Harris is ahead in recent polls. Nate Silver has the odds of a Harris victory going the other way. Why? 
Here’s a Nate Silver Bulletin Public Snip.
Last update: 4:30 p.m., Wednesday, August 28: Maybe a little bit of an RFK effect after all? Kamala Harris’s lead peaked at 4.3 points in our national average the day Kennedy dropped out — and now it’s down to 3.5 points in the now RFK-less version of our model. That’s not bad, but with the convention bounce adjustment the model is applying, the November forecast is about as close to 50/50 as it gets.
The polls for Harris have been pretty good.
But the polls need to be better for Harris because of the convention euphoria bounce. Is it fading?
Nate Cohn at the New York Times is asking the same question.
Here’s a gift link to Will Harris’s Lead Last? A Few Questions That Will Shape the Answer.
Kamala Harris has wrapped up an extraordinary month.
In that short time, she’s completely transformed the 2024 presidential election. She leads in most national and battleground state polls, and the real-world signs of the enthusiasm for her candidacy are everywhere, from filled-up stadiums to record-setting campaign contributions.
But this extraordinary turnaround wasn’t just about Ms. Harris. It was also about voters’ immense dissatisfaction with a Biden-Trump rematch, which had brought anxiety and dismay to millions. In an instant, Ms. Harris’s candidacy offered these voters what they had been yearning for: something new, different and more hopeful than that dreaded rematch. It uncorked years of pent-up Democratic enthusiasm. It let Ms. Harris bring the joy back.
Is this just a bounce?
Ms. Harris has made a good impression, but has she made a lasting impression?If there’s a risk in her current numbers, it’s that she’s riding a polling “bounce” — a political sugar high, fueled by positive but unsustainable event-driven media coverage.
Here’s what we know: Views of Ms. Harris aren’t set in stone. A CBS News poll before the convention found just 64 percent of registered voters said they knew what she stood for. That’s what presented the opportunity for her to redefine herself over the last month. It also means it’s not safe to assume her position is durable today.
Can Trump redefine Harris?
Ms. Harris didn’t just improve her standing over the last month; Mr. Trump and the Republicans failed to define her in a negative light.
Here’s a bit of what the Republicans and Mr. Trump have tried:
- She’s a D.E.I. hire
- She only recently became Black
- She’s Comrade Kamala: a radical communist
- She laughs like a lunatic
- She’s “kama-kameleon,” whose positions change depending on her surroundings
- Nickname: Kamabla (I believe this is supposed to be pronounced “Kama-blah” — as in, she’s “blah”)
- Nickname: KamalaCrash (she causes markets to crash)
- Her crowds are A.I.-generated
- She’s phony and Canadian
- She’s not smart
Personal attacks. For the most part, they’ve fallen flat. There’s one obvious reason: These attacks don’t really strike at her integrity.
One reason “Comrade Kamala” hasn’t landed: Ms. Harris is not a hero of the activist left, like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. She did embrace many progressive positions in 2019, but she did so to earn the support of the left — not because she’s its natural champion. Indeed, her campaign was criticized for not clearly standing for much of anything.
Attacks on her consistency. The public may not see her as Comrade Harris, but it does see the case for “Kama-kameleon.” A majority of voters in the last Times/Siena polls agreed that she flip-flops on the most important issues.
Attacks for not actually representing change. Over the last few days, there’s been a new line of attack: She’s just more of the same failed Biden-Harris administration policies.
There’s no funny nickname or New York Post headline to go along with this attack so far, but its importance is obvious. Unlike the others, it goes to the heart of her early strength in the campaign: the notion that she represents change
In the last Times/Siena battleground polls, half of voters said she would bring “the right kind of change” for the country, slightly more than said the same for Mr. Trump. Whether Ms. Harris’s strength rests on firm ground depends in part on why, exactly, voters were so dissatisfied with Mr. Biden and the state of the country. It’s been a central question all cycle, and even without Mr. Biden at the top of the ticket, it still has the potential to decide the election.
