No tossups every race called.
My baseline assumption all year was Democrats would win nearly all tossup seats.
But the number of tossups kept changing.
The above chart is from Cook Political with my highlights.
Four Days Out, a Dozen More House Races Move Toward Democrats
On October 30, Cook Political commented Four Days Out, a Dozen More House Races Move Toward Democrats
While Democrats won’t reach the 257 seats they had following President Barack Obama’s election — a high water mark for them this century — they could surpass the majorities they had following the 2006 and 2018 blue wave cycles.
We’re now projecting that Democrats will flip 12 to 25 seats, giving them as many as 240 seats in the House. Under the updated ratings, if Democrats win the seats they’re favored in, along with all 18 Toss Ups, they would have 240 seats.
This evening, I reviewed all the tossups. My last forecast was 16-2 on tossups. Now, I am 18-0.
And I added two more seats in Cook Political’s Lean Republican to the Democrat Column. That’s a net change of +4 since my last forecast.
As a bonus, watch FL-07 and FL-13. Those are potential Democrat pickups that I am officially leaving in the Republican column.
I am unlikely to get everything right here.
If the Blue Wave is bigger than I expect, we are going to see more Lean Republican and perhaps even Likely Republican seats drop.
I expect that to happen actually, but I have no way of predicting them. But even in a strong wave, not every upset is in the same direction. Final Call Democrats 243
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October 25, 2026: Mish Fearless House Forecast: Democrats 239 vs Cook Political 227-237
November 1, 2026: Late Breaking Midterm Election Polls Favor Democrats in 7 States
If FL-09, FL-07, and FL-13 all break to Democrats (only Fl-09 is my call), the Florida gerrymander will result in -3 for Republicans. I have -1 right now.
