As I watch the evolution of consumer spending, housing starts, new home sales, and GDPNow trends, it appears the economy has peaked. Warning: I tend to be early. 
The GDPNow forecast has been weakening since a peak of 4.2 percent on May 8, 2024.
The best number to follow is not the overall forecast but rather Real Final Sales (RFS). The rest is inventory adjustment that nets to zero over time.
A steep plunge occurred in the base forecast from 3.5 to 2.7 then to 1.8 on May 1 and June 3. Importantly, RFS fell from 2.9 to 2.1 to 1.8 on the same dates.
Balance of Trade
I made that call on May 30.
On June 1, I commented Soaring US Trade Deficit Smacks the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast
On June 3, the GDPNow forecast took another dive.
The following table that shows both moves.
GDPnow Contributions
Advance Economic Indicators, specifically import-export data took the Net Exports contribution to GDP from -0.06 to -0.60 on May 31.
Also on May 31, Personal Income and Outlays took the contribution for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) from 2.28 to 1.75.
It’s not always easy to assign the numbers to specific buckets, but the plunge in net exports is clear.
ISM Manufacturing New Orders and Backlogs in Steep Contraction
On June 3, I commented ISM Manufacturing New Orders and Backlogs in Steep Contraction
The Manufacturing ISM was in contraction for 16 months went positive for a month and is contracting again for two months with order backlogs falling for 20 months.
June 3 Impact to GDPNow
On June 3, the ISM and construction spending reports clobbered PCE with lesser negative impacts on Residential Investments, Equipment, and Net Exports.
Assigning percentages here is more difficult, and the Atlanta Fed might not be able to do so either. This is because the variables are entered at the same time and one can influence another.
However, the decline in Residential Investment from -0.08 to -0.18 is easy to attribute to the construction spending report. The big declines from 1.75 to 1.19 on PCE and 0.42 to 0.25 on equipment are harder to attribute precisely.
It’s important to note that what matters is not the reports but what GDPNow expected vs the reports. Bad data does not necessarily cause a decline in GDPnow, nor good data a rise.
Below Stall Speed
With Real Final Sales at 1.3 percent (lead chart) the economy is at stall speed. But will we stay there?
Real (inflation-adjusted) Income and spending was negative in April. Real income was negative two of the last 3 months.
For discussion of the above chart, please see The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure, PCE, Shows No Further Progress
Real (inflation-adjusted) Income and spending was negative in April. Real income was negative two of the last 3 months.
Personal Income Four Ways
Real Disposable Personal Income (after taxes) has stalled.
For discussion, please see Why Consumers Are Angry About the Economy in Five Pictures
Anger Synopsis
Consumers are angry, and it’s reflected in the polls. I have been discussing the reasons for angry consumers all year.
But Biden and most economists still don’t get it. They think the economy is doing well. Tell that to renters looking to buy a home, stuck with rent going up month after month.
More Soft Economic Data, Q1 GDP Revised Lower, Q4 GDI Significantly Lower
On May 30, I commented More Soft Economic Data, Q1 GDP Revised Lower, Q4 GDI Significantly Lower
The economic slowdown continues led by income and consumer spending.
The same story is repeating in April.
Revisions a Hallmark of Economic Turns
May 24: Another Massive Revision, This Time Durable Goods, What’s Going On
May 23: New Home Sales Sink 4.7 Percent on Top of Huge Negative Revisions
May 22: Discretionary Spending Tumbles at Target, Shares Drop 10 Percent
May 22: Existing-Home Sales Decline 1.9 Percent, Sales Mostly Stagnant for 17 Months
April 15: Elon Musk Fires 10 Percent of Tesla Workforce, Prepares for “Next Phase of Growth”
Misfiring on All Cylinders
For the past two years whenever one segment of the economy misfired, another picked up. Some labeled this a rolling recession.
Every time consumers appeared to throw in the towel, there was another surge in spending.
Now it appears the economy is misfiring on consumer discretionary spending, new home sales, existing-home sales, durable goods, EVs simultaneously, and income simultaneously.
Recession Q&A
Q: Mish aren’t you nearly always early on recession calls?
A: Guilty as charged.
Q: Did you call a recession that did not happen at all?
A: Guilty as charged.
Is the US in Recession Now? Two Prominent Competing Views
On May 28, I discussed the question Is the US in Recession Now? Two Prominent Competing Views
Danielle DiMartino Booth has been beating the drums for weeks that the US is in recession and has been since October. No so fast says Jim Bianco.
