Note: I changed the title of this post to reflect the live blog status. What follows is the results and my comments as posted in real time.
Exit Poll Results in Full
Translation – It’s All Over
Why? It’s a near certainty the exit polls are at least reasonable.
https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1205243896860729344
What If?
Open Questions
- Will Jeremy Corbyn resign in disgrace?
- How big will the final Tory Majority be?
Sound Familiar?
Congratulations Tories!
Brexit Will Get Done
Congratulations Boris Johnson and the Tories for turning away an incompetent Marxist government led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Time For a Debt of Gratitude
I am going to treat this like a Live Blog and post updates.
Pertinent Ideas from Guardian Live
“The exit poll shows the Conservatives gaining 51 seats in total, but losing potentially 12 of their 13 seats in Scotland. That would suggest 64 gains in England and Wales, which – on an even swing – would mean Boris Johnson’s party smashing Labour’s so called ‘red wall’ running between the Vale of Clwyd in north Wales to Grimsby on the east coast.”
That would really be something. I did expect Tories to do better in Scotland. On the whole though, I would rather Labour get smashed everywhere.
My “Fearless Forecast” had SNP picking up 5 from Labour and 1 from Tories.
My understanding is those Scotland exit polls are within the margin of error. So I do expect Labour to be totally wiped out. Expecting now for Tories to only hold 1-6. My guess now 4 or 5. No supporting evidence. Just a hunch, and 7 would not be a surprise.
Blyth Valley Turns Blue
“The Tories have won the Blyth Valley seat from Labour for the first time since its creation in 1950.”
Unless stated otherwise, quotes are from Guardian Live.
Reason for Fearless Forecast
Comment of the Day
I do not agree precisely but I did say on several occasions that Corbyn made a huge mistake in not honoring the referendum. More recently he even had a chance to accept Johnson’s deal. I pointed that out as a mistake as well.
I still think Labour would have lost, afterall, Corbyn is still Corbyn and still a Marxist. But the result would have been much closer. Perhaps even hung.
US Readers
Many of my US readers hated the amount of time I spent on this.
Sorry, but I wanted to do everything I could to stop a Marxist from becoming UK prime minister.
Key Idea Flashback
I was cheering loudly when fools added an Amendment to Johnson’s Brexit Deal.
He then pulled it.
Then Swinson backed an election.
That was the critical sequence of events and I called it real time.
Election Odds – On the Humorous Side
Tony Blair
Tony Blair’s former constituency – Sedgefield – looks set to be among the tidal wave of Labour seats voting Tory for the first time in nearly a century tonight. Both Labour and Conservative sources say the County Durham seat, which voted to Leave the EU, was likely to change hands as a result of Brexit and the unpopularity of Jeremy Corbyn.
Bishop Auckland Goes Tory
First time in 134 years.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1205289335731499008
Redcar Wow
I am not from the UK – Anyone know these places and how unusual this is?
Johnson Can Do What He Wants
Someone Noticed – Thanks!
https://twitter.com/HCE_6/status/1205299416699199489
Reflections on an Undeserved Victory
Absolute Laugh of the Day
Labour Thanks Nigel Farage for Rare Victory
Good Riddance to Grieve
Another Good Riddance: Chuka Umunna Goes Down
As Expected
Northern Ireland
“Northern Ireland was on course to elect nine nationalist MPs – seven from Sinn Féin, two from the SDLP – and eight unionist MPs, marking a symbolic tilt in favour of those who favour Irish unity.”
This is interesting
As noted, if Sinn Féin does not show up in parliament, it increases the Tory Majority by the same margin.
Sinn Féin did not show up in 2017 and pledged to do again now.
If so, whatever Tory majorities, are announced add 7 to it.
Updated Forecast
Musical Tribute to Jo Swinson
Scotland Finals
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1205368858007224320
Exit polls suggested Tories would lose all but 1 seat in Scotland.
