Trump is suffering from extreme Foot-In-Mouth-Disease. He Just cannot keep on message. Dear Donald, it’s still the economy stupid.
I mentioned to a friend this morning that I thought Trump was behind. Trump got into very hot water twice, likely offending any person with the least bit of common sense.
The above image from Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin came out about two hours ago and it confirms what I thought.
Last update: 1:00 p.m, Sunday, August 4: After another day of strong polling, Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Donald Trump for the first time since the forecast launched. Although the race is still a toss-up, Harris leads Trump by 1.4 points in our national polling average, and has a 51 percent chance of winning the electoral college.
Trump Questions Kamala’s Race
Listen to the gasp from the audience when Trump says “I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black and wants to be known as Black. I respect either one. Obviously, she doesn’t.”
Wow!
That is going to cost Trump tens of thousands and perhaps over a hundred thousand Black votes.
Ironically, this was at a conference when Trump that aimed to build Black support.
Not Just Trump
Also consider Republicans Step Up Attacks on Kamala Harris
Sebastian Gorka, a former aide to Donald Trump, recently referred to the vice president as “colored” and a “DEI hire.” The former president’s campaign referred to Harris as “Low IQ Kamala” on social media. Some of the former president’s supporters have for years donned shirts, carried signs or sported “Joe And The Hoe Gotta Go” bumper stickers.
What Happened to the Polls?
instead of sticking to an economic message, Trump cannot stop from telling the world how great he is and how bad everyone else is.
He cannot control himself. To put it bluntly, Trump would rather throw red meat to howling hyenas than win.
Then, to top it off, Trump twice played race cards and was burnt badly both times.
Even Republicans can’t stand it.
Brian Kemp, Georgia Governor Blasts Trump
Geoff Duncan, the former Republican Lt. Governor of Georgia
Going After Kamala All Wrong
Please consider Abigail Shrier: Republicans, You’re Going After Kamala All Wrong
Here’s what Republican wallowing looks like:
Pushing the idea that Harris is a “DEI hire.” Conservatives insist that calling her a DEI hire is fair and just. After all, DEI is a terrible, unethical system. If the Democrats love DEI so much, why not own it? Biden all but branded Harris a DEI hire when he announced he would only consider female minority candidates.
All true. And all equally beside the point.
Republicans foolish enough to attack Harris as a DEI hire are likely to be startled by the stampede to defend her. For one thing, calling Harris a DEI hire mistakes attacking the system with attacking its beneficiaries. The system of DEI is unethical and must be dismantled. But the beneficiaries did nothing wrong. Were they not supposed to apply for these jobs? Why shame them now?
Consider that we all regard it as immoral for Major League Baseball to have once excluded Black players. The system was rotten, but the players in it—Ruth, Williams, DiMaggio—don’t deserve our contempt. Attack the system, not the players.
The other counterproductive strategy—which some Republicans seem keen to pursue—is “slut shaming” Harris for her affair, early in her career, with the powerful older politician Willie Brown, the married mayor of San Francisco. The charge seems ridiculous when leveled against a happily married woman turning sixty, who looks like a kindly auntie and whose stepchildren call her “Momala.” In four years as the first female veep, she presented a personal side that was warm and conventional, and that’s what voters remember. Shaming her for earlier romantic affairs will only inspire her base to vote early.
The question Republicans ought to confront before leveling any attack is: “Will this energize my supporters more or hers?” For nearly every ad hominem salvo currently flung at Harris, the answer is: hers.
Slut-Slamming Hypocrisy
Slut-slamming is all the more amusing in the light of Trump’s affair with Stormy Daniels, an American pornographic film actress.
Defending Trump
Stop defending Trump. There is no excuse for what he said.
Governor Kemp has it correct.
Peak Trump
On July 21, I commented Good News for Democrats: Throw the Polls Out, Start All Over
At the time I made that comment, Nate Silver had Trump’s odds of winning at 72.8 percent to 26.9 percent for Biden with a 0.4 percent chance of no majority (recount of a rogue elector voting for Kennedy).
Trump Steps Down to the Occasion
On July 22, I commented In the Wake Biden’s Campaign Exit, Trump Steps Down to the Occasion
Question of the Day
The following question is how many independents will see things:
“Would I rather have a jackass president who will get some things right, or would I rather take a chance on Harris?“
Let’s be honest about how Trump’s belittling sounds. If you don’t like the word “jackass” then feel free to substitute a word or phrase that suits you.
I do not know the answer to my question, and if you have an ounce of common sense, you will admit you don’t either.
Regardless, such statements will cost Trump votes.
Peak Trump?
Trump’s polling odds have peaked or soon will.
My statement implies nothing other than widespread belief that Harris-Anyone has a better shot than Biden-Harris.
I nailed the top.
Is Nate Silver Wrong?
Please spare me the sap about Nate Silver being wrong in 2016 or whenever, especially if you liked his odds on July 21.
Silver was wrong, but in a totally different sense than most think. He had the odds wrong, not the election wrong. The election was much closer than the thought. That was the real mistake not the outcome itself.
Had it not been for a last minute Comey bombshell and/or a stupid FIMD by Hillary regarding “deplorables” she would have won. Predicting Hillary to win was reasonable. Calling the odds 70-30 was the mistake.
People act like 30% chances never happen when they happen 30% of the time.
I thought the election was more like 55-45 not 70-30. I still think that is about right.
Comment on Bias (Added after posting)
Modest oversampling is irrelevant. Results are weighted.