I also explain how I went wrong on my recession forecasts and why I believe Booth is early in her position that a recession started in October 2023.
Finally, I discuss when I think recession is likely.
In the above post I discuss the McKelvey indicator championed by DiMartino Booth. It has a pretty good but not perfect track record in forecasting recessions.
My follow-up post was on GDPplus, another recession indicator, discussed below. First, please note the big reason the economy avoided a recession in late 2022 and 2023 was amazingly enough a tax cut!
Tax Cuts Explain Surge in Consumer Spending in 2023
On January 29, 2024, I commented Tax Cuts, Not Bidenomics Explains Surge in Consumer Spending in 2023
Also, on January 1, 2023, 38 states had noteworthy tax changes. 37 of the changes put extra money in people’s pockets. The combination murdered the then-pending recession.
For details of the tax cut please click on the previous link.
The GDPplus Indicator
GDPplus is a Philadelphia Fed method that blends, not averages GDP and GDI. The Philadelphia Fed revised the indicator significantly lower on Thursday.
It’s also a very good predictor of recessions.
For discussion, please see Philadelphia Fed GDPplus Revised Significantly Lower, But No Recession Yet
By “yet” I was referring to the idea that a recession started in 2024 Q1.
Data is now weakening so fast, on so many fronts, that I expect a recession this year. Unlike 2023, there will be no tax cut or minimum wage hikes in 37 states to boost consumer spending now.
Judging from the recent slide, and assuming it continues, the economy may have peaked in April with a recession starting in May.
Label it recession by slow-acting poison of Bidenomics with a temporary 2023 reprieve due to tax cuts.
Meanwhile, back in the real world we are already in a recession.
It may not be apparent to the welfare recipients in Washington DC or to the massively indebted retirees that Mish hangs out with (debt they will never repay).
But people who work for a living know we are already in a recession
Fascinating that the bullish phrase “soft landing” continues to be missing in the mainstream media noting it has already begun; right in time for the election.😄
Gas prices down another 25% in my area. This after an initial 25% drop from the peak. Also notice that purchases are now limited to 20 gallons of gasoline and no more at all gas stations in my area.
Did you see stickers on the pumps labeled with, “Joe Biden did that!”
Where in the U.S. do you live? If gas was $5 at the peak to start, then dropped to $3.75, then dropped AGAIN to $2.85, that would have made the national news. So I’m guessing your abacus is missing a few beads.
just drove by the freeway sited stations 2.99 for the tourists
Label it recession by slow-acting poison of Bidenomics with a temporary 2023 reprieve due to tax cuts.
—
The Fed is more to blame than Biden. They did not raise rates early enough and lowered them too much during Covid. They are always late often to hike and too early to cut rates. Had they raised rates in 2022, inflation never would have had a chance to rage. This error by the Fed may cost Biden his job and force them to deal with the previous President on whose watch we got 0% rates. I’m sure that will go well.
“Good luck with your layoffs, I hope your firings go well.”
— Peter from Office Space
In my world, my back of the envelope estimate is that the depressed housing market will take 3/4 to 1% out of GDP in 2024. GDP impact of one small industry alone….. Does not account for anything in the DIY/remodel business….
While the inflationary depression, looming shortages, and social collapse seems to be locked in, a recession that only affects bloater ‘equities’ might be staved off a bit longer by printing more inflation.
Who is paying these prices for everything ? I’m in the top 1.5% of incomes and have given up. If any of our services asks for a raise, they get fired. It looks like there are many people willing to work for less $/hr now.
Meanwhile the market continues to melt up led by tech.
This is because some tech companies are minting money again after a rough couple of years. The AI boom is also real and will replace many jobs in the coming years starting with basic functions like banking, finance and accounting. I expect profits to go up while operating cost goes down for many companies b/c they can get rid of expensive humans. By 2026, this will cause rising unemployment but higher stock prices and profitability. It already doesn’t feel like your usual recession. Stock prices should have already dropped by 20% now.
So will the people who lose their jobs be able to find one of the many millions of jobs AI will create? Can anyone just plug and play themselves into an AI related job like with front or back end development — self taught with personal projects on Resume to find high paying Job?
AI is going to eliminate massively more jobs than it creates. In another several years, there will be the need for a Universal Basic Income to sustain living costs for many Americans.
Creativity is the differentiator. If your job involved solving the same problems the same ways, it’s vulnerable. If your job is to make things that never existed before, it’s probably safe.