I made this comment hours ago …
Expecting now for Tories to only hold 1-6. My guess now 4 or 5. No supporting evidence. Just a hunch, and 7 would not be a surprise.
6 it was. Labour lost all but 1.
Live Blog Over – New Article Coming Up
With that, the live blog is over. But more election comments in a new post coming up.
Please chime in.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Geee Mish, you didn`t even READ what@Brexitologist posted !!!
Please do will ya ?
Your opinion matters much.
Mish, think Brexit + BoE + EU gold in custody okay ?
After Brexit, the BoE could / should change its policy regarding the RE-patriation of gold claimed by EU members, get it ?
Above you just posted an automatic BS reply that has NOTHING to do with@Brexitologist `s valid comment regarding EU GOLD as in physical G-O-L-D now in (supposed) custody if still at the BoE (is it ?) which, after Brexit, may / should change its policy on this topic.
Get some help, dude. You sound rather hysterical.
sounds like he thought he was logged into his 2nd account, posting to backup his 1st account, but accidentally posted from his 1st account.
either that or he’s confused about 3rd vs 1st-person.
Is Boris’ victory bittersweet?
In Scotland, the pro-independence,
anti-Brexit Scottish Nationalists (SNP) swept the boards.
The final results were SNP: 48 (+13) Conservatives: 6 (-7)
Lib Dem: 4 (-) Labour: 1 (-6). Ten years ago, Labour had over 40 seats in Scotland. Scotland MPs want to stay in the EU.
Similar results in North Ireland:
Results: DUP 8; Sinn Féin 7; SDLP 2; Alliance 1
Northern Ireland elected a majority of anti-Brexit MPs and more importantly for the first time elected more Nationalist than Unionist MPs. Irish MPs want to stay in the EU and a majority do not support staying in the United Kingdom.
The question on the table now is:
Can Boris Johnson hold the United Kingdom (i.e., England, Scotland and North Ireland) together?
Inquiring minds want to know…
In Scotland, it appears that conflating a vote for the SNP with support for independence may be a mistake. A YouGov poll a week or so back predicted both an SNP surge and a DROP in support for independence. I think this is why Sturgeon is already banging on about it: she knows that as soon as there is any sign of a trade deal, her support will flag further.
As for Ireland, I’m sure many English folks wonder why it’s such an issue. Millenials don’t remember the Troubles, aren’t wedded to the “but our soldiers shed blood” arguments and think it looks like imperialism.
Personally as a Scot living in England, I think its time for them to go their own way. They live off my taxes, and are the most racist and intolerant of peoples (the SNATs, I am talking about, not the Scots).
My preferred method would be to detach Scotland from England, tow it in to the Atlantic and let it stew for a few years.
Most Americans don’t understand the difference between “England” vs the “United Kingdom”, so it’s hard (at least in the USA) to get much of a reaction.
All good input – we’ll see where it goes pretty quickly.
My gut says Boris won’t want to see his name in the History Books as the PM responsible for the disintegration of United Kingdom….despite the fact that the citizenry in these countries believe (for right or wrong) that they have different priorities.
Critical question. I see it as the next round of crisis. It is in close relation with the EU, too.
With Labour and LibDems in disarray, the Celtic nationalists will be the only meaningful opposition for some time. And they have solid cases for their limited objectives.
“Can** Boris Johnson hold the United Kingdom (i.e., England, Scotland and North Ireland) together?”
** Should
let’s not frame it as an awful thing if this is what finally leads to an independent Scotland and Ireland.
many predicted that Brexit would lead that direction. saw it all summer long in the comments of Mish’s blog.
To: AJC1970
Re: “Can” vs. “Should” – it’s a fair point, to be sure.
I went with “can” (vs should) because Johnson, as PM of the United Kingdom, is PM over Northern Ireland and Scotland.
I’m not sure if either Northern Ireland or Scotland can simply leave or if there is some level of ‘consent’ required. Just not sure.