And here is a real hoot: Erza Klein moans about Republican Bias.
The worst offender is Rasmussen with a strong Republican bias.
Pollsters generally correct for oversampling one side or another. If they don’t Silver adjusts.
Two weeks ago Republicans loved Silver, now they don’t. The problem isn’t Silver.
The media doesn’t even do their own polls for the most part. Siena does NYT and is very highly rated.
That said, I meant to make a comment that Harris is in a honeymoon period and the polls are likely a bit high.
Things will settle down about a week after the Democrat convention.
Can Trump Win?
Of course! Peak Trump does not imply Trump will lose.
However, after foolishly losing huge numbers of Black and independent votes due to blatantly stupid statements, winning will be much harder.
Winning back back any votes he just lost won’t be easy and may not even be possible. But there still are undecided votes to win or lose.
Best Thing Going for Trump
The best thing going for Trump right now is a weakening economy. I believe a recession has started and it will pick up steam.
July 31: Small Business Employment Growth Is Now Negative (and What It Means)
ADP data shows year-over-year payroll growth is negative 88,000 for small corporations sized 20-49. Trends are negative in all but very large corporations.
August 1: The Manufacturing ISM Index Is Lower Than Every Economist’s Estimate
The ISM manufacturing report was a disaster from every angle, especially employment , production, and backlogs. Employment reading worst since June 2020.
August 1: Commercial Construction Spending Is Down 9 Consecutive Months
Here’s the kicker: It’s not office related. And the Census Department has heavy negative revisions to spending. Let’s investigate.
August 1: Intel Announces 15,000 Job Cuts, 15 Percent of its Workforce
Intel received $8.5 billion in Biden administration grants (Inflation Reduction Act) but announces massive layoffs and halts dividends due to a decline in revenue.
August 2: Unemployment Rate Jumps, Jobs Rise Only 114,000 with More Negative Revisions
The headline jobs number was much weaker than the consensus estimate of 180,000 and the unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points.
Recession Has Started
On July 8, I wrote Weak Data Says a Recession Has Already Started, Let’s Now Discuss When
I’ve seen enough. A recession has started. Let’s discuss starting with a very good indicator that has few false positives and no false negatives.
My follow-up post was on August 2.
August 2: The McKelvey (Sahm) Unemployment Rate Recession Rule Just Triggered
A recession indicator based off rising unemployment triggered in July. Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, takes credit for an indicator she did not invent. Let’s discuss.
A Recession Helps Trump
If Trump can avoid additional cases of severe FIMD and manages to stick to the economy, he can win.
Alternatively, if the recession is deep enough and Trump’s FIMD is of a lesser nature, he can also win.
Otherwise Trump may have blown it. Damage in the last week was enormous.
A recession is still my base case. Meanwhile, if you defend or make excuses for Trump’s antics, you are part of the problem.
Addendum Nate Silver
The Silver Bulletin polling averages are a little fancy. They adjust for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters, the presence or absence of RFK Jr., and house effects. They weight more reliable polls more heavily. And they use national polls to make inferences about state polls and vice versa. It requires a few extra CPU cycles — but the reward is a more stable average that doesn’t get psyched out by outliers.
Addendum – The Big Point
It is not whether Trump or Harris is in the lead that matters. It is the direction.
How can a fight with Brian Kemp not cost votes? How can stupid statements about race not cost votes?
The BS over sampling and pollster bias is just that. Silver corrects for it. Pollsters also correct for their own weighting errors.
It is (should be) perfectly clear that Trump is acting stupid, and it is costing him votes.
Modest oversampling is irrelevant. Results are weighted.
And here is a real hoot: Erza Klein moans about Republican Bias.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ezraklein/comments/1b7gmvc/salon_calls_out_times_for_inaccurate_polling_and/
The worst offender is Rasmussen with a strong Republican bias.
Pollsters generally correct for oversampling one side or another. If they don’t Silver adjusts.
Two weeks ago Republicans loved Silver, now they don’t. The problem isn’t Silver.
The media doesn’t even do their own polls for the most part. Siena does NYT and is very highly rated.
That said, I meant to make a comment that Harris is in a honeymoon period and the polls are likely a bit high.
Things will settle down about a week after the Democrat convention.
I had Trump winning in 2016 and Biden winning in 2020 based on my poll of polls. People called me crazy on social media and private chats when I told them that Trump would win in 2016.The night before election day I posted on multiple private facebook groups that Trump would win and people should not be shocked. I got made fun of repeatedly by friends and family. No one was laughing the next night.
This year is less predictable b/c of the economy and the churn and because Trump appears to be more erratic every day. Just as no one wanted Biden because of his age, I think more people may not want Trump as the days go by b/c he is simply becoming more erratic by the day. Some voters are waiting for a debate that may not happen. But truly as Trump keeps up the wrong-headed attacks on Harris, his polling numbers keep going down.
@“casual observer”
As every second post on this thread is from you, you hardly deserve the moniker “casual.”
As each one is a vindictive missive denigrating the candidate you despise, your pretense of being a dispassionate “casual observer” is laughable.
Please find a more truthful handle. May I suggest “Rabid Demagogue?”
How about something more subtle… “grumpy troll?”
Nah, The degenerate Candidate is doing it ALL to himself. He’s been doing it the entire election. He was just fortunate to be running against someone that wasn’t up to speed. Now the Dems have a candidate that just needs to avoid saying something completely stupid and hope that the economy floats for about 3+ months before any significant downturn.