I have found chatGPT incredibly helpful for learning new skills. It’s like having a very knowledgeable person you can tap on the shoulder and ask stuff, as opposed to googling where you have to wade through ads and other trash.
I am using the free version, but if they start charging, I’ll pay it… and I am a cheap bastard when it comes to that stuff. It’s very valuable if you have the ability to put it to use.
Of course.
The poorer America gets, the more destitute people get, hence the less they can afford to demand.
Leaving more room for The Fed to artificially increase the purchasing power of; hence demand from; its favored dependent leeching class members without total demand increasing the price of the two things The Fed has carefully selected to include in its economically nonsensical “goods basket.” The way this pumping up of leeching class purchasing power is done, is always to artificially pump up nonsensical, hyped up drivel packaged up as “stocks” and other arbitrarily decreed “assets.”
You know EVERYTHING gets manipulated by the Govt – CPI/inflation, Covid cases and jab deaths/adverse reactions, masks/6-ft mandates, CO2/gloBull warming temps & effects, Ukrainian’s killed, you name it. You know GDP is also rigged. Therefore, why don’t you reference the data from ShadowStats, which shows that GDP has not gotten above 0% since the coronadoom BS – https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts.
Is that why you are always too afraid to invest and haven’t made huge gains in the markets over the last 3 years?
Kind of sad actually. You’re missing out.
Corporate earnings keep going up. And wise investors are profiting big time from those great earnings. And that’s not government data.
Corporate earnings are NOT GOING UP. They are beating massively lowered guidance. Ffs everyone falls for that bullshit and wall street ponziboys love it
Lol! Believe what you want. The corporate earnings of the companies that I have invested in are doing great. I’ve made a fortune over the last few years, including this year. While you hide in your basement, drinking your cult koolaid, too scared to invest.
Go ahead and keep whining and bitching while I keep growing my wealth.
🤣🤣 stock price is NOT indicative of “doing great”. Many stock prices are massively overpriced and overvalued on a fundamental and historical basis. When the implosion happens, make sure and keep buying the dip. And keep doubling down
There are reports of summer concerts being cancelled or significantly scaled back due to lack of ticket sales.
“At a time when many consumers are struggling to pay for basic necessities, he said, “people are seeing some of the prices they’re asking and just saying, ‘Hard pass.’”
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/concert-ticket-sales-why-are-artists-canceling-shows-tours-prices-rcna154558
The concerts are how they make money these days. It’s no longer the albums because the album buzz dies swiftly. Back in the day an album could generate steady revenue for a year or more with spikes if more songs broke into the starting lineup on air.
J-Lo just learned the hard way that she’s over.
A “peaking” or “slowing” economy is certainly not what economists mean by an economy “in recession.” But then some people seem desperate to hear bad economic news. So talking about a “recession” that doesn’t exist at least serves a social purpose.
You go right on spending and going into debt. gives others the chance to get out.
Everybody gets what they want in the market.
Time for Janet to dust off her witch hat and conjure up som more magical money to keep things humming until election day.
Seems like the cumulative weight of inflation and high interest rates is finally taking it’s toll.
The fact is the PMI is a sentiment indicator not an economic one. Below 50 has always been a market buy signal. On top of that the skyrocketing SP500 is due to high tech issues making up 25%-30% of today’s index and institutional investor flocking to high tech as a safe-haven expecting recession. Nothing further from the hard economic data, the reports of better than expected eps and raised guidance from scores of industrial/mfg issues.
Nothing further on Hard data.
Can you read?
You are reading PMI as economic, It is not. Durable goods higher, Construction Spend revised higher prior months and etc. Got to look only at the hard data. Sentiment weak across the board but not an economic driver.
The recession will be unstoppable… cuz another round of massive stimulus will trigger hyperinflation…
Now we get to see what would have happened in 2008… if the central banks had not acted
So much keyed to the Presidential election cycle and what political regime is attempting to pull the levers. Unfortunately, the economy IMO-due to debt load and consequent inflation-currently is almost uncontrollable with real inflation destroying any gains in productivity. The question, therefore, is how to adjust data on the fly to fit preconceived goals in the short to medium term.
Well, you see each month the substantial revisions to the released economic data…revised to the downside in almost all instances in the past year.
Ah, more RVs and SUV hordes camping out on 101 turnouts and rest stops to forgo paying rent in order to eat while enjoying the ocean views and a smoke from a 10 dollar pack of 20 Camels . Ah, kings and queens of the road.
