Unemployment is rising and job openings have crashed. It looks recessionary. Let’s investigate with a series of pictures.
Job openings have plunged from a peak of 12.2 million in March of 2022 to 8.1 million in April of 2024. Openings data is current through April.
Unemployment is up from 5.7 million in December of 2022 to 6.5 million in April of 2024. The May unemployment level is 6.6 million
The levels don’t match the Great Recession, but the pattern is strikingly similar.
I picked up this idea from Bespoke.
“Fed Chair Powell likes to cite the ratio of job openings per unemployed worker as an indicator of tight labor markets, but it’s now back to 2019 pre-COVID levels at ~1.2. This was at 2 to 1 when the Fed began tightening a couple years ago.”
Here is the Bespoke version of the data calculated to two decimal places.
Job Openings Per Unemployed Person
Does a ratio tell the better story or actual numbers? I think actual numbers as in the lead chart, but kudos to Bespoke for the idea.
Question of the Day?
Does anyone believe the current number of openings?
I think openings are hugely overstated. There is no cost to having an opening now. There was decades ago when it cost to list a hob with search firms.
Openings now are frequently along the lines “If the perfect candidate shows up, I will hire, otherwise not.”
Also, openings put up a front to make employees feel better. If there are no openings employees start to worry if cuts are around the corner.
Job Openings, Hires, Separations, Quits
Hires, separations, and quits are all below the pre-pandemic numbers.
Quits are down from 4.3 million in April of 2022 to 3.3 million in April of 2024. Pre-pandemic quits were 3.4 million.
This is a sign of nervous employees unwilling to switch jobs and/or companies unwilling to pay increasing salaries to entice people to look.
This data only dates to December of 2000, but the only other three times we have seen declines like these, the economy was in or headed to recession.
Initial Unemployment Claims Jump the Most Since August 2023
Continued claims also show rising economic weakness. Some say it’s just California. Let’s investigate.
A California Anomaly?
The report shows the unadjusted level for California rose from 40,799 to 51,110. That’s an increase of 10,311.
So is this just California? Did it even happen in California?
For details, please see Initial Unemployment Claims Jump the Most Since August 2023
Hint: It did happen in California and it will spread.
Twenty Percent of California Lives in Poverty, What’s Going On?
For discussion, please see Twenty Percent of California Lives in Poverty, What’s Going On?
California leads the nation in the percentage of people living in poverty. Blame the Progressive oligarchs like Governor Newsom.
What About Jobs?
Please see Another Bizarro Jobs Report – Payrolls Rise 272,000 Employment Drop 408,000
Nonfarm Payrolls vs Employment Gains Since May 2023
- Nonfarm Payrolls: 2,756,000
- Employment Level: +376,000
- Full-Time Employment: -1,163,000
In the last year, jobs are up 2.8 million while full-time employment is down 1.2 million
Similarly, there is a huge discrepancy between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) vs Gross Domestic Income (GDI)
Real GDP vs Real GDI
GDP and GDI are two measures of the same thing. Income received should match product produced.
However, income is historically low vs GDP.
GDI lends credence to the idea that the household survey (employment) is correct, not the CES establishment survey (nonfarm payrolls) with its assumed birth-death adjustments.
Recession When?
Weakening of data is now across the board except for a jobs report that many intelligent minds don’t believe.
Coupled with weakening trends in hard data, I repeat my unpopular opinion: A Second-Quarter Recession This Year Looks Increasingly Likely
Second quarter means a recession has started and few see it. If not second then third. We will see.
Danielle DiMartio Booth thinks a recession started last October. So, I am not the first to think so this time. For discussion, please see Is the US in Recession Now? Two Prominent Competing Views
The two views are Danielle DiMartio Booth and Jim Bianco.
Mish is there anything to the 2 or 3 articles floating around that says basically that alot of the job opening postings are not even legit?
Oh Look … another job opening!!!
25 Yr Old Professional Rugby Player Dead
Garden-Bachop, a father of two, died of a medical event in Christchurch yesterday. He was 25.
https://www.odt.co.nz/sport/rugby/highlanders/highlander-connor-garden-bachop-dies-25
Dropping like flies around the world.
Companies will promote fake job openings and some of the major corporations will even interview people with no intent to fill the opening.