Trump could easily be 20 points ahead if he could just shut his mouth for HALF the amount of time. But he can’t and he won’t. Not a surprise. No need to piss off your OWN party. He’s a buffoon. Yelling at Brian Kemp to “Get Off My Lawn” makes him look like the older and dumber and more foolish egomaniac that he is. Last time I checked, Georgia could be a swing State. Wanna piss of the Governor of a Swing State? Insult his family…that WILL do it.
Exactly. People say that Harris clearing the Biden bar wasn’t that hard but Trump was not that far in front of Biden and this is what Harris has shown in 10 days. The Republicans could have easily been ahead at this point by double digits if they had anyone other than Trump but Trump coopted the party and turned into a Trump business. I am certain a solid chunk of Republicans will silently vote for Harris in swing states to make sure Trump doesn’t win. Georgia is exhibit A.
Yeah, if enough Nikkey Haley voters go Harris, or simply sit out the election, it’s over for Trump.
Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger failed to stop the cheating bc
they are the D puppets.
There was no cheating.
And yet you keep reading them. I’ve been on Mish’s blog circa 1999. Don’t let the name fool you and keep the comments coming. It is all very interesting. The comments section is what keeps this place lively. Economics is a dismal science. Human behavior is what drives it.
Some time ago, the past was the future, which is now passed. The future we passed is past. One day, our future will be our past when we pass it. Until then, the past and future are exactly, precisely, that. Our now will be then, but then can’t be now.
Most “black people” don’t regard Kamala as “black”, so Trump’s comments are unlikely to cost “black” votes.
did everyone see the Braindead McCain RINO’S in AZ gave support to dumber than rocks-laughin-K
Fix is in and it’s full speed ahead
I find it hard to believe this minor gaff could be this major of an issue to where he looses the election. I mean he is not wrong, and yeah its rude – but hardly worth loosing.
It was not a minor gaffe
It was two major gaffes back-to-back
Offending blacks and trashing Brian Kemp are huge errors.
He could easily lose Georgia over this
It was not even a gaffe, never mind a minor one, stop hyperventilating and get out of your CNN/MSNBC bubble.
Calling out Kamala’s race swapping is not “offending blacks”, it’s pointing out facts published regularly, and drawing attention to the cynical nature of trying to use identity politics.
Suggesting that black people only vote for people based on how they look rather than what they say is what is “offensive to blacks”, as if the racist left is suggesting that black voters don’t have minds of their own or sophisticated ways of thinking.
It’s those attacking these observations who are insulting “blacks”.
Abigail and Mish must think they understand the black community but they are underestimating the intelligence of the black community “keeping it real.” They understand full well Kammy is a fake-blacking phony, and the net effect for Trump is on the upside as he reminds them of what they already know. Any black people clutching their pearls over his statement already wouldn’t consider voting for him anyway. No one has any loyalty to Brian Kemp, at all. No voters care if he gets offended. Trump’s idiotic ways are already well baked into the cake at this point.
I have commented that huge numbers of Blacks have switched to Trump.
Even more so those under the age of 35
So you must have missed some posted because I have talked about tis at lest 5 times
Most voters have never seen her live or heard her speak except for reading a teleprompter. If the Dems keep it that way, she’ll lose. If she speaks, sounds normal and sensible, and not a militant member of the party’s far left, she’ll win. Most of the public senses that 80 year olds really shouldn’t be president. But the instinct of the control freaks who orchestrated Biden’s removal will be to keep her in the basement protecting a narrow lead in the electoral college. That would be a mistake that would open the door for Trump.
Polls are biased and useless for the most part. We learned that in 2016.
And what can Nate Silver, the guy who at one point predicted Hillary had close to a 100% chance of winning in 2016, have to say that anyone cares about?
bogus one/two point difference polls to make a steal believable.
Kamala Harris Surprises Everyone
Aug. 5, 2024
By Gail Collins and Bret Stephens
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/opinion/kamala-harris-trump-birthrate.html
Mish is right!
TOO MANY VARIABLES IN THIS RACE WTH TWO UNPOPULAR CANDIDATES! I GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE TO TRUMP! WE ALREADY KNOW HIS DUMB SHORTCOMINGS!
ARE YOU BETTER OFF OFF, COULD KILL HER CHANCES!
A BLACK SWAN EVENT LIKE A TERROIST ATTACK, RIOTS AFTER SCHOOL START GETTING OUT OF CONTROL, HER CACKLING, BEING EVASIVE, PAST VIDEOS AND COMMENTS, WARS ESCALATING OUT OFCONTROL,A LOT CAN GO WRONG FOR HER! MAYBE HER DISGRUNTELD STAFF CAN TURN ON HER TOO!
EVEN BIDEN WHEN HE STATED, HE CURED THE ECONOMY AS RECORD BANKRUPTICIES ARE BEING FILED! BK’S BEING FILED THIS TIME BECAUSE THINGS ARE GETTING WORSE SO FAST! USUALLY THEY ARE FILED WHEN PEOPLE SEE THINGS GETTING BETTER TO GET BACK ON THIER FEET! PULLING THEIR HEADS OUT OF THE SAND!
EEK IT IS GOING TO BE WILD, LETS SEE WHAT ELSE POPS UP! KAMALA IS NO TULSI GABBARD! THANK GOD SHE DOESN;T HAVE TO DEBATE HER!
I think you’ve missed it on this one.
It’s not about the economy, Trump, or who said what.
