The normalization of the labor market is complete. The propensity to change jobs for higher pay is at or near pre-pandemic levels in all key job areas. 
Three Key Ideas
- Quits and hires are actual events (within the bounds of BLS accuracy).
- Hires and separations (layoffs and quits) are hard data, in contrast to openings that may not be real.
- Quits reflect the propensity to job hop looking for better offers but also retirement. Quits have fallen to pre-pandemic levels.
Openings Changed Little
According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey News Release “The number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million on the last business day of February. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.”
Job Listings Abound, but Many Are Fake
Openings are down from a record 11.773 million to a still very elevated 8.756 million.
However, many of these openings are stale or fishing expeditions where there is willingness to hire but only for the perfect person.
Demographics are also in play. Millions of boomer retirements are underway. Companies do need to fill jobs or part-time jobs when aging boomers start working fewer hours.
The Labor Leverage Ratio (LLR) is the number of quits divided by the number of discharges, firings, and layoffs initiated by employers.
The BLS notes “the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.” The LLR is a refinement to the quits rate.
Quits and the Labor Leverage Ratio provide a much more compelling story than openings.
In February, the labor leverage ratio is very near pre-pandemic levels.
US Born Employment is Down By Over 1 Million Since 2020
On March 9, I noted US Born Employment is Down By Over 1 Million Since 2020
Change Since February 2020
- Employment Level: +2,298,000
- US Born Employment: -1,007,000
- Foreign Born Employment: +3,305,000
Foreign Born Definition
Those born outside the United States (or one of its outlying areas such as Puerto Rico or Guam), and neither parent was a U.S. citizen. The foreign born include legally-admitted immigrants, refugees, temporary residents such as students and temporary workers, and illegal immigrants.
Jobs Up 275,000 with 52,000 More Government Jobs, Employment Down 184,000
For more discussion of the February employment report, please see my detailed report Jobs with seven charts: Jobs Up 275,000 with 52,000 More Government Jobs, Employment Down 184,000
This Friday the BLS will report the March numbers.
In the next 5 years employment in age groups 60+ will drop by ~12.5 million
Due to age demographics, I expect employment in age groups 60 and over to decline by about 12.5 million. Let’s go over the math to see how I arrived at that number.
Boomer retirements and deaths are unlike anything this country has ever seen.
The demographic change is sure to impact views of recessions and job losses in recessions.
The Fed has been surprised by the strength of the labor market despite massive interest rate hiking. I was not surprised as I have been talking about these demographics for years.
For more details and discussion of the most significant labor change in decades, please see In the next 5 years employment in age groups 60+ will drop by ~12.5 million
if biden gets his way he’ll put me out of business
as I use ICA exclusively – been issuing work orders per ICA
but if he says – they’re employees – I say YOUR NOW FIRED and unemployed and on own
I retire and walk away with salute to FJB
And someone ELSE takes that business…
Deal with it…you’re getting OLD. Other businesses will take that Revenue.
I’ve seen buyers just do less work and charge less rent
someone ELSE takes that business – sure but still only gets 1/2 job
Happy days for contractors.
Labor market is getting less tight and this should help with curtailing labor inflation, and perhaps we’ll see a reduction in inflation for services within PCE and CPI.
So 200,000 new workers a month just to keep up with retirements.
I thought we were graduating more than 200k(new workers) each month
not counting illegals
Thanks Mish. ISM has turned positive. Labor market is returning to normal. Energy demand is increasing. Slow economic growth continues.
Thank goodness we have so many imported workers to fill those jobs that many Americans are too lazy or unqualified to do, and to support our economy.
Meanwhile as energy prices rise, I continue to sell into strength. Cash position up to 24% now. Looking forward to the next correction where I can put most of it to work again.
Whatever happened to the voices here calling for $40 oil? Or the coming 90% stock market decline? Or the next depression? I have been waiting for their prognostications to come true now for the last 3 years here.
When you say, “imported workers”, I assume you’re talking about the millions of illegal aliens the Biden administration is secretly busing into cities across the country in the dead of night.
Illegals can’t legally work and should not be able to be counted unless they’ve magically qualified for a work visa.
Imported workers should comprise those here on legal visas (temporary ones like the millions of ones issued for agricultural workers who work a few months in the fields, and permanent ones like NAFTA, H1B, Green card holders etc).
Biden’s aides reaching for his credit card to buy a wand.
Like Texas Tim? He’s an import. Don’t know if he got here on a bus.
