Ukraine made significant advances against Russian troops in Ukraine helped by drones. Russia has since caught up and may even be ahead. The war of attrition will get messier.
Ukraine’s Progress Has Stalled, Only a Few Miles Since June
Ukraine’s progress against Russia has stalled. The Wall Street Journal reports the Russian Suicide Lancet Drone Is Blunting Ukraine’s Advance.
One of the scourges of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is an exploding drone with distinctive X-shaped wings that smashes into targets at more than 100 miles an hour.
In recent months, Russia’s Zala Lancet drone has repeatedly struck and disabled Ukraine’s Western-supplied armored vehicles that were supposed to break through Russian lines and turn the war decisively in Ukraine’s favor, according to Ukrainian soldiers and officials as well as videos posted on Russian social media.
On Thursday, the U.S. sanctioned the Lancet’s maker, Zala Aero. It also sanctioned the person it said was the company’s owner and the drone’s designer, Aleksandr Zakharov, as well as members of his family. The State Department said the U.S. was targeting individuals and entities associated with Russia’s war effort. Zala Aero didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Ukrainian forces have successfully used drones since the early weeks of the war, using remote-controlled aerial vehicles to spot Russian forces and direct artillery fire or drop small explosives on them.
British military intelligence authorities said Wednesday that the Lancet represents a “step change” in the way Russia uses drones.
Zala Aero told Russian media in July that it had increased the vehicle’s range from roughly 25 miles to 40 miles. On Monday, it said it had tested and was ready to mass produce a new exploding drone called the Izdeliye-54, or Italmas. The new drone can travel around 124 miles and has an enlarged warhead, it said.
Ukraine doesn’t have a domestically made equivalent to the Lancet under production at a significant scale. The U.S. has sent Kyiv the Switchblade drone, which is made by Arlington, Va.-based AeroVironment and has a broadly similar profile to the Lancet, but it isn’t used in large numbers.
Explosive Drones
Judging from the above stats it appears Russia has leapfrogged Ukraine in drone capability. This brings to mind a Star Wars analogy.
“Begun the Clone War Has“
The Attack of the Clones
Russia’s Low-Cost Explosive Drones: Lancet, Shahed and More Explained
War of Attrition Gets Messier
I said at the outset that Ukraine will not get back all the territory it lost and there would be a negotiated settlement that would please no one.
Like it or not, this increasingly appears to be the correct view.
Ukraine had a technology lead in drones that has now vanished. Arguably Russia is now in the lead. Low cost drones will reduce costs to both sides. Are tanks now obsolete?
How Long Can This Go On?
This can go on as long as the US is willing to fund Ukraine. European support is anemic.
On October 10, Germany pledged another $1.1 billion. The US has already spent $75 billion and Biden wants another $105 billion total for Israel and Ukraine of which $61.4 billion is to support Ukraine.
Meanwhile, any gains in territory will likely be at a huge cost to any side that strives for them.
The war will end as soon as US support wanes or Ukraine and Russia get tired of destruction. Neither side will win.
This is the political reality. And political reality has nothing to do with support for Putin or awarding aggression.
Arguably, it was US involvement in Ukraine that led to this disaster.
Looking Ahead
Wars are messy and so are settlements. In this case, expect neither Ukraine nor Russia to be happy about the final result.
Germany will be happy as soon as the war is over because its energy policy is in shambles due to blatant energy incompetence exacerbated by the war.
Risks of Escalation
It’s not quite as simple as I made out above. The US is involved financially in two wars not just one.
For discussion, please see Itching for War, US Bombs Syria, Sends 900 More Troops to the Mideast
It seems to me that if the US did not have troops in Syria where they don’t belong and were not invited (an act of war by the US), then the troops would not have been attacked, and thus no counterattack message would need to be sent.
To stop the attacks on US troops, I have a simple suggestion: Don’t put them where they have no business.
No good as ever came from US meddling in Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, or Afghanistan.
Getting involved in battles that are not even ours has been a financial disaster. The US cannot afford to be the world’s policeman.
Mish,
Great article! However, one small edit required… US is NOT the worlds policeman. It’s the BULLY.
Huge difference.
Apologies for the wall of text, I had paragraphs. Oops.
Anyway, my point was: don’t fight a war with Russia, because you will lose. Much better to talk to the Russians, and negotiate a comrpomise. The Russians don’t want to conquer Europe, who would, it’s full of Europeans.
Since this is a financial Blog, consider this: Putin and Xi have the West by the financial balls, and the neo-con morons who set Western policy don’t even comprehend it. There are now an estimated 1,200 Trillion $ of financial derivative contracts, and if the Persian Gulf is closed to oil traffic by angry Muslims, oil and natural gas shoot to the moon, and Western commodity and financial markets then economies implode.Gasoline at $10/gal if you can find it, diesel shortages, no natural gas in Europe. While Russia won’t take much damage, because of sanctions, they are pretty much disconnected from the West’s banking system, and gas and oil will still be cheap there. China will continue to buy oil and gas from Russia at the old lower price, they will be OK, they are trying to move away from the West financially too.
Except for the reality that China’s financial prosperity engine, depends more on American and EU consumers than it does simply on cheap oil. With the divestment and retreat from China, trade there is collapsing, and the local impact is devastating.
That is a risk if we don’t recognize that PRIVATE DEBT overwhelming our economy is the deepest problem.
