Ayes and Nays Both Win
At the Labour Party Conference, delegates voted on “composite 13”, whether or not the Labour Party should officially back Remain.
In a confusing hand vote the ayes and nays both won.
It’s impossible for the ayes and nays to both win, but that was the announcement, first in favor of backing Remain, then in favor of Neutrality.
The Guardian Live explains.
Some delegates are calling for a card vote. Wendy Nichols, the chair, seems to be resisting this. She says: “In my view it was carried.” Then she corrects herself. She says it was lost.
Just before she announced the vote, she said that she thought it went one way, but Jennie Formby, Labour’s general secretary, thought it went another way.
A delegate says this is one of the most important decisions facing the party. There should be a card vote.
Nichols says the vote was lost. She wants the party to be right with itself.
Rigged Vote
That’s a heavily edited set of paragraphs. The Guardian had a number of typos and confusing statements that I corrected to make it understandable.
The bottom line is that the vote was rigged. There should have been an actual ballot but Jeremy Corbyn would not allow one.
Guardian Snap Analysis
At Labour conference last year there were many delegates going around wearing T-shirts saying “Love Corbyn, Hate Brexit”. You don’t see those around any more.
Without a card vote, we don’t know what the exact voting figures were, and whether Corbyn would have won the votes without the support of the unions. The unions have 50% of the vote at conference and most of them were opposed to the “back remain now” composite 13. It was only going to pass if the vast majority of CLP delegates supported it. Last night that looked like a distinct possibility: of the 90 motions submitted by CLPs on Brexit, 81 of them were calling for Labour to back remain.
But the decision by Momentum this morning to advise its supporters to vote against composite 13 seems to have swayed the vote. About 70% of CLP delegates are said to be Momentum supporters. Forced to make a choice, a largish number of them – certainly enough to overturn expectations – lined up behind the leadership.
But there were also legitimate objections to composite 13 on policy grounds. Unite’s Howard Beckett put this argument as well as anyone, saying it would be a “car crash” if Labour was committed to obtaining a Brexit deal that it was already determined to campaign against.
Victory for Whom?
The Guardian called this a victory for Corbyn.
I suggest Corbyn’s position is so convoluted that he was bound to lose no matter which way the vote went.
The two choices were “Remain” and “Negotiate a Deal then hold a Referendum on It”.
Pick your poison, both are losing propositions.
Corbyn’s Credibility Issue
Hand Vote Rigged
Labour Depends on Those Who Don’t Care
No Position on Single Biggest Issue
Full Scale Revolt
Today we see the revolt was squashed, not by a real vote with ballots, but a rigged hand vote.
One Seriously Disgruntled Labour MP
“We are chanting, cult-like, the name of a leader who has a public approval rating of -65. We deserve everything coming to us.“
EU Will Not Be Impressed
One thing is for certain: The EU will not be impressed by this set of events.
The EU’s position on extension after extension for no apparent purpose other than more bickering was already hardening.
The Labour conference vote will seal the fate. The EU won’t go along with Corbyn’s proposal to negotiate a deal then hold a referendum on it.
Not only that, Corbyn will not even take a position on his own position. Let that sink in.
Eurointelligence Comments
The Tories will have their conference next week, and appear relatively united after they ditched the 21 rebels. They traded unity for the numerical loss of a majority. The polls have the Tories firmly ahead to varying degrees.
The main pressure towards elections could come from the European Council and especially from France. We noted a report in FAZ this morning that Amélie de Montchalin, the French state secretary in charge of Brexit, is hardening the French line on an extension. She said an extension would only be granted if accompanied by either elections or a second referendum – adding that the European Council was united on this point.
But we think the most likely first stage in the coming Brexit showdown will be another attempt to forge a deal. We hear a lot of negative press commentary, quoting the usual unnamed EU sources. But we don’t think that this issue is going to be settled by those sources.
Our main scenario is that a deal could be agreed or an extension granted until after an election in November or December – or both. We are becoming increasingly doubtful that Johnson is still actively pursuing a no-deal Brexit as his primary goal, but he is still leaving it open as a threat in case parliament both fails to agree both a withdrawal deal and elections.
A second referendum is highly unlikely and it would take a year or so. Would France wait that long?
I don’t think so.
What About Benn?
Recall that the emergency Benn legislation requires Johnson to send a letter to the EU requesting an extension until January 31, 2020.
