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MishTalk TV Episode #1: Is Inflation Transitory or Not?

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7 comments on MishTalk TV Episode #1: Is Inflation Transitory or Not?

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Transitory or Not? 

The great debate is whether or not inflation is transitory. 

I discuss the pros and cons with Chris Temple at the National Investor. 

Chris is primarily in the “not transitory” camp, especially in regards to energy.

I discuss the “it is transitory” case. 

In  my view, much depends on what Congress does or doesn’t do and I do not think the matter is settled, depending of course on the duration of “transitory”.

Underreported Inflation

We certainly have had a huge and underreported bout of inflation not accurately measured by the CPI. 

The CPI factoring in housing and medical is much greater than the reported CPI. 

My last report had year-over-year CPI at 8.57%. For discussion, please see Housing Adjusted Real Interest Rates Sink to a Record Low -8.5 Percent.

In case you missed it, China is the new story since that  we created that video. 

For discussion, please see Huge Credit Stress Starting in China May Easily Rock the Whole World

The bursting of bubbles is not inflationary.

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Mish

Mike Shedlock

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7 Comments
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numike
numike
4 years ago
3 Inflation Scenarios: How Bad Could It Get? Investors could see either a 1970s-style double-digit ripsnorter, a return to a more normal level, or something in between.https://www.ai-cio.com/
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StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Inflation will go on as long as those it steals from, simultaneously have anything left to steal, and remain ignorant enough to acquiesce to the theft.
In the US, the victims are increasingly destitute enough to no longer be able to feed the rackets. The main sources of wealth stolen by inflation is now foreign. People abroad are still acting as if America in particular, but also The West in general, still have something of value to offer them in return for their work. Not just, as is reality, simple printed promises, backed up by nothing more than memories of a bygone era, when they actually did.
Desperately attempting to militarily destabilize everywhere, in order to fool those living there into believing “we” are somehow needed to help save them from scary hobgoblins in their midst; is one way The West is attempting to prolong the underlying delusion of their own relevance. That may work in some places, for some time, but it doesn’t take too long for people to realize what they are dealing with, is just a clueless bully and a paper tiger. Then, they’ll just ignore “us.”
And being ignored, not being “fought”, “threatened,” “attacked” blah, blah; is the ultimate end of the line for the no longer useful. Once “The Chinese”, and everyone else, get over the inferiority complexes they developed back when they truly were “inferior”, they’ll just route around “us.” And since we are no longer able to produce anything of value ourselves; that’s the end of the line for living large off of nothing more than empty promises. Hence, the end of the line for the easy victims of debasement theft which are necessary for a policy of inflation theft to be sustained.
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anoop
anoop
4 years ago
the fed 4-step plan to deal with inflation leaked.
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Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
I enjoyed the podcast. I think the thing to get here…… is that we can have inflation in wages, food, energy, insurance costs, etc. at the very same time we see certain well-understood deflationary forces at work, pushed by the demographics of our aging population and by technological advances.
I bet on inflation in housing a long time ago and I was right….., and even if we have a huge deflationary smack-down in the stock market, I really do not expect houses in desirable markets (read cities with good jobs) to suddenly get really cheap. I just don’t think it will happen. Correction yes, but not like we’ll probably see in some over-valued equites.
Now I’m going to bet on energy companies, which I think are poised to benefit mightily from green energy policies and much higher demand than most people are looking for, going into the future. Maybe I can buy them really cheap in a crash….and I will, if I can.
Inflation can be made to happen by the Fed, and it is part and parcel of the kind of financial repression necessary to prevent the government from going broke over their many unfunded promises. It doesn’t have to be hyperinflation. It only needs to be a few points higher than the CPI.
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vanderlyn
vanderlyn
4 years ago
great job.   very informative.  i like the new platform for conveying your thoughts with others.   keep up the good work.   
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anoop
anoop
4 years ago
this too shall pass, everything is transitory.  the dollar itself is transitory.
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Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Not a word on (massive) debt load across ALL sectors?
As direct fiscal stimulus ends + end of rent moratorium + end of loan forbearance (except for student loans which was kicked till 2022) demand will crater near term.  Inflation (overall) will prove transitory short term.  Mid / long term?  That will depend on legislative / monetary decisions not yet made.
No offense, Chris, but you don’t understand the bond market*.
*hint: it has to do with Return OF Capital.
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