Few things are more hilarious than a 5 million dollar oceanfront McMansion with a crappy old rv running a noisy generator in front of it. It’s perfect salve for the burn of not being able to afford a 5 million dollar ocean front McMansion.
Lay off the big city Biden voters. Suburbs will be fine.
three years of opaque omnibus Fed budgets have flooded Blue urban precincts with grants, raises, no-show jobs, promotions & countless other buckets of free money.
surely we’ve noticed that ALL of the cities that were @ the financial abyss just four years ago are somehow still operating & suspiciously quiet/solvent/flush… all while their tax receipts have eroded as businesses & families escaped in unprecedented numbers.
Hmmmmmm. If only we had media/journalism that might investigate such remarkable phenomena…
Ok looky looky! Final Services PMI a la CCP. Last, 54.8, expected, 54.8, actual 54.8. No absurdly large hit or miss. Steady state, baby.
Everything is peachy so Fed won’t need to go full Dovy.
Canada cut 1/4% Trudope land is weakening. BOC backing off from inflation fight.
ECB also likely to cut.
Still appears Fed got the memo that USD as primary reserve currency will not get sacrificed on altar of woke.
Equities currently taking some seltzer for that growling stomach which shows up once again.
And whoopsies, ISM Services comes charging back 53.8 v. 49.4 last. Say goodbye to Hollywood, say goodbye to rate cuts in the manic data / headline markets. Good for market makers in options.
Was just reading BOC statement. CPI at 2.7% and their core preferred measure moving down was justification for reducing rate. Mission accomplished in North country.
Am still thinking Fed will hold on somewhat longer then rest of west CB’s.
just to show USd still has some clout.
But yes all is good. Regular miracle we have just witnessed.
In the meantime people are not going to run right out and spend, they remain very broke. Especially that lower 50%.
Revisions incoming next round, as usual.
The algos are not broke! Soon, only NVDA will be bid, for the magical future of AI with no one employed. But the indices will keep rising. Mike Hartnett said sell on the first rate cut. Because by the time they actually do cut …
There are a lot of things I like about Canada. I really like a lot of their oil and gas companies as they trade at big discounts to most US companies. I own a lot of them, and trade them regularly.
We generally lag the economy by 3 -5 months. We see a significant slow down in business based on order book for this summer – Q3.
Janet said we had transcended the business cycle. She said other things but I fell asleep trying to listen to her unyielding monotony.
There is still hope : Canada’s TransMountain is operative. Nerd #1 and #2 might be reconnected. Biden’s/Modi’s silk road between India, Haifa and Europe might expand. If Israel and the Palestinians sign a non-aggression pact, the US, the Saudis, the Europeans and Qatar will re-build Jasa. A pipeline might stretch between the Saudis, Aqaba and Jasa, to bypass the Hooties and bring oil to Europe. N. Korea and Iran might use their “useless” intellectual properties to build productive/peaceful industries. U never know what’s coming next.
Deeply disturbing numbers
Have you considered what affect the $100’s of billions being invested in AI will have on GDP? It seems significant.
Better logistics, fewer jobs, at this point in the business cycle, warehouses of chips and machines sitting unused because what good is logistics if there is no one to by product, i.e., a recession.
Money pissed down the drain
“Have you considered what affect the $100’s of billions being invested in AI will have on GDP? It seems significant.”
It’s certainly significant for GDP. Just as $100’s of billions being invested in Petrocks would have been.
For the economy, though; it’s just another day, another destruction of value once built up by more competent previous generations.
I see you’ve been left behind. The productivity increases from this tech are already being felt, and it’s just started.
From the physical petrocks? Or the Instagram ones?
Which one have I been left behind by?
“But Biden and most economists still don’t get it. They think the economy is doing well.”
Let’s just try a bit harder to call it as it is. I will edit this line to reflect reality:
But Biden and most economists still ACT AS IF THEY don’t get it. They ACT AS IF THEY think the economy is doing well.
—————————————————————————
I am making the obvious point that Politicians are now acting as if we cannot spot a child with his hand in the cookie jar. Biden and his Handlers are SURELY not this INANE, so it is calculated and TIRESOME for those of us out here who know how to spot a Liar.
[1M] SPY, If June rises to a new all time high and closes below May high it’s a monthly trigger. And And if July(C) < Mar(C)==> it might start the first correction. Going straight down might lead to recession. A few stopping actions might not. The stock market is a casino. It can humble the best traders.
