Update: The Nikkei has the biggest 2-day drop in history. Bitcoin is down 7% today and 23 percent in the last week. 18-year high margin positions hitting everything but gold.
Record Margin Positions
Bloomberg reports Forced Margin Selling Seen Exacerbating Japan Market Rout
The swift downturn in the Japanese stock market likely triggered a massive wave of forced selling among retail investors, deepening the rout.
The Topix index plunged more than 7% with companies such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial diving more than 15%. The scale of selloff is such that some market players think individual investors are now being forced to dump stocks they had bought on margin.
Retail investors’ margin buying position rose to a 18-year high in late July even as the Nikkei slipped from its historic peak. Investors who have bought stocks using credit are often forced to close their positions when stock prices fall more than expected, unless they have enough extra cash for collateral to deploy.
Hopes around higher wages and economic growth have encouraged Japanese investors to buy stocks. The trend was strengthened by new tax-free investment accounts that the government started this year. With the Nikkei 225 on the verge of wiping out almost all of its gains since the start of year, the bear market will test the durability of Japanese individual investors’ renewed appetite for domestic stocks.
Bitcoin Plunges
Bitcoin is down 7 percent on the day and 23.4 percent in the past week.
Stocks Routed by US Recession Risk
Reuters reports Stocks Routed by US Recession Risk, Bonds Eye Rapid Rate Cuts
Japan’s Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab shed an eye-watering 8.0% to hit seven-month lows, marking its biggest three-session loss since the 2011 financial crisis. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab lost 2.8%.
Japanese 10-year bond yields fell a steep 17 basis points to the lowest since April at 0.785%, as markets radically reconsidered the prospect of another hike from the Bank of Japan.
Treasury bonds were in demand with 10-year yields hitting 3.723%, the lowest since mid-2023. Two-year yields dropped to 3.818%, having already fallen 50 basis points last week , and could soon slide below 10-year yields, turning the curve positive in a way that has heralded recessions in the past.
The worryingly weak July payrolls report saw markets price in a near 70% chance the Federal Reserve will not only cut rates in September, but ease by a full 50 basis points. Futures imply 115 basis points of cuts in the 5.25-5.5% funds rate this year, and see rates around 3.0% by the end of 2025.
“We have increased our 12-month recession odds by 10pp to 25%,” said analysts at Goldman Sachs in a note, though they thought the danger was limited by the sheer scope the Fed had to ease policy. Goldman now expects quarter-point cuts in September, November, and December.
“The premise of our forecast is that job growth will recover in August and the FOMC will judge 25bp cuts a sufficient response to any downside risks,” they added. “If we are wrong and the August employment report is as weak as the July report, then a 50bp cut would be likely in September.”
Analysts at JPMorgan were even more bearish, subscribing a 50% probability to a U.S. recession. “Now that the Fed looks to be materially behind the curve, we expect a 50bp cut at the September meeting, followed by another 50bp cut in November,” said economist Michael Feroli.
In commodity markets, gold gained a safety bid and rose to $2,456 an ounce.
Are the “Magnificent 7” Stocks Today’s Version of the “Nifty Fifty”?
Earlier today I asked Are the “Magnificent 7” Stocks Today’s Version of the “Nifty Fifty”?
The “Magnificent 7” are TSLA, AAPL, META, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA. Buy and hold forever?
Dramatic 1-Day and 1-Week Changes in Bond Yields
For discussion, please see my August 3 post Dramatic 1-Day and 1-Week Changes in Bond Yields, What Happened?
Are too many cuts priced in or not enough?
That’s the question. I expect two cuts in September. Looking out to next year, I think too many cuts are priced in.
Rate Cuts Coming
Also on August 3, I commented Big Changes in Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations This Year and Next
Rate Expectation Percentage Point Change
- Sep 2024: -0.13 PP to 4.94% (-0.43 PP from current) 1.7 quarter-point cuts
- Nov 2024: -0.30 PP to 4.53% (-0.83 PP from current) 3.3 quarter-point cuts
- Dec 2024: -0.34 PP to 4.21% (-1.16 PP from current) 4.6 quarter-point cuts
- Jan 2025: -0.36 PP to 3.98% (-1.39 PP from current) 5.6 quarter-point cuts
- Mar 2025: -0.38 PP to 3.71% (-1.66 PP from current) 6.6 quarter-point cuts
Recession Has Started
On July 8, I wrote Weak Data Says a Recession Has Already Started, Let’s Now Discuss When
I’ve seen enough. A recession has started. Let’s discuss starting with a very good indicator that has few false positives and no false negatives.
