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Let’s Discuss Climate Scare Heat Deaths, Should We Be Concerned?

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75 comments on Let’s Discuss Climate Scare Heat Deaths, Should We Be Concerned?

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It’s Hot!

Heat Wave Related Deaths 

End of Human Life

Heat Paradox

Rising temperatures save 166,000 lives.

For discussion and the complete study, please see Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study.

The study is not as cynical as the charts and Tweets make it seem. It concludes:

A substantial burden of mortality is attributable to non-optimal temperatures, which exhibits complex geographical and temporal patterns worldwide. Our findings call for decisive and coordinated action to raise public awareness of temperature as a health risk. The variation in regional and local mortality burden associated with non-optimal temperature warrants in-depth exploration to design adaptive strategies against both excess heat and cold that protect health.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

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Mike Shedlock

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75 Comments
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Pontius
Pontius
3 years ago
The climate of the earth is constantly changing. (See Medieval Warming Period/Little Ice Age). For almost all of its existence, Earth’s climate was not suitable for nurturing human civilization.
Yes, man’s activities materially affect the climate – effectively burning most of the earth’s depositories of fossil fuels in a relatively short period of time increasing temperature. What if this heating occurred during a organic heating cycle . . . cooling cycle?
I often ask climate change zealots: If earth had a thermostat, what is the optimum global temperature for human life on earth? Current temperature above or below the goldilocks temperature? No answer. Recent warming (prior to widespread use of fossil fuels) made more of the earth surface habitable?
Trending on Twitter this morning: “Could “dimming the sun” help turn down global heating?” Humanity needs some humility. We handled the pandemic so well, assume the same level of competence will be brought to bear on climate change.
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Anon1970
Anon1970
3 years ago
After the headings “Heat Wave Related Deaths”, “End of Human Life” and “Heat Paradox”, I am getting large empty spaces. Is anyone else having this problem?
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JRM
JRM
3 years ago
In my area in S OR, up to a few years ago it wasn’t uncommon to have atleast two weeks of triple digit temps, between June-Oct, it was like this back to the 80’s..
Three years ago we only had 3 days of triple digit temps from June-Oct..
Last year we had one day of triple digit..
In my area man made Global Warming is causing less extreme heat!!!
The earth goes through CYCLES!!!
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TheCaptain
TheCaptain
3 years ago
Reply to  JRM
Areas that have been hot in the past are cold now and vice-versa. Has anyone stopped to ask how the saudis ended up with so much oil? CLIMATE CHANGE.
Climate change is normal folks, and even if it wasn’t there isn’t one damned thing that government can do to change it, EXCEPT MAKE IT WORSE by trying to play god.
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prumbly
prumbly
3 years ago
The reality is that we are nearing the end of the current interglacial period. Next up will be a period of glaciation when the world gets really cold and sheets of ice scour the land across northern Europe and America. We should enjoy this little bit of warmth while it lasts.
The other thing worth bearing in mind with the recent heat wave is that it is hardly unprecedented. In the UK, there was a record temperature of 102F recorded in 1911. Of course, the climate wackos didn’t like this so they CHANGED THE HISTORICAL RECORD and reduced it to 98F.
Another trick the UK plays is that today the UK has over 200 weather stations whereas in 1911 it had fewer than 10. Then they take the highest temperature from these 200+ weather stations and compare it with the highest 1911 temperature found across <10. Since temperature is never entirely uniform, this gives them many more chances to find a higher local maximum today than in older records. The highest local maximum is what they then report in the media. The recent ‘record’ high was recorded in some remote village where there wasn’t a weather station in 1911.
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effendi
effendi
3 years ago
Once upon a time people in polite company never talked about politic, sex or religion. A benign conversation might start with “Nice weather we are having”
Today twats like St Greta and St Woke have ruined that with stupid end of planet bull.
Europe has a record number of old people, Europe has a record gas and energy price. I expect if a Europe wide cold snap hits mid winter there will be widespread blackouts and perhaps record deaths. That 6 to 1 ratio might become 60 to 1 as a few million octogenarians die in their unheated abodes across Europe.
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prumbly
prumbly
3 years ago
Reply to  effendi
The bizarre thing is that any new weather record now gets assigned to climate change – even record cold. And of course, climate change gets assigned to Man.
Since we only have about 100-150 years of weather data and the weather always does highly random things, we are BOUND to see frequent new records. In fact it would be weird if we didn’t.
It’s interesting to note how the record LOW temperatures in Antarctica in 2021 were reported (when they were reported – not much, as they don’t fit the narrative). CNN got a climate change expert to tell us:
“This regional variation is due to the influences of the oceans,
mountains, deserts, ice sheets, and other geographic features that all
affect our weather and climate. It’s also from changes in weather
patterns that are related to the position of the jet stream (storm
track), which can vary from day-to-day or even month-to-month.”
Funny how we never hear similar explanations for record HIGH temperatures!
