I project Democrats win 6 of 7 alleged tossup states. +8 is more likely than +3 in my view.
Mish’s Democrat Senate Calls in Order of Probability
- North Carolina: 99 percent +1D
- Minnesota: 90 percent No Change
- Texas: 80 percent +1 D
- Michigan: 75 percent No Change
- Ohio: 75 percent +1D
- Alaska: 70 percent +1D
- Kansas: 65 percent +1D
- Maine: 60 percent +1D
- Iowa: 49 percent No Change
- Nebraska: 35% No Change
- South Carolina: 35% No Change
- Florida Senate: 15% No Change
That nets to +6 Democrat.
I differ most with Nate Silver on two states, Alaska and Iowa.
He is 57.8 percent on Alaska and I am 70 percent. He is 58.8 percent on Iowa and I am 49 percent meaning Republicans manage to hold on.
That nets to a gain of 6. My next guess is +7 for a clean sweep of every state Cook Political rates a tossup.
+8 is more likely than +3 in my view.
Cook Political
Given the dismal national political environment for Republicans — and the fact that Democrats have multiple scenarios to gain the four seats they need to flip the chamber (of the seven seats sitting in Toss Up, six are held by Republicans) — we see Democrats as the slight favorites.
We are keeping seven races in our Toss Up category as of today because, frankly, we do not know how they will break in the closing days of the election. And after talking to scores of plugged-in strategists on both sides of the aisle who are tracking the races exhaustively, they don’t either. In our writeups for each state below, however, we outline where we see these races trending, which informs our belief that Democrats are better positioned to win the majority than Republicans are to keep it.
The Cook Political tossups states are Maine, Alaska, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, Michigan.
I find Texas, Ohio, and Michigan more than a bit silly. This is what happens when you are stymied by fear of getting anything wrong.
Despite differences on Alaska and Iowa, I concur with Silver on his 80 percent likelihood of Democrats winning the Senate.
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US attacks Qeshm Island in Hormuz Strait tonight
ending messages :
you can’t afford Maralago
beef growers just need to grow more
$2 dollar gas in a couple weeks
look at the terrific reflecting pond
we’re putting up a drone and sniper nest disguised as an arch
oil companies are doing just fine
Hopefully Dems in Congress pick someone other than Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker. I know it’ll be hard to reject a black guy. Can’t they find a different black person who hasn’t sold their soul to Israel?
No they can’t. And this is the proof of total capture of the USA by the Israel lobby. Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz will be deciding everything regarding Israel policy in the house. Regardless of the size of Democratic wave. This is the proof of total capture.
Trump will throw MAGA under the bus and cooperate with the democrats.
I respectfully disagree. Trump has the veto and unprecedented nervy uses of executive orders, encroaching on Congress’s powers. Only the leverage of something really nasty in investigations might pry something loose. maybe about his family. But his history is directly and consistently to the contrary: he never gives in, never admits fault, and so far that has worked amazingly for him. Defiance is his brand.
…before now. He’s a loser. A pariah. Sure he won’t change his stripes…but he’s hated. And a loser. What we all are watching for is his breakdown. His existential crisis and how that plays out. He’s stolen billions. He’s happy with that. But his brand and his name are his sickly binky. What happens to his brand now…total collapse.
Maybe the worst word he fears in the English language: Loser. How he’s going to deal with that will be interesting. He’s already not dealing with it very well rambling on and on today. Having put himself on the ballot it’s going to sting. But my guess is he’ll say something like “We did much better than they predicted. They predicted we would lose like 50 or a 100 in the House and 10, 20, or even 30 in the Senate. Cause that’s what happens in the midterms. The party in power loses. But we lost way less than they predicted. Like less than any midterm in American history, by a long shot . It’s not even close. No one’s ever seen anything like it. So in the end we were winners cause you always lose in the midterms but we lost way less.”
They cheated. The elections were not fair. Lots and lots of illegals voted. That’s why they didn’t pass the SAVE act. Lots of things he will say. The establishment Republicans will have to figure out a way of this wilderness because if they can’t actually win, who will pay them? The only reason for its existence is to make sure moneyed interests win and hold power.
Those moneyed interests have largely shown they, like. the parties they pay, are quite mercenary. They’ll hop on a new bandwagon (and it will accept them) on a dime. Remember the peak of ESG/DEI right before Trump showed up? Big investment firms pressed environmental programs on energy corporations, corporations had internships for nonwhite employees, there was pressure for more women on corporate boards, etc. They hesitated, but as soon as Trump appeared firmly in power, most of them bent the knee, or made new friends, or whatever. Big tech was huge along these lines.Trump’s threats,of course, helped.
Trump’s hat trick was to attract the less-educated in mass numbers, for those moneyed interests’ ultimate benefit. It was a twofer.
Meanwhile Trump is still talking about his White House renovations. As if anyone cares. Still talking about a deal with Canada and an end to the Iran war. Donald, no one believes you $)5anymore. You are the child molester who cried wolf.
His simps are overjoyed at the grandeur of Dear Leader.
they are hoping for an invitation to the first ballroom dance. like retarded cinderallas.
Paging Darline Graham and the mother from that Ohio commercial. These are people they put out front. Sheesh.
so dumb to prop up that idiot. i lived in SC for an awesome decade. Strom was 100 and they wheeled him out almost dead to swing the gavel on the committees he chaired and brought home the bacon.
The Decorator In Chief King lives for Show and Tell…
I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to proclaim at some point…
to have personally rearranged the deck chairs on the Titanic.
you better ready the firetrucks if the d’s don’t win out.. 🤖
maybe even an insurrection riot, in the us capitol ?
A Trump nuclear strike on Iran could shake up election day
https://news.antiwar.com/2026/11/02/tucker-carlson-says-trump-is-considering-a-nuclear-strike-on-irans-pickaxe-mountain/
if trump wanted total chaos and rioting on election day, he just has to turn off all the idiot boxes in pax dumbfuckistan. potus comacho
What is capital of dumbfuckastan? Oh ya Washington DC
aye aye
A moronic convergence of historic proportions, but the Dems way well do their best to rival it, if they get enough branches of government at once. Luckily for now, it looks more like gridlock. I’ll take it.
Pretty exciting to see the final prediction and then we’ll see how it plays out in, hopefully, a couple of days.
I predict there will be at least one “Didn’t see that coming” (not meaning by Mish). Like SC or FL.
I predict:
1. I will need to restock popcorn come Wednesday
2. I will receive less political ads in the mail that go straight into the recycle bin and never come inside
3. I will stop seeing delays in receiving mail I actually care about.
FDT
Oh please let it be SC. I could capture a rabbit in my backyard that would be more qualified to serve in the Senate than that Darline Graham character.
I hope you are correct as gridlock would be much better than what we have now with a deranged tyrant in the white house who has already threatened to overturn the election if it goes against his wishes. He has apparently appointed himself as dicatator in chief, in addition to his existing title of grifter in chief.
Well said, Tony. Well said.
Gridlock as we have known it in the past would be pleasant. Trump has taken to Executive Orders like a fish to water. He will block all Dem efforts. He will pardon all his fellow criminals. He will until he leaves destroy everything he can and steal everything he can. Here’s the thing… everyone expects the Dems to fix him. Everyone expects the Dems to save America. It’s not possible. At best, we try to offset him. Problem isn’t the Dems…it’s that 77 million Americans are fascist inclined. Bigots. Racists. Misogynists.They will be here, well after Trump is in his urn. As they always have been.