Trump’s strategy has gone from boring to shockingly bizarre and counterproductive. Does Trump think his opponent is Brian Kemp or Kamala Harris? What about recession? Walz?
Two Notes to Republicans (Democrats and Independents Too)
- I am going to blast trump quite a bit.
- Towards the end of this post, I offer my assessment as well as an assessment from Nate Silver on how a recession would help Trump.
Shockingly Bizarre and Counterproductive
The Wall Street Journal comments Trump Runs Against Republicans in Georgia—Again
Mr. Trump used a campaign appearance in Georgia on Saturday to tee off on the state’s GOP Governor, Brian Kemp, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Both men won re-election in 2022, despite Mr. Trump’s vocal opposition, even as Trump-backed candidates lost elsewhere. But no matter, Mr. Trump will never forgive either man for not joining his attempt to overturn the 2020 election in the Peach State.
“He’s a bad guy, he’s a disloyal guy and he’s a very average Governor,” Mr. Trump told the crowd about Mr. Kemp. He even took a shot at the Governor’s wife. Mr. Trump added that “Wasn’t for me, he would not be your Governor. I think everybody knows that.” Actually, everybody knows that Mr. Kemp won in 2022 with 53.4% of the vote against Democratic media darling Stacey Abrams, while Mr. Trump lost the state by 12,000 votes in 2020.
Mr. Trump also cost Republicans two Senate seats in special elections in January 2021 when he told his partisans that the November election had been stolen. Turnout was down in Republican areas of the state. Why vote if your candidate says your ballot won’t count?
Mr. Trump’s rants are especially counterproductive because he needs Mr. Kemp’s organization in Georgia. Mr. Kemp is supporting the former President and is deploying his turnout machine, but Mr. Trump may convince many of those Republicans to vote for someone else or stay home as they did in 2020.
Mr. Trump won’t win if he’s fighting about the past instead of laying out an agenda for the future. But he simply can’t help himself.
Trump Questions Kamala’s Race
The Bitcoin Brigade
Prediction
Bitcoin will not bring in any votes because “It’s the Economy, Stupid.”
Trump’s proposal not to tax tips may bring in some votes, assuming those votes are not permanently lost on other Trumpian stupidities.
Due to Extreme FIMD, Trump is Now Behind
Instead of attacking Kamala Harris on the economy, Trump is attacking Brian Kemp and alienating Black voters with arrows that not only are off target but have circled around like boomerangs. (Lead Image)
On August 4, I commented Due to Extreme FIMD, Trump is Now Behind, He May Need a Hard Recession to Win
Trump is suffering from extreme Foot-In-Mouth-Disease. He Just cannot keep on message.
Dear Donald, it’s still the economy stupid.
How can a fight with Brian Kemp not cost votes? How can stupid statements about race not cost votes?
Moaning over sampling and pollster bias is silly. Pollsters generally correct of oversampling and Silver provides his own corrections on top of it.
Plus, if a pollster shows overall Democrat or Republican bias, Silver corrects for that too.
What About Recession?
Trump is acting so bizarrely, that he may need either a major gaffe by Kamala Harris (possible if not likely), or a hard recession (likely). That has been my position for about a week.
Nate Silver discussed how a recession might change things in his post on Monday.
Will a Recession Be Enough for Trump to Win?
That question was the subject of Silver’s post Kamalamentum vs. Economic Headwinds
In general, the Silver Bulletin forecast has tracked prediction markets extremely closely — but there’s more of a divergence now. Harris rose again in our forecast today: in the span of a week, she’s gone from a 37 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to a 53 percent chance. The race is still a toss-up for all intents and purposes, but if you’re sweating the details, you’d rather have the 53 percent side of a bet than the 47 percent half.
At Polymarket, however, the odds are roughly the reverse of this, with Trump at 54 percent and Harris at 44 (and 2 percent for Michelle Obama for some reason).
What I’d say in general, before we go behind the paywall, is that I think this is a somewhat challenging time from a forecasting standpoint. There’s been a lot of huge political news that’s piled on top of itself. I’m not sure that the polls have yet entered some sort of steady state — instead, Harris has fairly consistently been rising, and is now ahead by almost 2 points in our national polling average.
You could argue that the model makes some assumptions that are generous to Harris. It’s still applying a modest convention bounce adjustment to Trump’s polls, as we’re still only about two weeks removed from the end of the RNC.
But I don’t particularly think the model is under-reacting to the economic news — in fact, both the monthly jobs report and the S&P 500 are directly incorporated into the forecast in the form of the model’s economic index.
