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Manufacturing ISM Contracts for the 5th Month, With New Orders Falling Rapidly

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4 comments on Manufacturing ISM Contracts for the 5th Month, With New Orders Falling Rapidly

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Chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management ® ISM® 

Please consider the March 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

“The March Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.3 percent, 1.4 percentage points lower than the 47.7 percent recorded in February. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a fourth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The Manufacturing PMI® is at its lowest level since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 44.3 percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the figure of 47 percent recorded in February. The Production Index reading of 47.8 percent is a 0.5-percentage point increase compared to February’s figure of 47.3 percent. The Prices Index registered 49.2 percent, down 2.1 percentage points compared to the February figure of 51.3 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 43.9 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the February reading of 45.1 percent. The Employment Index continued in contraction territory, registering 46.9 percent, down 2.2 percentage points from February’s reading of 49.1 percent. 

Every component of the ISM is in contraction. Prices are finally in contraction and the ISM suggests the overall economy has been contracting for four months. 

Recession Evidence Mounts 

MishTalk Video, What’s the Real Risk Now, Is it Inflation or Deflation?

Given the obvious inflationary forces, that may seem like a silly question, but please consider this video discussion: What’s the Real Risk Now, Is it Inflation or Deflation?

The short answer is Credit Freezes Are Highly Deflationary. See the above link for details and discussion. 

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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Mike Shedlock

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Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
3 years ago
My company was told by a customer the production run would end in x months. The business team was able to convince them to spread the final order over a longer period of time so that once demand came back there would be far fewer retooling costs and quality issues. There are some other projects that look promising, but there is still a lull until they come to fruition.
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8dots
8dots
3 years ago
MCD takeout windows will be soon closed. Layoffs in repetitions. MCD owners equity is negative. Debt is over 100% of total assets. MCD made a suspicious new all time high today.
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Christoball
Christoball
3 years ago
Which countries are already in recession???
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HippyDippy
HippyDippy
3 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
All of them with a central bank.
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