They use fake job openings as a way to conduct labor market research, and also to give the perception that the company is growing.
That is why you have to not take it serious and discount the job opening data.
One thing for sure, the administrative state or federal bureaucracy likely will “massage” the economic data long enough so any real bad data is held off until after the November’s election.
Public companies want to show they are growing in order to at least prop up their stock price.
Thanks for the interesting and informative report. I hope you get some R&R for all you deal with running the site. Hopefully everyone including myself can remember to exercise civility and humility.
Let me interrupt the Quest for More… with a brief yet insightful article:
“Wetiko is a cannibalizing force driven by insatiable greed, appetite without satisfaction, consumption as an end in itself, and war for its own sake, against other tribes, species, and nature, and even against the individual’s own humanity.” — Paul Levy, author of Wetiko: Healing the Mind-Virus That Plagues Our World
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/meet-the-mind-virus-wetiko
What we need is for more people to get up to date on the covid boosters… where are we with this? shot 7.. or is it 10? I’ve lost track….
If more people get more shots we get more deaths, more injuries… more cancer .. in working age people…
This would result in another surge of job openings… leaving analysts puzzled as to why the job market looks so awesome — when other data indicates the economy is cratering.
Maybe it’s a new normal where more jobs are created when the economy is sinking towards collapse? (sarc)
It was strange how I didn’t get really sick (idk if it was covid or not, didn’t get tested) until after I got the vaccine, but maybe just a coincidence.
The thing is… it normally takes many years to create and test a new vaccine… the Covid vaccine was ready in well under a year…
I recall reading about Operation Warp Speed and thinking… WTF???
Then I did some research and quickly found this https://www.wired.com/2003/05/feds-race-to-make-sars-vaccine/
I could not find anything explaining how they overcame all those massive problems — despite huge $$$ in research funding.
Including this:
“Scientists are especially cautious because of their experience with vaccines aimed at animal relatives of the SARS virus. SARS is a coronavirus, the same virus family that causes serious diseases in pigs and other animals. While shots work well against some of these, they occasionally go disastrously bad. A vaccine for the feline coronavirus actually results in worse disease, not less, when cats catch the virus.”
Well He/They, can cite anything that they want to, but it doesn’t change the facts on the ground. One could say Facts like:
– The ratio of job openings per unemployed worker
– The drop in the housing market
– The drop in EV sales
– The drop in the CRE market
– Bank closings
– The potential out of control inflation
– The potential out of control Government spending
– The potential MSM bias
– The potential DOJ bias
– The potential rise in Emotional Issues
– The potential rise in Racial Issues
– The rise in homelessness
– The rise in food hunger
– The Potential List Goes On, and On, and On…
I must agree with Papa, and make some money off of if you can, or at least try your best not to lose any…
WTI back to $80 area after dropping to the $73 area earlier this month. Oil stocks dropped when WTI dropped, but have not yet recovered. So I was deploying some of my cash to pick up bargains the last two trading days. In case folks here want to pick up some bargains, here is what I was buying:
Diamondback, Chord, Canadian Natural, Tourmaline, Meg, Suncor, Whitecap, Veren, Baytex, Headwater, Cardinal, Tamarack, Freehold.
Snoring Kitty is that you?
Yes.
And; you’re welcome.
If the job listings chart is extrapolated using the 2009 lows and pre-covid levels to today (taking out the whipsaw during and immediately after covid); then the job openings today are below the trend line. This is significant because job openings have also been below trend for more than a year.
I know it won’t go anywhere with the criminals in Washington, but Senator Mike Lee has introduced a bill to abolish the FED. Wouldn’t that be nice….but we can only dream
If you trust grimy, two-faced, white-collar criminal mormons from Utah to do anything right you don’t know Utah or mormons. You also must not know much of the important US history (instead of the fairy tale version of US history). I’ll give you one clue as an example……What is the name of the headquarters building of the US Federal Reserve in Washington D.C.?
It’s the Marriner S. Eccles. Look up who that guy was and who his polygamist father was. The mormon church is a front organization for an extra convoluded version British-Israelite Freemasonry. Marriner S. Eccles was a main figure in the solidification of the Federal Reserve system and it’s power over the United States. The guy is a traitor to the US.
There is plenty of dirt on the mormons that is somewhat hidden away by the press but their involvement in the laundering of weapons and drug trafficking money for the CIA is traceable for those who care to know.