Quick aside — you’ll notice that the model calculates both the current state of the economy and a projection for Nov. 5. How is the projection formulated? It’s based on two factors: the recent performance of the S&P 500, and the quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters, which was last updated in May. (There will be a new version soon.) If you’re a finance professional, and you think the economy is about to go into recession – then yes, you probably have a good bet on Trump. But that’s not the consensus view as reflected in the data, and in fact the recent stock sell-off is incorporated into the projections that the model has for the other economic variables.
Our Democratic readers should take note that the convention bounce adjustment we apply after the DNC will hurt Harris, shaving a point or two off of her numbers for a few weeks. Harris will need to be ahead by something like 4 points in national polls conducted immediately after the convention to maintain her current position in the model.
Disagreeing With Silver on the Economy
Not only do I think the economy is headed for recession, I think the economy is in recession.
Silver uses Z-scores for the six economic indicators. A score of zero indicates an average economy, positive values are better than average, and negative values are worse than average.
The forecasters have the current Z-score at 0.00 and project -0.06 for November 5.
For November, the forecasters have the CPI as positive (I agree, the rate of inflation is heading lower and negative prints would not surprise me in the least).
The professional forecasters foresee nonfarm payrolls as slightly positive (I strongly disagree).
And the professional forecaster foresee the S&P 500 as positive (again, I strongly disagree).
Essentially, Silver (rather the professional forecasters) think the economy will be no worse off in November than now, and now is average.
I disagree with what’s happening now, noting May numbers are very stale. And I strongly disagree with the professional forecasters on where the economy is headed (at least as of May).
I don’t know what the model would suggest if I got to plug in some numbers, but undoubtedly lower for Harris.
The best I can do for now is repeat Silver “If you’re a finance professional, and you think the economy is about to go into recession – then yes, you probably have a good bet on Trump.“
I am going to add a caveat to that. If Trump keeps up his shockingly bizarre and counterproductive behavior, he may easily lose no matter what the economy does.
Recession Has Started
On July 8, I wrote Weak Data Says a Recession Has Already Started, Let’s Now Discuss When
I’ve seen enough. A recession has started. Let’s discuss starting with a very good indicator that has few false positives and no false negatives.
My follow-up post was on August 2.
August 2: The McKelvey (Sahm) Unemployment Rate Recession Rule Just Triggered
A recession indicator based off rising unemployment triggered in July. Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, takes credit for an indicator she did not invent. Let’s discuss.
Weakening data explains the recession call. Yield curve action provides a confirmation signal. Global selloffs add to recession risks. Sentiment matters.
Don’t expect the Fed to bail out speculative mania. Markets generally fall after the first rate cut. This decline ahead of time caught most off-guard.
It would behoove Trump to apologize to Brian Kemp and ask for his help. But he won’t.
The best we can hope is Trump keeps his mouth closed enough so that his foot no longer fits in it.
Would that be enough and will Trump do it?
But he now has help. For example … How Progressive is Tim Walz, Kama Harris’ VP Running Mate?
We now have dueling mistakes.
Mish Where is the Libertarian party? Why don’t they get any press coverage? This is where the middle of the Road people should be. Trump said he can’t use us.
Libertarianism is a hobby belief. It has nothing to do with reality.
I completely agree. and I call myself a libertarian. disorganization or a lack of organization can never compete in the short term with hyper organization.
Mister Mish, this is a very conservative forecast, and that is what I expect from Real Clear Politics (and its polling site Real Clear Polling)
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
Look at back on 8 August 2024 when Biden (in 2020) and Clinton (in 2016) were leading by about 5% more than Harris is currently.
Even with all the positive media coverage of Harris, as though they are competing with each other on who can “remake” her the most, I would expect Harris to do a lot better.
How long can the media stroke Harris until enough voters get fatigued and turned off from it ? Especially this is the case if the economy slows more, and a distraction is need since Trump has not shot himself enough in the foot.
Very Respectfully,
AD
It’s not a question of whether or not the Democrats can keep Trump flailing with his absurdities because he’s doing a good job of it on his own
Recently “abortion laws dont matter” “my crowd was bigger than the MLK crowd at Washington DC” Oh Lord just be quiet Mr Trump Talk about the mess that the Asia sea area is becoming and that now FINALLY opioid overdoses are leveling off and declining. What will trump (or any of them ) do to continue that GOOD news? But nooo all we hear is the flat line drone its about me me me me me.
If Trump becomes president so be it it’ll be a train wreck of an entertainment ride for the next four years And is there not some data info that when a republican moves in, the economy sours if not tanks? I dont know I will let all my other mensa members in here muddle over that .
Regarding the economy unless price per gallon explodes in the next number of weeks and there’s long lines of cars for miles and miles and miles picking up baskets of food we will put on our ushanka’s in Nov and trudge to the ballot box to pick our poison
The only way Kamala wins is if they “find” hundreds of thousands of ballots in the middle of the night and in the days following the election.