My follow-up post was on August 2.
August 2: The McKelvey (Sahm) Unemployment Rate Recession Rule Just Triggered
A recession indicator based off rising unemployment triggered in July. Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, takes credit for an indicator she did not invent. Let’s discuss.
Weakening data explains the recession call. Yield curve action provides a confirmation signal.
Global selloffs add to recession risks. Sentiment matters.
Keep in mind that much of the stock market declines during 2000-02, 2007-09 and 2020 were accompanied by a rate-cutting spree by the Fed. Anyone who is thinking that the Fed’s interest rate-cuts can somehow save this enormously overvalued stock market, should consider that fact.
having sold my last stock back in 2002
I sleep well every nite, my assets, which I control, have no issues
lots of work to do and maybe this will soften up some NEW ASSETS I’m consideriing
If you stand back and look at the world’s individual countries’ stock markets what did you see today? The start of a global crash or a minor hiccup of stocks to a US market with the jitters? Note that it started in Japan on Friday. Japan was low-hanging fruit thanks to years of Abenomics. The US is not far behind after years of Fed f*(kery and a mind-numbing debt. It was just a matter of time, and if we aren’t there yet, we will be eventually.
I get it now the Democrat string pullers saw the same things you did weeks ago, Mish.
They knew if the markets crashed and the resession began before the election Biden could not win. So they threw him under the bus so they could blame him and let Harris win on the other issues like guns and abortions. Trump is in real trouble now.
I don’t think they are capable of that kind of 4d chess. They dumped him simply because he had absolutely no path to 270 and was losing ground by the day. What you mentioned is just an added benefit, and it’s actually terrifying because it’s a decent strategy…to blame Biden and (easily) convince the mouth breathers that Kamala wouldn’t have let it happen if only her hands were on the wheel (as if her policies would have been any different). Of course, we know that the cycle will do what it has to do with Trump in office as well (but I’d rather have Trumps crazy cures than Kamala’s crazy cures).
eggo frozen waffles will save us! (we are so fd) Kellogg spin-off Kellanova , the maker of Eggo frozen waffles, Pringles and Pop-Tarts, soared nearly 15% following a Wall Street Journal report indicating that candy giant Mars may be looking to buy it. Tyson Foods was higher too while other food stocks, such as Campbell Soup, Mondelez, and General Mills were a bit lower. https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/safe-havens-cash-gold-utilities-864277fb
Already sold VRN for a 5% gain and SU for a 3% gain. Love this volatility.
that’s day trading. a day like today is not a day to buy for long term holds which is what you were implying earlier when you rattled off all the ‘bargains’ you were buying.
Your interpretation was incorrect. Pay attention.
I always day trade a portion of my portfolio. I have mentioned that over and over again. I will gladly take a 5% gain in a few hours. It would be stupid not to.
Having said that, I have no qualms about buying bargains today and holding them longer term as well. I suspect that will happen with some of my other purchases today.
How are you doing today?
PapaDave is a speculator not an “investor.”
And a damn successful one too.
I like to think that I am both.I have held many stocks for many years, but that doesn’t mean I can’t day trade portions of them as well.
SU is a good example. What I bought and sold today was roughly 10% of my total SU position.
According to him. Most people bragging about day trading games are lying.
Sold CVE for a 3% gain as well.
So the market is only up about 12%YTD at this point… cry me a river.
Check back in a week
No way it’s unwinding now. There are way too many eager bears and I fear there needs to be a lot of roasted bear meat on the table before they let her rip for real. MISH says there’s no “they”, but I think there are still enough optimistic buy the dippers to make this into a nothing burger for a while longer. Closer to the election maybe it crumbles. 2025, it has to come down hard. There’s too many defaults and bad debts to keep ignoring.