Name Calling and Playground Bullies
Name calling has not worked and will not work. If that sounds like what I have been saying for months, it is because that is what I have been saying for months.
Trump acts like a playground bully. And the only people who like that message are those who don’t give a damn what Trump says or how he acts.
The undecided and switchable voters as well as those who will sit this out are unlikely to suddenly start liking a bully unless the bully switches tactics, Harris makes equal or worse errors, or something major gets in the way.
There is still time left for all of those to happen.
The Debate Over Debates
It is amusing that Trump wanted the microphones on in the debate with Biden but came out ahead because they were off. Now Trump wants the mics off and Harris wants them on.
Why?
That should be easy to figure out. Harris figures she can control herself but Trump won’t.
If both sides don’t interrupt each other there is no need for the mics to be turned off.
Recession
My base case is a recession has started. It may be a weak one or a stronger one that does not pick up much steam until after the election.
But young voters are angry, and they have plenty to be angry about.
I discussed this earlier today regarding the American dream.
The Not Affordable American Dream
Please consider The Not Affordable American Dream in Three Pictures
The American dream, of buying a home and raising a family is all but dead for many Americans, especially generation Z.
Recession Has Arrived
August 20: Improving the McKelvey Recession Indicator, No False Negative or Positive Signals
Adding the job vacancy rate to the McKelvey (Claudia Sahm) recession signal eliminates false negatives and false positives, and provides a much faster signal than Sahm.
August 20: The Share of People Seeking a Job Is the Highest Level Since 2014
A New York Fed survey shows a huge increase in the percent of job seekers. It’s especially pronounced for those making less than $60,000.
August 8: Trump Fires Arrows Missing the Target Badly, Will a Recession Save Him?
I don’t know the answer to that question, and nobody else does either.
Since February, I have been posting that young adults, renters, and Blacks will decide the election.
Those are the groups most left behind in the current housing mess.
The Democrats will find a way to win, one way or another. They will certainly cheat and if that won’t work they and the Deep State will make sure Trump gets bumped off.
There’s a lot of States and State legislatures that are NOT going to swallow that twice. Once may have been a “fluke” (it wasn’t, but benefit of the doubt given), twice is a deliberate assault on the Constitution.
IMO, it isnt a bounce but a switch in candidacy that is back to the 2020 baseline case but slightly closer electorally. I fully expect this election to be decided by the Supreme Court which likely means Trump wins. Why ? Because he appointed the judges that will make the decision. Our system is so corrupt that is needs to burn. If you thought January 6th was bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet. There will be consequences no matter what the outcome of this election is. I fully expect Washington to burn either in January or on inauguration day.
“My base case is a recession has started.”
Ah! That makes sense. This was published yesterday before this morning’s revision of solid 2.8% Q2 GDP was revised higher to 3%.
How can you continue to maintain that a recession has started under this level of GDP?
Okay, I get that the employment numbers are subject to big revisions, in part because they’re based on surveys initially which are then reviewed further for accuracy. But Q2 GDP isn’t going to get revised to negative, right?
No. Everyone gets to make up their own definition of what a recession is and try to find the data to justify it. Things like GDP are no longer relevant.
It’s funny how the NBER scrubbed their explicit 5 things they look with an over minimum 2 QTRs with something that’s a good bit vaguer. I guess they did this to include the COVID recession that really only lasted 8 weeks at most.
As the ruling classes are getting less and less competent, intelligent and able to comprehend anything at all; ever increasing arbitrariness is how they continue to stay “in charge.”
By now, even 2+2 is redefined to mean: ‘whatever some illiterate imbecile at Goldman needs it to be, in order to prop up the retard’s delusion that he somehow “makes” the unearned money that The Fed and Junta stole from his betters and handed to him. That’s America.