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
When the records get set year after year, that IS climate change.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Christ. There are 365 days in a year, so 730 records for highs and lows. if you have 100 years of history, you would expect to break 7 records/year. Simple math.
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ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant
3 years ago
The Romans wrote about growing wine grapes in Britain in the first century, and then it got too cold during the Dark Ages. Ancient tax records show the Britons grew their own wine grapes in the 11th century, during the Medieval Warming, and then it got too cold during the Little Ice Age. It isn’t yet warm enough for wine grapes in today’s Britain. Wine grapes are among the most accurate and sensitive indicators of temperature and they are telling us about a cycle. They also indicate that today’s warming is not unprecedented
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
If it gets too hot, people will start building underground cities and will move there. Like a SF story.
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effendi
effendi
3 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Not SF. One of the hottest places on earth is Cooper Pedy. An Opal mining place in South Australia. Most people live underground and they often make money as they dig extra rooms by finding opals. 120 outside in the shade and their homes are pleasant year round
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Jwhite1986
Jwhite1986
3 years ago
We are seeing the lowest sunspot activity since the dalton minimum and projections are for another grand solar minimum. These low solar cycles produce extreme weather events thanks to large jet stream disruption. We also see increase in volcanic and seismic activity during minimums. The increased volcanic activity helps to cool the planet. We are currently seeing this in the southern hemisphere thanks to hunga tonga eruption earlier this year. For anyone to think humans can affect the climate of the planet clearly buy into the propaganda of the elites trying to further gain control of the masses. The biggest issue humans have on the planet is pure exploitation and mass poisoning. Just like in many cycles of the past the cosmos will correct are cancer like behavior and restore order.
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Humans breed fast… these deaths are a blip.
The crop failures will make a dent though…
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Greenmountain
Greenmountain
3 years ago
I think we loose sight of the big picture when we simply talk temperatures. Changing CO2 levels impact patterns over lots of things, jet stream – can result in really cold temps, gulf stream, sea salt levels. In a rural state like mine we can see long term change, start of sugar season. Sugaring still starts in the beginning of March, but today sugar bushes are ready to go anytime after first long freeze. Snow – nights are simply not as cold and that impacts snow and snow-making. Yes the culture of these things is only 200 years old – but multi-generational Vermonters now refer back to the days of ‘real winter’. Of course we can not blame climate change for every major weather event. Rather it is looking at trends – when does the ice melt on the local lake. We still have years when the melts do not occur until May. The difference is we have more and more years where it occurs in early April. More than in the last 150 years of keeping records. For me that is data.
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
“Should We Be Concerned?” Yes we should but nobody cares anymore so what’s the point. We can’t have a discussion about anything before people start twisting into politics. I’m sure this is how every empire in history has ended. I can imagine a Mayan Shaman telling the Mayan Chief that they are over fishing the river and deforesting too much land and the chief calling him a “bleeding liberal” and more “growth” in the population is needed to sustain the empire. And now there are no Mayans or Incas and soon there won’t be any Americans, just the peasant “leftovers” of any empire collapse. MIT suggest 2040 is the date for total collapse. I hope to be gone by then but technically should be alive.
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JRM
JRM
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
Talk about a HISTORIAN REVISIONIST!!!!
Mayans and Incas still exist to this day, don’t buy what you were taught in a LIBERAL History books!!!
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Anon1970
Anon1970
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
If I am still around in 2040, I will be over 90 and most likely will be living in an assisted living facility or in a nursing home.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Anon1970
I will be pushing my stolen shopping cart down the street on the way home to the cats.
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TheWindowCleaner
TheWindowCleaner
3 years ago
Climate change/global warming is a fact. There are plenty of factors that can momentarily impact your local comfort/survival, but if you’re not confronting the global problem…YOU are the one with the lack of objectivity/intellectual honesty problem. Wake TF up will ya?
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Before I even start, let me first say that I am not going to debate this topic. The debate is over. The science is clear. What we have to deal with now are the implications of global warming and climate change. And on a personal note, I want to know how to profit from it. Because I certainly can’t do anything about it. And I can’t be bothered to waste my time debating it.
Focusing on heat deaths is at best, a distraction. What you have to focus on are the big picture items: energy, food and water.
More frequent and/or intense heat waves, wildfires, drought, rainfall, floods etc are going to increase energy consumption, reduce energy production, and also reduce food production.