Despite the fact the legislation gave Johnson the precise words to say in the letter, Benn is not airtight as I suggested all along.
I had been wondering if the UK could vote against its own extension request and today we have an answer.
Article 50 makes no mention of a formal letter. The British prime minister could [immediately] override his written letter with a verbal withdrawal and then state a different position. As a member of the European Council, he could force a formal vote and then cast a veto against his own written proposal. And even without such openly destructive behaviour, it is far from clear that the European Council would extend if the UK has not set a date for elections.
Most likely, the European Council will not formally veto an extension, but refuse to grant one until the conditions are met. It would thus ensure that the ball, and the blame, rests with the UK parliament. The Benn bill implicitly assumes the European Council to act as a binary automaton in a conspiracy with the UK parliament. We don’t think this is realistic.
Benn accomplished nothing.
There are only two ways to defeat No Deal.
- Revoke Article 50
- Agree to a Deal
There is no majority for revoking article 50. It is best to consider that option as dead.
Johnson is highly likely to come up with some sort of deal. It will not have a backstop.
Scenario 1: Accept the Deal or Leave
If Johnson does come up with a deal, this is what I expect.
- The EU will insist on “accept or leave”.
- The EU will grant no further extensions except for the explicit purpose of UK Commons voting on the bill then getting it passed in the House of Lords followed by Queens Assent (becoming law).
Scenario 2: Johnson Does Not Come Up With A deal
If Johnson and the EU cannot agree on a deal, the setup is harder to predict.
I suspect the EU would do what Eurointelligence suggests, demand a vote in November or December.
That outcome would put huge pressure on Labour. It would also unite the Brexit Party with the Tories and even some Labour voters who strongly back Leave.
However, there is risk for Johnson, too.
Johnson’s risk is that the Parliament Remainers vote Johnson out in a motion of No Confidence and request an extension.
That risk, however, is shrinking. Here’s why.
- Today’s Labour debacle confirms that Labour and the Liberal Democrats are hopelessly split.
- The Lib Dems and the SNP (Scottish National Party) are both staunch Remainers and would not likely back Corbyn in a motion of no confidence.
- Corbyn might insist he heads upo a caretaker government and it’s likely he does not have those votes.
- Even if they agreed to a caretaker government, there is no guarantee the EU would agree to an extension until January 31. As noted above the EU is likely to demand an election.
Johnson’s Choice
The above split firmly puts the clock back on Johnson’s side.
The EU has to understand that. They can see the polls too.
If the EU really wants a deal, it can have one. But it will have to meet Johnson’s minimal criteria, which at this point is unclear.
Otherwise, Johnson will roll the dice either believing the EU will demand elections or that Parliament will be so split they will not come up with a caretaker government.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
the EUSSR has ALREADY voted that we owe £17 BILLION for 2020
deal or no deal
they dont want us to leave
and the MPs and courts that collude with a foreign power against the people
are traitors
Now that Parliament is back in session (prorogue ruled illegal and at the same time the courts said the stupid gullible queen is a dupe of the Tories unable to figure out the political complexities of a prorogue) the EU is relieved, they are no longer under any pressure to conclude a fair Brexit deal, and they won’t. They can go back to manipulating sentiment against Brexit because they have the power to make sure it is a no deal Brexit. Prorogue had put them on the spot, now they are free of that.
The UK discord is to the EU’s advantage, they don’t have to “win” they only have to keep Johnson and the conservatives from winning.
The supreme court decision was BLATANTLY biased for the remainers, the only way forward now for Brexit is unity of all Brexiteers, Nigel Farage and the Tories, as well as the leave Labour faction, and all others who want the UK to get out of the EU. It is either they will all coalesce around Johnson to carry through a deal or no deal Brexit, or this matter is ended once and for all.
Michael Barnier has been saying that BJ was pretending to negotiate a deal, not in good faith, it has been the opposite all along, the UK decided to leave and the EU has exploited the remainer vote and internal politics since day one. All they have to do is not approve any deal, that leaves the UK with one prospect, a no deal leave and the EU punishment that would be meted out for the temerity to walk away from a really bad (for the UK) marriage. If the EU were in any way interested in fairness and democracy as they claim to be, they would have examined the reasons for UK discontent in the EU and taken steps to correct that. Instead they have been like an alcoholic old farmer that is shocked his mistreated cow will not stand for being milked by his old cold hands anymore. The farmer saying you will give your milk or I will turn you into mince.