The entire nature of warfare has changed, and the old ways are obsolete. Surface ships, tanks and APC’s are just big targets now.
Lancet 3 production is supposed to increase to 200,000 per year by next year. It ships in what looks like a sealed barrel holding 4 drones. THey can fly in groups of up to 20, scan areas and select their own targets, then attack them in priority, in fully automatic mode. Typical tactic is one recon drone flying at higher altitude and 4 strike drones. They navigate by terrain map in memory, so GPS style jamming does nothing. New ones have upgraded armor piercing warhead. An operator can control or watch, but is not necessary. They have an electric motor with a battery, it is very quiet and flies at 600′ you don’t see them. Very hard for radar to spot. Every time they upgrade the battery range goes up, now 80+ kilometers (50 miles).
You can watch hundreds or thousands of videos on Telegram or go to Dreizen Report. This is just one of their drones, there are many other types, they all have different purposes. The Geran2 is the Iranian copy of the US design, from the one they landed in Iran, now mass produced in Russia with upgraded engine and guidance. But they all thend to look similar as that is the proven design. Geran3 is bigger up to 1,500 km range with a 250 kg warhead.
The Onyx, naval hypersonic missile, that is way more advanced than the Kinzhal, is in service, it is the only true hypersonic missile, ship, submarine and ground launched versions, it flies at Mach 10 horizontally, no going way up and coming back down like other hypersonic missiles, up to 2,500 km range now, designed to sink ships. Kinzhal production is booming. Meanwhile the US struggles to not crash. 5 of 6 US hypersonic missile programs were cancelled, and the last one is still in design, but its a ballistic misslle glide type, like what Russia, China and even Iran already have now.
The strategic glide-vehicle type both US and Russia have had since the 1980’s, coming in from orbit at 28,000 km carrying nuclear weapons, China has it, probably Israel, North Korea, India and Pakistan are all working hard on it. There is no defense against any of these missiles, Russian and probably Chinese have active counter-measures and can take evasive action, the Kinzhal fires 6 decoy missiles as it attacks, which is the basis for the Ukrainina claim to have shot them down. US sources say on NATO system can intercept any hyper-sonic missile. The speed creates a plasma bubble making it very hard to detect, and the anti-missile can’t get there fast enough. Patriot missiles don’t work.
The defenses are in place and were effective fifteen years ago, five years ago.
30 million are not taking on 130 million. I said this from day one. Similar weapons. Similar motivation. Not that hard to figure out how this ends. It will end and end badly for Ukraine.
Anyone who thinks otherwise has zero military experience and zero understanding of what people do when they have to do it. Russia will do the thing that needs to be done. Same for any country defending their border.
I am retired but if by some miracle the US called me up to actually defend the US border I would absolutely do it. I don’t even need a paycheck.Give me the order. I would do it.FYI they contacted me a dozen time already. No. I want to defend the border and kick out illegal aliens. No deal.
5 million took on 130 million and won. Period.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War
Not sure what the fuss is about. These are no more a Wehrmacht V1 used in WW2.
The geran/shaheed drones have Russian seeker micro-electronics built into the wing, as is apparent from Ukrainian reports about salvaging these and repurposing for their own. The lancets are being built in stupendous numbers, and each generation is a jump forward. Russians have been downing 9 out of 10 UA drones with EW measures since the summer of 2022. The purported UA drone advantage never existed.
If Russia were having a problem, they can count on China, which has 10× the industrial base of the US. Drones have changed warfare, b/c they have added a third dimension: perpetual danger from the sky and ubiquitous surveillance.
…but China is broke.
Nothing has changed. The war will be settled on Putin’s terms. It was always the case.
I think the FBI warning makes it abundantly clear that you DON’T WANT it to be settled at Putin’s terms. Ukraine is FAAAAR from being his true ultimate target, it was only the beginning.
How to you know?
Ridiculous! Putin tried in vain to get the US to stop its aggressive expansion of NATO. Even after he invaded in April 2022, Putin tried to negotiate a truce, but Boris Johnson came and convinced Zelensky to continue the war. I bet he now wishes he could go back and change his fool hearty action.
Exactly Alex but obviously IVo or whatever his real name is watches way too much CNN
No, but he follows Ukrainian officers reporting straight from the frontlines, Russian media and telegram channels, and has been ignoring the MSM for the last 20 years or so. I did meet Mike once so he knows I’m real.
What a total load of BS. Please use alternative sources of information, for change. And I’m not talking about the MS.
The Russian military is weak and superior Western technology and training provided to Ukraine will allow them to expel the Russian horde
AND
The Russian are bent on controlling Europe and after they subdue Ukraine they will march on Berlin again
Can’t actually be both, but folk seem to have no issue using whichever one their argument of the day
neither are true.
Russia is certainly not interested in invading the EU considering NATO
Do you trust anything that the FBI spins? They are the same bunch of partisan criminals that lied that Hunters laptop was Russian disinformation. If they knowingly lied once about Russia then if they fooled you then shame on them. Now that they have peddled more anti Russian stuff and you believe it then shame on you if it is a lie and if by chance they are telling the truth then they are like the boy who cried wolf.