One of the consequences of global warming is that the world is presently attempting to transition from fossil fuels to renewables. And it isn’t going well. Energy demand is increasing faster than expected, renewables are not being built fast enough, and the fossil fuel industry has cut back on capex for the last decade, leading to a shortage of fossil fuels that will be with us for the rest of this decade.
This was explained in the comment section of this blog over two years ago and it is all happening just as it was explained. It was also explained that undervalued and under appreciated oil and gas stocks were going to be a great investment for the rest of this decade. That has also played out as stated here “so far”. And I expect it to continue to play out for the rest of this decade.
The good news is that you can still take advantage of this investment opportunity, whether you understand the science of global warming or not.
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billybobjr
billybobjr
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
The debate is over. The science is clear. Thanks for clearing everything up and settling this for all of us.
Declaring case closed from the Papa is all the people need to know, we will try and come up with other problems
so you can tell us how to think !
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  billybobjr
“Nuh-uh” is only a convincing argument to the one that utters it. Once you understand this, you’ll understand why people treat you as though you have a mental deficiency.
I don’t expect you to ever understand this, though.
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RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Dr. Marcia Angell, former editor-in-chief of the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) – “It is simply no longer possible to believe much of the clinical research that is published. I take no pleasure in this conclusion, which I reached slowly and reluctantly over my two decades as an editor of the New England Journal of Medicine.”
Just how corrupt is climate science?
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
Just how kooky are the deniers? It’s kookery all the way down.
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  billybobjr
The debate is never over in science. You know nothing, which probably means you are a “progressive” who flunked every science class you ever took.
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Billy
Billy
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
One thing I think we all can agree on is that the internet and computers consumes the most energy.
Maybe we should ban the government from using them?
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  Billy
Personally, I don’t give a f*ck what you think. I can’t be bothered to debate with cult morons.
All I care about is how to profit from what is happening in the world today. And that is global warming, climate change, the energy transition, food production and so on.
If you want to live in a fantasy world, I don’t care. If you want to ignore the investment advice I am suggesting, I don’t care.
Just don’t expect me to waste my time on you any more than I already have.
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FromBrussels2
FromBrussels2
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Investing in a scorched dessert with 8 bln on the brink of starvation…..nice perspective…..Good luck I d say ! Climate change is next to irreversible, geoengineering(are you invested? ) will make some disastrous desperate attempts to change things, the sun and declining magnetic fields though won t give a sh*t, I am afraid …..
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels2
Good for you. Be afraid. Do nothing but b*tch and complain about things you have no control over. Believe as much cult garbage as you want.
Myself, I am too busy living my life and making the best of it. And making as much money as I can on investments that are based on what is actually happening in the world today and going forward. You can’t profit from living in a fantasy world.
I see no way to make any money yet from geo-engineering ideas. The vast majority of them are going nowhere. However, you are free to invest in them and lose as much as you want.
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billybobjr
billybobjr
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Funny the top business and political leaders fly their planes and drive their limos to
these conferences and produce as much carbon as thousands of times more than average people do.
They could hold the conferences via video conference and set
the example for the people but they don’t . They flaunt it because they have and army of brainwashed
idiots that will believe their crap .
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  billybobjr
As I keep telling you. I don’t give a f*ck. I can’t change what they do and neither can you. All I can do is look after myself and my family and profit from the opportunities that exist. But in order to do that I can’t let myself get consumed by the garbage that you get into. You are wasting your time. This will be my last reply to you. I won’t waste anymore of my time on this. Have a nice life.
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effendi
effendi
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
I am investing in climate change. The science is settled and the earth has entered a cooling period so I’ve purchased a few properties in warmer areas that will not need as much heating.
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  effendi
Lol! Good for you! Good luck with that. I hear Jacobadad is a nice warm spot. Perhaps that’s one of the places? Make sure you pick really warm places.
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effendi
effendi
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Thanks, the science is never settled. There probably is some AGW going on but it is a blip compared to natural global warming/cooling.
But we can both agree that there is money to be made out of the perception that AGW is real and out of the perception that CO2 needs cutting by investments in green stuff ( be that sensible stuff or whacko stuff).
And yes I am being serious about buying property in warmer areas as I hate being cold.
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  effendi