Bottom line is ‘can’ vs ‘should’ depends on who holds the power to reset the paradigm. My assumption (probably built on the American experience) is that no part has the authority to leave the whole without some level of acquiescence.
Did some digging and couldn’t find a definitive answer….
Great work, Mish!! Reading your Brexit/election analysis provided an edge versus MSM coverage, which has been in denial throughout. Much appreciated!!!
Indeed. I’ve just registered but I’ve been following this blog for months and months – a ray of hope that Britain might finally see some leadership.
Thanks for the excellent coverage and discussion, Mish. You have been proven generally correct throughout the entire Brexit circus, and about the election as well.
Enjoy your steak Mish 🙂
Farage cost Tories 1 seat. I expected 1-5.
New post coming up shortly. Nearly done.
How many did he save though? There were a few that, on cursory analysis, look like they might have gone to Labour had the BP not been there to wrest voters away.
You were right about the dynamics, that is sure. Lab-Lib tactical voting and the Farage maneuvers did not work in the large majority of cases.
This is a large realignment of the electorate but I don’t think it is over. Without the Leaver Labour voters in poorer areas, the Lab-Lib forces can come together. I don’t like it, but it is a likely outcome. It may be slow though. Corbyn was the last try of the traditional socialist Labour party and he failed. That’s life.
The next round after Brexit is about the EU trade deal, the Scottish and Irish situation. BoJo has the office but the crisis is not over. If we look at global politics, it won’t be over for decades…
Thanks for showing up. I figured you would actually. AvidRemainer disappeared a week ago or so.
The data made it hard to predict and I expected the surprise in the other direction. Too bad for my pride.
I am not directly affected by the result. Indirectly, Brexit strengthens Macron against Germany, so further centralization is afoot in the EU. That is something I don’t want at all, and I was comfortable with further delays. This ship has sailed.
Good comment “Brexit strengthens Macron against Germany”
And remember my comments too, for which I was mocked by many.
I stated Macron worked with Johnson. I believe it’s clear. Without Macron, the EU would have offered another extension, no strings attached.
Yes. The medium-term trend was EU centralization all along, the only question was about Britain inside (with a Remainer coalition giving up all exemptions) or outside (with a Leaver government leaning to the US and possibly shedding Scotland and Ireland). That is settled now.
I was thinking that if Remainers keep the deadlock in Parliament, then they can go for the first option. But the SNP thinks they can get away from the UK under BoJo and the LibDems believed their good poll numbers. The latter belief was an illusion, perhaps even bigger illusion than the echo of 2017 for Labour.
I would love to see a breakdown of what happened to the ~20 Tory MPs who lost the whip in late August/early September for voting against BJ.
I know some regained the whip, some chose not to run.
How many that did not regain the whip but ran for reelection won? How many lost?
I am quite confident that every one of them either stood down or lost. I do not have the names but no independents or Brexit Party members won. I do not know for sure if those who regained the whip won. I suspect nearly all of them did. But I do not know.
Letwin and Hammond choose to retire. Nicolas Soames I think also retired despite having the whip returned.
Gauke and Grieve were both defeated.
When you look at the number of independents elected to the UK parliament their fate was fairly predictable.
Looks like Mish’s prediction is going to be super close. To get within 5 or 6 seats is an extremely good estimation even when a bit of luck is involved.
Very happy with the results and finally we can move on after more than 3 years.
Where the heck is our good friend@avidremainer ?
He’s left. I guess that makes him an avid leaver now.
He went wherever it is people like him and Country Bob go. Hell maybe?
using a different login?
MISH, you’ve made this study in British government more enjoyable than European history I studied in high school, so I learned a few things these past months.
Well, Mish, nicely done, but now that that issue is neatly ‘in-the-bag,’ it’s back to real work:
Just to name a few….