American democracy is now going into the third election in a row where voting is predicated nothing at all except who you dislike most ! Biden campaigned from his basement, Kamala is no where to be seen in public discourse. And Trump is a playground bully ignoramus who appeals to the vain hope that he will bring down the establishment that has captured American polity.
The reality of American democracy (with their famous lack of elections integrity) cannot form a starker contrast with the bedrock national identity religion.
It has always been a choice of a lesser of two evils. Neither party can be trusted. There is really only one party left. The other one is just controlled by an individual who is a convicted felon. The founding fathers never saw far enough ahead for this situation. This is why you don’t let less than 10,000 people from a handful of states decide who wins and who loses. That is not a democracy or even a representative democracy or republic. At this point, I would just be fine with Trump taking over and trying to make America an autocracy and fail miserably and bring down the country with him. This is what the system needs before it can truly be a democracy based on popular vote.
Problem is: For all practical purposes: 1) The country is an autocracy. And this has already brought it down. 2) Trump = Harris. +- <3%. She’s 3% more of a btch. He’s 3% more of an ahole. And that’s it, as far as meaningful differences goes.
I do get the gist of your argument. We are now as low as we can go. At least without literally being on the receiving end of Putin’s entire arsenal. So yes: ANY change is at the very worst a sideways move. Even handing half the government to Hamas, and the other half to ISIS (checks and balances), would be a clear improvement vs either current, Harris or Trump. Only _possible_ exception being the nuclear deterrent. Not 100% sure about those two as far as responsible nuclear stewardship goes. But for anything else, heck yeah! Sure can’t be worse than what we are currently stuck with.
Nate Silver has been high on his own supply for a while. He’s been over his skis for years but the insiders love hearing him opine.
Agreed. Somebody check his bank account for transfer payments from Google, Zuck, DNC or maybe even the Big Guy.
No one believes the polling outside of DNC hq.
US election polling is an extension of big tech, and as such is not trustworthy. I would no more believe a poll from Nate Silver, 538, Rasmussen, Fox News, ABC News, Newsmax et al any more than I would believe Mish will vote for either Trump or Harris.
Trump will lose the election guaranteed. Take that to the bank. However, it will have less to do with his mouth, narcissistic ways than the fact that the entire system is now aligned against conservative politic speech.
The only question is when will conservatives & reasonable minded independents wake up and take action?
The next Trump in 2028 who somehow is prosecuted via lawfare? 50T in national debt? 50M illegals? NYC / SFO levels of crime in most major US cities? Sustained 5% or higher inflation? Median home price of 750K? Attempt to stack SCOTUS? National ban of AR style weapons? US law that mimics the EA Digital Services Act that massively infringes on free speech? A middle east war or a president who hands China the keys to Tiawan?
Well, that’s a lot! I do agree with one thing though. I think Trump just might lose.
I think Trump
just mightwill lose.National polls mean nothing. You only need to watch the 7 swing states to figure out who will win. If Trump repeatedly attacks the Biden/Harris record on immigration, inflation, etc. then he should edge it. This election is gonna be tight
If Trump only squeaks by, after the absolute trainwreck that was the Biden administration, then Republicans and all Americans are screwed after 2028. Trump isn’t going to be able to accomplish much, and will likely inherit a long overdue recession, but at least he might stave off the demons (no point calling them anything else anymore) and their ruinous plans for four years, and reset a few things. But after that, we’re right back to 50/50 politics, with the Dems having all the advantages (and lack of shame).
IF polls and everyone else underestimates him by HALF as much as they have in the last two election cycles, he has 270 under his belt right now.
When Trump continues to do stupid shit such as:
US Army rebukes Trump campaign for incident at Arlington National Cemetery | CNN Politics
it makes sense to look for a toss up poll for some comfort.
Wait, is this the same spokesman that works for the same SecDef that should have been fired for his complete failure to ensure America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan went according to plan and didn’t kill 13 Americans? Or the same SecDef that didn’t tell his Commander in Chief that he was having surgery and couldn’t command the military?