There is money to be made from the energy transition. On that we can agree.

On everything else you said: not much agreement.
However, some agreement is better than none.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Your investment advice is typically much too general.
Please be more specific and help us out here.
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  Billy
Sorry. That comment was for BillyBobJr
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
The only thing settled as far as science is concerned is all things being equal rising greenhouse gas levels will warm the earths surface. Everything beyond that, including droughts, floods, etc… is not science. It’s a guess. And historically the guesses about future doom have been greatly exaggerated.
I can never have an honest scientific discussion about this with doomsayers because none of them understand how any of it works. They just say things like glaciers are shrinking and if we don’t act immediately we’re all doomed.
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
If you want to have an honest scientific discussion on global warming and climate change, go find some scientists who understand this issue inside and out. Though I highly doubt that they would want to debate with you. Just like they wouldn’t bother debating with people who believe the earth is flat or that we never landed on the moon. Its a total waste of time.
Now, if you want to discuss how to invest to take advantage of global warming and its implications, then I am interested. That is not a waste of my time.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
The ones who truly understand it are the software developers who have written the models. People like me. Problem is the models are only as good as the boundary conditions.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Finally.
Someone who understands the judgemental setting of parameter limits for the sets of complex differential equations necessary for all climate models.
It’s an art, not a science.
Wrong limits and the model blows up in microseconds, or three days.
These are very big models.
No one said diffeq was going to be easy.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
LMAO. I’d write more, but I am too busy taking advantage of human extinshun. I don’t even have to time to fix my spelling mistajkes. Gotta make money while I still can.
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Wow! Your light bulb turned on for a few seconds. I think you finally got it. Good for you.
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Pontius
Pontius
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Renewables require massive efficient energy storage devices to handle fluctuations in demand. Only part of the solution. Nuclear for base power, supplemented by renewables with natural gas/hydrogen to supply rapid surges of power. You can not get to where you want to go on renewables without nuclear. See Michael Schnellenberg TedTalk; Elon Musk.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Pontius
Wow. Now why didn’t anyone else think of that?
A New Englander’s retort on being asked for directions: “You can’t get there from here.”
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Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
3 years ago
When you have 8 billion creatures on a modest size planet, a good portion of those dumb as rocks, things will start falling apart.
Cheap throwaway culture, trash dumping, obesity pandemic, the-bigger-the-better, unlimited greed, procreation need, poisonous ideologies, the list goes on…
Do I need to add planetary warming?
Beam me up, Scotty!
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Maximus_Minimus
Thanks for the memory Max, I think the full quote was: “Beam me up Scotty. There’s no intelligent life down here.”
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RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
“Let’s Discuss Climate Scare Heat”
Let’s discuss Mass Formation psychosis. It is interesting that when Desmet became known, there was a media campaign to discredit him, just as there was against the Great Barrington Declaration authors and signatories.
Bernays and Goebbels. There is a non stop barrage of official climate change narrative. The current Yosemite fire is claimed to be caused by climate change. Climate doesn’t start fires. Dry lightning does, people careless with camp fires, broken power lines on a windy day- those cause fires. But Governor Newsom couldn’t wait to blame climate change. But look at how thick the Yosemite forest is with trees. After the fire had been burning for some time, the wind suddenly picked up and created a fire storm.
We are being played by people with an ulterior agenda. Who buys a home on the beach while proclaiming the beach is soon going to be under water? People who are lying to us.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
My car wouldn’t start this morning and I just know it was Climate Change.
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Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
3 years ago
Lol. This isn’t about human death. It’s telling the ecosystems of nonhuman life improve during covid shutdowns while humans supposedly suffered. Humans cannot handle even small changes I think these viruses are increasing going to percolate as the planet warms and eventually we will get a true mass die off. Also ahead is the scientist that predicted the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami is now predicting the plate off the coast of Sumatra is about to break and cause a tsunami 10 times worse than the 2004 event. That should wipe out a few million people and make several coasts uninhabitable.
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RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
Reply to  Casual_Observer2020
“Humans cannot handle even small changes”
Humans do not have fur and would naturally be confined to the near equatorial regions of the planet. Humans found a way to live where it would otherwise be too cold to live during the winter months.
Viruses have been around like forever, which is why we have the immune system we have. While not proven yet, it may well be that Covid-19 came out of a lab. It is also interesting that last year there was a public health simulation of a global Monkeypox outbreak in May, 2022 and now we have one in the real world as of May, 2022.