The Ponzi is always profitable, until it’s not.
The financial markets are now dominated by the amount of central bank credit creation and have been since Greenspan. During economic downturns, the money spigots open.
I’m wondering if this is a middle east war scare.
This is a pre-open-the-spigots scare before the voting.
Quick, quick, we have to save Wall Street so the pigs can keep feeding at the Fed trough. Forget they have been gorging on a massive wealth transfer from savers to borrowers since 2010, and that people have been forced into risky assets to get a return greater than zero–all to the benefit of Wall Street.
Maybe after this crash investors will learn the meaning of risk-return tradeoff, and price assets accordingly, and will NOT accept negative real rates.
Wharton’s Jeremey Siegel is calling for an emergency rate cut. When inflation was ramping toward 9% did he call for an emergency rate hike? In January 2001, Greenspan did an emergency rate cut and it didn’t prevent the Nasdaq from falling 76%, or the 2001 recession. Armstrong says the ECM cycle into 2028 is a recessionary period.
Jeremey Siegel: when all out fails, beg for the bailout. I check in to Armstrong pretty often. Whether its war or financials, 2028 will never come, things are moving way too fast.
Googl BB : Apr 26/30, 174.31/162.60. Googl closed the gap, moving up into BB.
Trump is already calling it the Kamala Crash.
Trump is an idiot. He is as much a cause of this as Obama and Biden. It begins with deficit spending to prop up a faux economy year after year.
He’s been out of office for 3 1/2 years. This is happening on Biden/Harris’ watch.
I can make a case that what is about to happen to the US economy is partially a function of the US Federal debt, and how it is *funded*.
In 2016, Trump railed against the US debt, yet did nothing about it. I hold him accountable for HIS share, just as Clinton, Obama, and Biden must be held accountable.
To see the amount added by each president to the total debt at the time, and as a % increase at that time see below link. Ideally, the analysis would be in constant dollars.
https://www.investopedia.com/us-debt-by-president-dollar-and-percentage-7371225
Obama: 64.4% over 8 years
Trump 33.1% over 4 years
Biden 8.8 % (so far)
Nothing is gained by dishonesty,
Trump is a lot of things but sure ain’t to blame for this mess. Trump did do some things right during his presidency, Kamala-Biden none at all. Those two clowns made every problem we had worse, and to boot those two created new problems.
Wonderful! Is this the final collapse of the house of cards? That would be like Christmas come early. Unfortunately, they’ll probably just find another way to extend and pretend,
Bitcoin has shown itself as the Ponzi scheme that it is, yet again. Gold hasn’t come out shining either.
In a world where funny money has found its way into absolutely everything, there is no refuge.
Not wonderful. If I am right this will be devastating to banks, savings, 401 etc plans, pensions, real estate prices, etc
Doubly wonderful! It’s the cleaning out of excess that we desperately need. Question is, will they let it happen? Chances are slim, but we can hope.
I agree that flushing the crap from the economic toilet is crucial. It should not have been allowed to happen in the first place, and now, it cannot happen without a great deal of pain. The question is whether we learn from the mistake. Frankly, I doubt it.
However, one thing is clear to me. Neither of the two candidates are capable of doing what is needed. That people voted for someone who already had dementia, and a lackluster career in the Senate, sickens me as much as the media bias that stole the election from Trump:
Sadly, we get the government we deserve.
what are these things called stocks
oh, the executives only club
so sorry, but I need to own minimum 51% company/asset
Curious. Who else is buying today? And what? How about the gold bugs and crypto hodlers?
Bought first entry level amount Cad against Euro waiting on Iran to thoroughly screw up Mid east Oil.
Iran says they want to hurt West and Israel. They can have an impact via energy markets.
Cad has been weak for some time. Europe going into recession so ECB will not be tightening.
Iran may well just opt to go face to face militarily. However they are positioned to do a number on Sea Transport from that region.
Since Iran Regime does not seem suicidal which a direct military confrontation would entail, an expansion of what Houthis have been up to seems appropriate.
Oh, and guess what will happen to treading on pins and needles stock market if Oil goes high.