Kamala is experiencing- benefitting from – the same social engineering that they used to promote Covid-19, Taylor Swift – everyone HAD to go to the eras tour, or the Gabby Petito story they ran to take the heat off of the Afghanistan withdrawl, the list goes on.
Ultimately you are correct. Kamala is in the lead, they literally announced her as the new candidate on iHeart Radio music only radio stations in my area that have NEVER run any news stories.
There are behind the scenes players working on this one
Im voting Trump, but I wish he’d pivot and say something like
‘frankly I’m not interested in identity politics…thats what the democrats have been doing to divide this country now for years. My focus is on making sure middle and lower income families don’t have to worry about whether they can put food on the table, buy a home and have enough left over to go on a vacation every once in a while.’
I suspect he could get closer to a Reaganesque style reelection result that way (within reason accounting for the polarization and social engineering changes over the last 40 years)
And you all think Kennedy has no chance…
The election will be decided in the middle east.
After Biden told Netanyahu to restrain his retaliation against Iran, the Trump debate was proposed and Harris replaced Biden. So she owes her ass to Bibi. When push comes to shove, she will side with her jewish donors over her non-White base. And it looks like push is coming to shove very quickly.
Trump, his base and his donors are all on the same page.
I’m guessing she’ll pick the Jewish PA governor as her running mate. That’s the dead giveaway. Oh yeah, and she’s married to a Jewish fellow.
Polls are as reliable as a 1986 Hyundai Excel and should be read as though Babylon Bee wiped something on the wall to come up with the results.
The propaganda is coming hard from the media. The independent (UK) is reporting Kamala’s massive crowds outnumber Trump at rallies, citing her recent 15 minute speech in Atlanta. The Independent reported a crowd of 10,000 for Kamala.
if you examine the footage, her stage was on the main floor, it was large and took up where many seats would be. Across from her stage the risers were empty. Yet according to many media sources, not just the Independent she had a crowd of 10,000 people. The venue can only hold maximum 8,000 people and the fire marshal is very stern in this regard.
There is no way she pulled 10,000 people. It was less than 1/2 that number at most from video footage available. Trump spoke for 90 minutes at the same venue and people were lining up the day before to get in.
There is no such grass roots support for Harris. Her numbers are manipulated by a compliant DNC owned media.
“The independent” is not and never has been a “newspaper”, it’s a low grade trolling rag for sociology students.
A deteriorating economy is far more likely to hurt Trump voters than Harris voters. So it’s influence may be less detrimental to Harris than it initially appears.
Mish called peak Trump a couple of weeks ago and he is probably right. In that spirit, I’m calling peak Harris this week. The economic weakness spreading across the world and her own unlikeable personality will start to weigh as she is on camera daily. Biden remaining in office will hurt her too as events deteriorate and his incapacitation hurts America. The election will be close and decided by a few key districts in a few key States. I have no idea who will win, but it won’t be a landslide either way and neither party will be able to claim a mandate. I almost feel sorry for whoever wins, but both parties sicken me so no sympathy.
I’m calling peak Mish, every week.
Trump masterfully called out the scam of Identity Politics.
Any black person that was voting for Trump has not changed their mind now that Harris is the installed nominee. Ditto any Hispanic voter. Two groups that Trump has made gains with and he has not lost any of that support.
This is a class issue, and blue collar workers, working class voters, have figured out that career DC politicians dont give a crap about them.
If you never spend any time in minority areas or among working class ppl then you will likely not hear their voices in the MSM. Dont make the mistake of believing that they are still as devoted to Team Blue as they were 4 yrs ago.
“Meanwhile, if you defend or make excuses for Trump’s antics, you are part of the problem.”
How about we see it differently from you?
Trump is the immediate problem, Mish. He had an opportunity to sell a fairly radical, America-first, non-interventionist, liberal-capitalist agenda. Instead he decided to play footsie again with traditional conservative Republicans, adding scattered non-sequiturs that must have popped into his head on the golf course: no taxes on tips, massive tariffs, green cards for college grads, and god knows what’s next.
The larger, obvious problem is that our political system gives us a choice between this buffoonery and a radical socialist/fascist management class, with maybe big wars in Europe and Asia to cement its control.
If Trump were offering a worthwhile agenda, we wouldn’t give a hoot how often he mocks Kamala.
It doesn’t matter how ignorant and racist Trump is, over 40% of Americans don’t care how ugly his behavior is and they’ll vote for him in November. Some voters have zero standards.
I could say the same about democrats mindlessly voting for Harris
Did this help make you feel unburdened from what has been? Russia is a big country. It’s next to another country called Ukraine.
I’m voting for someone who pulls us back to the center . I don’t give a rats ass about their stupid comments. I want someone who hates the racist DEI more than I . The democrats must be stopped now or they will continue their complete destruction of the social fabric of this once great country or you will see a civil war breakout .Common sense has been jettisoned for emotional ,pearl clutching feelers that believe everything the biased media says. Defunding the police is a great example of the knee jerk feelers . Eliminating ICE is another example . Letting the country be overrun by economic asylum seekers being paid up to $ 20,000 ( I have proof of this ) ea. when rents are sky high and rentals are few and far between will breed massive civil unrest once they are forced out of their free rooms or dormitories. I’m glad I don’t live in the city as hell is sure to visit these places soon .
oh yeah ,please tell me about the standards Biden ( the big guy ) voters have .