Forgive me for thinking the obvious that DoD spokesmen are just mouth pieces of the Harris-Waltz campaign.
At least Trump was there. Where was Brandon? Vacation for 2 weeks?
Trump shouldn’t even be allowed to get close to a military cemetery. The “suckers and losers” at Arlington Cemetery are probably still turning in their graves.
Lost somewhere in your analysis is that Trump has always outperformed his polls in 2016 and 2020. The worst one was having Biden up 10 in Wisconsin in 2020, and he barely eked out a win. If the polls are showing a tie, then Trump should win the EC easily if not the popular vote. Are you in praise of Kamala for her basement strategy ?? You would go mad if Trump was hiding out for 39 days before granting an interview accompanied by his Vice President on Fox News.
All Mish is doing is putting absolute trust in polls. In my view, that’s not a good idea, but he runs the blog and writes the articles.
Progressive wing should be reminded that Harris head headed black male youth for jail to pad her stats. She also extended jail time so they could hang out more license plates for the state(or work for Cal Fire during wildfire season). She is essentially the black lady who would have sold black slaves to slave traders. My neighbor, a mixed race black man, HATES her. I think generally all black males hate her-she is a fraud to that community.
While yukking it up on The Breakfast Club about her own use of a then-illegal substance.
I worked a brief stint for a friend who was a black councilman here in LA in 2011-2012. We had lots of issues to work on but this one was the most heartbreaking. We were trying to rescue elderly black homeowners whom had been pressure sold rapacious loans with a 6 figure final balloon payment. It was horrific, some had to temporarily live in their cars after being foreclosed on. Kamala Harris’s office was unresponsive to any attempts at my friend to contact them to discuss the problem. My friend the black councilman was livid and had zero use for Harris afterwards calling her Wall Street’s b!tch..
“My friend the black councilman was livid and had zero use for Harris afterwards calling her Wall Street’s b!tch..”
But other than some pointless namecalling: He no doubt continued to be a good indoctrinate spewing trivially nonsensical and 100% idiotic drivel about “we” “needing” to “save the syyyystem”, and “America is the bestest” blah, blah. Except for,like, you know, like,that one bitch and,like,you know….
Can’t make this sheer level of absolute, full stop, pure idiocy up.
I’ve ordered another 50K ‘Make America Suck Again’ bumper stickers. At $5 apiece, I’m selling 7,000 a day.
I like the “more of the same” attack. She’s part of the current administration.
Her first name should be Biden
She was literally coronated by the establishment. She’s already been part of the current failed executive administration. Anyone who believes she is going to change anything has rocks for brains.
Housing costs are primarily a regulatory problem.
LA started waiving most permits for affordable housing construction – and is seeing a boom in construction.
https://calmatters.org/housing/2024/02/affordable-housing-los-angeles/
Do you think California needs to change its zoning policies and allow more multy familty housing?
Its single family zoning rules are a part of the problem
Do you agree?
The ADU laws in California now allow people to do quite a bit on their “R-1” lots. SB-9 is similarly impactful (even more so in ways), but SB-9 requires you to have a lot with a fair amount of room before you can really exploit it. R-1 zoning is all but dead in California.
The issue in California is not housing supply its not the housing people need. It’s all market rate or higher
Yeah LA just got fined $38 mil by the Feds for lying about how much low income housing was built, actual was wayyy less than reported
There is no national housing market. Each areas has its issues. In LA, zoning related to strip clubs and pot dispensaries and liquor stores have created a mess across the city. The city council has refused to deal with this, party because they are distracted with all of the FBI prosecutions and racism of the city council members themselves.
The problems in SF are completely different than LA.
Here’s a bit of what the Republicans and Mr. Trump have tried:
9 OUT OF 10. WHAT’S THE PROBLEM??
The problem is YOU are the problem and cannot think even though I spelled it out for you.