I certainly believe nothing any part of our government says 911 proved them to be liars and psychopaths
Nonsense Putin has shown great restraint considering what the neocon warmongers tried to pull off in Kiev Zelensky can go back to his drag shows to earn some shekels
Johnny “ bomb bomb Iran” must be turning in his grave That psychopath Lindsay Graham has taken over the insane asylum brigade ever since his death
Unfortunately the following sentence shows that Mike does not understand Russians at all:
The war will end as soon as US support wanes or Ukraine and Russia get tired of destruction. Neither side will win.
As soon as US support wanes, Russia will wrap it up with Ukraine and will start at its next target. Russia is openly giving their S400 to Hezbollah and supporting Hamas. If this is not “escalation” what is? You really think this will end when the US stops supporting Ukraine???? It will only ESCALATE MORE and US troops will end up fighting on several fronts: Taiwan, Israel, Europe.
Biden’s whole approach of “only giving Ukraine as much as to make sure the war does not escalate” has only convinced Russia that it is safe to escalate, and it has been doing that. Hamas’ horrible attack on Israel was coordinated with Moscow: 1) tactics were similar down to the use of drones in combination with rockets, 2) it happened the same day when Russia started major attacks on several fronts in Ukraine, 3) Russia had prepared IN ADVANCE propaganda talking points to its media, which were accidentally released 1-2 hours too early, right after the attack to Israel started, stating facts that were not yet known, 4) there were several meetings between Hamas and Russian officials prior to the attack, supposedly working on “cultural ties”, 5) Hamas itself has been praising Russia for its support, etc.
Russian mindset is not compatible with Western logic and values, and Butcha should be proof enough. It is based on the principles of the Mongols’ Golden Horde, under whom they spent hundreds of years. Killing some of one’s “friends” to keep others in line is the method of operation – wonder how so many oligarchs end up falling out of windows in Russia? Doing horrible things because “we can” in order to control others via fear is the way. I know it is hard to understand if your whole life has been spent in the West, and you are used to be “rational”.
In a way this is already a WW3 where tyrannies are fighting against Western values. Russia, a tyranny, is increasingly aligning itself with Islam, which is taking over Moscow and St Petersburg these days.
You guys need to understand the above in order to understand what is going on in the world. This is not something that the US can ignore and instead put its attention on repaving the roads. If it does that (and Trump definitely will want to do that), it will find itself suddenly in the middle of a WW3, which, through immigrants, will be carried out on its own soil as well.
Oh well… https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/fbi-director-warns-imminent-attacks-hamas-american-soil
You see how it works? Still think ignoring everything and just re-paving the roads is the way to go?
If Putin wants more than the Ukraine, please tell us:
1. What is the next target in Europe?
2. How do you know?
3. Why did Putin not recognize the referenda for independence and joining the Russian Federation in 2014 in various Ukrainian oblasts that did not recognize the putsch government? Why wait to pounce if that was the objective?
Where are the forensic details on Bucha? Names and evidence?
Not forthcoming, b/c a false flag organized by MI6 for Boris Johnson to quash the peace agreement already initialized in Apr 2020 in Istanbul. None of the details pan out. You are a dupe.
“If Putin wants more than the Ukraine, please tell us:
1. What is the next target in Europe?”
The only possible candidates, are the Baltics.
With The West in continuing, unrelenting, accelerating decay; the large Russian populations caught on out by the rather hurried and haphazard Soviet breakup may well, like their Donbassian peers, come to realise that Russia, for all its evils, is still a lesser evil than the fallen-apart manureshow they are stuck in. So, again like Donbassians, they’ll start ramping up conflict with their current overlords, until they can convince The Kremlin there is a clear opportunity there.
Russia has zero appetite for “taking” countries without at least semi friendly majorities. Doing so simply requires far too intense military presence. Even Israel don’t want to occupy Gaza anymore…. But when there are large regions of a neighbouring country where a majority is Russian and wants to have close ties with Russia; and those regions are geographically contigious with Russia; yet are being held back by governments bought by Western hacks, things skew a lot more in The Kremlins favor.
When the post Soviet borders were hastily drawn, lots of Russians ended up outside Russia. In the 90s, most of them felt lucky, since Russia was such a waste back then, while The West still had at least some traces of something worth vile left going for it. But with the West in the ensuing years having decayed to become at least as much of a waste as Russia, sentiments cannot help but change in a pro Russia direction.
So who saw the Hamas/Israel war coming and can tell us what is next for Russia to want? Yes, possibly the Baltics. But ON THEIR LIVE TV, they have also reasoned about taking Gotland from Sweden, “teaching Finland a lesson”, Moldova, Poland, etc.
And don’t forget for a moment who they perceive as their main enemy – the US! Yes, they probably will not attack the US militarily, but using proxies like Hamas against Israel may be completely possible. Who has the count of all the potential trouble-makers flowing in via the Southern border? The US’s electricity grid is as vulnerable to drone attacks as Ukraine’s.
Why I’m bothering myself to write here? You guys arguing for the “America First” concept forget that the world is not compartmentalized. I.e. it is of course possible to concentrate on repaving the roads and forget about your allies being attacked somewhere else in the world by your own main enemy, but it will have consequences! Learn from Israel and do not make the same mistake of thinking that everything is under control!
Putin will NEVER invade Poland He’s not suicidal you know
Moldova is another possibility. I forgot about them. Thanks!
Moldova is the most likely of all. And the only one made meaningfully more likely, by Russia successfully expanding into Southern Ukraine.