Well with prorogation revoked I guess thats the end of Cumming’s and Johnson. I guess the Tory rebels will be back now and perhaps there will be a majority for a warmed over version of May’s deal. Or not.
We are clearly in a terrible situation in the UK. At least we now know that the Supreme court is rigged and Parliament is rigged against the people. The problem is what on earth do we do about it?
Complete speculation here, but maybe a reunited Tory party will push through May’s deal or a variation thereof before a Brexiteer backlash at the next GE can relegate the Tories to minor party status.
Other than that I’m utterly clueless. However some sort of detente between the Brexit party and the Tories would seem to be in order. You’ll have to have elections sooner or later.
“The EU’s position on extension after extension for no apparent purpose other than more bickering was already hardening.” – You have this completely wrong Mish. The EU wants to keep the UK as a tax farm by any means. It is quite happy to extend and extend, as it buys time and hopes that democracy in the UK can be completely overturned.
“She said an extension would only be granted if accompanied by either elections or a second referendum – adding that the European Council was united on this point.”
These conditions are not very difficult. The primary strategic objective of the EU (including France) is to prevent the exit of other members. There are several acceptable Brexit outcomes for this purpose but successful and happy Leave is not one of them. The final execution of remainers (“accept or leave”) would lead to exactly that.
The tricky vote of Labour just means that Corbyn wants to keep the party together. It would be much simpler to let it fall apart. Their position is the mirror of the Tories’, neither worse nor better.
The longer this goes on the more exposed the EU is as provocateur. The problem for the remainers and the EU is that they will be seen as working towards the same goal, overriding the will of the UK in the original referendum. This means that the EU is going to have to take a hard stance or appear to be working with (using) Labour.
And they have their own problems right now that mean they would actually love nothing more than to ditch the whole problem, yet, they are not willing to make a deal that works.
In the end there will be a deal, it will just be hated by everyone. The UK will leave this year, and nobody will be happy.
The UK is divided, Labour is divided.
A no-Deal Brexit will mark the entry point for far more divisions and polarization in the UK.
The UK voted to leave, that is fact, perhaps it would have been better if the vote had been lopsided like 74% to 26%, but it was not, still the leave vote carried and it is up to the rest to live with that result. This has dragged out for years and the remainers would be more than happy to drag it out years more, because the alternative is leave and they just will not face that. This is why the democrats in the US are suddenly such a threat, once they get their hands on that welfare check and direct unelected government by a central bank they would rather die than go back to a politically incorrect world where they have to take responsibility.
I expect AvidRemainer will be totally disgusted with this.
I agree. There should have been a vote.
This was rigged.
That said, we do not know what the vote would have been, only that it was close.
Well, I’m not disgusted at the antics, I go back a long way and remember when the National Union of Railway’s reps voted against the mandated will of the members and it was explained away by the concept of flexible voting.Par for the course for Labour politics. I don’t necessarily agree that Corbyn is a Wampum. Whatever happens someone has to reunite this country. If Farage and the liar win and we get a no deal brexit then this will incense 48% of the country. If Swinson wins then she will incense 52% of the country. Corbyn is the only person talking about uniting the country. Now I guess there will be lots of questions to the liar and Swinson like how do YOU propose to unite the country? I agree with Webej that whoever comes out on top has to make sure that the losers have had a fair crack of the whip or else all hell will be let loose. That said Corbyn’s position is odd to say the least. What proposals have the Brexiteers got to reconcile the country?
If someone can reunite the UK, you are doing far better than the US, which seems increasingly determined to tear itself apart, and no one on either side seems the least bit inclined to reconciliation in any form.
Corbyn had no choice, a full card count would have split Labour once and for all. That would have neutered the left and empowered the conservatives from this day on. He could not allow that. He also had other in house brush fires to put out; “Labour’s conference has been rocked by a series of rows, which kicked off on Friday night with a botched bid to abolish Tom Watson’s post of deputy leader.” Remember Watson is a staunch remainer.
Corbyn’s only hope is to get a general election by putting it to the voters that he will lead the UK to leave but only if they have a deal and that deal is once again put to referendum. Once they are elected they can do what they have been doing all along, work a bad deal and put that to the voters so it is rejected, the remainers will then have won and Labour in power. But, his own party is in total chaos. He expects to win when he can hardly keep his own party from slicing each other up?