So keep believing those grifters who tell you what you want to hear. Actions speak louder than words and they are all talk. Some people loved to get stroked though so have at it.
It would also be nice to see him as attorney general and a Supreme Court Justice when the next position opens up.
There are always jobs for qualified people. Unfortunately if you aren’t qualified enough there may not be an opening for you and you end up having to compete with people who will take less money to do the same work. This is why deflation is never more than a few.months away and why the Fed can’t inflate its way out of problems of the people.
We are back to the baseline economy we had from 2012 to 2019 of meager growth but it is in the backdrop of higher inflation. We need a housing crash to truly get back to normal but it isn’t likely bc there is too much money in the system waiting to catch falling asset prices.
The economy is quite bifurcated b/w the haves and have not moreso than ever. No change in political leadership will fix this or any of the other untractable problems rhe US finds itself in. This is the longest period in US history where the central bank or treasury has not had some panic that forces them to change the system. How much longer this can go on Iis anyone’s guess but my take is there will be instability until 2033.
– No change in political leadership will fix this.
> I feel the exact opposite, and the Only Thing that will fix this is our Leadership IMO.
We have a very short list:
– Close ALL Borders immediately to Only Legal Entry through the legal channels that include checks and balances.
– Stop the DEI nonsense immediately.
– Stop the Government Spending immediately and claw back everything you possibly can immediately.
– Raise interest rates immediately.
– Stop the Taxpayers Steal, and have the people that took out the school loans Pay Them Back!
– Stop with the EV nonsense immediately.
– Stop with the Windmill nonsense immediately.
– Stop with the Solar Panels immediately.
– Stop giving ALL money to Ukraine, and demand a Peace Agreement immediately.
– Stop the Frivolous Political law suits.
That’s just for starters, but it would put us on the proper trajectory, as compared to the “Self Destructive”Path we’re on right now… of course I have 100 more items on my list once we get back on the right trajectory.
– Drill Baby Drill!
– Sell NG to Everyone that wants it!
– Spending cuts to ALL Government Departments by 30%-40% immediately.
Just a few quick moves to make immediately following the first set, and again much, much more to come in Foreign Affairs for example, and Domestic Policies etc…
There is no political will to extend the pain. There are too many people in power who would be impacted by the above.
In my opinion wages decoupled for qualifications a long time ago. The large corporations have too much power and are willing to make decisions that hurt the bottom line in order to continue to suppress wages.
What do you call a recession in the middle of a depression?
A dead cat bounce.
October 1’st, 2024
When you are a hammer everything looks very much like a nail.
We’re in a recession now. I don’t believe the number of job openings but I believe the major reason they are out there now is because companies were forced to hire employees just to have an extra body even though they weren’t good candidates for the job. Some of these employees have horrible work ethics. Employers are looking for an “upgrade” to the current employee and it doesn’t have to be the perfect candidate to come along. My husband is retiring next month from an office job that doesn’t require a college degree but must know basic math (i.e. .125, .375). He advised them over 8 months ago and the company still can’t find an employee to replace him. ALL the employees work in the office except my husband. He gets to work from home and set his own hours. They know he gets the job done and doesn’t need a babysitter.
In the last few days I pointed out at Trump’s holes in the fence, where Biden and his troops can sneak in, during CNN debate, stun and destroy him. FOX : Biden and his prisoner, a convicted felon. Complacent taste good, but may not keep u alive. U have to play how u can get killed and where, before it happens.
Did you train yourself to be the stupidest commenter here, or did it come naturally? I have to ignore you in every thread, so consider it done.
Michael Engel is also an equal moron at the WolfStreet website.
Calling Trump a convicted felon doesn’t bode well for Biden now that his sone Hunter is a convicted Felon.
It seems to me that COVID-24 or -25 are JUST ABOUT TO BE RELEASED in the minds of readers, and it will be the same: 1) Lock downs. 2) WORK FROM HOME. 3) Forced VACCINES. 4) less than .01% death rates. 5) SHOUTED on nightly news: “MILLIONS DYING!”
I was in Hosp in June (late) 2020 for surgery. I asked my night nurse, when I arrived, “HOW MANY COVID PATIENTS.” She swung the door closed, put her index finger to her MASKED mouth and proclaimed; “ZERO, do not believe what you read in the Paper or see on TV!”