Viruses percolating is another alarmist climate change narrative. Covid-19 itself, was treatable early on, with anti viral drugs, as Dr. Zev Zelenko discovered. It was human intervention by public health agencies, that obstructed such treatment.
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Billy
Billy
3 years ago
If any country was serious about climate change they would require all manufactures of imported items to follow the same rules that are implemented in their own government. Lets take the pipeline for example. If the USA was so serious about climate change, wouldn’t we have the strictest environmental laws? Wouldn’t Canada have similar laws because they are just like us? So why would anyone think that people in 3rd world countries or Russia would treat our environment any better?
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RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
The current record high for Los Angeles on July 25, is 109 degrees, set in 1895, according to KTLA “News.”
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hamsaplo
hamsaplo
3 years ago
I live in Arizona now but went back to England a few summers ago to see how things were going. It was quite hot. Still no A/C’s. Children playing in public fountains but the old folks don’t even get any relief in malls. The climate change movement is poisonous to the real solution to overheating of human bodies. The debate sucks money and minds away from reality. Of course we can live in continuous 40+ degree heat. Arizona proves it. For what it’s worth, step 1 of the solution for England is cooled (and heated) public buildings where people without the resources to buy A/C’s can go to spend a few hours. Public library design should reflect this concept. Step 2 is development of an industry that finances and supplies A/C’s to vulnerable sections of the population. (The wealthy can pay for themselves.) A basic 5000 BTU unit costs $200 here and will cool a small English bedroom. And yes, the A/C will burn energy. Live with it. Step 3 is stop paying with public money for wars and the dreams of fools.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Pretty much the only people who die from excessive heat / cold are the very old or very young because their bodies can’t adapt to the temperature extremes.
Since the western world population is rapidly aging I would expect there to be increased deaths from both excessive cold and heat. That has less to do with climate change and more to do with aging population and modern medicine that allows the population to reach those age levels.
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Karlmarx
Karlmarx
3 years ago
Climate change is like any cult. Create something that is unexplainable and based solely on faith and get people to follow it.
For Gaia’s sake, we should be ecstatic about warmer temperatures, the earth is usually in an ice age. Interglacial periods are short
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Karlmarx
Actually the opposite is true. It’s rare for ice to be at the poles. We’re still emerging from an ice age.
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Karlmarx
Karlmarx
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
That is true, the temperatures during this interglacial period have not reached anything near the highs of other interglacials. Thus no dinosaurs and no giant bugs. Kind of happy about that myself.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  Karlmarx
I’m not sure where the ‘usually in an ice age’ comes from? Now, if you said that the Earth is a dying planet, given the extreme loss of vegetation that used to cover the planet (replaced by deserts and frozen wastelands)… caused by the long term reduction in CO2 (accumulated in oil and coal deposits)
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dwkeller
dwkeller
3 years ago
And in New Zealand there is “too” much snow. Parts of Australia is cold and snowy. Argentina had its coldest recorded June. Et al.
To understand the planet you need to look at it all, not just part of it.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  dwkeller
You don’t get it. When it’s cold, that’s weather. When it’s hot, that’s climate.
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RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
Reply to  dwkeller
“Sat October 9, 2021
(CNN) In a year of extreme heat, Antarctica’s last six months were the coldest on record.
“For
the polar darkness period, from April through September, the average
temperature was -60.9 degrees Celsius (-77.6 degrees Fahrenheit), a
record for those months,” the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
said.”
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  dwkeller
Yes, strange things are indeed happening. I see reports of the magnetic pole shifting faster than usual, and increased volcanic activity; however, let’s not mention such things because it is doubtful that humans are causing them…
Global Climate Change is the science of political convenience.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
All psychological poopaganda. ‘Hot’ has a bad reputation… Hell is hot for a reason.
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billybobjr
billybobjr
3 years ago
The global warming thing is mostly all propaganda . It is all about money . Heatwaves used to take out
many people back in the days before AC but not much anymore . Before satellites any info on temp is suspect
accuracy . It is hot outside right now but it is summer and it is always hot and humid in the northern hemisphere.
As landfills are filling up with toxic solar panels that are expiring after gov subsidies kicked started them in early 2000
and windmill blades coming to a end of their life and need to be transported and disposed of . Weather has to be
used for politics to scare the people the media is on board . Fires , Hurricanes bad weather blamed on global warming
changed to climate change so even if it turns cool we can still blame it . Yet we have had these things for billion plus years
before man even showed up in the equation and earth has been warmer many times than it is currently with no input from man