You really have to hand it to the remainers, they are the single most dogged political force in 100 years anywhere. They are still in the minority and they lost the referendum, but goddamn they are just totally unwilling to give up aren’t they?
I do hope they suffer mass depression once the UK is no longer part of the EU, for at least as long as they have put the rest of the planet through their utter crap. And it may take 10 or 15 years for the UK to get back to where it is right now after the divorce, but, being married to the EU is a horrific mess, and now that they have attempted to leave there will be no crawling back to the EU as they were, they will be sleeping on the couch for a century if they do not manage to leave. Because that is the other side of the deal, the deal is not just the LEAVE Deal, it is what price will they now have to pay for putting the EU through all this if they are allowed to remain. The only thing certain is they will have less power and less benefit than they had before the referendum.
Sorry, I do not mean to hurt individual’s feeling here, but the EU is a toilet of error and evil to it’s core. Any “nation” run by a central banker is going to be. The only people that could want to belong to it are actually either stupid or greedy.
The question is, if the remainers get their way, what are they going to offer the Brexiteers? If remain does win — the feeling that they were robbed and disenfranchised by the political establishment is going to resonate with the Brexiteers for a long time to come.
They will offer them a new, written constitution with a proportional voting system. It would also stabilize their power.
How long will that take? will it be twisted to disenfranchise the Brexiteer electorate? How happy is the average Brexiteer going to be? They voted for an independent Britain not proportional voting or a written constitution.
Don’t get me wrong neither of those things are wrong but they don’t have anything to do with what the average Brexiteer voted for. If I was in the UK I would be asking for parliament to be stripped of its sovereignty and it be mandated that politicians reflect the wishes of their electorates. But pigs will fly first.
I agree that it won’t compensate Brexiteers but it may confuse them for a while. It would be quite a spectacle to see the two-party system destroyed. (Look at the party system in the Netherlands with proportional voting…) They could send Farage or someone like him into Westminster. They could also have their revenge on the institution of Speaker.
The catch with proportional voting is that coalitions govern. The Euroskeptic left is played against the Euroskeptic right continuously, and the centrist/elitist remainers are always is power.
It is speculation but I am afraid that the endgame will include something like this.
For the longest time I have believed that the first person to mention the Nazi party loses the argument. I therefore realise that I am taking a risk. In the dog days of the Weimar republic all the parties held on to their beliefs in a dogmatic and dangerous fashion. They were all responsible for destroying their society. The voters went to the extremes, the Nazi party went from under 3% of the vote in 1928 to 43% in the last free election. Now in no way do I compare any of the current political parties in the UK to the Nazis, but Weimar is instructive of what happens when the centre cannot hold.
Which begs the question, who is the centre these days.
Nobody, for different reasons. It shows that the parallel with Weimar Germany is actually fitting.
Not that the situation would be better anywhere else in Europe…
No Brexiteer wants any of that. We want to leave the EU, and keep our voting system that we use at GEs thank you.
Are you sure?
This is a 2016 article but proportional vote is still fine for Farage.
I see it like a card game with a lot of hidden aces up sleeves, but, the remainers are not going to offer anything to the Brexiteers, they are politically correct socialist welfare statists who because they are a minority and lost the referendum, (the shock on their fat faces was obvious when Brexit was announced to have won) have no other option but to ally with the EU and use tactics of delay and scorched Earth. Scorched Earth does allow for kissing up to the opposition in order to get their way, making sweet offers to the hardliners of the right. Instead the offers will be threats and they will amount to this; How harsh the Brexiteers treatment will be after the remainer win will depend on how long the winners of the referendum hold out.
It is not a deal the right can or should take. Johnson has that win in the referendum as his best ace up his sleeve, it is the overriding fact of Brexit. But, the remainers while outnumbered in the UK are not outnumbered in the EU. Their best ace is that they can keep up the scorched Earth longer than the right can fight them.
That is why I only became interested in Brexit after Johnson took power and promised that Brexit will happen October 31 come what may, it was the hope that this will finally be over on Halloween. November 1 the UK will be free of the EU or they will lose their sovereignty once and for all. If the UK has any savvy left it will realize that the terms by which it can remain in the EU will now be worse than the terms by which it would live if it takes even a no deal Brexit. And that is all the EU is going to allow. For a time a no deal Brexit would be harder but it is also temporary. If the remainers get their way their status within the EU will be permanently diminished.