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JPMorgan Rattles Markets With 28% Drop in Profits and $428 Million In Loan loss Provisions

Index and bond charts courtesy of Investing.Com, annotations by Mish

JPMorgan Misses Earnings Estimates

The Wall Street Journal reports JPMorgan Profit Drops 28% as Bank Signals Concern on Economy.

  • 28 percent decline in earnings
  • Profit fell to $8.65 billion, or $2.76 per share, falling short of the $2.89-per-share forecast by analysts surveyed by FactSet.
  • Revenue rose 1% to $30.72 billion. Analysts expected $31.81 billion.
  • In the consumer bank, revenue fell 1% and profit dropped 45%, largely reflecting a release of funds set aside for soured loans in the second quarter of 2021. 

A year ago the bank pulled $3 billion from loan loss provisions boosting earnings to $3.78 per share. 

Today, the bank set aside another $428 million and I suggest that is likely the start of it. 

Jamie Dimon Flashback

On June 2, Jamie Dimon Says U.S. Consumers Still Have Six to Nine Months of Spending Power

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said U.S. consumers still have some six to nine months of spending power left in their bank accounts but warned of an economic “hurricane” brewing.

The head of the nation’s biggest bank said the recent drop in Americans’ savings rate hadn’t altered his view that the government’s pandemic stimulus is still padding consumers’ wallets. He estimated that some $2 trillion in extra funds are still waiting to be spent. said U.S. consumers still have some six to nine months of spending power left in their bank accounts but warned of an economic “hurricane” brewing.

Hurricane Has Arrived

The hurricane has arrived. And that $2 trillion in savings? 

Perhaps it has been spent.

A Debate Over Excess Savings, How Much Stimulus Still Hasn’t Been Spent?

On June 3, I asked A Debate Over Excess Savings, How Much Stimulus Still Hasn’t Been Spent?

Big Excess?

Don’t be so sure.

Free money that goes to bottom rung households tends to immediately get spent. The higher the rung, the longer the savings remain unspent. This is complicated by the fact that most of the money was supposed to go to lower tiers, and further complicated by corporate fraud, especially in round one.

More importantly, personal spending does not count down payments on homes, mortgage paydowns, stock market or Bitcoin purchases, capital expenses for businesses, drug money, other illegal uses, or money sent to relatives overseas.

Paying down debt is also saving. Money paying down credit card bills also constitutes saving. 

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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53 Comments
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Oldest Most Voted
Tony_J
Tony_J
3 years ago
Thanks for everything Mish, I’ve been reading your stuff for a lot of years and glad to have a chance to direct a question straight to you or someone who can help.
Is there anyone out there that can tell me if I have this right or not. There are four parts of a real estate sale, A) the seller B) the buyer C) the bank and D) the pension fund. The buyer approaches the bank and gets the loan, say $100K to close the deal. They give (pay) the funds to the seller and the bank arranges the credit to the sellers account either at that bank or the sellers bank. The buyer takes possession of the property and the liability side of the mortgage. The bank retains the asset side of the mortgage and then sells it to the pension fund …. funds are then debited from the pension funds bank account and credited to the banks account within their own said bank, which increases the banks reserves making even more of this possible. Depending on the interest rates the sell price of the asset side of the mortgage might be discounted below face value of the mortgage.
This is totally absurd if it’s true ….. an incredible amount of money and power in private hands.
Thanks for any help,
Tony_J
az_dirt
az_dirt
3 years ago
Hmm, today, Friday, was filled with hopium.
worleyeoe
worleyeoe
3 years ago
The S&P 500 finished down less than 12 points. Yeah, that’s rattled alright. Mish, given the ups & downs of the markets these days, you may want to write these articles post 4 pm EST.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
3 years ago
Don’t these banks get to write off the losses and limit their corporate taxes ?
prumbly
prumbly
3 years ago
All companies get to write off losses. And no one pays tax on money they don’t make.
jiminy
jiminy
3 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
Unless you work fo governemnt.
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Biden realized that MBS & Putin determine oil prices, not in TX. Oil might drop to the low 70’s before rising in a sling shot above 2008 high.
JRM
JRM
3 years ago
Where’s the mention losses from leaving Russia..
Noticed no West MSM media is mentioning the hits to West businesses that have abandoned Russia!!!
Watch for a wave in hits to their bottom line, but than refuse to admit it was “THEIR business moves” that’s caused their financial problems!!!
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
3 years ago
Reply to  JRM

Russia had about the 11th largest economy in the world before the invasion of Ukraine.