if you are to believe science . The people pushing this continue to be by far the highest carbon polluters see Al Gore ,
so if they don’t see the need for urgency then I guess the people should be skeptical of anything they push . Every prediction
they have made has turned to be false. Politics have hijacked science and now no one trust the government backed
grants to science producing institutions to give them the info they demand . They have been caught distorting data
and changing numbers ect to get the results the government wants .
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  billybobjr
As you note, it is not all ‘propaganda.’ We are definitely seeing variation from the norm, with occasional outliers from the underlying WEATHER distribution. Is it enough to say the underlying distribution (aka climate) has changed? Because that is the statistical basis for a GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE hypothesis. Note: for a global warming hypothesis is it enough to have a statistically different ‘global’ mean temperature (over time)?
Now, some variation can be attributed to the 11-year solar cycle–usually overlooked, yet a well-known phenomenon in the Farmer’s Almanac (see a chart here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#/media/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png). Curiously, when Gorian scientists picked up the global warming hypothesis, Russian scientists were quick to respond with ‘look at the solar influence’. (Note: in addition to the 11-year solar cycle, there is a longer, less-stable cycle of some 400-add years.) This explanation, of course, was denied by the ever-knowledgeable West. What the Russians understood is what the IPCC still ‘denies’–it doesn’t fit the progressive political agenda.
RULE #1 Politicize anything and critical thinking stops on both sides.
That said, we are far from having a reliable and comprehensive model of the Earth’s climate, yet Gorian scientists continue to claim their models are valid–since they substantiate their underlying hypothesis.
RULE $2 You always find what you are looking for.
But what about the anomalies?
For example, hurricanes (which are a subject of personal interest since I live on my boat) in recent data have increased by about one per year, which might be solar-cycle influenced, or random, or part of a human-induced climate-change pattern. Are hurricanes getting stronger? Following different tracks?
Here are the historical tracks of hurricanes. I see a few patterns among a vast number of random ‘walks’ (all weather driven): https://www.bwsailing.com/cc/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/hht.jpg.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
I don’t doubt human activity is warming the planet. I think it’s also preventing us from moving towards another ice age. But, we haven’t been collecting weather data long enough to know what normal is. Anything more than say 200 years ago is based off looking at things like ice cores and tree rings, which is useful, but it’s not a precise way to determine past weather.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
This has been a problem ever since the Government secretly confiscated Mr. Peabody’s Wayback machine and hid it in Area 51.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Every time a weather record is broken or there’s bad weather anywhere in the world, there are always proclamations that climate change is causing it. As if, there was never any bad weather before the industrial revolution. And this is called science. These are from people who have no understanding of thermodynamics and have no clue how global warming works. They just blindly repeat what they’re told.
The latest example are California wildfires. California has a climate where much of the state goes without rain for 6 months. No matter how hot it is, everything dead will become extremely flammable. An extra degree of warming won’t matter. And the biggest determinant to how bad a fire season they’ll have is how much rain they received during the previous wet winter season. The more rain, the more vegetative growth, which produces more dead plant material. Yet, the so called science experts claim the opposite. According to them, drought conditions brought about by climate change have caused the fires to be worse.
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Karlmarx
Karlmarx
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
I grew up in Colorado. Same is true there. Have always been fires. Problem is that people have built towns in places where fire can spread rapidly – oh yeah, and they don’t have sufficient water resources. So fires are more deadly and dangerous, but not because of the weather
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
I beg to differ with “An extra degree of warming won’t matter.” In economics, as in most things, at the margin, an ‘extra’ whatever matters.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Dead grass will be just as flammable after being dead for 6 months with no rain if exposed to an average temp of 80F as it would be if exposed to an average temp of 81F. I really can’t explain it any simpler than this. If you don’t get it, you’ll never understand.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Sadly, you missed my point of things ‘at the margin’. Let’s use your example. The temperature goes up by one degree–a little more grass dies (than at 80 deg), and is little bit drier. The chance of a fire goes up slightly, and it is likely to be slightly worse if it happens.
Everything is affected at the margin, for better or worse. For example, there is not some ultimate temperature that the prairie catches on fire. As the temperature increases, the chance of a fire increases, and the damage is greater.
Applied to finance/economics, understanding what happens with a marginal change (either increase or decrease) is key. Do enough risk analysis and it all comes down to impact and probability. The classic is Taleb’s Black Swan… a high impact, low probability ‘event’.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
No. That’s like saying ice will melt more at 3F than 2F. It will melt equally as much at both temperatures.
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