Again, because there are lots and lots of Russians there. Largely in their own community(ies). Now that the West’s kleptocracies offers darned near ZERO opportunities for people to be anything but robbed, harassed and abused by halfwits anymore, increasing numbers of those Russians are instead looking east.
And, Moldova is not a NATO country. So logistics are a bit easier, compared to the Baltics.
The West, as always playing their designated role as footshooters of last resort, are also doing nothing but making Moldova less safe from Russia, by continuing to facilitate the nothing-to-lose Kyiv regime threatening Crimea from Odessa. Occupying Odessa is simply beyond Russia. And carpet bombing it, Israeli style, won’t fly with Russians.
But Russia needs a safe Crimea for it’s Black Sea fleet. They may be a big country, but they have precious few ports from where they can ship their almost invariably bulky main exports.
Also, while they may not want to admit it right now, other Black Sea countries aren’t keen on a reduced Russian naval presence either. Erdogan may be the reigning world champ at being on everybody’s side simultaneously, but he’s sitting on a pressure cooker much less predictable than Russia. Without Russia as a counterweight, a future Turkey gone rogue, is a much bigger regional problem than Russia retaining control over an peninsula where darned near everyone is Russian, and want to remain Russian.
If you knew anything about Russia, you would know about its history of fighting islamic turkish hordes and fighting for survival against them, and the various resultant ethnic populations in Russia. The recent alignment is purely temporary and strategic.
No, they did not fight. The Golden Horde’s empire simply fell apart, eventually. They adopted the ideology, though.
Oops, I misread. Russia is being islamized currently. With Prigozhin gone, Gadyrov is the next in line after Putin. All weaponry confiscated from Wagner were given to his units. A giant mosque is being built right in Moscow, against the objections from locals. Most of the foods sold in Russia are now “halal”. Russians are speculating that Putin has become a muslim, seriously.
So Russia aligning itself with the muslim world against the West is what is happening currently, and therefore the support for Hamas.
You’re right it won’t end just transition to another theatre The dying US empire along with our flunkies in Western Europe will not go down without a fight Thank goodness I’m too old to get drafted
Ivo, you have it exactly right!
Putin’s true plan is to capture Ukraine then Poland, cut through Germany and slash through France and Spain to attack Portugal and take Lisbon because a warm water Atlantic port is what he really wanted all along.
Haha. How does supporting Hamas to start a war in Israel figure in?
How many other potential trouble-making opportunities there are? How about right in the US?
Israel started the war by allowing their group of terrorists to walk in undefended territory and kill people False flag obviously to rationalize the genocide of the Palestinians and steal their land and resources
If Yada (Mish) believes that drones will change everything, then that means Yada (Mish) believes that an evil Emperor is teleguiding the wars and chaos that we experience now because that is what evil Emperors do. Now does Yada (Mish) think that Putin is the evil Emperor or is he only a Sith Lord? If he is only a Sith Lord then who is the real evil Emperor? Is it Xi ? I think that an evil Emperor works better in the shadows, near Power but behind it. It is someone we do not expect. Who might it? Any ideas?
Geez. It’s Yoda, not Yada.My big error.
I think Mish’s blog is not at all Yada Yada, even if I or you disagree with him sometimes. Could be a Freudian slip, but probably not considering your sincere recognition of your huge error. Life is funny sometimes even in the midst of catastrophe.
I see Mish as Yoda and not yada. Not a Freudian slip because I respect Mish very much. He has excellent analysis overall.
I respect Mish to understand the present paradigm in economics and the money system. The problem is we require a new paradigm…unless you don’t care about the chaos that the current paradigm has always reaped on general populaces since forever.
Maybe yada yada per Seinfeld. That was a better show anyhow.
I think Mish doesn’t think real life is the movies.
If there is a Palpatine, you can bet he doesn’t dwell in either Russia or China, but somewhere between The Alps and Appalachians…
Don’t you think there’s probably a Palpatine on both/all sides? Duality, Palpatine vs Palpatine is the curse word of human history. What we need is the integrative thirdness greater oneness phenomenon AKA a new paradigm in the money system because its true that money makes the world go ’round, and with a new monetary paradigm we’ll enable money to finally accomplish the greater Good.
Why doesn’t Elon Musk invent and send up 5000 satellites with something like a Star Trek 10 mile wide phasor gun. Just zap and everybody is knocked out for 24 hrs. Then all you have to do is move in and cuff everyone. I can’t believe this or something approaching it isn’t technologically possible.
Because Elon doesn’t want to be in the weapons business. Consider that he wouldn’t turn on satellite service in Crimea when Ukraine wanted to use it to attack the Russians.
It’s not that he wouldn’t, it’s that he couldn’t.
US law does not allow companies to do business certain countries designated as enemies. Russia has such a designation after the war started so he is not allowed to turn on satellites over Crimea without express government approval. He still does not have it. If he is told to turn it on by the government he already said he would comply.
It would be far wiser to invent a reliable robotic asteroid mining and robotic space station network, and leverage gigantic resource, supply chain, and manufacturing power. Have the implicit power of a state, rather than compete to be dependent on it.
Yes, that would be and could be a possible goal if we enable the cost cutting and abundant revenue without inflation…by integrating the new monetary paradigm into the economy.
Finally, a neo-liberal with a workable plan!
😉
The US MIC, military establishment and military doctrine, is about as far from competing in this field as anyone. For all “our” trillions, we’re not only miles behind the ultimate overdogs, the Afghans. But now also behind Russia, Yemeni Houthis, Iranians, and increasingly everyone else.
