In another sign of economic weakness, the amount of “looking for greener pastures” job hopping is below pre-pandemic levels especially in key sectors, 5 charts.
The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover report shows continued weakness in opening, hires and separations.
Recent data is for May 2024 thus lags the payroll report by about a month.
Job Openings
- On the last business day of May, the number of job openings changed little at 8.1 million. This measure was down by 1.2 million over the year.
- Job openings decreased in accommodation and food services (-147,000) and in private educational services (-34,000). The number of job openings increased in state and local government, excluding education (+117,000), durable goods manufacturing (+97,000), and federal government (+37,000).
The state and local opening are directly related to handing the surge in immigration Weakness in accommodation and food service is pronounced.
Hires
- Hires In May, the number of hires was little changed at 5.8 million.
- Over the year, hires were down by 415,000.
Separations
- Se[arations include quits, layoffs and discharges.
- Quits are voluntary separations initiated by the employee.
- Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer.
Job Quits by Sector in Thousands
Two if the biggest sources of jobs in the recovery were in accommodation and food service, and Leisure and Hospitality.
The number of quits in those areas are below pre-pandemic levels. Otherwise, things are back to normal or nearly back to normal.
Job Openings, Hires, Separations, Quits
Job openings have crashed from a peak of 11.8 million in April of 2022 to 8.1 million in May of 2025.
In just over two years, opening plunged by 3.6 million, a decline of 30.1 percent.
However, openings are up about 1.2 million from February of 2020. This assumes you believe the numbers.
It costs nothing to leave an online posting posting and some of these positions have been filled, some are spoofs, and some are along the lines of “If the perfect person comes by, we may be interested.”
In contrast, layoffs and quits are hard data.
Labor Leverage Ratio
The quits rate is a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.
The labor leverage ratio (LLR), defined as quits divided by the sum of layoffs and discharges, shows whether labor or employers are setting the pace. The indicator is currently in neutral.
LLR is a very lagging measure that tends to plunge well after a recession has started. That’s when people are more fearful of loosing their job than any desire to look for greener pastures.
The ratio now shows a topping pattern, just as one might expect when overall economic data is weakening.
A String of Very Weak Economic Data Sinks the GDPNow Forecast
Key Point on Real Final Sales
Nearly everyone focuses on the headline number of 1.7 percent. But its Real Final Sales (RFS) that matters. The difference between the numbers is inventory adjustment, Change in Private Inventories (CIPI), which nets to zero over time.
RFS is the real bottom line estimate for the economy and that’s what the NBER will use to call a recession.
At 1.1 percent and falling fast, RFS looks very recessionary.
What Happened?
On July 1, I noted A String of Very Weak Economic Data Sinks the GDPNow Forecast
July 1: In response to ISM and the construction spending, the contribution for Gross Private Domestic investment fell from from 1.51 percentage points (PP) to 1.20 PP.
June 27: The GDPNow contribution for net exports fell from -0.56 PP to -0.95 PP.
Those two items account for 70 basis points, 0.70 PP of the decline in the GDPNow forecast.
Elsewhere, new home sales, housing starts, existing home sales, new durable goods orders, and even real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending are very weak.
I am increasingly confident a recession has started or soon will.
M
MSM and financial news. Rate cuts coming! Buy stonks! S&P 6000 in the bag!
And this explains why inflation cannot be stopped:
SCOPING THE COMING CRISIS
As you may know, the central contention of the Surplus Energy Economics thesis is the absolute necessity of thinking in terms of two economies. These are the “real” economy of material products and services, and the parallel “financial” economy of money, transactions and credit.
In purely intellectual terms, exploring and quantifying this conception would have been interesting at any time. It’s fascinating to watch political and commercial decisions being taken in deference to a set of classical economic precepts which remain resolutely trapped in pre-industrial conditions.
But, by dint of timing, the ‘two economies’ distinction has taken on enormous practical significance.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/07/03/282-built-to-order/
I 100% agree with one of the comments to the surplusenergyeconomics post by Matt.
“probably the most important point is that after historical bubbles burst it was possible to recover and then get back to growth,
but after the coming financial cataclysm there won’t be the surplus energy to recover, it will be a partial recovery, but never reaching the current levels again,
I think after ‘the big one’ it will become apparent for all to see, the era of rapid growth powered by the copious surplus energy that fossil fuels provided, is over.
as Spike Milligan would say: “what are we going to do now?””
This recession will be different in that the mid to longer term recovery will actually be depressionary with the degrowth that is to follow. It will be a worldwide depression with various regions faring better than others. Of the advanced countries, I predict Europe will foreshadow what is coming to North America.