Well done on the election Mish! Now do we get a no deal Brexit? The votes to do it are now there in Parliament. If Labour or the LibDems want to re-open ANYTHING on Brexit, I say re-open EVERYTHING on Brexit. The REAL (now actual) threat to leave with no deal will ultimately result in a much better deal with the EU.
Who will be next to leave the EU Empire?
The EU is a supra-legal construct without territorial sovereignty of any kind. That is to say it is hosted, and so more correct would be to say “eject EU” than “leave EU”. Obviously politicians will tout “membership” so as to sell “benefit” to their nations, but really all they are doing is inviting EU to administer their country.
I strongly suspect Italy
Have posted my reason before
Never mind, the worthless EU circus will be enlarged with countries like Albania, Moldova, Ukraine etc ……Nice future !
“ALL of you dear bloggers are missing what´s REALLY happening, Mish included.”
Good lord@Brexitologist , forgive me for being blunt but I am tired of responding to asinine comments like yours for the simple reason I have done so a dozen times already.
Here’s the short version.
I leave it to you to think this through, but your comment is bullshit.
And addressed repeatedly.
I expect a deal. The WTO allows of 10 full years to settle, if the EU will not agree, then nbo deal. so what?
My expectation is a short delay and a Temp deal with details over the following year. No customs union extension.
Apologies accepted.
Thanks
Mish
Geee Mish, you didn`t even READ what@Brexitologist posted !!!
Mish, think Brexit-BoE-European gold in custody okay ?
After Brexit, the BoE could / should change its policy regarding the RE-patriation of gold claimed by EU members, get it ?
You are just posting an automatic BS reply that has NOTHING to do with@Brexitologist `s valid comment.
I think you have a spammer active here, Mish. Ignore or block, engaging would be futile.
ALL of you dear bloggers are missing what´s REALLY happening, Mish included.
The Brexit end game will not focus on how the UK would be leaving the EU.
Brexit will necessarily affect the BoE´s gold custody policy as nations will want to repatriate their gold, just in case. Examples abound, you know that, don´t you ?
Will the BoE comply though ?
THAT´s the Brexit dilemma, nothing else.
Does the BoE actually have such gold ready for delivery, un-encumbered or non-hypothecated ?
Just asking…
Mish ?
LOL! I’m fairly certain that it’s been re-hypothecated dozens of times. Central banks are very good at that game.
Actually, any foreign gold held by the BoE is probably safe and sound and delivery will be no problem (unless you are Maduro of course). This is not to say that there are no legitimate concerns regarding the London gold market. The weak link in the chain is unallocated gold held by bullion banks in London on behalf of clients. They practice fractional reserve banking with unallocated gold and if there is ever a run on physical gold, there could be a heap of trouble.
The BoE supposedly stores 50% of Germany´s gold with many seriously doubting it´s still there. With the coming Brexitwar and “No Deal” in the cards it´s easy to foresee serious conflict, let alone if gold is priced anywhere near it´s true price.
Undeserved?
Please think.
Corbyn is a Marxist fool. This is the biggest confirmation in history that people can, on occasion, actually think!
It’s time for you to start thinking, Mish. The Conservatives are another globalist (and cultural Marxist) party. They just pretend not to be. And people like you are taken in. You will see what happens over the next two years.
I’m surprised by the strength of the Tory majority, but not surprised that they’ve won. For the past few months this election has been reminding me of the last Australian election where most poll predictions were predicting a Labor party majority. In the end it was a narrow but convincing win for the Liberal-National Party. Prime minister Scott Morrison put his win down to the “quiet” Australian’s who didn’t show up on public echo chambers. I think Johnson’s win is down to quiet British who didn’t show up on online forums or talkback radio or TV.