Thanks for replying!
Still am remaining the Bear on it all but that is where this mind of mine is taking me.
We all get it right sometimes and wrong at times.
OIl will likely take a hit as recession slows demand. Buying opportunities lie in the future. If if gets really bad, I expect oil at $25 (eg Covid)
I’m thinking that this might be a middle east war scare which central bank credit creation won’t be able to hide.
People still believe Iran is a paper tiger.
As the West has been beyond foolish it has allowed itself to be in a place where sinking a couple of ships in a major shipping channel will cause chaos in energy markets.
Iran is in a place they can use that for purpose of Financial hurt to Western markets.
Gold and Bitcoin are holds for me. Silver, I got stopped out a few weeks back… for a profit. Bitcoin I bought years ago, but only hold free shares now.
Thanks. Are you buying anything today?
Bitcoin is an awful ‘hold.’ It is fundamentally a lottery ticket. Pure speculation with limited use, and no residual value. It now depends on bigger fools.
Flingel,
I agree, Bitcoin is very speculative. My plan years ago was to buy it under $10k when nobody was interested. Then I would sit on it for while until it ripped and then sell my initial investment in it.
That’s exactly what I did. Now I have free shares and if I am lucking enough for it to head to $100k+, I’ll take some off as profit.
The other way to play it is to trade it. In that case, my style would be to wait until it gets back above the 10-week MA line.
Gold is sold to cover the shorts. Gold is the safe haven. Those with it will be okay IMHO.
Crypto was NEVER a safe haven–it is purely speculative so will be hardest hit. No underlying value.
Noted. Thanks for your reply.
VIX put options.
Interesting. And speculative.
Expecting VIX to remain this elevated would be speculative.
Picked up FANG, CHRD, and TRMLF as well. Love buying things on sale!
I’m a little more cautious, but added to my TMDX position. I like to buy most of my positions when they’re trading above the 10-week MA line.
I should say my target is $180 to $200. It’s not a long-term hold.
There’s risk of a shelf offering, which could knock it down temporarily.
Thanks!
The problem now becomes crowd behavior in a fear environment. If this becomes a stampede to the exits, you are buying at the first smell of smoke. When people jump off the burning building–that is the time for bargains.
Can the Fed actually save a fire of this scale–probably not, assuming they wanted to. They want to save the big banks..
Do you think the brokerages people can’t log into do that on purpose so you can’t hit the sell button?
No… the more solid platforms work, but the discount brokerages are too cheap & shortsighted to invest in having battle-tested capacity for the rare days when there’s a surge of trading due to market crashes.
VVIX goes to 190. Volatility of the slightly perverse statistic of an averaged option vol across the S&P 500 otherwise known as VIX. A statistic of a statistic. Have not seen 190 since the GFC. 4 Horseman, leave some oats on your front stoop and maybe they pass you by.
What will matter is if relief rally (CB intervention in credit markets) holds or gets sold into. Still remains some Large players looking to unload as they are moving to cash.
Don’t forget the millions of retail investors facing margin calls and unable to even log in for hours…
That is not gonna help public sentiment when High Command announce just ignore that Imp behind the curtain.
Am holding for a second wave down. Will be finding out soon enough if that is good decision or not.
When it comes to money its always about business. Nothing personal just business.
So, in the first seven months of the year, S&P 500 still up about 10%, Dow Jones 2.5%, and Nasdaq 7.5%. Sounds dreadful.
Yes, it’s wonderful
Cannot log in to either Fidelity or Vanguard!
Ditto for Charles Schwab. So pissed! Some potential trades are already moving away from me!
… anyone else having issues getting to their accounts?
Yes. Schwab is down too. This is truly f’in clown world nowadays.
Couldn’t log in to Schwab to close a position a few months ago. As a result a gain turned into a loss. Schwab refused to make me whole so I stopped using them. Thankfully they chased me of the platform before things went from bad to worse.
Ironically these platforms being down might have prevented a larger sell off today.
Interactive Brokers is working. Guess who’s going to get more of my business in the future?
Fidelity and Vanguard working again
That’s not a bug but a feature! Vanguard and Fidelity want first dibs. They’ve got an agenda to promote!
