return in less sophisticated, less risky investments. Their labor, the time they spent laboring, and enjoying the fruits of their labor matter to them just as the next person.
Regarding your opinion that Mish’s economic analysis is overly negative. People who are not as sophisticated and/or who are on a fixed income and/or who earn less and spend a significant portion of.income on rent, groceries, gas, car payment, insurance, etc., are getting screwed by inflation and have been. The economic data (jobs numbers, housing data, GDP doesn’t match GDI, etc) cannot be believed. The government fiscal situation is a train wreck that we know is coming. If you would care to tell us all how the economic picture is a glass half full instead of boasting about how sophisticated an investor you are, then please, by all means. I am all ears.
What is your point? Instead of complaining about not having any investments maybe it would be better for you to find ways to get some and why would you attack PapaDave for stating the obvious? If you have enough income of course you would not feel affected by food inflation.
People like to complain. There’s a lot of complaining in this comment section about things we can’t control. Which is a waste of time.
Thanks for the support Doug.
Is your motto “People and Planet before Profits”?
Thanks for your reply Tenacious D.
My comments are consistent with my personal philosophy of life: you get out of it what you put into it.
Is it easy to “get ahead”, or become “well off”? Nope. There are always impediments in everyone’s life beyond our control. Bad luck. Bad timing. Etc.
However, if you live in the US, you are already one of the luckiest people on the planet. You live a country that provides the best opportunity in the history of mankind for Joe/Jill average to make a better life for themselves and those they care about. But it’s up to each of us to take advantage of this good luck and not squander it.
“It isn’t fair to low income earners”
Life isn’t fair. It never has been and never will be. Wake up and smell the coffee. The sooner you get over blaming the Fed, the govt, the corporations, etc, the sooner you can focus your attention on making a better life for yourself and those you care about.
Regarding “negativity”. One of the impediments that people put in their own way is their own negativity. By always focusing on the negative, it distracts you from looking for the opportunities that exist. After all, many entrepreneurial people become successful by looking for ways to solve the problems that are staring everyone in the face, while others look for something or someone to blame for those problems.
Self reliance and thrift are good but we must also keep in mind that it’s impossible for the economy to yield enough surplus for Everyone to comfortable retire on their investments age age 40 or 50 or even 60.
As an additional point, it’s a matter of genetics – not culture, education or personal free will – that around half the human population will be unable to save in any significant way. Stomping on them only shows you have neither heart nor soul.
There’s only one successful economic system. There’re people who make things happen, those who watch things happen, and those who wonder what happened. That’s it.
Who said I was worried about my grocery bill? Nice straw man try for a spin but no cigar for you today.
Those who gloat while others suffer,
Face the guillotine soon enough-er
I was taught to work hard and you’ll be successful (by your own definition of success). I don’t have a problem with successful people. However, when people gloat to strangers it signals to me that they are missing something in thier life. They are desperate to be noticed.
What these folks don’t understand is that airing thier successes out to every Tom, Dick, and Harry will often draw the gaze of individuals who they’d rather not be noticed by (which is what I believe your comment was getting at Wisdom Seeker).
That’s why people used to keep thier mouths shut about thier private money matters. I certainly do. There’s nothing wrong with being proud of your accomplishments, in fact, you should be. However, its bad taste to constantly run up to strangers and tell them about it.
Papa wasn’t gloating. And Papa is anonymous. Papa told you how it’s done and he told you to get off your behind and do it or else you will be poor and hungry.
Yep. Thanks KGB.
Everyone here was still busy waiting for a recession/market crash, as usual. I generally assume they’re all still working their day jobs. Bummer.
It could be 0 and fraud markets would still go up at least a half a percent each day……..
The market prices only keep pace with inflation.
Recession! Drink!