The game is about quantity of ordnance delivered per dollar/ruble. Not bleeding edge, looking cool on CNN, so called “precision” weapons. Which despute all their supposed “precision”, still kills about 100 innocent kids per Hamas “warrior…..” Pretty much the same ratio as old school incendiary bombs dropped completely indiscriminately, Patton style.
Something the Israelis are obviously very much wise to….
The only ones fooled, are the usual suspects: Rank, clinical idiot morons lobbied by Locheed Martin about all the “great” “technology” they will “inveeeest” in, as long as Sir Senile keeps throwing ever more US taxpayers, along with foreign children’s lives, onto the ever growing bonfire of trivially obvious idiocies.
Putin may be almost as old as Biden, and seems to have started out in Ukraine almost as delusional. But at least he looks to have learned: No more “hypersonic,” superfantastic, ultraspastic “superweapons.” Which ALL have this in common: $20million dollars, to deliver a fire cracker at some dude’s address. In a spectacular fashion, looking all manners of cool on CNN and RT, no doubt. But still just a fire cracker. For $20 mill. So now: It’s back to what drones were always going to be about: Swarms. Distributed. The cheaper, the better.
Something pretty much every other country; from China to Turkey to Iran to Russia, and over time no doubt even Palestine; is/will-be much better at, than command-economy/zero-freedom America can even remotely hope to. Heck, the average Mexican cartel may soon be able to overwhelm whatever the US is able to throw at them at 1000 times the cost. Since, in America, it’s never about building anything which works anymore. But rather about mindless rah-rah which always boil down to nothing more than robbing taxpayers in order to hand “rent” and “financial gains” to rank retards incapable of producing anything more involved than empty Powerpoint presentations.
bingo. well said. our money is not about winning wars or defending us.
Stuki you’re pretty much right on.
Except it wasn’t George Patton, it was Curtis LeMay.
“If you kill enough of them, they stop fighting.”
If you want deep change and the end of the biggest factor in violence against their neighbor you’ll consider changing the civilization long monetary paradigm for the creation and distribution of new money AKA Debt Only. The inevitable build up of PRIVATE has always destabilized domestic economies which prompts empires to invade their neigbors in order to steal their assets. Ukraine is the bread basket of Europe. Nuf said. Prior to Rome empires used to re-stabilize their economies and placate their general polulaces via intermitent debt jubilees. Problem was, after the debts were reduced…they just built right back up again. Thats why we need a new monetary paradigm that integrates debt jubilee CONTINUOUSLY into the economy. Want to see all of the policies that resolves this problem and rejuvenates profit-making economic systems? https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07PLNJLRN/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=wisdomics-Gracenomics&qid=1552358772&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr
Payroll Employment Raw Data
2023 2022
October +1,066,000 .. +1,232,000
September +526,000 …..+524,000
August +370,000 ……+410,000
Household Employment Survey
October (-348,000) fewer jobs
September +86,000 new jobs
August +222,000 new jobs
If the format gets messed up when I post this here, the original column is on my blog:
https://honestclimatescience.blogspot.Com/2023/11/off-topic-october-employment-report.html
1) Ukrainian engineers developed drones for more than a decade. Defense :
– A garden net above the tanks or 155mm guns, or vehicles.
– Shoot them with small arms.
– ECM : Electronic Counter measures to disconnect the pilot and the drone.
2) The IDF uses tanks , Apache helicopters, planes, missile gun boats and 120 mm
mortars shells equipped with a Laser and GPS. They are inside Gaza city. Gaza is surrounded and disconnected. The IDF suffered less than 30 casualties since they crossed the border, less than 10% they suffered between Oct 7 and Oct 10.
3) The terrorist used the Ukrainian system : a drone attack, mortar followed by hand to hand combat. When they get out of the tunnels they get killed. Their wounded provide valuable data. The tunnels are destroyed above/ inside.
4) Nasrallah : Hamas war 100% Palestinian war, not a regional war. Despite his
moderate massage he intensified Hezbollah strikes.
5) Bibi got his Causus Belli. No cease fire unless Hamas release Israeli hostages.
Bibi is in no rush. He isn’t popular b/c he didn’t apologize.
6) Iran chair UN human rights council.
How would you know about 30 casualties?
It took 2 weeks to count to 212 or is it 230 hostages, of which 9 or is it 10 were American?
Now Ha’eretz is coming out with new numbers.
Hamas killed 683, more than half were police and military and services.
Of the 1400 deaths, apparently >700 were Israeli friendly fire, including military installations and whole rows of housing hit by hellfire missiles.
How many Palestinians have died?
Do you think anybody has a firm grasp of the number still buried beneath the burial?
Can we trust any reports from the hospitals there?
Anybody who thinks they have a firm grasp on facts and numbers is deluding themselves.
exactly. fog of war, and amerika pawn, israel is given all benefits of doubt as they are just a bitch we need for now. that part of world has been ruled by empires forever. now it’s us for only 80 years. israel looks to be committing brutal apartheid, and pretty close to genocide. the hamas are brutal killers who sadly are a CIA / MOSSAD creation to stop 2 states when PLO under Arafat looked close to achieving. WE amerikan empire don’t want that. we want our bitch, our pawn, our useful idiot, israel as an offshore militiray and intelligence area. and above all else profits to MIC etc……back state side and in israel…….i have been shocked at how naive mish has been on this situation.