Once upon a time, margin loans carried much lower borrowing costs than they now do. Even, a small margin loan was charged an interest rate close to the Federal Funds rate. Now the spread has widened out significantly.
Already bought some CNQ, CVE, SU, VRN. Bargains!
good luck
Thanks!
Bargain by what measure? Certainly not by PE ratios.
Better to measure oils on cash flow, but as far as PE goes:
CNQ 13, CVE 10, SU 8
VRN had a recent loss on asset sale so no PE.
Why buy now when you can get them cheaper?
I am afraid I don’t know the future as well as you do. What prices will indicate the bottom.
I was happy with the prices after the open today. Bought 7 stocks on sale. Sold 3 of them in the afternoon and pocketed 5%, 3% and 3%. Holding the rest.
I can always buy back the 3 I sold if they drop as you suggest.
Retail inflation met credit card limits. And then what happened, Daddy?
Good thing I wasn’t sipping my Coffee.
This market rout is just what doctor ordered. It will relieve some pressure on the bifurcated economy, where the wealthy have been spending like mad while the lower incomes have been struggling to make ends meet. If just a lttle more air comes out of the market bubble from here, then inflation may actually have a chance to recede.
Amazing how a 0.15% interest rate hike by the BOJ has totally destroyed the Yen carry trade.
“Now, South Korea has halted ALL sell orders as markets crash.”
The Hotel California lives. Buy in all you want, but…
This is why I have been raising my cash position. Started buying a bit last week. Looking forward to buying some bargains today!
Kamala takes the lead as markets crash.
That won’t last. She’s the incumbent not the challenger
Mish’s “hard recession” headline might just come true.
The Chief on the Chicago-based podcast Stocks & Jocks is shocked! For a long time heard him say how many of his people were so big in Apple and Nvidia.
AI sold all its UltraSupreme 7 stocks, front running everyone else and crashing the brokerage servers. AI is a beautiful frontman for the dirty tricksters.. as always..
Nothing to see here. The markets are strong and resilient just like our president.
You forgot the ‘sarcasm’ tag LOL
Bitcoin futures BB : Jan 8/11 2021, 42,730/31,105.
BTCUSD BB : Jan 8/11 2021, 42,000/30,261.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/price-limits.html#equityIndex
Read and know that they call it a “FIX” – – that is mafia terminology, by the way:
….”7%, 13%, and 20% price limits are applied to the futures fixing price and are effective from 8:30 a.m. CT – 2:25 p.m. CT. Mondays through Fridays. From 2:25 p.m. to 3:00 p.m. CT, only the 20% price limit will be applied to the futures price fixing.”
It amazes me how FEW PEOPLE KNOW that our markets are OPENLY RIGGED. You all have heard of the POMO, right?
“Working Group on Financial Markets
The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, known colloquially as the Plunge Protection Team, or “” was created by Executive Order 12631, signed on March 18, 1988, by United States President Ronald Reagan.”
This is known as the PPT in most professional circles….PPT-INDUCEMENTS keep Parties popular.
Watching trillions of fiat inflation being vaporized POOF! makes me SMILE.
A bit early to start betting it all on the reflation trade courtesy of your local friendly Central Bank.
Consumer confidence and ability, ability being a more meaningful event, have taken a beating. Between lock downs, inflation, interest rate hikes to counteract, and now job weakness coming to play. Shelter in place until the breaking storm subsides makes more sense.
This one not so easy to fix.
Probably worth adding as there is so much to keep track of, still have Iran’s response to come in ME.
That is going to occur no matter what financial markets do.
No matter please stay focused upon the important things such as Trump making comments,
“Float like a Butterfly, sting like a Bee.” seems have heard that one before somewhere, coming out of the mouth of some Boxer great who few understood his battle plan.
^^^ THIS ^^^
I don’t think central bank funny money is as effective during wars as it is at other times.
Not to worry, Miss Word Salad will save the world.
The great thing about markets is that they are … free markets. And the … freedom of the markets will … save the … markets for freedom where everything will be free!
Problem is many people operate at that level and it even sounds good to them.
This Crash will leave us unburdened by the crashes that have been.
