The Monthly International Trade in Goods and Services report by the Census Bureau shows the goods and services deficit was $55.5 billion in May, up $4.3 billion from $51.2 billion in April, revised.
The Econoday consensus was for the deficit to increase to $53.5 billion from a prior reading of $50.8 billion, now revised to $51.2 billion.
The $-55.5 billion result was outside the entire estimate range of $-54.7 billion to $-49.5 billion.
Exports, Imports, and Balance
- May exports were $210.6 billion, $4.2 billion more than April exports.
- May imports were $266.2 billion, $8.5 billion more than April imports.
- The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $4.4 billion to $76.1 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $20.6 billion.
By Country
Surpluses: The May figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.1), Hong Kong ($2.6), Singapore ($0.6), Brazil ($0.5), Saudi Arabia (less than $0.1), and United Kingdom (less than $0.1).
Deficits: Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.1), European Union ($16.9), Mexico ($9.1), Japan ($6.0), Germany ($5.8), Canada ($3.6), Italy ($2.6), France ($2.1), India ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.5), South Korea ($1.4), and OPEC ($0.1).
Non-Petrol Exports
Year-to-Date Numbers
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $15.7 billion, or 6.4 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports increased $5.1 billion or 0.5 percent. Imports increased $20.8 billion or 1.6 percent.
Small gains vs China were wiped out by losses elsewhere, notably Mexico and the EU.
Trump is sure to howl about the EU.
Don’t worry, imports will plunge in a recession.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Is the YTD deficit with China really down 10.8%?
Winning is dependent on Trumps goal. If it’s to reduce our overall trade deficit, then it’s not winning. If it’s to hurt China’s economy, then he is winning. China will suffer more damage than the US from the trade war.
As long as you measure success by the US metric and with US timelines you will keep missing how China is winning. The worlds is already moving on and the US will be left behind. Trump supporters kept telling me how he was smarter than the banks since he force his loses onto them when he bankrupt in the past. I kept telling people that when he bankrupts the US we are the banks. Trump has always been incompetent and there is no getting over that.
The next step is self-reliance. This means bringing industries back to America. Only minimal trade is actually necessary. The world is truly screwed if the US becomes self reliant. The US consumer has been driving global growth for 2 decades or more.
You can take that to the logical end point and decide each person should produce everything they need themselves. Trade is not necessary.
Never happen. The American people no longer have the skills necessary to be self-reliant. We’ve lost generations of tool & die makers, factory floor designers, and every form of skilled tradesmen.
In announcing his move of the manufacture of the last Macs from San Antonio to China, Tim Cook said it was because corporate America couldn’t figure out how to make enough custom screws to meet Apple’s needs. He picked China not because their labor is cheap, but because it is highly-skilled, unlike American labor. And they know how to make stuff in mass. We don’t.
I used to focus on buying American. I refuse to now. It’s trash. I buy German, Japanese and Chinese.
There’s still internationally competitive, quality stuff made in the US. Although more and more of that, is less complex stuff being made to truly high standards by small, highly dedicated groups and companies. Generally with the founder(s) still directly involved in production, and with every worker personally invested in the end product.
For darned near anything bigger, more complex and less immediately gratifying to those involved, The Fed and government handing the reins to darned near every organization which once did good work; to incompetent welfare queens in PE, “finance”, “law” and other extractive playgrounds-for-privileged-mediocrities dilettantes; has ended just the way such forced wealth and influence transfers from competents to incompetents always do: In ruins.
No, the world won’t be screwed. They will just move here, given our open borders. The point of open borders is to equalize the standard of living. Once the standard of living in the US is the same as Guatemala, there will no longer be a reason to move to the US from Guatemala, and so on. There is no need for borders, as the flow will eventually stop on it’s own.
Maybe that will happen, but only when the culture of US will equal that in central America. The economy is the result of culture, and not the other way round. It’s getting there with every new arrival.
Maximus, with no borders, it will eventually equalize, perhaps, but it takes a very long time. In keeping with the tone of the original post, I was being facetious.
You know what other country was big on self-reliance? Brazil. They too wanted to be self-reliance. By all accounts, they had the natural resources to do it. Yet see where Brazil is today.
I was being facetious. A world without trade isnt possible or efficient.
Oops sorry
China didn’t have a skilled workforce 30 years ago. We stopped the trades related programs in High School and told the kids to go to college and assume debt. I graduated from High School in 1982 and graduated from College and then decided to become an electrician. Best move I’ve made. Now we can’t get kids to get into trades; can’t understand why. Proud to have made 6 figures the last 10 years though. We have to start from ground zero just like Chicom did 30 years ago.