Before discussing the results, it’s important to note that Australia’s “Liberal” party would be deemed as conservative in the US.
With that fact out of the way, Liberal Scott Morrison was reelected despite all polls suggesting otherwise, for two straight years.
Please consider Election 2019: How the Polls Got it so Wrong in Predicting a Labor Victory.
Nearly all polls predicted Bill Shorten would have an easy win with a 51:49 lead over Prime Minister Scott Morrison on a two-party preferred basis. In fact, for two years the polls had picked the Opposition to take government.
Instead it was a shock loss for Labor which was hit by a blue sweep through Queensland, less than desirable results in Victoria and a return to the status quo in Western Australia.
Former Newspoll boss Martin O’Shannessy blamed the flawed forecasting on the fact that many people’s telephone habits have changed.
ABC election analyst Antony Green agreed the sampling used to be much more reliable. “They switched from an operator asking questions to randomly calling mobile numbers and robocalls,” he said.
Psychic Croc Gets It Wrong Too
Social Media Expert Picked Trump, Brexit, Morrison Correctly
Data mining expert from Griffith University Professor Bela Stantic, who predicted Donald Trump’s election to US presidency and Brexit, uses his own methods to gauge opinion.
Through his own independent research, Professor Stantic analysed 2 million social media comments relating to key terms and predicted Labor would not pick up the key seats needed.
What Happened to Climate Change?
Also consider Election 2019: What Happened to the Climate Change Vote We Heard About?
It was supposed to be the big issue of the 2019 Australian federal election: climate change. A range of polls and surveys had left many analysts, myself included, with the sense that this would be a crucial issue at the ballot box.
The annual Lowy Institute Poll demonstrated stronger support for climate change action in Australia in 2019 than in any previous survey since 2006.
But in the end, we saw a decline in the primary vote for the Labor Opposition, who had announced a more significant reduction target than the Government and a suite of measures — from investment in renewable energy to an energy guarantee — to get there. More consequentially, of course, we saw the re-election of a Government with limited ambition on emissions reductions.
It’s the Economy, Stupid
The article notes some victories by the Greens but not enough to overcome quality of life and job concerns.
In Queensland, constituents view large scale mining operations as a crucial potential source of income and employment.
In this election, Australians were suddenly faced with a prospective Labor Government ready with a suite of measures to tackle climate change. And they were presented with an account of these measures as a devastating economic blow to Australian prosperity and growth.
Climate Change Battle
The Global Warming Policy Forum has some interesting quotes in AFTER ANOTHER DEFEAT, CLIMATE POLICY THREATENS TO DEVOUR LEFT PARTIES.
- We have lost Australia for now,” warned Penn State climatologist Michael Mann in an email. “A coalition of a small number of bad actors now threaten the survivability of our species,” he said. –Joe (the-end-is-nigh) Romm, Sink Progress, 18 May 2019
- Scott Morrison’s ‘miracle’ election win has been cheered by US conservatives and compared to Donald Trump’s surprise 2016 presidential win. The Liberal campaign had emphasised the cost of Labor’s climate change policies – which included reducing carbon emissions by 45 per cent by 2030. And while Labor campaigned against the controversial Adani mine, the Coalition focused on the jobs boost of the new development. On Saturday night, former Australian Prime Minister John Howard said Labor’s stance on climate had cost them the election. —Daily Mail, 19 May 2019
- The coalition successfully made cost the dominant issue in the climate change debate. Climate change may be the first battle in the long war that is reshaping democracy all over the world. —The New York Times, 19 May 2019
- For Labor, this is an untrammelled disaster. Climate policy too will need to be re-examined. Climate change destroyed Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard’s prime ministerships; it has now contributed to Bill Shorten’s destruction too. Voters accept the science and they tell pollsters they want something done. But whenever conservatives frame climate policy as a threat to voters’ livelihoods, they win. –Ben Eltham, New Mathilda, 19 May 2019
The End is Nigh
Mercy me. The end is nigh. The survivability of man is in question says Penn State climatologist Michael Mann.
And of course AOC says, among other things, we only have 12 years to live.
- AOC “New Green Deal” Stunningly Absurd: Far More Ridiculous Than Expected
- AOC’s Green New Deal Pricetag of $51 to $93 Trillion vs. Cost of Doing Nothing
- Hilarious Video of 8-Year-Old Imitating and Mocking AOC
Number 3 is priceless. Here is the video in a Tweet.
OMG 😯 An AOC mini-me! She nails it! #Priceless pic.twitter.com/CAfV8Da5d3
— Todd With Trump (@THeinrich22) April 20, 2019
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp which owns 73% of Aussie news media played a big part in the LNP victory – Many LNP voters want action on climate change – it is the biggest issue for the majority of Australians.
When did a poll at 51-49, probably with margin of error of 3 or 4 points, indicate an easy win? Seems like a perfectly reasonable result to me.
Penn State climatologist Michael Mann: “A coalition of a small number of bad actors now threaten the survivability of our species”.
Correct, and those are all the s***holes with out of control population growth. Next to Australia is Indonesia, home to once most pristine coral reefs, now a plastic dumping ground. These pseudo eco-greens are a stain on the environmentalism when they fail to even mention the true culprit.
Polls have been unreliable for a long while now.
Global cooling will be a better sell. It will just take about 10 years and then we can cycle back to the 1970’s version and worry over the “coming ice age”.
We need to give up freedom now as the end is always near!!
Then we’ll have “activists” in steam engined, coal powered cars, accusing yuppie Tesla drivers of killing Eskimos by freezing them to death…
The real question now is who’s PAYING THE MEDIA and campaigns of these Libacrites ?5too much for coincidence now 🙁
“Before discussing the results, it’s important to note that Australia’s “Liberal” party would be deemed as conservative in the US.”