I’m stealing that!
Easy come, easy go. VIX has not pushed 50 since the Covid Op and then the GFC. No worries, everyone can leverage up again at lower rates!
Gold usually hangs in there until the final days, and then it sells off as the margin calls expand. But then it recovers quickly, assuming it’s not different this time.
Which it’s not, as you have rightly pointed out many times.
BTC future closed Jul 12/15 gap, testing Jan 11 high. It might end up with a large buying tail, u never know…
smells like summer of 2007………this could be worse of course. like1929 bubble of everything deflating………
Only gas is cheaper
who can afford a car on their own. fancy pants perhaps. we share one auto, between 3 households……..i walk about 4 miles per day for all my life. i’m just a humble stock trader for past 40 years………….i’d rather invest in sneakers than fancy stuff like gasoline.
Has Peak Oil Become Self-Evident Yet?
Rystad Energy, a renowned energy research company headquartered in Norway, has made quite a statement recently: “Global recoverable oil reserves hold steady at 1,536 billion barrels; insufficient to meet demand without swift electrification”. In plain English: although there is still plenty of oil out there, it is physically not enough to meet demand, unless we rapidly electrify everything. There are a couple of things to unpack here, so let’s address them one by one.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/has-peak-oil-become-self-evident
NO WORRIES: they will shut down EVERYONE, but them, in the next Covid-?? SCAMDEMIC. LOCK PEOPLE UP, and oil supplies SURGE. However, TOILET PAPER runs out with each Covid panic due to the surge is pooping.
Stop being weird.
Nikkei 225 BB : Feb 27/Mar 20 1989, 32,598/31,344,
ECB, Fed and BOJ emergency meeting overnight perhaps ?
no
NQ [1D] BB : Jan 22/23, 17,585/17,409.50. Nov 2021 high is not too far below @16,767.50.
NQ is Nasdaq 100 E mini futures.
ME: not everyone here is a BEGINNER. SHEESH.
ATT: Jeff Green – how’s that Buy Used Teslas investment strategy performing?
Nothing in the last five days has been about a US 4.3% unemployment print and “only” 114000 jobs created. It has been about Japan, Japan, Japan.
I think it is also geopolitical risk of an all out war between Israel and Iran. US assets are now in place to help Israel fight against Iran at a moments notice. Effectively all commercial flights to/from Israel and Lebanon have stopped and US and EU countries have told their citizens to leave immediately or shelter in place and to prepare for the inability to leave if you don’t leave immediately.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-04/israel-braces-for-attack-from-iran-as-us-urges-gaza-cease-fire
Major land war in Europe plus major war in the Middle East and perhaps something brewing in the Pacific. The cascade of events is well in place now as one event feeds on the other.
NO, markets surge with War Preps: MORE MONEY FOR THE MIC, and then the entire structure goes into a FEEDING FRENZY, lead by Nancy Pelosi buying MIC stocks.
They surge on the prep, but fall on the actual event itself.
in our many century history, there were periods that markets cratered with the threat of end of hostilities……….but alas there is no certainty in a very soft science like econ and war
Won’t jesus come down to fix things if we stand by our greatest ally Israel?
us righteous folks will be swooped up in his sweet arms of mercy
The carry trade is potentially about to unwind which represents trillions of Yen. That’s why it’s all about Japan because the spill over goes everywhere.
Glad I’m sitting on lots of bullion at times like this
Markets move on a dime. I thought that the bull market would never end. I thought that generative AI will bring unparalleled wealth and growth.
I am still trying to understand what AI is… is it the useless chat bots that are now on every corporate website?
Is it the trash brain dead editorial content that I am seeing on some media sources?
What am I missing?
Oh right – nothing… it’s just like 3D printing
It’s a revolutionary user interface into databases that already exist and have existed for decades. AI can now access those based on human language rather than by programmers writing a bunch of specific database queries to a few specific databases. The AI can also be informed of all databases rather than a few that a given programmer or company knows about. So, more knowledge, and cut out all the middle men that used query the data (back office workers) and interpret the data for human consumption (customer facing employees). This differs markedly from self driving cars, because no critical thinking is needed, just pattern matching, which is all that AI algorithms have ever been able to do. In other words, the user interface application is an *actual* game changer, rather than just hype.
