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NAHB Housing Market Index Suffers Second Biggest Drop on Record

Economists just cannot seem to grasp the housing crash that is underway. The Bloomberg consensus is a good example.
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Second Biggest Drop on Record

Image from Tweet Below

Image from Tweet Below

Still Above 50 But Plunging Fast

Second Biggest Drop in history

Econoday Consensus

Econoday July 2022 NAHB Consensus

The housing market index has missed Econoday's consensus every report so far this year including June's 2-point loss to 67. July's consensus is 66.

Only the temporary Covid-related plunge was worse. This won't be temporary.

Understanding This Recession

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Cyclicals (durable goods and housing) tell us that a recession is already underway.

For discussion, please see A Big Housing Bust is the Key to Understanding This Recession

For more on cyclical components including a video by Basmajian, please see Cyclical Components of GDP, the Most Important Chart in Macro

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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