I wonder what Hillary got out of the Make Kamala ‘President’ deal?
Trump may be coming around to the middle. Today he pointed out how the Democrats to away Biden’s chance to run for President. Even though it was a self-serving comment because rump’s margin over Biden was growing, the point was fairly bipartisan.
Does he think Biden’s still in the race?
Again you are 100% on!! Though you did not speak about JD and Trumps war on women, like we are 50% of the population. As a Reagan Republican, I’m shocked! The 2025 Project had some guy wanting the lock up women, in my family we had a number of miscarriages..so the sheriff drives up and locks us up! Yikes. We need a business man, the debt is unsustainable, even AARP has not recognized that SS will disappear if this continues. Trump needs to REINVENT HIMSELF!! Yea as NOT MAGA! Someone for ALL the voters! Women, men, school kids,and working folks! Put China in a box!
You presume Trump is smart enough to realize MAGA means NADA. He’s still better than BJ Harris, but that’s not saying much
Ive been at this all this all day, we may truly have a Manchurian Candidate. Had to actually look it up, I remembered the movie, yup that is where we are. My neighbor actually believes Trump raped Stormy Daniels; my family despises Trump; Yes Ohio actually prosecuted a woman for having a miscarriage, its a two page story, but true, as I predicted upon overthrow of R/W; Trump is unable to articulate Harris’s bad policies—we are in deep territory…He needs to reinvent himself, take off that f’n hat …Yes I realize people out there reject female reproductive freedom! So 1 out of 4 families are without daddy. And that is what I do…help these people.
Are you a Biologist?
Since Biden is too mentally incapacitated to run, why doesn’t Headboard invoke the 25th? They booted poopy pants from the ticket, but let him stick around for the 9pm oatmeal and night nurse privileges? This is a job, not Sun City Retirement Community.
What a bunch of spineless cowards the Democratic party is. I’d say we deserve better, but Democrats don’t think we do.
The 25th against Biden would never pass the Senate. Plus, the last thing Harris needs right now is to assume the tasks and stress of the presidency while she is campaigning to actually get elected to the office.
The USA has managed to get to where we are now with Biden as a figurehead President with most, if not all of his decisions having actually been made by some committee behind him. 5 more months of Biden won’t change anything.
It’s highly unlikely we’re currently in a recession. Unemployment is only at 4.3% and I suspect will go back down near 4% in the August tally. Job creation, while down, is still sufficient to handle the new entrants to the workforce. Initial weekly unemployment claims at 233k is nowhere near recessionary levels. While manufacturing is struggling a bit, it is a relatively small part of the US economy which nowadays is mostly services.
”
1. Trump will enjoy a boost from pro-Bitcoin & pro-crypto voters that doesn’t show up in the polling, by at least 1% or more.
2. Kamala Harris will now scramble to come up with some phony “digital asset” policy framework to pander to pro-crypto voters.
”
What about the pro-cactusmilk voters?
There’s got to be at least as many of those, as there are pro-crypto voters.
I do WISH there was a pro-gun sized “pro-crypto” voting bloc. But there isn’t.
Puh-leeze. It will take more than a year for the agency that calls recessions to call another one. That is far past the election date. Unless the stock markets fall 30+ percent and stay there, leading to significant job layoffs, most people are not going to believe a recession is here.
Then there is the issue as to whether people will believe that Trump and the Republicans have some sort of magic that will restore job growth and the stock markets at the wave of their wands. Tax cuts for the wealthy won’t be it.
Even were you right that a recession has started, which I don’t believe you to be, the economy is NOT going to totally fall off the cliff within the next 89 days.
Also, don’t forget that many people will be voting days or weeks early prior to the formal election day, their minds already made up.
Cope.
I saw that voting starts somewhere on September 4th. I know that I am voting on September 24th in Colorado.
Kamala Harris is a gold digger. With SF mayor she was 100% black. With the high tech Indian mafia she was 100% Indian.
Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperber are D puppet. To survive Stacy Abraham he sacrificed Trump.
It fascinates (and amuses me) how much people overlook the impact of mass-media brainwashing. While both sides do it, the momentum is on the left, largely the result of journalism schools that preach opining for social causes, not reporting facts.
As a broad generalization, if something is repeated often enough, it is believed. Repeated often enough (three times is usually ample), people perceive it as truthful, even compared to new contrary information. Diminishing returns set in after the second repetition.
We are seeing this with Walz’ military record. Multiple sources confirming the information exacerbate the repetition effect. Thus, new information, such as ‘stolen valor’ claims by other National Guard members will largely be discounted.