Trump simply pointed out the obvious about Kamala. She is an Indian, and not a Negro. She was hailed as the first Indian in American History to get elected to the Senate. She has literally denied her true identity and is referring to herself as an African American, which she is clearly not. She obviously doesn’t respect her own Heritage and also the Negro Heritage, as she lies about that race for her own personal gain, as a fake, phony, and fraud. I have a harder time trying to understand how this will not cost Kamala votes for being a liar about her own identity. All the black people I know, are far too intelligent to fall for her BS, and even though some were voting for Biden, for there own reasons, I don’t know any, that will vote for the fraud Kamala, and I wouldn’t either if I were black!
The Following: “Consider that we all regard it as immoral for Major League Baseball to have once excluded Black players.“ is an extremely horrible example, and you should apologize for it. Baseball is a Sport! (P.S. They don’t allow Woman to Play still today, unlike Blacks, So are ALL Woman Not supposed to vote for Trump as well? Your losing it Mish..
It should be clear, that rules in Politics are created by the Politicians, so don’t blame Trump OR Kamala, as they are simply Politicians, and “We All Know They Lie” so leave it alone as it is what it is. I am not going to say he was smart or political astute, but he is playing by the rules, and he is 100% Honest, so let him have at it, and the chips will fall where they may.
I personally don’t think this hurts Trump at all, because what He will gain from some black voters, most white voters, and should be ALL Indian voters. I think it has more potential to help than hurt, as it gets noticed at a fact, once the MSM BS goes away, and they move back onto the Jewish. Man those Dems truly hate just about everybody, and that includes themselves in many cases…
“Would I rather take a chance on Harris?“ Nobody should want to, nobody has to, and most won’t, and this will not change any of that IMO.
Let’s be honest about the Economy shall we. It’s in shambles, and that helps Trump Tremendously, and way beyond a play on words, not a “Word Salad” mind you, but just honest spoken words…
i only dispute one point you make in your excellent summation. Trump is NOT a politician. If he were he’d “act & speak” more like Mish Wish he would!!
Unpolished comes to mind for me, but he truly was in no way a Politician, but He is in that Role now, at times unfortunately for him, as they wouldn’t count for nearly as much. As such He must try His best to be one, play one, etc. to fit the Narrative expectations that have been set up long ago…
Irony:
Trump Famous Words: “Your Fired”
Politicians Least Heard Words: “Your Fired”
“The Apprentice” boardroom jerks ruled the US between Jan 2017 and Jan 2021 and messed it up.
Trump should bow out, like Biden did and put Haley in. The Pubs would have a good chance of beating Harris then.
Keep Trump in, we need to stick the stake through his heart
“a kinder, gentler, politics” from the extreme far left, the ideology that saw the extermination of millions.
BWAHAHAHAHA!!! So you want two Indian retard puppet girls in the race? What a weirdo you are.
The Dunn-Kruger effect is finally catching up with Trump. Calling Kamala Harris low IQ, when she obviously has a higher IQ than Trump, is just a sign of a low IQ but being unable to realize it. That he has chickened out of the debate just adds to the impression of a morose campaign.
I think he’s scared of debating someone who is much younger than him. He avoided debates during the primaries b/c of the look of being old against younger Republicans who are certainly more coherent and would have made much better general election candidates. Literally the only person Trump could look better against is Biden and that ship sailed.
Hardly.
It’s that the Democrats want to have a debate hosted by a Democrat-biased media network, rather than go on Fox where they can’t control the environment for their weak candidates.
Um… Kamala is running, and scared as hell, from the debate, and Not Trump!
I’m from California and have observed Harris for years. She is not a high IQ person
Kamala is clearly a bubble head – she has the depth of thought of the average LAUSD employee.
At least learn to spell it, lest you become a victim of it. Oh the irony!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
B.R.O.K.E.
Can Harris or Trump fix that?
We are a bankrupt nation.
One of them is trying to get wages up by getting manufacturing back to the US and securing the border.
The other is going to ride the outsourcing, open borders, cheap labor policies to the collapse.
“He May Need a Hard Recession to Win”
Looking at the markets tonight, he way get it. You are a prophet.
Trump comments about Harris “not being Black” intended to highlight she is a rank political opportunist.
Harris family history is readily available online. Primary heritage is Indian. Indian on maternal side, paternal side Finnegan a surname.
Our society is enlightened enough to permit if not applauded one being allowed to identify as male/female and now to identify as any ethnicity?
Open minded African American voters will not appreciate, similar to native Americans not appreciating Elizabeth Warren’s false claims of ethnicity.
What does Harris’ 23andMe account state with respect to ethnicity. My bet, based on online genealogy records, 3/4 Indian heritage.
Related to Elizabeth Warren.
So what?
Trump lost votes
It’s a stupid and losing issue.
See weekend CNN interview of authentic working class Black males in barbershop shop – “Kamala is Asian not Black,” with white commentator, after they express their views, noting his view and not theirs represent the Black community.
Yes her ethnicity is and should be a non issue, but use of “Black heritage” when not warranted, reeks of political opportunism. We are so tribal we alway view everything through our set of societal prescription glasses.
Those offended were not voting for Trump anyway. Those supporting such statements are the key – Black working class community in swing states.
Harris should embrace her true, predominant, Indian heritage and represent a community that has accomplish so much in such a short period of time.
Ah yes, are you a white man, splainin’ to Kamala how she should behave? That seems pretty sus, if so.