Nothing more was said. Right then, within months of the “PANDEMIC” – – I knew it was a sham.
Around Dallas in April 2020, hospital staff were released from shifts because the expected patient load wasn’t there.
Happened everywhere.
Intensive care units were overloaded and staff over worked because too many COVID patients.
The rest of the hospital was empty as all elective procedures were put on hold, there were fewer accidents as people were not doing much, and everyone else was afraid to go to emergency.
The blood supply is tainted.
That’s why I don’t want to have surgery. I don’t want to take a chance on getting blood from a person who is vaxed. I knew I would never be vaxed when I heard 50% of the medical profession wouldn’t take the vax. I’m amazed at all the sheeple that still believe in this hoax. Unfortunately the medical damage isn’t done yet. For anyone that is SERIOUS about wanting to obtain information I suggest to visit Link: naturalnews.com. there are MANY medical professionals from other countries that were using the SAME vaccines as the US that have spoken out. You can find lots of articles on covid vaccines.
Watch out for mike adams, Laura. Probably controlled opposition. Check out Dr. Scott Johnson of contendingfortruth.com I’m just about positive that he’s legit.
The unemployment might rise, but the economy can thrive. Robots will pesticide agriculture fields. Robots that electrocute weeds. Robots will pick up lettuce and melons. Robots with sensors will identify infected areas with diseases that need spraying. Drones with leakage detectors will fly above. In the next decade or two farmers with digital eyes will play defense. Every morning farmers will turn on their computers or phones to inspect their crop, in real time, and decide what to do next. Robots and drones will boost productivity and reduce the need for immigrants jobs. Real food, healthier food, that cost less, instead of junk & processed food, will reduce cases of strokes, heart attacks, cancer… and the cost of healthcare.
I would prefer our Country was working on that, than trying to control the weather, block out the Sun, and crap nonsense like that. Kick the Windmills and Solar Panels to the curb, and do more of what your advocating for our health and well being!!!
My base case is that this year will be analogous to 2008, though what causes problem now versus the Mortgage issue then is unclear
Things will be falling apart toward the end of the year as they were then probably
We shall see
If rates stay higher. Could see more cracks in banks, private equity, CRE, credit cards, etc.. later this year. Residential real estate not sure. It’s the battle of unafforability for new home buyers vs still low inventory, & lack of distress with existing homeowners.
I think it will be credit card debt. I think people quietly relying on their credit cards, to keep things going.
Is there any methodology to remove fake job listings? They can be a huge % of the total. I think Amazon was exposed for 1/3. Also, crony hiring at colleges and utilities can be rampant, hence fake
I think Mish made a truly excellent point about how it has become cheap and easy to post help wanted advertising, leading to his conclusion that a whole lot of those postings aren’t real, or are barely real. I recently did an informal survey about it locally, and one result was that many job openings really are not openings at all.
I would also note that some share of job applications aren’t serious either, but those seem to be quite a bit fewer than “fake” openings. Maybe I will do another, more direct local survey to get a better handle on it. I think the job market where I live is softer than it was only six months ago, but I cannot claim to know how soft.
One thing is clear to me: The economy has weakened this year. Now, its a big country and there is a lot of variation, as there always has been. The national unemployment rate has been rising since March. It has risen by 0.2%, which is a substantial increase, and I will not be surprised to see another 0.2% rise in June.
As for “crony hiring,” I dismiss that one on the grounds that it has always been the case. And it is hard to define, because it has also always been true that most jobs are not filled through advertising of openings but by word of mouth.
Even in the times when jobs were advertised, the rule of thumb was that only 10% of jobs were filled through advertising. This was certainly the case for me. I had six professional jobs in two careers before I retired, and I never got one through an ad. I did fill three lower level job openings at two firms through advertising, but never got one that way.
Something else seems clear, and that is that the ratio of job openings to unemployment has always been squishy, but that it has become even squishier now that it is close to free to advertise openings. As an econometric indicator, I don’t think the ratio is reliable at all. This is not in any way a criticism of Mish’s post in the least, but only to say that there are better indicators of economic strength or weakness than that one.
