Missing US Trade Report Data – When and Where Is It?

Balance of trade data is a key component of GDP. It’s temporarily suspended.

We are still having serious delays with reports long after the government shutdown ended. Trade reports are hugely lagging.

I went to update my charts today on advance trade data but no go.

Grok created the lead graphic for me. Thanks Grok. That explains the word change on the lead chart from your to my.

I am closely following trade data because I think March, and perhaps February will be disasters.

January Trade Data

My view is that January trade data, especially imports, were weak because importers held back waiting for the Supreme Court tariff decision.

On February 20, the Supreme Court ruled against Trump. Then the International Trade Court mandated refunds.

I now expect a surge in imports reversing the January numbers.

Given typical 20–36 day ocean transit + clearance, the real “mad rush” import catch up lands mostly in March data.

This Friday, we see advance trade numbers for February. Nothing will surprise me here. But GDPNow will not use that number

On April 1, we have the full international trade data that GDPNow will look at. That data is for February. So take any GDPNow change on April 1 with a big dose of salt.

I expect the full brunt of imports to hit in March with perhaps a bit of spillover into April. Thus, I expect GDPNow to be skewed on the high side until the full March trade data release.

For discussion and graphs, please see GDPNow First Quarter GDP Estimate Sinks to 2.0 Percent. Still Too High?