BTW, this is the illusory truth effect: Applied to RussiaGate, Ukraine, and just about everything Trump touched; always, he was conveyed in a negative manner. That’s the kicker. Prior repetition builds negativity and increases the believability of conforming messages. concerning new information.
It fascinates (and amuses me) how a single individual can proclaim that everyone else who doesn’t believe as he does are all wrong and brainwashed!
Are you the 2nd coming of Jesus? Did your parents raise you in a special manner so that ONLY YOU can recognize media brainwashing? Do you have a 300 IQ?
I think it would be better for Trump to go the route of Biden and spend the rest of the time in his basement and let the cackling idiot self destruct.
She hid on AF2 while JD Vance told the media Headboard Harris won’t talk to that the reporters should start doing their jobs.
Does not people get what this election is about as the evidence is there in plane sight?
George Carlin said its a Big club and you ain’t in it.
Well that Big Club has been instrumental in attempting to stop Trump presidency or are people incapable of 2+2=4 anymore?
Do you not want to have to belong to that certain club with their secret handshakes to live on whatever scrap they decide to hand out to you?
Just want to go about your own business, raise your family whatever that entails, think a moment instead of getting all wrapped up in emotions.
Take 1/2 hour and review some of the Old WW2 war footage and see what kind of courage it took to persevere.
Think about what kind of courage it takes for a paratrooper to jump out an airplane with only thing between themself and death is the backpack they are wearing.
People are afraid because somebody might say something bad about them if they don’t go along to get along. Or a Government shill might report them to Gasp, a three letter agency.
Think about giving the middle finger to the Big club of special interests and insiders when you go to vote come November.
In your assessment of whether we will be in recession or not and political fall out from it, you seemed to ignore one very real fact: we always “learn” that we are in recession after well into it and all charts showing the “start” of a recession (even the “end” of it for that matter) are estimates but regular people are already feeling to pinch of an uneven economy, you call whatever you want -but politically it is the moment of “the economy stupid”. Whether a recession will help to Trump or not, if he is not seizing the moment (“carpe diem”) then does it really matter? But you are the economist, you tell me if he becomes president, what will happen to our spending? In his presidency, the budget deficit increased as well in part tax cuts….still in effect. BTW one thing is really odd to me, why on Earth he is not with his mint VP pick going around the “battle states”? Makes you wonder.
Definitions don’t matter; how people feel matters, and they don’t feel prosperous or optimistic. Telling them they’re wrong isn’t going to work.
Trump doesn’t seem to be at the top of his game right now. The campaign is pushing Vance out there in his place.
Using the standard NBER definition, it’s almost impossible for the economy to be in a recession right now. The model-based probabilities for a recession in 3 or 6 months I have seen are significant but well below 50 percent. On the election, Trump and his campaign has clearly never planned for the contingency of facing a youthful, energetic, and optimistic candidate. All the Trump campaign is doing now is sending JD Vance out to stalk Harris and Walz with obvious lies. No wonder the momentum in the polls (and betting markets) has completely shifted against Trump.
Cope.
seethe.
Trump/Vance is younger than Harris/Walz. Averages
Good statistical point! But the fact is that Trump is an age bracket where you have to start seriously planning for your funeral based on life insurance tables, while both Harris and Walz are in the safe zone. Why do we even allow an old fart like that to run for a job like POTUS?
I have given up any hope that Trump can stay on message long enough to win the election. Focus on keeping the House and taking the Senate. Let Ms. Wordsalad and Tampon Tim deal with the recession and hopefully a Republican not named Trump will emerge before 2028.
August 2024 is the first time money flows have turned negative. That means N-gDp is decreasing. On the other hand, short-term money flows have been increasing since 2023 and are now set to reverse. Atlanta gdpnow figures should show datapoints falling.
6/1/2023 ….. 0.159
7/1/2023 ….. 0.12
8/1/2023 ….. 0.095
9/1/2023 ….. 0.091
10/1/2023 ….. 0.07
11/1/2023 ….. 0.058
12/1/2023 ….. 0.045
1/1/2024 ….. 0.035
2/1/2024 ….. 0.043
3/1/2024 ….. 0.041
4/1/2024 ….. 0.055
5/1/2024 ….. 0.037
6/1/2024 ….. 0.041
7/1/2024 ….. 0.039 * top
8/1/2024 ….. -0.005
9/1/2024 ….. 0.01
10/1/2024 ….. 0.017
11/1/2024 ….. 0.019
12/1/2024 ….. 0.011
The squad plunged 50%. Chucky is no longer scared of AOC. Forget about Dr Oz. The D, who cannot stop lying, blame the other side for lying 29 times. The invisible hand deposed Biden. Biden’s revenge was swift. The new candidate chose Timmy who kissed Al sharpton in the mass. For sacrificing his state and Minneapolis he was rewarded, throwing a few crumbs to pacify the Obamas.