It’s less “quiet British” and more “seething British”. I’m a Tory, and a leaver. For two decades I’ve been called all sorts of names for the crime of believing in a different future. In the last 3-4 years, mention you are a Tory in polite company and you’ll be derided and marginalised. In the village I live in, which is heavily left wing but in a strong Tory constituency, every Tory poster has been defaced. Every photograph has horns, words crossed out and added. Drive through the Tory parts of the county, and you won’t find any opposition posters defaced.
People don’t express their views because they are afraid to. But inside they are seething against the injustice, the caricatures and the general nastiness.
You fail to mention just how undeserved this victory is – that the arch-traitors should pretend to be patriotic and sweep up all these votes — knowing they’re pushing something very like Theresa May’s deal. I don’t know how long people will take to cotton on. Maybe in ten years’ time, when fisherman are asking why they are still beholden to EU quotas, people will start to realise. Hague said “in Europe, not run by Europe”. Boris’s deal means “not in Europe, but still run by Europe”. A total fake. Even Mish will realise this in a couple of years time.
Mish
I enjoyed the great posts on the UK mess and pending elections as I too was hoping the communists would be defeated. You did an amazing play by play and I encourage you to continue because what happens in the UK from here on is really important.
The conservative remainers who obstructed Brexit…are any of them around?
Most of them Retired.
Those who got the Whip restored will likely be back in.
The rest – undoubtedly burnt toast
Thank You BJ !
Thanks!
I believe John McDonnell reiterated tonight he does not want to be party leader.
That’s good, because he is at least as bad a Corbyn.
Oh good, I missed that.
And he is dangerous, because he has better rapport with voters than Corbyn.
Corbin is no more a “Marxist” than you are.
huge relief from me. I’m so pleased people saw Labour for what they would do to the country – take it back to the Scargill era. Now lets get on with it because an independent union can make its own way. This will be a huge success because Brisitsh people will make it so. I like the Guardian but oh boy they need to screw their heads on by following Corbyn !
I was ridiculed for this idea when I made it
Yes, you were right. It’s also about their extreme policies. Momentum will want to replace Corbyn with John McDonnell but the size of the defeat will make it harder for them to resist moving more towards the centre ground again.
My small Gold holding isn’t doing very well 😀
buy more
There’s a thought 😀
Yup, buy more of it, as an insurance and NOT as an investment for the short term.
Thanks for the outstanding Brexit/Election analysis, Mish.
I agree, outstanding analysis. I read your blog because of your passionate interest in various subjects. There are things you post that I am not interested in, but most I am very interested in. Don’t change what you post because of Country Bob or others who complain they are not interested in a topic. No one is forcing them to read what doesn’t interest them!
Looking like Jo Swinson gets outed – LOL
And what a piss poor campaign she ran too. But we do owe her a debt of gratitude. She is the one who agreed to this election.
Damn all the taunts and lectures I got from@avidremainer and @[Deep Purple] and others these past two months. When do they show up?
Enjoy the victory, Mish. As for the avid remainers, I wish them well in the future, hopefully they adjust to the new reality.
I agree HI, thank you for your coverage Mish and congrats on being even more right than we knew you would be. This is a new day for both the UK and EU, hopefully the EU will begin reforms after questioning why the UK felt a need to leave, of course progressives and socialists never EVER question whether they are right or wrong, and always just double down on ever more restrictive rules that further crush individuals.
The far fringe left is every bit as bad as the far fringe right, maybe we will see this as a start to a trend back to sanity whether you are republican or democrat.
I would like to tell Avidremainer that he has a lot to live for after this election, but the truth is my heart wouldn’t really be in the effort.
Savage
Mish, well done. You’ve stayed the course throughout the elections and been proved right despite all the contrary opinions.
Avidremainer now busy with campaigning People’s Vote 😁
Avidremainer is writing a gracious apology to Mish, no doubt 😉
As was the case after Michael Foot in 1983, Labour will waste another 10 years arguing that their manifesto wasn’t left enough and the unions should be more deeply involved in running the country & the party.
It’s like Groundhog Day.
.