Why are you so sympathetic towards people who would happily kill you?
And who are these people who would not happily kill you? I agree with many of your opinions but your faith in your government is misplaced.
You mean like the deep state did to over 3000 of us on 911
Please stop posting your illiterate fantastiques.
Mish is en economist What do they know about geopolitics anyway
The nets are a cheap effective development in the counter drone playbook. How long before drone warfare develops countermeasures to the countermeasures? Like pairing drones with the lead drone to shred the netting and seconds later the kill drone can strike the target?
And maybe there will be anti drone drones that are cheap and fly over the battlefield to crash into or explode near incoming enemy drones. For electronic warfare to block transmissions from the drone operator the drones can be made to operate autonomously once they approach the enemies position, they hardly need telling that any target in grid position X is a valid target.
My point is the drone and anti drone technology is fast evolving and that does not favour NATO as their defence industry is mostly based on long lead times for everything. Even something as simple as making more 155mm shells is slated to take 4 years and they are needed now. By then this war will be over and drones might have made artillery obsolete along with cavalry and battleships.
But you said the “ terrorist” only lost 30 troops WTF Weisse Engel
All of this emphasis on drones (by all sides) make the electrical grids fantastically enticing targets. I suggest preparing your respective families for life without reliable electricity.
Tim: Mad Max, 1979, is increasingly in my thoughts. 🔦✝️
Renewable energy sources for drones is a thing… there have been small marine and land robots able to consume biomass to generate energy. Then there’s hydrogen cells, ammonia, micro-nuclear, never mind “traditional renewables”. On-board generators.
Unfortunately much of what you said will probably come to pass. Next up is low cost, anti drone weapons, you can’t shoot down $1000 drones with $100,000 AA rockets. Dust off outdated AA guns like Gepards.
As long as Russia can attack civilian targets all over Ukraine without effectice conterattack there is no incentive for them to settle except for hundreds of thousands of Russian men killed & maimed – it there’s any political retribution for that. putin is trashing two countries.
Meanwhile ancient Jewish-Philistine blood fued amps up
Drones are slow and anti-aircraft guns married with radar is very good at shooting them down but you need lots of them. Energy weapon technology is taking off because of the wars and they can kill a $1,000 drone for $5 so the idea that drones will take over everything is only partially right.
Also it can go both ways. You should not assume that generals are not aware of the new environment and are looking for ways to use drones to their advantage. Presently the idea is to produce massively networked drones and put a few hundred thousand on ships who will precede to attack the enemy. Needless to say, the enemy will do the same but the enemy will need the ability to manufacture millions of them and only a few countries will be able to do that so the advantage will be with whom can build them quickly and cheaply but also who can network them and protect that network.
Doug,
Your drones sound a lot like the tiny ones that attack in the Michael Crichton book “Prey”. Sadly, I think that is the future. Kind of bleak.
I guess to win that you need a well developed industrial base and nearby supply chains. That might not favor the US.
We got a well enough industrial base to build lots and lots of sophisticated drones. So does China and Europe. Russia also but to a much less extent. They suck at electronics. The drone that Mish mentioned is not terribly flexible and contains much fewer options of attacking than the Switchblade 600.
Little Dougie running his pathetic mouth again Sad
Yes… wars are won and lost in manufacturing and supply chains… and supply chains includes people (and training infrastructure), food, and energy.
It’s like the fire triangle – the war triangle… take one away, and you have a winner.
I agree that they will build massive swarms of drones. But why should they cost $1000 each? Build a mother drone for a few thousand with the capability of flying many miles to approach the target and then like a cluster bomb it disgorges hundreds of simple low cost drones of various capabilities. A mini drone with the ability of a mosquito to detect CO2 emissions of people breathing, a mini drone with attraction to heat , another to metal, another to ?? Each carrying a small bomblet with explosives, or nerve agents or dye markers or whatever. Simple mass production would get their cost down to a few dollars each so it doesn’t matter if anti drone technology takes out 99% of them as a million dollar swarm with a few hundred thousand mini drones will still get a few thousand mini drones on target. And like a hail of metal from a machine gun some of those few thousand drones will find and strike their target.
That sort of cheap mass production with profits measured in cents per drone favours the Chinese especially but also the Russians, NK, India and others. Think the US arms industry can compete or will they continue to push high tech high maintenance stuff with long lead times and fat profit margins?
Russia has been pulverising Ukraine with only part of its capabilities and will decide what the Ukrainian surrender terms will be. Will the US accept it has lost yet another war?
Neal, it’s obvious that you have successfully avoided any contact with engineering, mathematics, and apparently even science. For which part of the Government do you work?
Apparently, Biden’s handlers have no clue what shyte they stepped into. They dispatched the old chap to the Middle East where he was supposed to be an “impartial” peace maker. Then shyte happened, and nobody except Bibi wanted to see him. The handlers could have saved the disaster by having him to land in Italy, walk some old town with cafes, lick a cone of gelato…you know, to collect the old frail chap sympathy vote…
Biden writing a blank check for Nutty Yahoo is why Arab leaders refused to see him. Instead of being a statesman, he enabled the psychopaths leading Israel. Without the US those bombs wouldn’t be falling on Gaza butchering thousands of innocent civilians.
Is it really so hard to understand that two wrongs don’t make a right?