Learn english, people will understand you better…
Trump has not lost one single vote, yet. He may, but he equally may pick up a lot of votes. We simply don’t know yet, because as usual the truth is being masked. Nobody knows just yet…
Only if your primary objective is garnering votes (the usual motive of a politician in the run-up to an election).
Although that is _a_ motive for Trump, it is _not_ the primary one.
Trump’s primary motive is garnering adulation for Trump.
He simply felt (probably quite correctly) that the issue would produce yet more adulation from his established base.
Quite often his primary motive, which he finds quite impossible to control, actually works against his chances of election.
Watson
Can you prove he lost votes over that? No, I thought not. Stop it. There are other reasons for votes to be lost.
It’s a minor issue anyway, just pointing out that she is FoS and cynical identity politics manipulator.
In 2016 Graham said if Trump wins it will be the end of the Republican Party and we will deserve it. They had more than enough chances to get rid of him and be rid of him. But their fears were/are greater than their convictions. When people fear standing up to power, bad things can happen to democracy.
Look at RealClearPolitics polls back in 2016 and 2020 showing on 4 August for those years how far ahead was Clinton and Biden.
I think Biden was 6% ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania, yet he won it by around 1.2%.
Trump has to avoid the trap of petty banter such as woke identity politics and focus on Harris-Biden regime policies like Medicaid is +$120 billion over the Pentagon budget (how much is that from the open border).
Focus on Harris being the candidate of Soros Prosecutor (from liberal dystopia California) and the Open Border Czar.
Focus on her being the most liberal Senator as far as voting record.
Bottomline, now she is undergoing a “remaking” into Chameleon Harris to try to fool enough voters that the economy is great and that she is a “moderate”.
She’s worse than “weird”, she is “RECKLESS” and “DANGEROUS” to our country.
This is not 2016 or 2020
it seems more like 1984, the book, not the year..
”
She’s worse than “weird”, she is “RECKLESS” and “DANGEROUS” to our country.
”
Yup. And effectively no different in any meaningful way; at all; from Trump. Nor Bush. Nor Obama. Nor Reagan….
Ron Paul was a bit different. The rest of the post ’71 illiterate rabble…: All far below the noisefloor of the noisefloor, as far as meaningful differences go.
No, she is different, she talks and laughs like a moron, she can’t be taken seriously as a president, nor Biden.
“..she can’t be taken seriously as a president,..”
I know. No different from Trump. Nor Bush. Nor Obama. Nor Reagan….
All the vitriol and name calling between Trump and Kamala is such a turnoff. I prefer to listen to the candidate who is talking about the real issues effecting real people; chronic illness, economy (Trump added $8 million and Biden $7 trillion thus far to the deficit), endless wars, corporate capture of our federal agencies, the abuse of power by the government weaponizing agencies, and censorship. Stop the insanity. Enough with the duopoly. Nothing has changed with them in control because corporate oligarchs control them $$$. All these manipulated polls. And they changed the rules for any independent to run after they learned their lesson with Ross Perot. Kennedy will be on the ballot in all 50 states. The DNC is trying to block them but so far they are on 42 states and will be on all 50 plus DC. Can’t wait for him to win!
“I prefer to listen to the candidate who is talking about the real issues effecting real people; chronic illness, economy..”
Emphasis “talking.” Yet will do NOTHING meaningfully different from the two similarly illiterate frontrunning loudmouths.
Truly, none of the politicians have a clue about what is really happening in the economy and why.
And not just none of the politicians. But indeed noone in the entire class of people from which politicians are drawn. As in, literally, not one.
As bad as some may feel this sounds: “We”, as in Americans, WOULD be better off as a province of China by now. By a lot. Life would simply be better, per nearly all measures, for far and away most. And that’s not at all due to communism being even remotely good in any way at all.
If you don’t want WW3 vote for Trump. If you want WW3 vote for kamala
If anybody truly wants WW3, then why vote at all?
CHANGE!!! It is just a word promised by Obama, Biden, and Trump. They will not deliver that thing, CHANGE.
FACTS. Because they are on the oligarch payroll. They are owned.
I don’t think it’s an act.
There’s no way a hard recession happens by early November unless a war or some other major exogenous factor pops up. Although unemployment claims have gone up a bit, they are still well below anything approaching recessionary levels and new jobs creation while down, is still enough to capture all the new entrants to the workforce. Home prices holding up despite massive inventory increases. TSA checkpoints breaking passenger records at airports every day. At Costco today there was not a single empty parking spot, even all the way at the very end of the parking lot. People are still spending money hand over fist.
Don’t get me wrong, a recession will happen and and we’re due for one. I just don’t see it in three months’ time.
Anything can happen…although you’re probably correct. BIG Stock Market crash or a Bank going under or some REALLY bad issue with Tech, etc. could always happen. But it’s getting pretty close to voting time for many people.
you sound like the Bernanke’s succesor, the Goldman Sachs fellow begging nancy peolosi on his knees after the housing bubble crash of 2007/2008. Nobody saw it coming, he said…..
I’m in the Trump camp, but his vitriol directed at Harris verges on delusional. I have a feeling that instead of focusing on the issues confronting our country, Trump would use the presidency to avenge all the crap that was thrown at him the last 8 years. Others are starting to feel the same way. I always thought that harping on Biden to get out of the race would come back to haunt Trump. “Be careful of what you wish for.”