JRM
JRM
3 years ago
And now WEST corps are loosing billions of dollars, which they can’t hide, but they can “LIE” about what is causing their problems to their bottom line!!!
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Biden flipped 180 degrees of Bernie & AOC : he likes oil, coal and Israel.
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
In the next few months crude oil might drop to the 73 area, before rising above Mar 2022 highs and possibly above 2018 high.
JP whatever u do in July and say in the Snake River, CL don’t care.
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
3 years ago
Maybe the stimulus went to cryptocurrency accounts.
effendi
effendi
3 years ago
What do you mean by lower rung people spend their money as soon as they get it?
I never see lots of old people at the shops on pension day. Claims that people load their shopping carts with junk food just before midnight as their EBT cards are reloaded must me a myth. Nobody lives paycheck to paycheck relying on pawn shops, payday loans and credit cards and nobody has multiple maxed out cards.
Yep, half the population is broke and spent the free money long ago. Most of the rest will be wondering why is it hard to manage when they got a 5% pay rise (as their weekly grocery and fuel expenses are way up). Plus what happened to my mortgage rate?
Yes, many have low rate fixed mortgages, but that means they cannot move without a reset to a much higher level. Lower house turnover equals less money spent on new appliances or decorating the house you move into. Less need for agents, less need for loan originators etc.
Robbyrob
Robbyrob
3 years ago
Reply to  effendi
not here Wallys are packed on the 4thof the month, a sea of cars. Fairly standard procedure to avoid Wallys around SS Disability ck time
JRM
JRM
3 years ago
Reply to  effendi
Somebody living in their Mansion???
honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
3 years ago
most of the loss was due to dealmaking gone dead and due to accounting change from last year
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
It starts with a rattle, then comes the shuddering, then it goes BANG! KERWHACKETAWHACKETAWHACKETA… and the smoke comes out.
MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Around this time last year there were many commentators making the case that the fed couldn’t raise interest rates because the higher vig would make debt un-serviceable. With the fed poised to raise 100 points at the next meeting, where are those people now?
Who’s doing the calculation on the debt servicing payments? I’d like to know where the breaking point is with regards to the fed rate if anyone knows. I’m not a bond aficionado so somebody throw me a bone.
PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
They have moved on to other things that they are also 100% certain of. When their guaranteed prediction doesn’t come true, they switch to a different guaranteed prediction. There is a lot of that here. It’s why I only bother responding to a few people in the comment section. Too many nut jobs.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
Most debt is locked in at lower rates. It’s only new debt and debt that is rolling over that will have to be financed at current rates. So it will take a while (years) for the current rates to matter for the federal debt.
MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
If that’s true then we’ll be back to lower rates in a few years and they’ll just roll over debt?
Robbyrob
Robbyrob
3 years ago
American railway workers are considering striking It will mean a disastrous chaotic crash of the economy
PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  Robbyrob

Canadian rail workers threatened a strike and then settled. So did Norwegian oil workers. Lots of threats. Not many actual strikes of significance. Though the threat makes people panic a lot.