Lots of heat but little light here. Why? Because almost everyone here is stuck in one or the other side of a duality…and no one has interest in what will create a thirdness greater oneness AKA a new paradigm not just in the economy but in geo-strategy as well.
Well at least I’m not delusional and think anything I write here will cause a paradigm shift in the powers that be. That requires $$s to bribe our political class. It has worked wonders for Israel.
If a set of policies that inverts the realities of the current paradigm and mathematically resolves the deepest problems of the economy is delusion…then so be it. Have you studied the signatures of imminent and accomplished paradigm changes? I’ll bet not. I have and I do know what I’m talking about.
Paradigm changes force elites to cooperate, some willingly, some unwillingly. APPLIED ideas/paradigms punctuate progress in human history and are all about isolating a single operant/most effective concept whose integration into the system/body of knowledge/area of human endeavor changes the entire pattern under analysis.
And don’t forget Epstein and Ghislane They did their part in providing children to people like Dershowitz and Bill Clinton And by the way he didn’t kill himself
sure son !
There really isn’t any right. There is only might.
The situation there is that one side has to win, and the powers in the world have to decide which one, and accept the consequences.
When Islam came, it didn’t negotiate it massacred and imposed its will on those it conquered. It is an ideology of conquest and of power, and it will always seek to expand where it can. Refusing to destroy islam, is a choice. No religion or ideology has a right to exist. Many religions and ideologies have been destroyed throughout history. Creative destruction is part of human evolution.
All ethnic groups have a homeland, somewhere they originated, somewhere to go to, somewhere to be sent to. Supporting Israel’s right to exist is to assert that general concept. Countries of Europe with their autochthonous identities understand this, even if new world countries do not.
“All ethnic groups have a homeland, somewhere they originated, somewhere to go to, somewhere to be sent to.”
I remember studying this.
We all came from Africa.
Gaza civilians tolerated Hamas and its terrorist philosophy. Other Arab countries despise Hamas as an Iranian puppet. When wars start , civilians are not exempt. Explain that to Hamas.
You are incorrect …
Russia has already won … Ukraine will not be joining NATO any time in the near future … Russia has taken control of the areas that are Russian speaking … and all the US sanctions on Russia have only made Russia stronger … and Russia has shown the West that they are formidable power not to be screwed around with … whether we like it or not that is definitely a win for Russia if you don’t believe the western propaganda … Ukraine is a shadow of what it once was with not much future and a declining population ….
Russia can no longer use Sevastopol for the Black Sea Fleet and soon Novorossiysk will become unusable as well. Then what we have is Russia’s oil exports through the Black Sea will depend on Ukraine’s good will. For the moment we prefer the oil to flow but that might not last.
Russia has at least 4 to 1 population advantage. Even assuming Ukraine better than 1 to 1, quickly running out of manpower. Unless western troops deployed (they wont), inevitable. Predict once US comfortably tied down in Middle East, Russia takes entire Black Sea coastline.
We are not tied down in the ME at all. If Iran attacks Israel we would, but Iran won’t attack Israel to save Russia so all of Nato’s assets are free now as well as its industrial might to arm Ukraine. Russia has more people but they also have a lot of territory to defend from exterior enemies and those within.
That’s not really very realistic. Ukraine lacks the capacity to project power.
The result of this futile war is going to be the hollowing out of Ukraine as a country.
Exports through the Black Sea depend far more on Turkey, who is a pretend NATO member. Why else would Russia align itself with Turkey’s position on Israel?
Russia, despite having conflicts with muslim ethnic groups in breakaway states, has aligned itself with muslim states to get it’s oil out, and maintain it’s presence in the eastern Mediterranean. China has pretty much replicated that to get its oil.
There is of course the Caspian, and Central Asia, which helps Russia and China, and India, and Iran… it’s their energy nexus. It would make sense for Moscow, Peking, and Delhi to team up to build high speed land links across central Asia to avoid maritime disruption of trade.
If Ukraine tries flexing its will too much they will lose Odessa and the entire Black Sea.
I see how easily people can be “propagandize” without much effort!!!
Russian ships and subs continue to operate out of Sevastopol!!
Turkey just pulled the bulk of their Navy out of the Black Sea, heading toward Israel!!!
sore loser’s talk !!
Absolutely. Mish is living in a fantasy world if he thinks “neither side will be happy with a settlement”. Russia will be perfectly SATISFIED. Thanks for the truth.
Joss is 100% correct. Is was stupid to think a small country can beat a much larger country in a war. Especially Russia who has advanced military capabilities. They have hypersonic missiles, we don’t. Their electronic warfare is as good, if not better than ours ( and do we supply our best equipment to Ukraine jeopardizing our capabilities by allowing reverse engineering?) They have 5th generation fighters. Are we going to supply them f35s and f22s? They have excellent air defense and anti ballistic defenses. The Lancet has been in the field for a while now. Not sure why Mish brings this up now unless they have reached some large scale manufacturing goal. The main problem with the Ukrainian offensive is not the lancet. They are attacking well armed troops in dug in and fortified positions without air support. They are brave men but they are being sacrificed for minor gains in turf. This was always a war of attrition. Ukraine’s and by default NATO’s and the US’s munition stockpiles have been depleted. Ukrainian casualty rate is 5 to 10 times Russian`s. And they are now only a country of 19 million. Millions have left including many young men not wanting to be cannon fodder.