No idea what you are trying to say. You sound like Biden at the debate.
Peter Zeihan believes Trump has dementia. I would agree.
Per Mayoclinic.org:
“Psychological changes
Being endlessly prosecuted for the same things that D.C. pols constantly do (only to have the litigation be found without merit) and then having someone try to assassinate you usually has that effect on people. No to mention two failed impeachment attempts for the same things Joe Biden did.
the effect : Trump matured. The D are delusional, they are getting worse. In a side by side comparison : Kamala Harris and Timmy have no chance. The media is false positively biased. They lie to convince democrats and themselves. They lie to get paid, to survive. Their lies have no meanings to the other side.
If Trump has dementia, what does Biden have. Biden is unfit for office.
Don’t fall for the narrative that democrats always accuse the the other side of doing what they do.
Threat to Democracy – How did Kamala get her seat? Not alot of voting. They are doing everything in their power to thwart strong voting laws and inflating away citizens votes. Who does not have a photo ID?
They want to take away your Social Security – Democrats want to spend away anything left in the trust fund and inflate away any now unfunded liability.
They are racists. – Who brings up the melanin content in your skin color?
The republicians packed the court – Who wants to add term limits to judges? The (R) used a senate rule put in by (D) to get the judges through.
I could go on and on and on.. but I hope you get the idea.
Judgement should be applied equally or do you want a two tier justice system.
By the way that is the argurment for letting criminals roam the streets.
Per Peter Zeihan, he believes Biden is delusional.
Per that blueprint; dude’s been demented since birth…
Peter Zeihan is full of shit.
No matter who wins the presidency, America will lose.
The only thing going to the moon is DEBT and INFLATION.
Get used to our country’s future, it is a four-letter word known as: D.E.B.T.
One could say:
If a Democrat wins the presidency, America will lose.
If a Republican wins the presidency, America will win.
The only thing going to the moon is DEBT. If you were already in debt, or cant control your own spending.
The only thing going to the moon is INFLATION. If you don’t downsize, cutback, alter habits, cut out useless items etc.
Get used to our country’s future, it is For You, Whatever you choose to make it!
Economies tend to perform better under Dems than Pubs. Look it up!
False.
Leftist policies always destroy economies.
Look it up.
That’s because they spend more recklessly than the Republicans do. Anyone can have a great economy if they just borrow enough money and do a helicopter drop (see 2020-2022).
One could say…
Throwing an Amazon Chinese dildo on a Walmart sheet cake and selling it at a specialty bakery is good for the economy, too.
No politicians understand economics, and certainly not how money and growth is created, nor how interest rates work or what Eurodollars are. There is no inflation, only deflation as shown by the contraction of credit and bond market behaviour. Cutting the size of the state is certainly necessary and the best way to cope with the global debt crisis.
That makes no sense at all…
No politicians? understand economics, how money and growth is created, or how interest rates work or what Eurodollars are?
There is no inflation? only deflation?
Please Stop it…
People have been saying the same for more than a 100 years.
False.
People have been saying that leftists always destroy economies, for 100 years.
– Mr. Trump cost Republicans two Senate seats in special elections in January 2021 when he told his partisans that the November election had been stolen. > Voters who stay home because of that, probably were just looking for an excuse not to be inconvenienced, and have to get up, and go vote. >> I personally would be more inclined to Vote with that being the case, but I have never missed a Vote, because I do care, and I don’t care what Anybody States along the way…
– Mr. Trump won’t win if he’s fighting about the past. > Trump has not even started to spend money yet, give the Man some time to get going, but see where and how the wind is blowing first and foremost. That’s the mistake He made last time. He is right on target this time around so far.
– Trump said: “I didn’t know she was Black” > Harris isn’t, but claims to be, and that’s A Fact. I see no problem pointing that out now, and every chance he can get, where and when it’s appropriate. He will and should get a big jump in the Black Vote come elections, but just not now in the MSM.
2 predictions:
– 1. Trump will enjoy a boost from pro-Bitcoin & pro-crypto voters that doesn’t show up in the polling, by at least 1% or more. > Such a small number of people, who cares either way.
– 2. Kamala Harris will now scramble to come up with some phony “digital asset” policy framework to pander to pro-crypto voters. > She scrambles with everything she tries to do. Nothing new…
– Trump’s proposal not to tax tips may bring in some votes. > Way More than BC could dream of.
– How can a fight with Brian Kemp not cost votes? Old news, and unimportant when it matters, but that’s not now.
– Trump may need either a major gaffe by Kamala Harris, or a hard recession.> He is well on His way of having Both!
– But that’s not the Not only do I think the economy is headed for recession, I think the economy is in recession.> Agreed!