Nobody is quitting including Biden. No separation between Biden/Harris. Biden mission is to end the wars in Ukraine and the ME, before giving Gamala a clean slate, stealing Trump plans. Lewy Body Dementia don’t matter. Money flow to swing states, to our nationally important and the war industries do matter.
Summer sales: Massive discounts across Belgium amid record-low sales
https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/1119533/massive-discounts-summer-sales-kick-off-amid-record-low-sales-tbtb
Deflationary Death Spiral ahead?????
Nope they will just print till the cows come home Oh right they’re banning cows
The thing is …
At some point printing will push on a string … and then the string will snap back…
In the form of out of control inflation … people are already starting to cut back on discretionary spending because necessities are costing them so much…
Inevitably the job losses will come … and if they are unable to stop the rot (can they unleash trillions and drop rates to float everyone’s boat without triggering hyperinflation?) ….
The deflationary death spiral will commence
Trump Floats ‘Televised Military Tribunals’ for Jailing Top Dem & GOP Politicians
https://vigilantnews.com/post/trump-floats-televised-military-tribunals-for-jailing-top-dem-gop-politicians/
He’ll do this right after he ‘drains the swamp’ (registered TM) – right?
I can’t afford to work.
I see that those analysing the job numbers are still refusing to acknowledge the elephant thrashing about in the China shop….
Vaccine injuries and deaths. Ever single one of those = a job opening.
Is that a positive for the economy? I think not
Not every one Some retired people who succumbed weren’t in the job numbers
Yes of course…
Should we now discuss possible COVID-19 vaccine negative effectiveness?
‘Because COVID-19 vaccines were approved without long-term safety data and might cause immune dysfunction, it is perhaps premature to assume that past SARS-CoV-2 infection is the sole common factor in long COVID’.1
Australian Journal of General Practice
https://www1.racgp.org.au/ajgp/2024/july/letters?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Bingo!!! Now that is why I have been seeing so many Vaxxers constantly sick over the past couple of years…. lots of very fit people getting severely sick…
Then there are all those cancers… usually turbo in nature… guess that’s what happens when your immune system is not functioning… it does not eliminate dodgy cells and you end up with cancer… and it rips through the body fast cuz the immune system is not in play
I was driving up Brand Blvd, the main commercial street in Glendale, yesterday. Stopped at a light, i saw a corner store front newly boarded up. I started glancing at businesses and noticed some other “for lease” signs. As i waited to turn left onto the freeway, both buildings on the north corners had “office space for lease” signs displayed.
In California, I’m shocked I tell ya
Interesting. I lived on Central, down by Vons during the great recession. The Americana wasn’t built yet, and the current Bloomingdale’s was a Mervyns. When Mervyns closed, it eliminated the foot traffic on that pseudo 3rd floor of the Galleria. It was very empty. You could pull in the parking garage and park in that area, right next to the door any time of day. I imagine it’s packed nowadays.
Tower records was empty. The recession was not good on Glendale. A 1 br apartment was $900.
This was about the time Highland Park and other areas started their gentrification. I’d take my daughter to Echo Park on Sundays and coworkers thought I was crazy. I didn’t see any problems, the change was beginning. I always thought it was neat because the park was full of people selling tacos and elote and palettas. This was about 2009, I haven’t been back to Glendale or the Eastside since.
We have Friends here in their 70’s and their 45 year old Kids (Married Couple) have moved in with them because they fell behind on utility bills in Cal. So, they refused to pay the bills and are now applying for welfare bene’s (Both Kids are “Disabled” yet COULD WORK, but do not want to). Mom and Dad are giving them a year. Father in law gave them a year of rent. He stopped. THIS WOULD NEVER HAVE HAPPENED IN the 80’s when I was in my 30’s and 40’s. These kids DO NOT WANT TO WORK. They are getting FOOD STAMP CARDS NOW.
Agree. All my siblings and myself COULD NOT WAIT to get out of my parents house. All 6 of us turned 18 in the 1980’s. My parents would have all over us every day to get jobs and move out (especially my mom…who was “the general”). I never lived with my parents after high school except one summer in college. I did whatever it took…. lots of roomates, multiple crappy jobs, extreme frugality. The fear of living with my parents kept a fire under my butt!
Same here Moved out in 78 and bought my first three family in Brooklyn in 80
When I was growing up, if you were staying with your parents at 20 you were considered a loser already if you were male. Girls could stay longer for obvious reasons.