If SPY cont to rise And And the trigger will come in the third quarter, in Aug/ Sept, after
completing DM #9, the correction might start in the 3rd Qt. A recession might start in 2025 and cont until 2026, or beyond.
“The stock market is a casino.”
A very commonly used phrase. And perhaps there is “some” truth to it. However the S&P 500 has returned an average gain of 10.6% per year for the last hundred years. Whereas a typical casino slot machine returns a loss of 3% of all bets over its lifetime.
I prefer to invest in companies that return 10-20% to me annually than to go to a casino.
Another great week for trading so far. Buy the dips, sell the rips.
I cant wait until you get rinsed
And that’s one of your many problems. Instead of spending your time, working hard, saving, investing and growing your wealth, you waste your time hoping and wishing that others will fall to your level.
And that’s not going to happen. I profit from whatever the situation is. Recessions and market corrections are just another opportunity for me. Whether it’s the stock market, real estate market or some other investment.
Whereas, folks like you live your life afraid of your own shadow, never investing, and always jealous of those who are successful.
I am not worried about a recession, I am worried about what comes after, specifically Fed cuts that will lower rates and drive borrowing and inflation higher for an already elevated point.
The pent up demand for housing from all those “voting renters” will explode. Once they start buying houses, they’ll start buying everything else: TVs, furniture, cars, appliances, etc.
And we still have the demographic problem of 180k boomers retiring every month that no one has a solution for that will create a growing labor crunch. It will be 10x worse if Trump wins and boots immigrants and/or blocks more immigration. Then throw in the tariffs and more tax cuts and it’s turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up.
Bringing in millions of functionally illiterate and low-skilled illegal immigrants is not a solution. This only creates a huge dependent class of unemployable non-workers living on government largess. And if that isn’t inflationary and debt increasing, I don’t know what is.
“Bringing in millions of functionally illiterate…”
Wrong, you think Europeans that came to North America in 1492 were all degreed professionals? The most vibrant economies in any city are the “Chinatowns” “Little Mexicos” “Little Indias” other immigrant enclaves.
And you should visit every meat packing plant, farm, restaurant, landscaping company, construction company and see who is working there, then imagine them all disappearing overnight.
But it doesn’t matter what I or you say anyway, we have no control over any of it. Politicians will pretend to do something about it but they won’t because they are fully aware of the demographic issue. The fact they rarely talk of it speaks volumes and most people don’t even notice or question it.
Your conflating legal immigration with illegal immigration. The Legal immigrants in prior times were not eligible for government benefits. Eliminate ALL government benefits for immigrants and then your immigration system can become a net positive. Without that change, it is a drain.
We have “illegal” immigration because politicians won’t do anything to fix the legal immigration problem so tens of thousands of business owners across America hire them “illegally” and here we are.
It’s all done with feigned outrage and a wink and nod.
As of yesterday…BIDEN TO THE RESCUE!
“Eliminate ALL government benefits for immigrants..”
And for their children.
And their children.
And….
etc.,etc.
There were no ‘degreed professionals’ in 1492 in the sense there are today.
The people who came in 1492 were tradesmen in the things they needed for survival: farming, animal husbandry, carpentry etc.
Even more important than that, those who came worked. There was no social services given to them by the Indians who resided here.
“There was no social services given to them by the Indians who resided here.”
Lol. You heard of something called Thanksgiving Day?
It’s *believed* (ie not known for sure) that it comes from a shared feast in 1621. But no one knows for sure this feast took place and even if it did, it was a shared feast, it wasn’t the Indians feeding the colonists.
So let me know when the illegals bring enough food to share in a feast with Americans.
Also, the death rate for those Mayflower colonists was 45 of 102 in the first winter (44%). Imagine if the death rate for the illegals was 44%. I suspect they wouldn’t be coming here at all. Maybe that’s the answer, stop feeding, clothing and housing them and let the death rate rise dramatically and see if it fixes the problem.
“There were no ‘degreed professionals’ in 1492 in the sense there are today.”
There were. Several universities existed. You had doctors. Clergy etc.
And; as opposed to today; Having graduated from, say, Padua back then; meant something. It wasn’t just some impressive-to-those-easily-impressed nonsense tacked on to the name of the dilettante offspring of some Fed Welfare Queen, in exchange for Dilettante Kid hanging out in a frat house for a few years.
Thing Galileo. Vs Janet Yellen….