Nah foolish person. There’s Twenty MILLION Legal Immigrant workers that are here in the US and another 2-ish Million come here legally every year. The labor market would be bonkers without them.
You are a fckn HERO , we know by now….so please QUIT the bs, you made yr point !
Thanks! But actually, I am trying to dispel all the BS that appears in this comment section. When I have time anyway.
You’ve got your work cut out there matey.
I think maybe a bit more to this situation.
If one looks at most recent ISM Manufacturing report. Prices were increasing at faster rate. Backlog of orders Contracting at same rate as prior.
Spells out Stagflationary environment as a shrinking backlog means new orders not keeping up with production output. Job creation would appear to be waning or stable based upon this report as there is little need to create more productive capacity.
Job hopping would less likely result as fewer better opportunities are manifesting.
Have to see what comes out on Friday.
After all Hilary just came out and said get over yourself. Translated into common language it means you are now a Global citizen so just get used to being screwed over.
By the way many Boomers all though officially able to qualify for retirement can not as Obamacare has bankrupted middle class and people still must work to make choice between having a roof over their head and/or affording health care premiums.
Healthcare in the US has been messed up WAY before Obama even thought about running for Pres. Too many middlemen and getting ripped off by BIG Pharma, BIG Insurance and not supplying basic preventative healthcare like all other normal advanced countries. Too many ER visits and poor health situations because the population is out of shape and we allow too much crap in our foods.
Clearly you don’t know what you’re talking about. Still plenty of job openings. Just chatted with a friend of mine who has a 75 year old manufacturing biz here in the US and he can’t find enough workers. The gap is at the largest rate in the company history. (And he hasn’t been able to do so for the previous three or four years.) Plenty of work to do…plenty of jobs needing filled. Plenty of people retiring EVERY DAY, which means there will be job openings for years. Add to that Strategic Manufacturing being set up in the US to prevent Chinese / Foreign Supply Issues from continuing to happen…there’s LOTS to do. Plus we now need to build a bridge in Baltimore… 😉
Politifact (an official approved fact checker) states: “The foreign-born labor force is relatively small — in 2023, foreign-born workers accounted for just under 20% of all workers.”
I’m stunned that it is that high. And it probably doesn’t include the undocumented working under the table. At what point does it not become “relatively small”? 30%? 40%? It was 9% in 1990.
NAFTA dramatically increased foreign born workers in the USA.
I came here from Canada in 96 on a NAFTA work Visa and still remain on one. Countless people in Canada and Mexico have done the same.
Then factor in the H1B visa increases after the internet boom took off in the late 90s and continues to this day.
I once looked into going to Canada, but it’s ruined now. Just a boring overpriced frozen wasteland full of broken English immigrants. They’re busy ruining Australia and the UK, and much of Europe now. Everything has to break before whitey wakes up and revolts.
That super low number was pulled out of their behind. Some tech shops are full foreign with token domestic participation.
In Canada you can get citizenship in three year, and you are counted as domestic.
For some, it was getting too expensive to pay the 14 year old kid down the street to cut their lawn.
The foreign-born are working. I would look at that as something very positive because that is what they are supposed to do when they come here. The native-born not working is probably due to the wave of Boomers retiring.
But they remit a lot of money out of the country, and they tend to try and work in the informal economy (abd black market) to avoid tax. It tends to be second and third generations that try to integrate and pay tax. First generation are always a net loss to a country.
Excellent article!
I am only surprised that unmentioned for Boomers/Elderly, is the fact that many must work P/T to get by, and the number is increasing due to health insurance cost, and medical care (incl. Prescriptions).
The money within this group is not sufficient, on the whole, for them all to be cared for. The money saved or thought to be enough, in many cases isn’t today, because of inflation and rent cost just to name a couple.
I see this in New England Everywhere. Mostly cash register, window, clean up jobs, which are plentiful right now, but many skilled careers as well, for the same ultimate reasons.
This number may not increase as much as you think, if this was not taken into account. Mostly below 70, but those transfers up may not take place as a result as well. Just my thoughts on it.
And the quits just keep coming!
Take this job and shove it
Whelp, Tesla just announced 1st quarter deliveries and they are an unmitigated disaster.
https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-stock-first-quarter-deliveries-expectations-are-rock-bottom/
Looks like the bloom is off the EV rose for Telsa too and investors are going to realize soon that it’s a car company and not a tech company (they are giving away a month of self driving for free now as an incentive)
No thanks on the EVs. And I don’t want to be forced to buy one ever. My body my choice
It will yo-yo for a while.