Don’t understand this enamoration with WSJ for political analysis. If you want to get you financial analysis there I understand but the pols there are bought and paid for establishment syncophants who do nothing but spout the Uniparty line of D.C. and whatever they are trying to sell the American public on at the moment. Their stage managers and cheerleaders are the Hollyweird crowd that directs the MSM to distract the public from those things that really matter (like the recession we are in at the moment and have been for some time).
The hardcore facts of inflation and recession are what matters most and on that note people will ignore Trump’s more negative qualities and reflect on how Biden/Harris have put us in our present situation and how that has impacted their household and lowered our standard of living as a whole.
I have to agree. Stop pandering to his base and start thinking about independent voters and fence-sitters. Trump’s advisors are badly missing an opportunity. And, quit tying the stock market to his campaign; it’s a two-edged sword.
When did offering criticism for one’s own candidate constitute some sort of thought crime? I’m 100% pro-Trump. That said I’m also not going to be doing a ‘dear leader’ routine. We’ve got to be better than the hive-mind that is the left and democrats.
Save him???
This election is OVER. DJT wins in a landslide.
Mish/lemmings will swallow any narrative that MSM pours down their throats.
The Harris/Walz ticket is FAR LESS viable/electable than the Biden/Harris ticket.
And don’t tell me about “recent polls”… yeah, I’ve seen the laughably biased polls featuring wildly progressive over-sampling… don’t insult our intelligence with that garbage.
This election is NOT a horserace… it’s a forgone conclusion – Trump will be POTUS again… assuming there isn’t yet another assassination attempt… oh, how quickly the TDS NPC MSM narrative addicts have memory-holed THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL EVENT OF THIS ELECTION CYCLE… so foolish… so willfully blind to reality.
Save him??? Turn off cable news, open your front door & take a long walk… Trump/Vance signs EVERYWHERE, incl. “blue” districts, cities & states.
I wish that were true. It isn’t.
If I’ve learned anything from life it is to never take anything for granted. I’m sure d’Albret went into Agincourt thinking it was a foregone conclusion – key takeaway: It’s never over ’til it’s over.
Trump also alienated most of the Reagan Republicans with his Ukraine hate.
Just to drive the point home he hired JD Vance as his running mate.
Don’t know where you are getting this from, I am a Reagan Republican and definitely will be voting Trump Vance ticket.
Reagan one of the very few Presidents where working people were able to be prosperous via hard work. Trump is the other one.
Donny can say whatever he wants, I am voting for his policies which are what matters.
Still looking for someone who is not insane on the Democrat side. None to be found.
We’re in Bizarro Land. Trump has valid points: he just isn’t good at articulating them, all the time. Trump said the exact same thing about Harris’ race as Judge Joe Brown did…and Judge Brown actually knows her and worked with her. Why isn’t that interview being covered?
Trump is no saint…but going from 70 + years without being convicted of any crimes to, all the sudden, 34 felonies? (Which are actually all misdemeanors).
Harris admitted, in an interview, that the VP job is “too difficult”… and Democrats still nominated her?
They did Trump a favor and was effectively campaigning for him…until lately. He does FIMD…and it comes up all the time.
But, considering how he has constantly been attacked, he’s holding up better than Harris, in my book.
Walz signed Pro-Phedophelia legislation into law in MN…and, now, like biden, he’s telling stories about his military service record…
So, if it’s a case of who is doing worse to their campaigns… I’d say Harris/Walz are.
If it’s a case of who will do better for the country and the economy, Trump wins by a landslide, in my book.
No, he wouldn’t be my first choice…but we only have 2 choices in any general election and I’m voting for the lesser of two evils.
Harris had been hiding behind scripts. Walz has an issue growing with his deceptive framing of both rank and combat deployment. This is as weak sauce a ticket as can be imagined. Vance is extremely bright, articulate and goes right to the point. You’ve called out all the DNC trolls into the thread. They are so relieved!
When it comes to trump, we should take Ike’s advice: No one should ever sit in this office over 70 years old, and that I know.
Dwight D. Eisenhower Trump appears to be a somewhat befuddled angry old man. Trump’s mishandling of the Covid Hysteria contributed greatly to the present economic difficulties.
So, it’s draft exempt foot in mouth Trump versus toxic shock Tampon Tim’s National Guard war zone fantasies in the tradition of draft exempt Da Nang Dick’s National Guard marine fantasies and the adventures of the navy’s Swift Boat Kerry writing his citations for his medals earned. Doubtless Kumelot Harris and Tampon Tim will win the national selection for improving the rampant public school English reading inequities causing toxic shock syndrome among persons of color in coed bathrooms designed for normalizing future duty on those USS Love Boats for Rosie the catapult plane launcher. It’s all good in the ‘hood and CNN, the Children’s News Network. . .