Ok..
I don’t understand the total dislike you have for this guy.
I really dont care if the man can be an arrogant loud mouth jerk most of the time but currently he is the only one out there that is looking out for Americas best interest
The DNC should be registered under the FARA act.
Voting is more simplified than that (Ideas Defined): it comes down to party.
Currently one party is favored by working people and those of modest means. The other party is favored by eggheads and drag queens.
Is Harris anything other than an actress? Or the way her campaign hopes it goes, a silent film actress. No policy, no real success in the current admin. Keep your mouth shut and let media put lipstick on that pig? But now look, its the Kammy and Tim show! She’s a team player! Maybe it takes a village to steal an election. Low probability event this go around. She keeps sliding in the polls from here to election day.
So what does Harris have to offer young people and minorities.
“Hi I’m from the government and I am here to Help”
This pablum of failure wears thin on those with their lives ahead of them and the desire to make something of that Life.
I think that we need to bring ourselves back to a time when Government was NOT THE GREAT FATHER, the LEADERSHIP there to bail us out of issues. Think back to the days when people owned a Farm, had Barn-Raisers, tended to crops and Animals and lived. There was not a constant sorrow about what the LEADERSHIP WAS COOKING UP FOR VOTES.
DON’T WE JUST WANNA LIVE without the CROOKED LEADERSHIP DEAD HEADS?
Thought in my mind is what are the young people expecting from their lives which stretches out before them.
Looking back in 30 years, whoa I spent all that time sitting in a waiting room so as to meet a government councilor who can steer me towards my next Government handout.
That is about as depressing an outlook a person can think of.
I do not buy into what is being packaged up and sold as a solution by Washington DC as it is currently formulated.
I do not believe young people want that either and believe they will throw off that yoke which has been placed upon them by the Administrative state.
If there is not a campaign add in this statement then truly GOP is a party without ideas.
“So what does Harris have to offer young people and minorities.”
Exactly the same as what current day America has to offer them: A big, fat nothing. Or, more realistically: A whole lot less than that. Heck, truth be told: As far as black youth in concerned, it’s no longer in any way a given, that it offers more than pre Civil War. And that is a pretty low bar….
Can Trump insult his way into the White House again? Most Americans live above the standard of constant ad hominems. Most Americans want more than a playground bully for a President. Will it be enough? As they say in friendly Minnysoda: “You Betchya”
Rando, Government is the ENTERTAINMENT DIVISION for Big Pharma, Big Military, Big Lawyering, Big Schools, Big Commerce, Big Insurance and BIG EVERYTHING THAT LOBBIES IT. THEY MEAN NOTHING. THEY ARE NOTHING.
THEY’RE WALKING COLLECTION BOXES.
Most American’s wants a president who can do more than Kackle.
Do you mean Insult examples like:
Hitler
Rayciss
Putin Stooge
Cheeto
Womanizer
Fraud
I guess in your book those would be what, compliments?
I laugh at name-calling, when they hit the target and are TRUE, as do most people.
When they are lies, they aren’t funny, and they don’t stick.
“Most Americans live above the standard of constant ad hominems. Most Americans want more than a playground bully for a President.”
How quaint…
Should read ” Umpteen billions in propaganda keeps Harris in the race “
Are the Republicans poor? Elon Musk controls a social media platform and he’s a billionaire. So is Trump.
With that said, why don’t the Republicans spew propaganda?
In my view, the Republicans are feckless and don’t play to win. They’d rather play the victim role, whine, and complain.
Democrats are the Party of STUPID IDEAS.
Republicans are the Party of NO IDEAS.
You got that right.
Generally that is right. But there is once in a while a rare good idea. The rule of is that for every good idea in the universe there are a thousand that are stupid.
…And America is the union of those two……
Silver’s prediction is nonsense, a lie or based on delusions. The ONLY way the Democrats can win is by cheating. It’s their plan to do so. Pretending the Democrats want a fair election is beyond ridiculous. This prediction and the polling is just part of their game. Stop with the BS please.
