O.K. I am open for comments, but keep it civil. I will keep my scorecard up.
If you want to follow the Wall Street Journal Live Blog, that’s a free link.
I will timestamp my thoughts, newest on top.
01:20 AM Nevada
Nevada’s secretary of state said initial results showed Trump with 51% of the state’s vote and 48% for Harris.
“the last voter has voted” but voters can still “cure their ballots,” including many that didn’t match the signature on record. Aguilar said that’s a problem both with younger voters who haven’t settled on a consistent signature and older ones who have changed it over time.
01:17 AM
NYT Needle Trump 95%
Pennsylvania 01:03 AM
90 Percent of Pennsylvania In
Looking hopeless for Harris
Georgia 12:53 AM
NYT Needle 12:13 AM
11:49 Mish
Republicans Definitely Take the Senate
Nebraska holds for Republicans barely, and they flip Ohio and WV.
This does not count Montana
Wisconsin in play
Fox news comments that three Harris campaign officials confirm she is NOT performing as much in key counties as she needs.
11:45 Mish
11:32 Mish
Best News of the Night so Far
Sherrod Brown Ousted in Ohio as Republicans Flip Senate Seat
11:26 Mish
North Carolina to Trump
Assuming Georgia follows, Harris will need a clean sweep of the Blue Wall
Unlikely, judging from returns
11:17 Betting Markets
10:57 Voting by Age Group
Biden lead this Age Group by 20 Points
Hmmm. who was it that has been talking about this age group deciding the election since February
10:44 Nate Silver
UPDATE: We are taking the model down for two reasons. One, it isn’t capturing the story of this election night well. It’s based only on called states and the timing of those calls. So far, all the calls have been predictable. But no swing states have been called, and there is a lot of information it doesn’t capture, information that is mostly good for Donald Trump and bad for Kamala Harris — not the 50/50 race the “called” states might imply. Something like the New York Times Needle is a much better product.
And second, it’s very hard to do real-time debugging with a team of just two people in a real-time election night environment. So, we’re spending a lot of time trying to fix code that isn’t working right — and it’s distracting from our ability to cover the election for you. We think we took on one too many things, and we appreciate your patience.
10:25 Eastern – Virginia
Harris just took a tiny lead in VA
10:15 Eastern – Virginia
Trump hugely outperforming in Loudoun County (near D.C) vs 2020.
Harris now needs to rack up big votes in SE VA to win.
10:01 Eastern – Utah and Montana
Fox calls Utah and Montana for Trump
9:41 Eastern – NC
On Fox, Hannity commented he expects NC and GA will soon be in Trump Column
9:41 Eastern – Georgia
CNN on Virginia
9:02 Eastern Scorecard
This is interesting but perhaps useless. I do not know what counties are reporting.
Nate Silver 8:30 PM . . . New Jersey was called for Harris with 23% of the vote counted. At the moment, it looks like we’re in for a close race. Harris’ win probability is back down to 51 percent.
Mish: make that 50% a minute later.
8:28 Eastern Scorecard
News outlets reporting they’re calling NJ for Harris. In many townships throughout the southern Part of NJ, people are still waiting in line for FOUR HOURS…
8:28 Eastern Scorecard
H/T @ofcrdeonjoseph
“25% of Black men in Georgia voted for Trump. That’s insane. Much higher than I expected.”
Nate Silver 8:15 PM (noted 8:30). . . Lots of race calls, including Florida for Trump right after the polls closed at 8:00 PM. Harris is up to a 53 percent chance of winning in our model.
8:28 Eastern Scorecard
7:42 Eastern – Pennsylvania Trump Odds Jump
There is no point to manipulating the odds now. The election is over.
no matter who wins the American people loose
Even the Communist News Network is gurgling that Trump Won the election!!!!
CNN called PA for trump. 30 minutes later than fox.
I heard the therapy dog van was stuck in traffic so they had to wait
NY Times Needle – 95%chance of Trump victory
Fox Called It For Trump
That big pendulum is swinging hard to the right.
I wonder what happens next?
The womenfolk have to wear Handmaid’s Tale bonnets and learn how to churn butter.
Everyone who got gay married is un-married.
We can call him Bruce Jenner again.
The 19th Amendment is hereby repealed.
Veganism is banned.
No more pressing 1 for English.
No more designated hitters.
I’m okay with a temporary ban on the word, ‘Hitler.’
It looks like Minnesota is going to be really close….maybe even a win for Mr Trump
Muslim voters sending a message to the dem party
The unseen winner tonight is Atlas Intel. Most accurate pollster of 2020 was even more accurate in 2024
The nailed the swing states and quite a few more
Trafalgar good too.
I think I got MI wrong
My Senate calls look pretty good.
Rasmussen was awesome too. They never felt like Kamala was going to win. She was pretty much always 2-4 points behind him.
NBC and Fox call GA for Trump
Harris campaign party goers heading home after the announcement that she wont be speaking tonight
Georgia to Trump
MSNBC has begun their meltdown. Brings back fund memories of 2016.
The giggling Harris accepts defeat. Senator Casey ousted.
