The divergence between jobs and employment widens again. Manufacturing jobs declined by 35,000 due to strike related activity. Revisions were negative.
Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Payroll Report for October.
Key Takeaways
- The gain of 150,000 jobs was weaker than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 179,000.
- The BLS estimates the UAW strike is responsible for 33,000 of the 35,000 jobs lost.
- Government jobs rose by an outsized 50,000. Last month, government jobs rose by 73,000.
- Employment fell by 348,000 increasing the already wide divergence between jobs and employment. In August, employment rose by 222,000 but unemployment rose by 514,000.
- The civilian noninstitutional population is 267,642,000. Employment is 161,222,000. That means there are over 106 million people age 16 and older who are not working at all.
- Because of annual benchmark revisions, the way the BLS reports revisions, and the relatively small sample sizes of monthly jobs reports, we cannot, with strong confidence, suggest these reports portray an accurate picture of either jobs or employment.
Nonfarm Payrolls and Employment Levels
Starting around March of 2022, a divergence between employment and jobs became very noticeable. And since June of 2023 full time employment is down (green highlights) by 366,000.
Payrolls vs Employment Gains Since March 2022
- Nonfarm Payrolls: 5,499,000
- Employment Level: +2,894,000
- Full Time Employment: +1,906,000
Payrolls vs Employment Gains Since March 2023
- Nonfarm Payrolls: 1,451,000
- Employment Level: +330,000
- Full Time Employment: +154,000
Of the 894,000 rise in employment in January, 810,000 was due to annual benchmark revisions. And the BLS does not say what months were revised, just poof, here you go. Again, we cannot, with strong confidence, suggest these reports portray an accurate picture of either jobs or employment.
Job Report Details
- Nonfarm Payroll: +150,000 to 156,923,000 – Establishment Survey
- Civilian Non-institutional Population: +214,000 to 267,642,000
- Civilian Labor Force: -201,000 to 167,728,000 – Household Survey
- Participation Rate: -0.1 to 62.7% – Household Survey
- Employment: -348,000 to 161,222,000– Household Survey
- Unemployment: +146,000 to 6,506,000- Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.1 to 3.9% – Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force: 416,000 to 99,914,000 – Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment: -0.1 to 7.0% – Household Survey
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Monthly Revisions
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 62,000, from +227,000 to +165,000.
- The change for September was revised down by 39,000, from +336,000 to +297,000.
- With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 101,000 lower than previously reported.
Part-Time Jobs
- Involuntary Part-Time Work: +218,000 to 4,283,000
- Voluntary Part-Time Work: +387,000 to 21,539,000
- Total Full-Time Work: +326,000 to 134,493,000
- Total Part-Time Work: -670,000 to 26,666,000
The above numbers never total correctly due to the way the BLS makes seasonal adjustments. I list them as reported.
Hours and Wages
This data is frequently revised.
- Average weekly hours of all private employees was flat at 34.3 hours.
- Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees fell 0.1 hour to 33.2 hours.
- Average weekly hours of manufacturers fell 0.1 hours from a negative revision to 40.0 hours.
An overall decline or rise of a tenth of an hour does not sound line much, but with employment at 160 million, it’s more significant than it appears at first glance.
A year ago average total private weekly hours were 34.6 hours.
Hourly Earnings
This data is also frequently revised. Here are the numbers as reported this month.
Average Hourly Earnings of All Nonfarm Workers rose $0.07 to $34.00. A year ago the average wage was $32.62. That’s a gain of 4.2%.
Average hourly earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Workers rose $0.10 to $29.19. A year ago the average wage was $27.96. That’s a gain of 4.2%.
Year-over-year wages are finally keeping up with inflation after underperforming for many months.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate hit a 50-year low in January and April of 3.4 percent. It’s now 3.9 percent. That’s the highest since January of 2022.
Alternative Measures of Unemployment
Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.
The official unemployment rate is 3.9%.
U-6 is much higher at 7.2%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.
Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. Some dropped out over Covid fears and never returned. Still others took advantage of a strong stock market and retired early.
The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement (need for Social Security income), and discouraged workers.
Birth Death Model
Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report.
The birth-death model pertains to the birth and death of corporations not individuals except by implication.
For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.
The model is wrong at economic turning points and is also heavily revised and thus essentially useless.
Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey
- The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number. It is based on employer reporting.
- The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures employment, unemployment and other factors.
If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.
Looking for job openings on Jooble or Monster or in the want ads does not count as “looking for a job”. You need an actual interview or send out a resume.
These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.
Expect a Long But Shallow Recession With Minimal Rise in Unemployment
Given hiring pressures and boomer retirements, I commented on July of 2022 Expect a Long But Shallow Recession With Minimal Unemployment Rise
That has been and accurate assessment of the strength of jobs.
Unlike many others, I still do not expect the unemployment rate will not rise much in the next recession compared to the average recession impact.
With the clear understanding that all Government #’s are suspect by design, and after that questionable information is placed properly into the numbers, then they add their Spin and Facts as determined by them at the time (ever changing obviously).
With that understood, the numbers presented have already been manipulated, made questionable, and hence the meaning of said number is already fraudulent in nature, as far as the Actual Meaning was designated to be.
Key Takeaways
The gain of 150,000 jobs was weaker than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 179,000. > This Happens when your in an Unannounced Recession. They could have used the word: stronger (125k), in place of weaker, as it is an estimate after all.
The BLS estimates the UAW strike is responsible for 33,000 of the 35,000 jobs lost. > Again with the estimates, and again they could have said (33k) 10,000 jobs lost.
Government jobs rose by an outsized 50,000. Last month, government jobs rose by 73,000. > Outsized means “Unusually Large” so it’s meaningless if not negative next go around. See how this is played? This is “Government Economics Hedging” and it’s going to get the Country in a heap of trouble someday soon…
Employment fell by 348,000 increasing the already wide divergence between jobs and employment. In August, employment rose by 222,000 but unemployment rose by 514,000. > So the Country Lost 292,000 Jobs Last Month (this report anyway)
The civilian noninstitutional population is 267,642,000. Employment is 161,222,000. That means there are over 106 million people age 16 and older who are not working at all. > How can anybody print that with a straight face? Nobody knows those numbers to that degree or even semi close to that! 16 and older has a number? hahahaha…
Because of annual benchmark revisions, the way the BLS reports revisions, and the relatively small sample sizes of monthly jobs reports, we cannot, with strong confidence, suggest these reports portray an accurate picture of either jobs or employment. > So let me rewrite that, as to what was just stated, but more simply stated in layman terms that everyone will surly understand:
“EVERYTHING YOU JUST READ IS BULLSHIT”
exactly correct. i just scan mish’s articles on numbers from DC……and head right to commenters. it’s a joke to take the numbers seriously. please get the ignore button. some here just too annoying and dumb. i’m sure many feel that way about me. and don’t give a hoot. less then the steam off my you know what…….down votes are upvotes, and ignores are homeruns.
A better way to guage employment/unemployment is link to dailyjobcuts.com. Top of website is news stories. Link takes you to where information came from. Middle of the website has 3 columns. Left is company layoffs, middle is companies hiring, right is companies that are closing locations and bankruptcies. These #’s are increasing significantly.
The only BLS-it labor statistic worth anything is the employment number, and even that one is suspect. The real measure of employment is “real GDP”. If inflation adjusted GDP minus government, banking, and advertisement is not growing, neither is employment opportunities.
What do you expect when you change the definition of employment. Before the current administration, a full-time Uber driver was household employed but not payroll employed. Now – Yahtzee – they suddenly become payroll employed at the stoke of a pen. How many gig workers became magically employed due to that change.
Also, and I give credit to DDB for this one, changes in how layoffs are reported has pumped up payroll employment as well.
The data are simply not telling the story anymore. Dig into it just a bit and the economy has been in the tanks since COVID began – we are still in a recession
This is a great number for the Fed, inflation, and employment. Why so many government employees though?
Government beneficiaries are not gainfully employed and they do not pay taxes.
well “gainfully employed” is debateable but I do see the taxes withheld from their paycheck so lets not get hysterical.
If your complaine is most of the wage inflation is government workers and of course their more than generours health care and pensions than yes I agree
Off topic by clearly relevant,
“Two weeks after the Hamas breakout assault on Israel on 7 October, a clearer picture of what happened – who died, and who killed – is now beginning to emerge.