I find it odd that people are going after Harris for talking to black sororities, one of which she was a member of at Howard University. I don’t see this as pandering but more as just talking to sorority sisters. In order to raise her as black, her Hindu mom actually made her go a black church in Oakland. Is she 100% black ? No she never will be. Trump seems confounded as to what to do because Harris is multiracial. From Jon Stewart this past week at 13:45 and after:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNu_Q11QFWY
“2 races in one person ?…”
Jon is pretty hilarious on that one. Trump is White and Orange though…you would think he could relate?? All jokes aside. He just needed so shut up about her for three months and he would win. Probably not possible for him.
You don’t see Harris pandering? You must only go to the DNC website for your news. That’s all she’s really good at…. working a room and getting people already voting for her to vote for her harder.
Earlier this year I had predicted Trump would be in more legal trouble by late summer/early fall and it is happening.
Trump is back in court for January 6th.Trump is back in court for election interference and fraud (now hearing is set for sometime in August).Federal court case resumes for E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case in September
\September is the month Trump will lose a lot of momentum in his campaign because he will be spending more time in court. Expect more outbursts by him and more gag orders and even house arrest should be violate more gag orders. Trump’s doesn’t have anything new or different up his sleeve but attacking everyone. He comes out looking weird and JD Vance is not a good fallback plan for the Republican party which is really just the party of Trump. If Trump fails badly this fall, it will be the end of MAGA and the Republican party will go back to what it was before Trump. In the end, Trump is about Trump and this is what will kill the MAGA movement. Trump is right when he says everyone knows him. He isn’t the unknown quantity or maverick he was in 2016. Trump loves the drama and will create it at every turn. This is not something that is good for the reliability and predictability that financial markets and economy need. The Fed will have a say in this election and I predict they won’t pick Trump.
Not sure where the “Weird” thing came from…it’s a Dems talking point. But foolish and angry and loud and obnoxious are all things that the Angry Orange Mussolini Wannabe are certainly gulity of.
The ‘weird’ thing is just a cheap trick –
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbkypX1OhZ0
We are still in the honeymoon phase for Kamala so I am not surprised her polling chances are taking a jump over Biden’s. Would be hard not to.
Let’s see what happens in a few more weeks when the honeymoon phase ends and she has to actually speak in public (debates, rallies etc). None of her flaws there have or are going to go away (she’s still an imbecile who cackles and spews word salads.
As for being black, I asked a few of my black friends if she’s considered black. They all just laughed. Doesn’t mean blacks won’t vote for her, but she’s not considered black by the black community.
As for the slut shaming, the Dems were happy to do it with Trump first. It’s fair game as far as I’m concerned. It’s an open secret she was sleeping with her boss. What happens if Republicans pay some money to get one of them to diss dirt on it or someone happens to have photos/videos etc.
Yeah, sure you have “Black Friends”. Both of them? She was in a Black Sorority at a Black College and living in ATL, there’s a LOT of black people excited here about her. Don’t be surprised when she continues to gain more and more support there. And the Angry Orange man keeps putting his foot in his mouth again and again on the topic.
You need to understand that A LOT of black folks won’t vote for Cali prosecutor that locked up thousands of black men for minor marijuana offense. They won’t forgive so easily. Or who wouldn’t let them out of jail because they were needed for free labor. Isn’t that slavery? Regardless of her being Indian, black, both whatever, her record is something black folks won’t forgive. They call that being a sellout.
lol, honeymoon. It doesn’t take much to see she’s a moron. I thought we’d had enough of that with W.
The real question coming for the Fed is do they want to deal with possibly being dissolved under a Trump presidency and rates being set by the executive branch like Russia or Venezuela. If Fed has the country’s best interest at heart, they should cut rates and prevent a recession at all costs (even higher inflation). Trump simply cannot be trusted not to dissolve much of the government and not have an autocratic approach to government. This never works well because it means an individual not the market sets everything. Let’s think about how that would look under a Trump presidency.
Not “At ALL Costs”…that’s silly. I agree, they should probably have cut rates THIS past month. And should do so again in September. The Fed has historically reacted too slowly and then has to act too strongly because they are LATE to the party. They did on raising rates and QE…now they’re doing it too slowly on dropping rates and leveling off.
I praise Trump’s honesty, he tells Truth, will he get elected? One thing I am sure of, who ever gets elected 50 percent of the population will be angry. Not a good combination with a recession
Agree with everything except the first 4 word. Trump is literally insane.
Try this, just once
Actually read one of his speeches – any one of them.
If you can comprehend anything, he lies so fast, you can’t keep up – and is incoherent as well
That Trump triggers people to this extent is shocking. How can someone you don’t know make people go full tilt like this? The mental illness problem in the US is disturbing.
that is a foolish yardstick, speechwriters write speeches, he just reads the words, and improvises often, because he thinks!!
Trump can easily be Fact Checked and Lies…or just plain makes up stuff ALL THE TIME. If he could just LIE LESS or stop bashing nearly everyone but himself, more people would vote for him. He could be TWENTY Points ahead. But NO…he’s got to say the dumbest stuff.
Honesty???
Praising Trump’s honesty is a sign “…you are part of the problem.”
FWIW, Trump is a terrible human being that already failed once as President. I voted for him in 2016 but not in 2020. He cannot stay away from his worst instincts because he is a narcissist at his core. This is why he keeps making the same mistakes over and over and over. I do expect that some states that are currently polling as red will have higher turnout of Democrats. The most recent polls also show some middle of the road Republicans crossing over and voting for Harris b/c they know her VP pick will likely be a white male and Harris’s husband is Jewish. Harris is perfect candidate b/c she can turn out the vote of some on the left that were either going to stay home or vote for a 3rd party candidate. The latest polling now shows RFK Jr down the low single digits since Harris replaced Biden. He was in the high single or low double digits. That is bad news for Trump.