Trump to win over 300 electoral college votes and probably the popular vote. We took the Senate by more than 51 seats. Hopefully, we’ll win the house By more than a majority.
Maybe 4 more Senate seats to get them to 55……
Mass deportations ?
Wall?
Dogs and cats living together.
Well congratulations… looks like it wasn’t rigged, after all. Congress too! Let the Golden Age begin, and let us sing the praises of Dear Leader!
re: Senate flips,
Mish: “Wisconsin in play”
Michigan and Pennsylvania Senate seats are in play too. At this point, based on comparison to Trump’s performance in their respective states and NY Times needle prediction of Trump’s final tally in PA, WI, and MI, I think all 3 states are likely to flip Senate seats
If Trump wins the pop. vote he gets CO’s EV’s, right?
North Carolina just called for Trump.
If the Republicans take the Senate, based on the seats up for election coming up in the next 2 cycles, they will most likely hold a majority until 2030.
That means a massive block to anything the Democrats can do…assuming that the remaining RINOS don’t vote with the democrats….
Trump is up nearly 200,000 votes in PA. How many suitcases of ballots is that?
These days they just push a button on a computer in the same manner that they no longer carry suitcases full of cash when they can just electronically create it.
They are stalling until Kier Starmer’s votes are unloaded from the docks.
While everyone’s watching the election, I’ve been watching bond yields spike across the board. You get what you vote for…..bwahahahaha. My favorite 20 year treasury is up 158 basis points!
http://cnbc.com/bonds
The Golden Age is coming brother! Praises to Dear Leader!
How are the fools stuck in houses with 2.75% mortgages doing?
The 10:57 timestamp… I don’t get it.
Popular vote victory as well. Mandate.
Too slim. Would need stronger majorities in House & Senate to advance controversial agenda… though as a moderate I think that might be good.
I am ok with gridlock. I just want Trump to STOP the horrific Biden policies, veto more money for war(grift) and get some executive orders in.
Not necessarily so.
The Dem party left progressive shift has imploded.
There were some Dems abandoning ship such as Sherrod Brown who effectively has lost in Ohio.
Fetterman of Pa. also has taken notice and toned down the Rhetoric.
Dems are in process of losing a prime demographic in younger inner city Blacks, Latinos splitting off and going MAGA.
There will be a move back towards center for many Dems after the Fiasco of Harris comes to its close.
add to clarify: expect less vitriol from Dems and willingness to working towards making Life better for all Americans.
Trump will be reaching cross the aisle and not follow the footsteps of retribution which Dems have pursued.
Even The Enemy Within?
You mean like Pelosi and the gang.
This election will scare the pants off any moderate Dems.They are the ones who know it is over for the Left Progressive Dem party take over.
Dem party will be the party that fractures and those whose views are similar to a RFK jr. or Tulsi Gabbard will be more then willing to distance themselves from the Lunatic wing of Dem party.
I hope you are right, but I think it’s overly optimistic to expect everything to go down so cleanly.
Fetterman is already the face of the new direction for Dems.
My view this was over other then election confirmation for some time.
I understand Jill Biden donned a Red Dress for this night. It was not a Blue one says much.
Sherrod Brown going up like that “controlled burn” in East Palestine.
Republicans need only 2 more Senators for simple majority.
Thanks for the work here
NBC had called Iowa for Trump by a huge percentage
So much for that BS poll….
But But it was the Des Moines Register!!!
Exactly.
Now I could’ve sworn Loudoun was permanently affixed to the hip of the Super-Big Government party, considering how all the sprawling farmland was turned into marble studded mansions over the past 25 years. What would make them go red at a time like this?
I live here, lot of Indies and pakies out here appreciate/respect Trumps Alpha male attitude.
Well, what’s left of the LaRouche Democrats have all gone Trump, for what little that’s worth.
You know, I forgot about the Alpha thing. I suppose I discounted it since the most prominent Moslem politicians in America are hardened female Squad members. In this race, however, there are no Moslems to vote for, and therefore who would they choose: a pro-Israel man? Or a pro-Israel woman? Hmm….
Trend is clear Harris under performing in Blue cities mail in ballots. Will struggle to make up the deficit via walk in vote.
Rural area Red has high turnout.
Harris also failing with Union vote.
10 PM Trump 205 & Harris 107
117 Harris Not 107
well the only observation is that neither candidate is “crushing” it. so much for a blue or red wave….
Uh huh. You said he had no chance a month ago
That’s because it’s RIGGED!
Trump and the Giant Peach …
I see what you did there. lol
North Carolina governor went democrat Josh Stein. The guy who called himself a black nazi is projected to lose.
https://myfox8.com/election-results/
Robinson could have been the Great Uniter, but racists rejected a black man.
probably shouldn’t have called himself a black nazi on a porn site.
MSM probably should have had some evidence before running with the story that tanked the campaign of a black man in the South
He loved ALL people, especially transexuals.
Similar to the Pope; I’ll know the results by the smell of the smoke in my metro area
Gunpower is celebratory (D); wood burning means buildings on fire (R).
Like Timmy’s wife.
300 plus for Trump
Well, here we go…