Good balanced article – thanks Mish.
**Point of view from an Italian:**
Harris, a communist: ROFL. Trump doesn’t even know what communism is. Stop making a fool of yourself by talking about things you don’t know. Communism is in China and Russia. Putin, besides being a nostalgic communist, is also a mafioso, and as an Italian, I understand very well what that means. If Trump lived in Russia, by now he would have already been killed by the same person he publicly praised (Putin). Not coincidentally, Putin was very good friends with Berlusconi, another mafioso president of that banana republic known as Italy. If Trump doesn’t understand these things, he’s either acting in bad faith, putting his own interests ahead of those of Americans (Trump first), or he’s simply an idiot.
exactly correct. i vote in italia and 2 amerikan states, …………amerikans are nitwits. i should know, i’ve lived among them for over 6 decades. it’s idiocracy here.
I stopped trying to tell people that they don’t know the first thing about fascism and communism when it was clear most of my fellow Americans would rather stick their heads in the sand and have a national rock fight over the color of the President’s party, blue or red.
anyone hearing about covid school closures?
Is someone writing about the history of 2020-2021? Otherwise, Nope.
FOX has been beating on her daily and they have a lot of ammunition to work with. In fact, there is plenty of ammunition for the other side with both of these candidates.
The Dems are betting on two things:
1-People concerned with the right to abortion will go with Harris
2-She’s NOT Trump.
These are Harris only two advantages.
As I have said, if the Republicans had chosen a normal candidate who didn’t carry the baggage that Trump does, Harris would be a loser equal to or worse than Humphrey in 1968.
You are correct on what the Dems are betting on although I would argue “She’s not Trump” is reaons 1-99. Abortion being #100 and oddly makes no sense because SCOTUS has ruled it’s a state matter so not sure why they think they are preventing something against Trump or think they can go back to federally-protected access by voting Harris. I guess if they believe that maybe it’s closer to 90% Not Trump, 10% baby killing–they cheered it up until the moment of birth in Minnesota so the Walz pick is on brand.
Where I disagree is that, if the Republicans return to the George W Bush/Mitt Romney/John McCain type Republicans in 2028 then they a) will have learned nothing and b) don’t need my vote because there is almost no distinguishable difference as they are the Uniparty. In fact I didn’t vote for John McCain and still wouldn’t, I would instead sit 2008 out presidentially.
To think that Republicans would win if it weren’t Trump is to ignore the closeness of the races in the last 6 presidential cycles, 2 of which he was in and won at least one of them (snark). That said, she’s a terrible candidate so it’s likely true but it wouldn’t be because of anything grand on the R’s side but rather how terrible she is as the D candidate–i.e. no universal enthusiastic support for the non-Trump R candidate. In fact, were that true, the Republican race would have been closer in the primaries, right?
I’ve joked that 2028 has been labeled a tossup with the swing states being: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wiscsonsin and perhaps Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and New Hampshire. The country is divided for a reason, all we have left are the irreconcilable differences as everything else has been “compromised” over with federal overspending, papering over every discernible difference where both sides got what they wanted.
But when it comes to open borders/(il)legal immigration, energy policy or draconian economic/energy views subjected to some climate bogemen, defunding police/soft on crime,tax increases, reverse discrimination/DEI/wokism, well, those differences cannot be reconciled. If the Republican candidate in 2028 looks a lot like the Democratic candidate does it matter all that much except for Supreme Court nominees?
The 1968 Presidential election was a very close one. In fact Humphrey would have won if George Wallace had not run as a third party candidate, stealing southern Democrat votes from him.
No matter who wins the problems cannot be fixed …
Which is why I have a feeling that the Democrats are actually trying to lose this election by selecting the worst possible candidate to run.
Yes, the only change Harris would represent is more welfare state and open border.