A degree was not needed for any job like it is today (ie licensed professional).
Sure, degrees existed and so did universities but they weren’t needed in the colonies. All that was needed were trades people.
A “degree” is not needed for any real job, period.
Instead, at best, a “degree” indicates that someone is more likely than not to have a set of skills, and/or perhaps aptitude, making him more likely to perform well at some job.
All that is pretty much out the door, once every dilettante offspring of some Fed Welfare Queen has some “degree.” Then/now, it largely conveys nothing of value anymore.
For pure makework; sure. Once nearly all money “earned” is not in exchange for value adding work; but rather for filling a chair specifically designed for the purpose of nothing more than pretending pointless dilettantes are doing “work” in exchange for the loot The Fed and Junta is handing them…;then yes: A “degree” is probably a pretty good indicator that your daddy is connected enough to live off of Fed Welfare. And hence that his dilettante offspring should be awarded the unearned privilege of doing nothing but pointless makework in exchange for said welfare as well.
The natives taught the settlers how to grow food, hunt, and get around. They were fools to do so. They should have killed white people on sight.
Drivers, warehouse workers, janitorial, restaurant workers, landscape workers, nursing home help, maintenance, automotive services ad infinitum. What do you mean we can’t use low skill immigrant labor??!! This is nuts…
What about native born Americans? They can do those jobs too.
It’s a solution if you don’t want to have to change grandma’s diaper at home yourself. But you do you, I guess.
“Bringing in millions of functionally illiterate and low-skilled illegal immigrants is not a solution.”
Compared to handing control of all of America’s wealth; and decision making power over all America’s once-were industry; to a few million much more both functionally illiterate and no-skilled, straight up idiots; some millions of young people don’t even make it to the roundoff stage.
Simply being “skilled” enough to know which direction North is, in order to figure out which direction to start walking; puts each and every one of those guys far, far ahead on “skills,” vs anyone “running a Hedge Fund”, “making money off their home” or otherwise destroying Fed loot hand over fist. It’s not even a contest.
America became a third world country on account of handing unearned wealth, by the trillions, to connected but nothing but utterly incompetent and illiterate Americans stupid enough to think they “made money”; as opposed to simply received money stolen from their betters; off of childish “ownership society” value-destroying drivel. Not on account of dudes performing actual value-adding work like gardening and selling tacos.
expecting rate cuts because it’s what “The Street” demands is misguided, imo.
Powell has proven to be a different animal… he is clearly not the same species as Bernanke & Yellen. For example, Powell has discussed at length the extraordinary Voelker rate-hike cycle, which was preceded & catalyzed by Voelker’s own PREMATURE rate cuts. Voelker himself has admitted that the mid-cycle cuts were ill-advised – a mistake – because inflation had NOT been tamed, and the Fed was bullied by Mr. Market’s emotional myopia.
i do not believe Powell will make this same mistake. I believe Powell will maintain the Higher For Longer policy – a policy that has been explicitly informed by the Voelker lesson. Someone somewhere is going to eat the pain & bleed-out. There is no “Easy Button” fix, and (imo) the Fed has been very transparent in communicating both the dilemma & their likely response.
CRE needs & deserves a haircut, if not amputation. ResRE must also adjust to now entrenched, gerenational supply/demand realities. paper assets remain priced for ZIRP.
i strongly doubt that Powell will apply rate-cut bandages before the necessary surgery is complete & the blood-loss is quantified. Powell himself has said as much on multiple occasions.
markets refuse to listen… typically irrational market behavior, imo.
Even if rates go down, the prices will shoot up, and it will still take everything they have to make the house payments. There won’t be anything left for consumer goods.
“For the past two years whenever one segment of the economy misfired, another picked up. Some labeled this a rolling recession.”
I like this analysis, in that is seems to be a better description of what the economic reality is rather than a simple black-and-white calendar date — “The recession began this month…”
Also, is the data released by the government reliable? No president wants a recession to be declared during his time in office, so do the appropriate agencies play their part?
You are ON to it but no one out here with a single functioning brain cell is influenced by the posturing and lying.
I no longer vote and have not done so since Bush I.
So which sector will pick up in the third quarter, and how can you have a recession when a record number of people are traveling by Air
How cannot it not w/ Biden printing/spending like a drunken socialist sailor? Even fiat money can run out…
Bruce, blame the entire Government for being in a feeding frenzy which makes us all wonder how long it can last without a collapse!