shamrock
shamrock
3 years ago
Gold is really breaking down, dropping under $1700 today. Where are the support levels? Looks like $1680 and $1450.
PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  shamrock
Forget gold. Its a dead asset.
honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
3 years ago
Reply to  shamrock
I gave it to you long ago 1640
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  shamrock
Gold isn’t down. USD is up. Gold has done very well in other currencies.
kansasdude
kansasdude
3 years ago
Being on the ground with ‘regular folk’ I laugh at this 6 to 9 months of spending power. It truly shows how out of touch these elite jackasses are.
JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
The car loan delinquency numbers contradict optimism about the consumer. Big losses on loans taken out in ’20 and ’21. Lots of poo-bahs telling themselves lots of lies, but numbers always trump words.
You’d imagine that the high-I.Q. people are less susceptible to delusions and denial, but my observations over the decades suggest otherwise.
Christoball
Christoball
3 years ago
Reply to  JackWebb
Once smart people believe something it is really hard for them to change their mind because they were “so smart” when they came to their original conclusion. This is why I try and maintain my sweet spot high double digit IQ.
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
the best traders/investors are men that love to be wrong more than right. it’s how most make the best money. of course there are a few folks with special skills like buffett an insider with inside information………….and other cunning runts like cohen etc………….but most great traders have lots of little losers and a few big winners each year/decades……..
MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Reply to  JackWebb
Excellent news, this means there is profit opportunity. Do you know where? Hint…hint….debt collectors. There are two large public debt collection companies, guess which one I’ll be picking up tomorrow for my portfolio….
honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
we are talking to some of them as our tech stack for credit attributes rocks
honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
3 years ago
Reply to  JackWebb
bad algo underwriting, the LTV’s killed them…
Christoball
Christoball
3 years ago
JPM is a falling knife just like Oil and soon Austin/Phoenix/Boise/Reno etc. Real Estate. When I am in the kitchen I always wait until the knife hits the floor before reaching to pick it up.
Matt3
Matt3
3 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
Good point. Let us know when the knife is sticking in the floor!
Christoball
Christoball
3 years ago
Reply to  Matt3
As Mish reminds us, Booms end on good news, Busts end on bad news. Too many optimists left still.
effendi
effendi
3 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
Assuming it hits the floor. Could it go to zero? Lot of companies will and can the banks survive that short of the government backstopping them (again).
Steve_R
Steve_R
3 years ago
The bad and the good, Taiwan Semiconductor is a cash cow with a great earnings report and is giving the chip sector a boost. Plus they are building a new foundry in AZ.
kansasdude
kansasdude
3 years ago
Reply to  Steve_R
Dont those factories require huge amounts of water?? Arizona??? Is it for the slave immigration labor or is there another reason? Like being close to factories in Mexico?
Steve_R
Steve_R
3 years ago
Reply to  kansasdude
They recycle their water in the foundries that are build, also intel and on are also in AZ, geez isn’t Arizona in the United States. Great news and you turn it into something horrible in your mind
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Steve_R
Not to worry. They will suck the water out from under Colorado and Nevada.
MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Reply to  Steve_R
I took a look at it and it is a good buy except for the whole China may invade Taiwan scenario in which case the stock could go to zero. Risk/reward i guess but not for me right now in this geo-political belligerent environment.
JRM
JRM
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
The factories will remain intact, unless the Taiwan defenders blow them up, when the Chinese eventually takes over Taiwan..
I expect the troops showing up at these factories right before the bombs fly will show up in Taiwanese uniforms but be CPLA troops!!
Steve_R
Steve_R
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
Maybe that is why there are building in the US, everyone has it wrong, they may blow up their own factories in order to stop China from getting their hands on it. 80% of all chips are going though this company, it is a unique business. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hb1WDxSoSec
I am not staying long in much these days, still feel there is more down side risk. I have not felt the wash out yet.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
The price discovery process going on in oil is very interesting. Supply and demand should determine the price but does it really?
PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Supply/Demand does determine price in the long run in the physical market. In the short run, traders can cause wild swings in the financial market for oil.
I never complain about the wild swings that traders cause. I merely try to take advantage of the swings.
Loving the current volatility. A traders dream. Buying my favourite oil stocks on the dips and selling the rips. Bought a lot on this morning’s big dip. Sold almost all of it by days end on the big rip.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
You are a day trader then.
PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
I have a core position that is 75% of my portfolio. I trade the remaining 25%. Both day trading and swing trading.
honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
they are just going to take it down to bottom of channel at 82-85 area….its regular ole profit taking and repositioning
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Kitchen sink accounting strategy time.
MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Wow Mish, we must be on the same wavelength. I was just about to pull the trigger on picking up shares of JPM after today’s horrible report. I had the order entry on my screen and decided to wait till after the next Fed meeting. It may have further down to go if the fed hikes 100 points but we’ll see.

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