Trump needs to learn to use surrogates to attack and he should focus on the message of how he is going to address concerns in a positive way.
In the meantime, there are some interesting things going on in Ukraine, or should I say Russia?
Yeah I always wondered why Ukraine didn’t try an incursion into Russia. It’s only 10 KM deep but it’s the idea that matters, not how far they get.
Ultimately Ukraine is doomed in the war (despite your belief otherwise) but a couple of incursions like this should help at the negotiating table in terms of speeding things up and getting a better deal (ie less loss of territory).
The Ukrainians didn’t do a lot of things because they were hamstrung by BIDEN, who told them to follow our rules or lose our weapon shipments. BIDEN was simply afraid of angering Putin.
They should have ignored him.
There is a big psyops going on designed to fool the Russians into believing that Ukraine was finished. Looks like it worked.
You overestimate Russia by a good amount. If they were going to win, they would have won by now. The war has pretty much gone as I have said for the last two years. What mystifies me is how were they able to hide around 60k men with heavy equipment from the eyes in the sky?
They would have won LONG ago without NATO aid.
It’s also going exactly how I expected as well. The country with the larger population and amount of weapons is gradually grinding the smaller one down bit by bit. Nothing can stop that.
The incursion reminds me a lot of the battle of Antietam during the civil war. It was the Souths only incursion into the North and was the Souths only real chance to broker a deal that would have allowed them to cede. But Lee decided not to push on and the South was eventually ground down.
Nato is the one furnishing the resources and for the moment Ukraine is furnishing the manpower. If more manpower is needed Nato will furnish that to. Russia thought it was going to attack a smaller nation but by doing so he found out that it was attacking an entity vastly more populous and vastly more wealthy. It has nothing to do with your Civil War analogy. You are still thinking that Ukraine is alone in this but it is not.
I bet if the Fed lowers interest rate in September Trump will cry it is election interference. He is rooting for a recession even though he knows it will hurt average Americans.
If a recession does happen will voters blame Harris, Biden, or both equally/unequally? That’s the key question as to whether a recession will hurt Harris’s chances IMHO. She’s wisely, given her tendency to gaffe, stayed pretty quiet and out of site during her tenure as VP, and Biden has taken the vast majority of the beating for the state of the economy (rightfully so). Will voters carry over the blame for the poor economy to Harris? I can’t say for certain. I think this is a wild card. I’m not so sure a recession will hurt Harris as much as many think. Voters are very myopic in my view. They pick one person to praise or blame and run with it.
The above isn’t an endorsement of either candidate by the way.
Trump doesn’t want to win.
Virtually all government data is manipulated … As James Carville one said it’s the economy stupid …. the US is in a recession and it’s only gonna get worse … no matter how hard they try to hide it … Lie about it or manipulate it …
Mish is 100% right with this column. As to why it belongs on financial board, the presidency affects more than a passing economic report. For those of us who want Harris to lose (more than we want Trump to win), the best thing would be if Trump gets freaked out by polls showing him losing and recalibrates. He has the ability (in a pinch) to stay on message – like the debate after the Access Hollywood tape. Whether he or Susie Wiles have enough introspection to recalibrate and focus remains to be seen. Probably 30% chance.
So long as the GOP has Trump as its figurehead whom 90% of conservatives vote for in November, you’re all complicit. It’s sad that the best the GOP has to offer is a xenophobic racist megalomaniac who is clearly suffering from notable cognitive decline. He’s just the kind of guy he said Biden is.
You just want free tampons.
Biden is just the kind of guy that Trump said he is. Same goes for Kamala.
Same goes for all of Washington. They’re all the guy Trump said Biden was. Trump included.
we finally beat medicare.
Trump is NOT figurehead of GOP, you jest no? Both parties suk. Trump voters are NOT GOP loyalists, they are the silent majority…coined around 1980…if you recall
Hello!
One thing for certain. No matter who “wins” the fourth turning nadir is coming in the next 5 years most likely.
Trump is likely to lose no matter what he does. The “Establishment” looks like it is seriously going to try to pull a Biden with Kamala. No actual questions or interviews or press conferences. Script everything.
The minute she has to speak on her own, she is Biiden’d except without the dementia
In any event the idea that the “CIA” will let Trump take office has near zero odds.
They will either kill him or steal the election. Higher polls for Kamala just make that easier. Trump and his lack of any kind of discipline make that easier.
So, what are you going to do, sit home and not vote? “Phoning” it in already, huh Tom? You sir are EXACTLY what the democrats hope for.