This stupid war has succeeded in killing 500,000 Ukraine’s and destroyed their country. Russia has already annexed 3 new regions and unless this stop soon they may end up annexing Kharkov and Oddessa, both of which are also historically Russia.
All you saps who watch the MSM are feeding on war propaganda designed to make you think victory is possible so the evil people in DC can go on funding and sacrificing Ukrainians to hurt Russia. Unfortunately, the whole neocon project has failed. Russia is more strong militarily than when it started the war and most of the world is in Russia’s camp. The mass murder is Gaza is just feeding the narrative of how two faced and duplicitous the US is. I do not want to see this happen to my country. But unfortunately graft and corruption has destroyed this once great nation.
correct. mish is naive. our “wars” and department of war, have nothing to do with defending us citizens. it is about making money for the C suites at MIC, wall street, and how people go to DC and make tens of millions. this is a nihilist empire which is crumbling. the crux of problem is the financiers and war industry are the ruling class. when nations stop caring for the land and industry and people, it’s over. not if. just when. and the real problem is the nihilists who vote, just vote themselves. the amerikan people from bottom to top are to blame. combination of naive like mish, and outright evil bastards…….to look in the mirror is the hardest thing. we all vote and let them get away with it. i was at a protest in barcelona spain in late 2019. 500,000 plus protesters for a full week over a conviction of catilonia separatist politicians convicted. you can’t get one tenth that here to do anything and we have 7 times the population. it’s over girls. empire crumbling. obvious to me that russia got the area they originally wanted, summer of 2022. nobody here really cares. just huge war profiteers made out and small time hustlers selling nit wits who bought ukraine flags………
You’re spot on when you talk about finance being ultimately behind not only our wars but the reason why we can’t have stability. But you have to get outside of all the unresolvable dualities/problems that finance’s monopoly paradigm enforces.
We need an integrative thirdness greater oneness which is one of the major signatures of paradigm changes. Everything points to it.
I’ll see your duplicitous (which I like very much) and raise you a mendacious.
So much nonsense in Alex’s post, and it gets 19 upvotes!
Bizarre
So we are to consider your Russian propaganda credible. Anymore victories like this and Russia will collapse. If Ukraine had air power , Russia forces would have collapsed.
Amazing if you just speak the obvious truth and it’s not rabidly pro Ukraine you are automatically branded a Russian propagandist Please stop already
“On Thursday, the U.S. sanctioned the Lancet’s maker, Zala Aero. It also sanctioned the person it said was the company’s owner and the drone’s designer, Aleksandr Zakharov, as well as members of his family.”
Beats Saturday Night Live for comic value, even though it’s a 100th rerun.
The Journal just recently also ran a video story of the USA’s increased interest and manufacturing of drones for our military. The increased capabilities of these — unmanned, munitions-carrying, long range, easy to program and guide, power-packed lethal low cost entities — are both amazing and frightening at the same time.
And….by the way…. new sanctions on a Russian citizen? That strategy was so… 2022.
This is why expensive ‘last’ war stuff like Tanks and increasingly Fighter Planes, Helicopters and eventually Warships no longer makes sense.
You’ll win the war with Drones and another automated ground and sea equipment (soon enough AI controlled if they don’t have it already). Only after the war is won and the mop up operation (or fortifying operation) begins will tanks and planes with actual humans enter the fray because the cost of losing those (including lives) is so high.
Nay, these slow moving craft could easily be taken out by a sensor controlled flak gun.
Have you seen the new AI sensor anti flack gun drone?
Well if it’s AI it must be wonderful beyond all belief! Perhaps we can replace are dipshit leaders with new AI manikins that are trained to turn down AIPAC bribes and put the American people first for once.
Things might be getting interesting on the Lebanese front. Is Russia providing Hezbollah with more advanced weaponry like surface to air missiles?
https://youtu.be/IUQovugDFRI?si=MvxOMN5ZwfINXmw1
Perhaps if Israel got a real taste of fear, they might stop doing stupid things like this.
https://youtu.be/QihoBuGRVwU?si=kiPDvq2rAP6scD85
Sure why wouldn’t they since NATO/ US has been supplying Ukraine the same since vid knows when
Wars are won and lost in supply chains and manufacturing.
Supply chains includes people, and food, and energy.
Ukraine is running out of all of them.
“Automated vehicles” can’t be left alone, they must always have a killcord, because of the risk of malfunctions in control that can result in attacking their own side or civilians, never mind the risk of capture and reverse engineering.
The training needed for designing, building, and maintaining this equipment takes a few years, never mind operating experience. The idea that you can just churn out weaponised RC toys and go to war, is pure science fiction.
Most of the real “automated vehicles” are in fact hybrid versions of tanks, boats, subs, choppers and planes… because the equipment is tried and tested, the resources and skillsbase is there to build and maintain and operate them.
You can’t accelerate the training of engineers, pilots and technicians to have some kind of sweeping transformation. That is reminiscent of the delusions of sweeping away ICE engines and replacing them with EVs… the people who espouse and advocate this, have little or no understanding of the engineering and physics involved and the costs and operating constraints of all the new infrastructure needed… again, it’s science fiction.
Conventional industrial warfare, and petrol engines, have plenty of life left in them. It will be evolution, not revolution, regardless of the politicians and campaigners shrill ullulations about various crises and imaginary solutions.