Republicans will vote for Harris because her husband is Jewish? Maybe democrats will vote for Trump because his wife is Slovenian.
lol, that’s hilarious!!!!
Nah, he got a D-. Biden absolutely failed and since Headboard’s sole job was to ensure Biden is capable of doing his, she gets an F as well. I understand people’s hatred makes them do crazy things. It’s just weird to see a mass Stanford prison experiment escape the lab like this. People are nuts.
i vote with my wallet, you vote based upon personality. nothing wrong with that, but the outcome hurts all of us if you steer your decisions based upon emotions and your feelings
If turnout is as high as 2020, Harris wins in a landslide. But I’ve already heard Trump has placed pollsters in some states that will turn away voters. It is going to be an ugly election day. No one should wait until then to vote if at all possible. We don’t wanna end up like Venezuela. This is what Putin, Maduro and others would love.
How would a pollster turn away voters?
My favorite Pole was Sig SakowitZ.
Maimi-Dade County November 2000, 20kx voters turned away
There will be no landslide. It will be a close race decided by a couple of swing states, just like the last 2 elections
depends how long the breadlines are by then.
This is what hatred sounds like when you feel rage towards someone you’ve never met. Remarkable.
Howard U Asian students : 500 out of 10,800 students. Howard U grad school racial ethnic breakdown : 1,800 black, 180 international, 180 hispanic, 150 Asian, 120 white, 100 multi ethnic and 40 unknown.
Mish, how should I play this with November ‘24 and January’25 stock options trading?
Mish, do you still believe in the long and shallow recession you talked about before? Could long and shallow help the Dems as people see inflation and interest rates declining with only a modest increase in unemployment?
Good question
I think so
Even despite this 0.7 pp rise in the unemployment rate it is historically low.
Intel is getting rid of 15,000 but how many will be buyouts or attrition?
There are over 20 million boomers age 62-65 still working. Many of them will retire some with packages.
What I don’t know how to factor in is illegal immigrants.
If I am wrong, that may be the source of my error.
Trump’s comments during that interview were *brilliant* , true, and cool under pressure. One of few times he’s communicated clearly and completed his sentences coherently. I’ve tuned into a lot of “black” online discussions and they’re loving that take-down and saying same about her. They see correctly her as a pandering fraud.
Yep, I have already seen many vids of black folks asking the same question about Kamala The Chameleon
But they’ll vote for her because her husband is Jewish. /sarc
Nothing the Angry Orange man says is close to bright, much less brilliant. He’s alienating White Georgia Republicans in Brian Kemp and crew. And he’s angering Black / Multiracial people acting like people can’t be two things at once. About as dumb of comments as could have been made.
Today’s London market election odds give Trump a 52% chance of winning versus 45% for Harris. The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866; in 1948 when Truman beat 8/1 odds to defeat Thomas Dewey, and in 2016, when Trump overcame 7/2 odds to beat Hillary Clinton.
Pretty sure Angry Orange man will piss off way more than 4% of the people between now and the election. He just can’t stay on topic for a winning campaign. And he continues attacking other Republicans that won’t show up to vote in November because of those attacks and will just watch him twist in the wind. They’ll vote for downticket but will write in their favorite local republican at the top or leave it blank.
Are his campaign advisors and people THIS bad, or is it really that you can’t tell The Don much?
Harris is possibly the least intellectual vice president in history. She slept her way up the channel. She couldn’t manage to get any support in her own state. Nobody I know (Rep or Dem) like her.
Trump is bad but how is Harris suddenly the front runner? Almost the same way Biden became the Dem front-runner overnight in 2020. He went from almost last to first in 2 weeks.
Seems a little (lot) questionable.
No. Sounds like you don’t know many people. There’s 51% of the people in the US are women. He just keeps pissing off more and more of them of all different colors and creeds. Doesn’t take much to alienate enough of them to LOSE the race.
I think Trump is fascinating as a celebrity. He is exasperating as a politician. I expect nothing from him as a politician because he is so self-destructive. The shame of it is Trump has superman / Teflon strength in handling political attacks. But he destroys any goodwill by attacking with juvenile, misguided criticism those who could be supportive of him.
That said, I don’t think any Republican, let alone independent minded Democrat, can compete on the national stage. The media is so unrelentingly dishonest that any decent politician is steamrolled.
That’s OK he will beat himself into submission. He’s too narcissistic to care what other people think. He could just shut up and WIN. But he WON’T because he wouldn’t get enough attention for his HUUUUGGEE Ego.
It’s still way early and as soon as Kamala opens her mouth, and she will have to, she will also turn off voters.
Because of his big mouth, and sophomoric intellect, Trump is going to go down in history as the guy who lost to a guy with Alzheimers (Biden) and a woman who is the worst possible candidate that Democrats could possibly conceive of (except Hillary). He won’t win because he has 3 more months to say stupid things that make himself look like an inarticulate jack ass. He’s the better choice of the 2, but his inability to act like a mature, reasonable, adult, and say the right thing at the right time, is really troubling. Someone on his side better talk to him and quick, or it will be too late. It probably already is. Thanks Donald, WW3 is on the table and you lose to Kamala Freaking Harris. The country will never forgive you.