No. Trump approved aid for Ukraine, which is why Johnson brought it to the floor
I will not vote for Trump
I will vote RFK Jr despite his many problems. At least he hates the second most evil set of people in the country in Big Pharma. And he hates the most evil people, the “CIA”, too and would probably do more about the problem than Trump will
The fascists have taken over government.
I agree in part; however, not to sound like a ‘conspiracy nut, you should explain why the CIA is involved.
In addition, the force that will do more to influence voters than the recession, is the ongoing brain-washing by mass media.
Is this your country or theirs?
Right now this is their country. The actual CIA and FBI are the sharp ends, the power projection parts of the network of interests that controls all the media and tried to assassinate Trump and stole the election in 2020 and will do it again now
By November the inflationary depression will be so rampant that even the full media whitewash won’t convince anyone.
The message that I get is Trump remembers the deep state and is going to clean house. This is why through omission or commission they tried to have him get lead posioning. Don’t beleive the media. They write naratives to get access and sell ads. Nothing new under the sun!!! This is the why the we the people have a chance to change course and stop the reckless and beligerent behavior of the burueacracy. Shift the promient paradigm to make the government our servant and not the master.
If there’s any way to clean Deep State house (a big if) it does not involve telling everybody in advance. Also, it won’t win him one vote and will turn off many because most Americans don’t think there is a Deep State or they think they’re good guys.
NDAs should be signed by all senior management in the spooky complex. No CNN gigs, no opeds, no disinfo campaigns. All senior management would also have to agree to periodic waterboarding as well as 24/7 surveillance. Because if there is anyone who should be surveilled … The waterboarding would be to determine any lies or inconsistencies. If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. No one is drafting you into the agencies. If its good enough for a black site, its good enough for all the rogues and traitors hiding behind their desks and titles. Just seems like common sense.
Based on his record there is no reason to suppose, in the unlikely event, trump becomes potus again, he’ll accomplish much. After all is said and done, a hell lot of a lot more is said than done.
H. L. Mencken
Seriously Mish. Look at her platform. Listen to her speak. Oh wait a minute she has no posted platform and has not spoken to the press in 3 weeks. I guess that Cackling Tamponomics is not going to work. Imagine the cackler talking to another world leader, seriously.
I may be slow in responding to comments for a couple days. Have activities at different times.
And mean while both of the venal political parties are bought and paid for by their Israeli masters. How else can one explain the unquestionable support of this nasty, psychopathic nation. To wit,
“The report concludes that “appalling acts” of torture and abuse are taking place at all of Israel’s detention centres, including sexual violence, waterboarding and attacks with dogs.
The authors note “forced nudity of both men and women; beatings while naked, including on the genitals; electrocution of the genitals and anus; being forced to undergo repeated humiliating strip searches; widespread sexual slurs and threats of rape; and the inappropriate touching of women by both male and female soldiers”.
There are, according to the investigation, “consistent reports” of Israeli security forces “inserting objects into detainees’ anuses”.
Last month, Save the Children found that many hundreds of Palestinian children had been imprisoned in Israel, where they faced starvation and sexual abuse.”
These types of comment threads usually surpass 100. I’ll check back at lunch time.
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Mish, next time you are at the Natural Resource Conference in Rolling Meadows you can buy me a beer.
your insider insights here are absolutely mind blowing …
Trump is a clown who can’t keep his childish mouth shut. He is going to lose in the same way he did in 2020. My only hope is the Repubs retaking the Senate and building on the House.
Without Trump, the GOP would be closing in on 60 Senate seats this cycle. If Harris wins, her midterm will be a disaster for the Dems, and it would wash Trump out of the system.
You know, here’s an idea. Instead of making grotesque, racist comments about Harris in order to point out she’s a phony, how about, ya know, JUST CALL HER A PHONY.
While I have never understood the religious fervor around Trump, I thought that he at least had good, political marketing instincts.
I was wrong.
trump got MORE votes 2nd time. Weird huh? How does that coincide with losing?
What is this nonsense? About time I remove this site from my Finviz list.
exactly what did I say you disagree with?
You didn’t say that Trump was the second coming.
You criticized Dear Leader
your presumption that the things DJT says are consequential… they aren’t.
your presumption that this election is competitive… it isn’t.
sovereign nationalist populism VS. WEF globalist communism
the day-to-day rhetoric/details/polls/ DO NOT MATTER… scenery for tourists.
this election will not be decided by squish/moderate/undecided “independent” voters.
This election will be decided by the sheer volume/turnout of the committed voters at the Right & Left poles @ the political spectrum. One side is overwhelmingly energized & growing. The other side is demoralized & embarrassed. Stop kidding yourself.
Governor Tarkin, I think you underestimate their chances.
“One side is overwhelmingly energized & growing. The other side is demoralized & embarrassed.”
And they’re both; within +-2% in every single area; fighting for exactly the same darned government….