That’s just stupid
As long as Mr. Market is at ATH, home prices are at or near ATH and short bonds getting 5%, the let-them-eat-cake culture and sanguine ignoring of these slowing/recessionary facts will persist. The bifurcated American continues to widen and ONLY when Marie Antionette finally has her head lopped off will there be the start of resolution. Non asset holders and those living paycheck to paycheck are just getting squeezed further. But a lot of folks are as rich, on paper, as they’ve ever been. The wealth effect can carry and has carried on a very long time.
Way back in the day, like perhaps before 2018 lol, uncertainty like we’re seeing politically would have sent equities markets a bit of a shiver. The regulatory overreach will unwind with the SCOTUS ruling but the debt ceiling conversation is gonna come back in the next Presidential and Congressional term. Yet, carry on. No sense the markets have of trouble ahead. Prices and multiples continue to expand. I send liquidity abounds behind the scenes.
We’ll see if, when Main Street loses jobs but gets little relief on the home, goods and services cost front, this bullet-proof market finally takes a few shots. I know a lot of folks that CAN afford things are choosing to NOT spend on them because what got them to this point is their penchance to spend less than they make. I know others that CANNOT afford much on the discretionary side.
I’ll believe we’ll see ramifications of a recession when we are many months into one, not until. We haven’t seen one official month of one in a very long time, initial pandemic months notwithstanding. I hate what it means but we desperately need one.
This political cycle’s uncertainty being disregarded is strange but I suspect they know the outcome and realize, for the most part, this s show is on autopilot.
Re “In contrast, layoffs and quits are hard data.”
Not so sure – this is a survey, with a low and declining response rate. That implies a significant error bar on the numbers.
The national-recession scenario only kicks in when unemployment is rising and people start choosing not to quit b/c they know they cannot easily find another job. If that was happening in a widespread way, I think there’d be more evidence for it.
Neither I or Dave Ramsey see any home price drops, any time soon. Way too many buyers, way too few sellers, open borders and a frenzy waiting for rates to drop. If hone prices do drop someday, what higher tham today median do they drop from?
Volume is way down, so your “too many buyers” thing is a bunch of bs. What’s happened is that the market has frozen except on the high end. And that’s why median prices have gone up even with the market frozen.
Yeah, lots of sales or turnover for high end (+$1 million homes) because they are coming in with all cash deals.
Anyone buying on high end has a high end job and a big bank account so it does not matter if the 30 year mortgage rate is 7% compared to 3% when home prices peaked around February 2022.
I’m seeing very little churn, transactions or sales for working class homes (3 bedroom, 2 car garage townhomes within 2 miles of beach in Florida panhandle).
About 50% of sales of these townhomes typically are landlord investors, and they are remaining on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop.
The gap in average income and average home prices is really bad. Unless it’s a fixer upper or in a sad part of town not happening for most. It likely gets worse before it gets better unfortunately. Also, only around 6% make 100K or more. I think it’s less. People are stressed out.
That has been a topic of conversation for a long time. Yet, Treasuries and mortgage rates continue to climb, even though September is the new normal for a cut. Until housing prices drop more, interest rates start dropping, and election spending is over, a recession will stay seated.
People are going on welfare. It is TOO EASY to do it. As long as freebies are handed out, a recession will not be announced.
Yes lots of lower income people on welfare. What is it almost $80 million on Medicaid (aka free healthcare)? Many tens of millions on food stamps, reduced gov’t housing. Lots of disability fraud. Food banks get a lot of business. We have UBI already, just don’t call it that.
I read using Google Gemini AI that about $660 billion was spent on federal debt service in 2023, compared to
$773 billion for the Pentagon
$887 billion for Medicaid
$302 billion for Veteran Affairs (about $151 billion of this went to VA disability and income security/pension payments)
It took until the Biden regime to reach the point that the federal governments a lot more on Medicaid than the Pentagon.
I wonder if that rapid increase in Medicaid is due to Biden’s open border policy.
.
New Rule Makes Clear that Noncitizens Who Receive Health or Other Benefits to which they are Entitled Will Not Suffer Harmful Immigration Consequences
Accessing Children’s Health Insurance Program and Most Medicaid Benefits Will Not Affect Immigration Status
A growing number of states are opening taxpayer-funded health insurance programs to immigrants, including those living in the U.S. without authorization, even as Republicans assail President Joe Biden over a dramatic increase in illegal crossings of the southern border.
Eleven states and Washington, D.C., together provide full health insurance coverage to more than 1 million low-income immigrants regardless of their legal status, according to state data compiled by KFF Health News. Most aren’t authorized to live in the U.S., state officials say.
Enrollment in these programs could nearly double by 2025 as at least seven states initiate or expand coverage. In January, Republican-controlled Utah will start covering children regardless of immigration status, while New York and California will widen eligibility to cover more adults.
Exactly, MUCH too easy