So it’s kinda like a hammer? Or a nail gun?
Wake me up when Ai can solve a Captcha hahahahahaahahahahahahaha
A.I. is SO stupid that when I said, “OK GOOGLE, TURN OFF GEMINI” – – it said that it did not understand my command.
YEP, that Generative AI is a barn burner. SOME MAJOR BIG MONEY are now asking for some REAL results, not just CHAT WORD SALAD.
How’s that 3D printer working out for ya?
Try printing off a bicycle then posting photos hahahahahaha
Duh
So, you’re saying that it’s a real speedy search engine that will plan my next vacation and print out a page or two in English?
It will be up to a decade to work out the kinks, but at some point, yes, absolutely.
GIGO still applies for many things.
??? Wha’?
I’ll stick with my 40-year-old saying: “Warning! Artificial Intelligence. Contains less than 10% Natural Intelligence.”
But you’re saying I’m wrong? OK, let’s bump it up to “…12% Natural Intelligence.” That oughta fix it.
There is no “intelligence”. That’s why it will be a game changer. It will actually listen to what you say and do what you say. If you ask a really nonsensical question, you will get a really nonsensical answer, or maybe be transferred to a human for questions that make absolutely no sense.
May I get your word salad with Extra Virgin Olive oil and Balsamic Vinegar, please?
AI is offering very promising initial results in detecting early stages of cancer from one drop of blood. (No, I am not talking about Theranos and that felon, Elizabeth Holmes). Recent reports of research from China show a breakthrough in detecting cancers at an early stage so they can be effectively treated before spreading through the body. Multiple articles by Johns-Hopkins, The Lancet, etc. have been published this spring and summer providing details on the clinical study.
AI extrapolates using algorithms to access extensive databases to assess anomalies in the blood sample. My cousin was just diagnosed with Stage-4 lung cancer with metastasis to her brain. She never smoked a day in her life. Chances of surviving 2024 very low.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/ai-tool-may-help-detect-cancer-few-minutes-drop-blood
wake me up when actually technology appears that lowers the price of any medical test….
we were using AI in 1980s for satellite imaging, remote sensing, searching for everything from marijuana grows, to whales, to potential oil and gas………and of course department of war applications……….i do believe the MD came up with the idea for screening for patients……
For whom ? If AI causes unemployment to go UP and remain there, it poses a huge problem to governments around the world imo.
Based on my interaction with chat bots on airline sites… I don’t think anyone is in danger of losing their job.
Actually Ai creates more jobs — you need people to deploy this useless shit … but you still need the actual human customer service people…
Cuz NOT ONCE has Ai solved a problem or answered one of my questions properly
Give it a decade, or even less.
Just like cold fusion, self driving battery Mars rovers and perpetual motion, it’s always just around the corner. Just not today….
Only problem being: While it may well be true that a billion Chinese can’t be wrong; that doesn’t extrapolate well to a billion indoctrinated rank idiots….
get the fish hook out of your mouth, before they pull you into the boat. (the big guy has a club)
C.O.: that is a feature, not a bug.
ANYTHING posing actual huge problems governments; any of them; is; a priori; always good. At least for all governments much larger and more intrusive than Jefferson’s; hence illegitimate from the getgo.
As for “unemployment”: It means nothing. Never did, never will. Never being anything but a poster child calling card for economic illiteracy.
Economically: What “AI”; like all childish hype; does, is waste/burn even more of previously built up capital. Hence making the world poorer. Sum total of real incomes hence drops. Hence workers are rendered worse off. Exactly how some braindead, arbitrary, mealymouthed, pointless, made up “definition” of “unemployed” ends up responding, is truly irrelevant.
There isn’t enough electricity to power AI, especially with windmills and solar panels.
Titanic moves now by central banks. Props being laid in like wood posts in a collapsing coal mine. Buffett hears rumors of war. British civil society unraveling. (With help from Russians.) Bitcoin missed its expected halving bonus. Can the CBs find enough timber to stop the cave in? That falling dust can’t be ignored any longer. Suddenly the lucky boomers are less sure about that new F-250, that downpayment gift to the grandkids. Honey I don’t feel so good.