Yes credit to Mish indeed!
I think it’s quite early to call it, but this is exactly what I was hoping for. And praise to Mish for having constantly been correct about the -potential- outcome.
Hope he delivers!
The Brits are lucky, our entertainment extravaganza doesn’t end for another 11 months even though it already feels like it has dragged on for years.
I don’t follow UK politics to anywhere near the extent Mish does, but the Labour/Tory dynamic seems similar to our red/blue one here in the US. One party wants big government, the other party says they want small government but really want big government too. Neither wants to draw attention to the bankers or MIC. Riveting stuff!
Lucky isn’t the word I would ever use to describe Brits.
The similarity between the UK and the USA is the divide. Which has never been this massive, as an increasingly larger group of people reject the agendas that have been pushed on them, with livingstandards and services declining for decades. This is what you get when you betray your own people in favour of mass-immigration.
Like Harry says.
Apart from how well the final Brexit details get handled, which is another year normally, there is a vast domestic agenda that has not been addressed and which is going to be difficult at best to approach. A lot of possibilities with such a majority, but where legislation will be taken, well I for one am wary because the establishment agenda is increasingly for technical management as opposed to a more laissez-faire approach but based on a solid set of principles. The domestic agenda has not been well debated so it is relatively unknown. I also expect some kind of reactionary attempts by the pro-EU crowd. How demands for a new Scottish referendum are handled, how the Scots play their hand, and even if EU takes a hand in this somehow is another theme that will be ongoing.
So these results free the hand of UK government regarding Brexit, but what happens now in UK aside from that is a big question. Same goes for EU, the continent is troubled and there are more troubles due. At least UK will have isolated itself to some extent from those.
The EU remains a powder keg. They papered over the euro area debt crisis with the ECB’s printing press and the TARGET-2 stealth bailout system, but the underlying problems have continued to simmer and have actually gotten worse in some areas (to be sure, there are also a few improvements, as some states have lowered their debt and banks have become slightly less wobbly). The thing is, the “papering over” exercise has come at a big price. How big is yet to be revealed, but negative interest rates and QE for years and years are undermining the economy structurally and eventually a threshold will be crossed and the house of cards will collapse on itself. We cannot measure the economy’s pool of real funding, so we cannot know how close to the point of crisis we are or how bad the damage already is. But when the endgame begins, it will be unmistakable.
😀
( even optimists stopped at 345 ;-), guess full figures are for the morning this side of the pond though)
Happy days. Still only a poll but historically quite accurate.
Maybe having an election ad like this wasn’t the best idea: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQo7vzLpx2Y
Of course people won’t accept this garbage being shoved down their throat. Same with the LGBTQ bullshite.
That depends on how much longer will their elites keep getting away with screwing the native population by importing hostile voters. This is bioleninism.
Hear hear my friend. I just posted something very similar in wording, about 10 seconds ago.
You should check out the the Twitter page of@Conservatives
Fully immersed in cultural Marxism. UK natives just can’t win.
I’d rather not. Twatter is for twats and I’ve seen enough cultural Marxism for a lifetime. I also truly believe we’ve reached the peak of this insanity and slowly, but surely, people reject this obvious bullshit and demand a return to facts and all this noise will just be that…..noise.
How can we have reached the peak when the invasion continues at breakneck pace? And the “Conservatives” will keep enabling it. At some point there will be nothing to save.
A nation can recover from war, economic collapse or even decades of Communism. It can’t recover from demographic replacement. It appears that Tories are fully on board with it.
I was referring to the peak of the diversity, LGBTQ and censorship hysteria. As far as the invasion is concerned, it cannot be sustained. I don’t even dare to think of the longterm implications of this leftwing dictatorship that’s been forced on us. I’m just hoping to see some kind of return to normalcy and people demanding to be put FIRST and an end to said invasion.
But, but, all colors are represented, and showing some well fed peeps is so positive.