Instead of the wholescale massacre of civilians claimed by Israel, incomplete figures published by the Hebrew newspaper Haaretz show that almost half the Israelis killed that day were in fact combatants – soldiers or police.
Several new testimonies by Israeli witnesses to the October 7 Hamas surprise attack on southern Israel adds to growing evidence that the Israeli military killed its own citizens as they fought to neutralize Palestinian gunmen.
An Israeli woman named Yasmin Porat confirmed in an interview with Israel Radio that the military “undoubtedly” killed numerous Israeli noncombatants during gun battles with Hamas militants on October 7. “They eliminated everyone, including the hostages,” she stated, referring to Israeli special forces.”
link to sonar21.com
No children under 3 years were reported dead and those who think that in the middle of a gun fight Hamas took a break to rape some hostages…. Well let’s just say they are a bit gullible.
Another link
link to thegrayzone.com
Where’s Zardoz. We’ve got another kookoo alert on aisle 5. This time it’s Alex.
Sonar21.com now that’s a known reputable web site for sure.
Stay baked, A! & lay off the antisemitic kool-aid, bro!
Alex,
Before the Hamas attack Jewish clerics went into a Muslim holy cite and started reciting Jewish scriptures. Probably the most officious thing that can be done and they knew it. Was it the reason for the attack? Likely not but it sure didn’t help at all.
Ariel Sharone use to do this stuff all the time to assist setting them off. The whole situation reeks of Bibi taking a play right out of Ariel’s old playbook. If you get into trouble for corruption and fraud and it’s not looking good incite violence and you are the hero again.
if you are referring to Social Security beneficiaries we all paid taxes and had funds deducted while working.
Agreed. It was either a false flag or extreme incompetence. I hope it’s the later for what it portends.
If blood libels are allowed here, this is the last time I visit this blog.
Sorry, Mish.
Blood levels? Dude, I just don’t want my country to be a servant of the Israeli Lobby. How many neocon wars must we fight? What does that do to the national debt? Sorry if you find facts upsetting.
Not only are the many off topic posts left here — some offensive –but my own comment, including only BEA employment numbers that had not been included in the article, was published and then ;ater deleted.
I object to censorship, so immediately after this comment, I will permanently delete this website from my bookmarks list.
There is censorship at conservative websites. I imagine this comment will soon disappear too.
That is total bullshit! You have absolutely no understanding of the meaning of anti-semitism. Hamas is a totally demonic force who like the Unman, cares not for Palestinians, but wants to wipe Israel off the face of the earth, kill all Jews ending the Jewish race! The whole world is embracing the lie, rejecting the truth!
The Truth is 10,000 innocent Palestinians have been murdered by Israel including over 4000 kids. And the US is fight in their resupplying their weapons stocks. Calling someone evil does not make it so. By their deeds you shall know them.
The TRUST IS that Hamas is a terrorist group that wants to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. To do that, they have to go Holocaust 2.0.
The people of Gaza made their choice back in 2007 by voting them into power. And let’s not forget what they did to all the Fatah leaders / supports that lost that battle.
Israel goes to great lengths to minimize collateral damage. That’s a fact.
All you’re doing is spreading FUD and unfortunately it makes you sound antisemitic & a Hamas sympathize which may or may not be the case.
none of that is evidence
Eye witness accounts, officially released names of the dead (all Israeli sources). People believe what they want to believe. And of course the Israeli government has no need to lie to hide their incompetence.
the amerikan public is naive as phuck. nitwits here swallowed whole WMD and global war on being scary. the same nit wits believed the original story by Bibi. FFS mish, ron paul and Bibi both blurted out the truth. hamas is amerikan and israel creation. if YOU are so naive to believe Bloody Bibi did NOT know about the attack, and he wasn’t delighted at the young folks rave getting butchered, i have a bridge here that connects kings county with new york county. back stateside inflation is cumulative and raging………and dumbfuck bloody biden and the pro zionist war mongers are gonna bankrupt us quicker…………with ww3 set up. Bibi will probably be in a dungeon in 5 years time. the israelis are catching on and pissed. amerikans are idiots. just send money. for war profiteers……..no questions asked. zionism, and apartheid and genocide ain’t kosher. a t shirt i see here in very jewish hood in brooklyn.