All I know is that I have negative sympathy for anyone who gambled using other people’s money (margin).
You’re extrapolating this way too far. They’ll find a way to hold it all together, at least until November 6th.
There is no “they” now anymore than there was in Jan 2008
If there was a “they” there would never be a recession
They’ve been holding it together since 2008…. bravo … well done…
But now they are running very low on ammo — this f789er is gonna blow…
And by blow I mean not a market crash… a global economic collapse
Agree. Feels like the third wave is approaching. First was 2001/2002. Second was 2008/2009. They have been trying to defer the problems of the last two crises by papering over them but it hasn’t worked. More people globally are marginalized and inflation of current global monetary systems are causing more problems for everyone. A deflationary collapse similar to what happen during Covid or 2008/2009 financial crisis is what’s necessary but the problem is there is too much money in the hands of too many people. Governments have no way out of this.
Who are ‘they’ specifically? Do they have names?
Well, swap lines, rate cuts, special programs, calling frens around the Street to alert them ahead of time (did I say that out loud?), short squeezes etc. Oldie but goodie playbook. Next couple of months going to be a doozy market wise. Not great for a flagging economy and normal people.
Not great for anyone not holding cash
Do I dare mention I funded a 15 year high yield CD two weeks ago because it looked better than any other choice I could find.
Mish: look up “PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM” and the CME FIX. Come on, Man, you are not that naive, right?
”
There is no “they” now anymore than there was in Jan 2008
”
There were one…
”
If there was a “they” there would never be a recession
”
Of course there would. Just ones which only negatively affected non-theys.
“They” doesn’t have to mean a small group with membership enumerated down to individual “evil” named people.
Meaning: “they” as in Soros, Gates Rasputin and three other sorcerers, are trivially silly.
But “they” as in some having greater influence to benefit from the ability of totalitarian government to transfer others’ earnings their way; and having this influence almost entirely due to nothing other than self perpetuating historical happenstance of the exact kind America was founded to avoid; is not only possible, but indeed exactly a description of current reality.
In practical terms: Goldman Sachs executives and “owners” will not end up homeless beggars this time, neither. Just as they did not in 2008. And in both cases; that is due not in any way, shape nor form, to any insight, knowledge, nor action by themselves. But instead simply due to America’s totalitarian government yet again electing to burn yet another batch of less destructive, more competent people’s children, in yet another act of bailing out the same old useless riffraff, the “they” ‘s as last time.
Liquidity freezes/panics/recessions of the past were tremendous opportunities for those with means who were positioned appropriately. Then there was 1907, an episode that led to some changes which immensely benefitted a few.
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/12/23/256326325/a-locked-door-a-secret-meeting-and-the-birth-of-the-fed
This isn’t to say I’m theorizing a cabal made any of them happen, just pointing out recession is an opportunity for someone so “they” very well could make one happen. Think the movie “Trading Places” except on a grander scale.
I had predicted things would be unstable until 2033. This 17 year cycle started in 2016/17. Buckle up as I think comparatively, things are going to look better when we look back on the 2021-2024 era. Debt is set to become a massive problem for the US from now. We look back on the time before Covid with fondness and delusions but in truth that is when the debt problem went from tractable to intractable b/c the government stopped trying to pay down debt with the additional revenue they got. Then Covid hit a debt bomb occurred again. I could easily see a scenario where debt goes to $50T due to another emergency in 2025 or 2026. Where does this end ? Feels like by 2033, there will be a new currency of some sort. There is really no predicting what things will look like even in 2025 for multiple reasons. It feels like we have entered a time for another monetary system very soon.
When you say we will look back fondly on the LOCK-DOWNS, false MASKING narratives, Fauci: THAT scares me more than what you are suggesting. You are suggesting COMPLETE CHAOS, with GOVERNMENT CONTROLS put into play using ARMED “NATIONAL GUARD” with battering rams.
Actually, that sounds like fun to me, IF I were a killer.
He said we look back on the time before Covid with fondness, not the Covid times.