Notice also she refuses to bring up anything about national security and foreign policy in her campaigning ?
The only good thing with Harris is that I might be able to apply for immigrant status.
Its clear she is going to try to get elected on the Jerry Seinfeld platform.
A campaign about nothing
And hope that Trump self destructs by saying too much.
So for the author of that breathless gushing opinion piece… all that “pent up Democratic enthusiasm” is that from the 14 million who voted in the primaries or just the corrupt Democrat establishment in the US Congress and senate? Did they pay for that article?
Most people don’t care about or listen to the political marketing, they have either already decided based on superfluous reasons, already decided based on narrow issues they are angry about, or they have given up anf don’t care.
Large numbers of people around the world are under sustained and ongoing economic stress, and resent actions that exacerbate that, such as illegal (and legal) mass immigration – which is unwanted everywhere by the vast majority.
It’s hard to see how any incumbent, such as Harris, benefits from this. You can see the effects in Europe. Macron, Scholz, and the Dutch and British and Irish establishments, Spain, Italy, Sweden, people are angry, tired and sick of it, and of the woke garbage and are fearful of the emergent police state.
Western civilization all around the world, is at a crossroads, and it’s been induced by a mix of unsustainable debt to fund unsustainable public services; and technological change, not least of which is smartphone technology and it’s ability to hypnotise and brainwash people into doing, saying, and thinking things that are not in their best interests.
The future looks bleak from here, whichever side wins, the invisible war for human minds looks set to continue.
Spot On …
bingo. uniparty empire. we are either leading our pawns in EU and israel, japan………or they are dragging us down. same result. we drown. like lifeguards at the beach on a failed rescue.
Indeed! Europe has been one step ahead(?) of us as our test plot of bad ideas. Unfettered, unrestrained and uncontrolled influx of millions is just crazy and easily demonstrable as a bad idea by asking any supporter how many of those they would choose to voluntarily house/feed/clothe/educate/heal for the next 18 years–when that answer comes back as zero, well, there’s your answer (think: Martha’s Vineyard).
There is one distinct difference–the mass influx of illegal immigrants here are generally of a different cultural/religious/historical background than those found in Europe.
It’s still a terrible direction, all preventable by having a sound, enforceable, legislated policy in hand, but, nonetheless different than Europe. Leads to similar outcomes fo anger, frustration and a number of uncertain/uncontrollable/unforeseen outcomes.
If Nate Silver is saying 50/50, then Trump is all but in (assuming an honest election). Does no one remember Silver’s completely botched 2016 call? Even in 2020, he said Biden had an 89% chance of winning and we now know that were it not for the covering up of Hunter’s Laptop by the media, he probably would have lost. He should already be in the scrapbin of prognosticators in my view.
Many a slip ‘twixt cup and lip…
Indeed, but I’m just saying that if a “guru” who is known to wildly underestimate Trump every four years has the race as TCTC, then the Trump camp should be very happy about that!
start with 1800 election for stolen votes………and learn reality of election shenanigans. is this nursery school or just brain washed old men who don’t know what politics has been since the republic of plato was penned.
Silver’s a joke among those familiar with his previous calls
Yet 538 is still treated like the definitive place for prognostication!
I say let’s give a white guy a chance.
She’d be a fantastic president – if you want to be hectored every day about “privilege”. Who wouldn’t want four years of that?
It’s like voting for your ex wife to be the boss of you.
Kamala needs a White male by her side for her cream puff interview. That’s our future leader come the the steal.
And pre-recorded to boot. She’s an embarrassment and has no business anywhere near the top.
Suburbian women and Jack Smith will send Trump higher.
I find it hard to believe Harris is ahead of Trump, if it is true half of the electorate are brain dead. God help us.
Well they are Americans – most of them , at least.
She’s ahead because Trump is so undisciplined and keeps shooting himself with stupid comments.