Finally, I have repeatedly noted the relationship between the trend in second quarter unemployment (which I think is still a very reliable number, honestly calculated and reported, its conceptual issues notwithstanding) has had a strong track record ever since WW2 in forecasting the winner of the popular vote in a November presidential election.
This years election is complicated by Trump’s criminal trial and conviction, and will be further complicated if the New York judge sentences him to a prison term. If that happens it will be horrendous for this country, but I tend to doubt that it will save Biden or if as Mish has predicted his replacement on the ticket if his dementia forces him to drop out.
To me, Trump’s precarious legal standing makes his VP choice a critical issue, and maybe the most critical in Americas modern history. He needs to choose someone truly capable of being resident. Not a Sarah Palin or Dan Quayle or Kamala Harris, but someone visibly capable of doing the job. To me, that would be North Dakotas Doug Burgum, the only R in those shit show primary debates who was remotely able to do the job. If he winds up leading the R ticket, I think he will be elected.
July 2024 will be a historic month in American history. Someone(s) need to take a deep breath and put country first. We shall see.
15 years since we have had a REAL old fashioned biz cycle downturn. Where stocks crash and don’t break even again for at least 5+ yrs. Where unemployment goes up and stays up. Where we have a cycle in BK’s, foreclosures, junk bond defaults. 15 yrs since it last happened! Longest in USA history?
Anyone over 50 yrs old has a big dose of “recency bias”. Including myself. Having gone though a decent recession in early 90’s, big crash ’01 dot com, and only 5 yrs after dot com recession ended…a whopper crash in 2008. So that trauma is built in the mind of those of us over 50. Those “rug pull” big crashes and recessions are baggage that can’t be forgotten & create cynicism.
This has been a really long run of bad recession calls since 2009. Can’t count how many pundits were calling for recessions & crashes way back in 2012, 2014, and on and on and on. But this sucker just keeps going and going and going like the energizer bunny!
Interesting point. It’s not just old farts like me though. Imagine being 20-25 years old in 2006 and seeing things go all to hell – that’s pretty formative if it captures your early work experience. It sets your baseline. Or worse, being 20-25 years old in 2000 and seeing back-to-back crashes within the first 10 years of work life.
I think someone has to be over 45 now to have experienced much loss in 2008? You had to have money at risk in say 2006 to lose it in 2008. 25 year olds usually do not have a lot of capital at risk in the stock market, and aren’t homeowners yet. And a 25 year old in 2006 is 43 now.
I was 29 during the start of the dot com crash in March 2000 and DID have some capital at risk and worked in tech (lost job). So that one is ETCHED in my memory. As is the GFC (was 37 when that melt down began). The early 1990 recession I had no money to lose as I was just getting out of college in 1992. So that one I remember much less. By i do remember how HARD it was to find a white collar job even as late as ’94. Lots of friends with college degress were waiting tables in 92, 93, 94. Eased up in ’95 a lot though.
These are my years as well.
The job market, and the economy in general, was 100x better in 94 than it is now. As a matter of fact, I don’t think the economy and jobs market was ever better than it was from 93-97.
Of course ratio is better – both the economy and labor force have grown and continue to do so. Nominal values are not that useful. Frankly, the job opening data is of dubious use as well as many of those listings are not intended to be filled (but who knows the amount)
A serious, prolonged recession is needed to lower home prices.
Hmmm, recession just in time for the COLA calculations.
Actually, given Misha’s tendency to be an early caller, it’ll probably not be detected until the following quarter (Oct-Dec).
Still expecting low COLA in any case.
For 6 months in late 2023 and early 2024 the CPI-W didn’t budge at all (stayed around 302).
We already know the denominator for the next SS COLA calculation: 301.236.
Based on the fact the CPI-W is at 308.163 now, it’s not looking good. Next COLA is likely to be in the 2.5%-3% range.
The NBER’s methodology guarantees the start of the “official” recession will be backdated.
It will be too late to announce a recession before the November election.
And that is intentional because the massaged or manipulated economic data will be adjusted after the November election.
I thought AI does all the work now. And with MMT everyone else gets a free living wage … According to NVDA’s market cap and the cheerleaders of our dystopian future. Or maybe its just a mania same as it ever was and economic cycles still actually exist. The second alternative requires patience and self discipline against FOMO. And the ability to step away from the fictions talking book on mass media. Common sense, in short supply.