“…and downright fascists by the MSM.”
Global warming is real and we need to keep an eye on it. But in terms of threats to our survival, it doesn’t even crack the top 100. The politicians have usurped it and have no idea what they’re talking about. They’re scientifically illiterate. And it shows whenever they make dire predictions that don’t materialize.
Climate recycling is real. So called Global warming is just part of that natural cycle. Humans are responsible for less than 2% of the carbon dioxide cycle. Carbon Dioxide is a trace gas.
Pollution is the problem not climate.
Every single living thing on the planet is ingesting an ever increasing amount of microbes of plastic. This is a terrible issue.
Banning plastic bags is not a solution either. Nearly everything we have around us is made of plastic
The ecology movement “won” to the extent that everybody lifts a finger to recycle now. But environmentalism hasn’t risen to be principal cultural value. Some loudmouths and brainwashed students talk about it, and it is especially easy to talk about what other people should do. But individuals looking at their own lives care far more about: their cash flow, their kids, and their health. Very few people will, in the voting booth, seriously consider sacrificing the quality of their own lives to trees and polar bears.
I recycle pocket change. That is all.
Ther’s a huge difference between the “ecology” movement in general, and the “climate change” clown show.
The former has had a huge, and positive impact on reducing genuinely toxic emissions into air, water and ground from industry, farming, vehicles etc.; on building material offgassing, food container contamination, waste biodegradability, etc., etc… Without those advances, production on the scale we have today, would have made the world, at least in populated regions, a very unpleasant place to live.
While the “climate change” yahoos, OTOH, is more like their fellow travelers (heck, it’s often the same people) in the “raciiiism” screeching choir: The important battles their forefathers fought for, have been won. But since those fighting those battles to victory has been so lauded and glorified by popular culture, there’s plenty of young hotheads more concerned about continued the fight for the fighting’s sake, than because there is much left to fight for anymore. So, in true progressive fashion, they keep inventing ever more farfetched hobgoblins, that they can then use to prop themselves up as some form of heroes, for fighting. You see the same dynamic all over Africa (and to a lesser extent Latin America), with hotheads still “fighting” against the “colonial oppressors,” by running around mindlessly hacking each other up for no meaningful purpose at all.
Compare northern NJ of the seventies to northern NJ of today. Where did that rotten cabbage smell go? Where is the thick yellow haze? Things are so much cleaner today.
It’s a mistake to credit the ecology movement with improving conditions for humans. These are the people who banned DDT over a few bird eggs, and want to ban fossil fuels and GMO’s and everything Monsanto does. Reducing pollution to improve the quality of human life is rational and practical, which is why it has been popular. That’s not what the ecology movement has ever been after, they want a planet without any human effects whatsoever.
” Reducing pollution to improve the quality of human life is rational and practical, which is why it has been popular.”
Before it becomes widely popular, someone has to be sufficiently interested in it, to put it on the agenda. Clean air is not something there exists an obvious way to sell to identifiable customers in exchange for money.
Even during the peak smog period in Los Angeles, most people just sucked it up and got by as best they could. It was left to above average “ecology” mindeds, mainly academics in the beginning, to both focus on what smog was, where it came from, how it affected people and other life, and what could be done about it efficiently. It’s the same story wrt mining, oil extraction, general combustion cleanliness, spent nuclear fuel storage etc.
While certainly true that things which simply aren’t practical wont be done regardless, even things which ultimately turn out to be practical, still need someone to bother looking into them, and working out difficulties, in the first place.
Even China is now starting to clean their environment up. Bad air is good for no one. The general population can see for themselves the pollution and ground swell pressure forces the governments to do something about it. No different to Europe pre 1960’s.
Clean air is no different from any other economic good: As people get richer, they can afford more of it. The Chinese aren’t any different. When they were on the verge of starvation, they accepted some coal dust in the air and toxins in the water, in exchange for food and shelter. No they don’t need to.
This was Australia’s first test flight of the global warming rocket into a struggling economic environment. It exploded on the pad.
To be fair.
There is a proposed coal mine in Queensland. The Greens and Labor wanted to ban it. This put Labor on the nose in Queensland.
The mine is in areas with substantial unemployment.
The general population is fed up with ever increasing energy prices. Prices caused by investment in “so called renewables”. – A green policy.
Labor state governments have closed 4 major coal fired power stations. In the case of South Australia, all coal stations. Every man in the street can see that black outs and brown outs are in the near distant future.
One thing Mish hasn’t mentioned is the “Boats”.
Under the last Labor government, tens of thousands of economic opportunistic so called refugees flooded into Australia by boat from the North. The Liberal conservative government stopped the flow, earning the wrath of the U.N. and the socialist left.
The Liberals went so far as to leave the U.N. refugee program.
The general Australian population Doesn’t want a return of the “Boats”. The fear was that an incoming Labor government would have opened the flood gates again.
Next.
The great Australian Housing Bubble which all “vested RE interests” deny exists.
Labor threatened to introduce programs which would have the potential to lower house prices further.
There are a lot of ordinary Australians who are going to be hit hard by more price decreases. 20% of mortgages are already under water. (negative equity). Other Australians have RE investments which had the potential under Labor’s new policy of causing some financial hardship.
Labor’s ridiculously policy of turning the Australian energy into 50% renewable in 11 years.
Another – mandating electric vehicles only in 11 years. Australia is highly vehicle dependent – ain’t going to happen.
Every democrat candidate has endorced man-made gloBull warming, which by itself makes Trump’s chances very good for reelection. The fact that it is still snowing in the lower 48, and the summer is looking to be a short one, is further indication the cooling cycle, which began in 1999, is going to be a bad one (i.e. crop failures, malnutrition, plagues, wars, etc.).