Said constantly by people without regard to the uncountable number of word salad idiotic statements by Harris/Biden over the last 4 years or her failure to even have to answer any ad-hoc question thus preventing her from saying anything of substance at all!
The media simply presents negativity on Trump by design (and his own words, though nearly always presented without context by intent) and protects Harris by forcing folks to hear her nonsense via Twitter as they keep any negativity/nonsense she says from getting in front of any number of viewers/voters. And they don’t DEMAND or EXPECT her to answer any policy question without a teleprompter or editing room available.
Note her first interview since she was annointed from on high over 6 weeks ago will be a recorded one, with her running mate present, where editors can curate that sumbeetch and drop it in front of viewers who say Trump says bad things as they ENSURE she CANNOT.
Seems fair, right? So when you say what you say, as Mish also says, remember that the expectations and treatment are not the same between how MSM handles and has handled one candidate vs the other. Whenever she has been forced to go off script she says “the wheels on the bus go round and round”. Sure, less offensive in some ways but, given the title she’s running for, far more insulting to me as I expect someone up for the job of President of the United States.
The recorded interview is over the top. I expect football players to play not go into the tape room and edit out poor throws, see how the defense stopped their running play on on 3rd and 3 so they edit it out and call a screen. Gosh, an undefeated team they would be eh? The interview is like her candidacy; they turned it over to the people, they “chose” Biden because no one was allowed to run against him. When they saw they would lose, they edited that out and installed a different player. Now they are controlling the game from the editing booth. Shoish. Trump doesn’t get that type of protection and in life that will lead to fumbles, interceptions, penalties and plays that don’t work.
I’ve never understood the argument that the media is the reason for xyz. If thats true its not just the media’s fault, everyone who consumes and believes it is culpable as well. In your view, is the media you consume responsible for xyz when it goes your way or is it because you made a decision on your own? Trump won in 2016 how does that factor into your claim that the media is influencing things?
“…Trump says bad things as they ENSURE she CANNOT…”
Duh, the Democrats are playing to win. They are keeping Kamala outta sight for a reason. Republicans should take notice, but they won’t. The truth is that Trump can’t keep his flipping mouth under control. If he acted more like an adult and less like a spoiled child he would have a higher favorability and be ahead in the polls by a wide margin. If Trump loses it won’t be due to the media. It will be because Trump is undisciplined and is running a shitty campaign.
Conservatives have adopted the victimhood play from the Liberals. Just more whining and complaining and blaming some shadowy group they claim is pulling the strings behind the scenes.
So your argument for Trump being undisciplined is “what about” Harris? Talk about weak tea…[lol]
amerikans are idiotes, as the ancient greeks defined it. we are a crumbling empire of 3rd base fat and lazy war mongers. it’s a uniparty of red hats and blue hats. the idiotes have been divided and conquered. that’s all there is to it. just another fat bloated empire. an old story in human history.
Humanity is full of idiots. They are not the ones deciding this election if the Democrats have it they way.
wings and NFL football-wow!
I guess the ancient Greeks were idiots too since they crumbled and fell. Just like the Romans, Egyptians, Persians, etc, etc, etc.
Nothing on this Earth last forever, nothing. Things come and go including those things created by man. To think otherwise is simply confirming the arrogance of man.
I would add that I find it amusing that everyone who doesn’t get thier way seems to think everyone else who doesn’t think like them is an “idiot”. More evidence of the arrogance of man.
For mankind, old habits die hard I guess.
Growth–>peak–>decline is the progression of things in the natural world (as you imply, human civilizations not excepted).
Those ancient societies weren’t always loaded with idiots, but their numbers sure increased over time!
It isn’t true. Not even close. It’s par for the course with Silver though.
Half the people will vote for one of the 2 candidates. They always do. Even in years when its a blowout in the electoral collage the raw totals are never more than 55-45. The idea that there is some kind of 80-20 blowout win is a myth.
The feeling is mutual. But we have the facts on our side. 😊