The labor market softens again. Job openings drop and quits are below the pre-Covid level. 
Job Openings and Labor Turnover JOLTS
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary for July shows some sobering trends.
- At the March 2022 peak, there were 12,182,000 job openings vs an unemployment level of 5,993,000. There were more than two openings per those unemployed.
- There are now 7,637,000 opening vs an unemployment level of 7,163,000.
- At the current rate of labor deceleration, openings will soon be less than the number of unemployed.
Openings and Quits Revised Lower, Layoffs Higher
- The number of job openings for June was revised down by 274,000 to 7.9 million.
- The number of hires was revised down by 93,000 to 5.2 million, and the number of total separations was revised down by 11,000 to 5.1 million.
- Within separations, the number of quits was revised down by 68,000 to 3.2 million.
- The number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 62,000 to 1.6 million.
Job Openings, Hires, Separations, Quits
Quits are voluntary separations. The number of quits is below the pre-Covid level.
Quits by Sector
People are not quitting because there are fewer jobs to go to and new hires will generally be among the first to be discharged when layoffs hit.
Quits are elevated in education and health services. Those jobs have been elevated to handle the surge in immigration.
Manufacturing quits are above pre-pandemic levels despite the fact manufacturing is not exactly humming. Some of this may be retirements and some may be related to Inflation Reduction Act spending.
Construction quits is telling.
Construction Spending Growth Slows in May, Stops in June, Negative in July
Yesterday, I noted Construction Spending Growth Slows in May, Stops in June, Negative in July
Also note ISM Index Little Slightly Better But New Orders and Production Contracting Faster
Fed Does Not Seek or Welcome Further Labor Market Cooling
On August 23, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed Does Not Seek or Welcome Further Labor Market Cooling
The market is cheering the Jerome Powell’s self congratulatory and market friendly speech at Jackson Hole. “Your mileage may vary,” said Powell. Indeed.
Further labor market cooling is coming anyway.
Good job Mish, I am listening to you on Coast to Coast AM now
Yeah, currently 7.6 million job openings versus 7.2 million unemployed
Yes companies will post job openings with no intent of filling the job vacancies as they are trying to conduct market research of the employment market and to give the ruse that they are a growing company
yes Trump should point out that if the Fed cuts the rate by 1/2 point then the economy is not as good as the mainstream media (and Democrats) claim
Well that was your first mistake listening c 2 c. When did this site turn into extreme right wing dribble.
Regardless of the accuracy of collecting data, the chart shows the job market in a similar state that lead to recessions in the past: rising unemployment and falling job opening. The major difference is this state has existed twice as long as previous recession harbingers, yet no recession has been called.
This Administration cannot possibly allow a recession to be called. They would look lost, confused, and inept at best, at that point! They have so played this in the opposite direction, and must keep it that way until they can’t, or not their call to make any longer.
I can’t speak for other areas, but where I am, the help wanted signs are dragging as ties have weathered away, many stained, and some faded. They will leave these up forever, because they need workers, and that won’t stop anytime soon.
Many people are now working under the table. Many because they have no choice, and some because they don’t want to pay the taxes because they need that extra for themselves and their families. These lower paying jobs suffer as a result imo.
I know so many people working several part-time jobs, because they can’t find work in their fields full-time. It’s a problem that will get worse, as those jobs start falling by the wayside as well, and more company closings occur.
I see very bad times coming for many elderly, and young. If you were not prepared, it’s probably too late. If you are, then you have made, or are making your hunker down move to wait things out as comfortably as possible.
God Speed
These job reports are meaningless without providing data on how many vaccine injured people are unable to work thereby creating job openings.
People unable to work do not “create job openings” because, by not producing, they cannot spend without generosity from others – overall they reduce aggregate demand
People who are severely disabled by the Covid Toxic Shots… and are forced to quit working (there are millions in America alone)…
Create job openings.
Is it so difficult to understand?
They also create jobs… in the health care industry
Sounds like a remake of the Broken Window Fallacy.
Mish,
I’ve always been pretty suspicious of the JOLTS reports (especially after the Pandemic surge in reported openings to something like 11-12 million).
Basically, I find it pretty hard to believe that (allegedly) there are 10-12 million openings when only 2-3 million *hires* ever actually result, there is not an *explosion* in pay to rectify the alleged 12 million vs. 2.5 million mismatch, and employment-to-population ratios – while healthy – are not setting records.
If the G can’t get actual payroll adds right (recently 33% over estimation = 1 million phantom jobs) then I am dubious of the G’s “openings” estimates.
What are your thoughts about JOLTs accuracy?
I’d love to see a post on the issue.
Any thoughts on the Nvidia subpoenas ? I expect multiple tech and non tech companies to at least get subpoenas by DoJ and Congress for monopolistic behavior.
The jobs were never real. A lot of companies have stopped hiring H1B candidates foe multiple reasons.
Indian accents are pretty annoying.
My dad tried to change his indian accent, but after around 12 years old, it’s too late. They can’t do anything about it.
On 1/20/2024, Continued un-employment claims were 2.181M. Last week, they were 1.851M, down from 1.945M in July. At least in terms of claims, we’re still nowhere near critical levels which historically speaking would have to rise above 2.3M and keep moving towards 2.5M before we can say a recession is imminent.
Good factual article. Still a hot/inflationary jobs market, but it’s clear it won’t last.
what element of this is hot or inflationary?
Ten job openings for every nine available workers *despite* an additional ten million illegal workers in the country. The spending of those immigrants is inflationary in housing, BTW, as housing has limited availability.
Hmm… Contrary to that, my sense is that the absolute level of “openings” is not meaningful in long-term (decadal…) comparisons, since the job market’s structure has changed, as has the survey response rate for JOLTS.
But the trends are likely meaningful. And the trends in openings, hires, total separations and quits are all “downward”. In fact, Hires, Separations and Quits are all back down to 2007 levels, despite the population being considerably larger today.
Historically the only time one sees all 4 of those data series trending downwards … is just before or during recessions. (look at 2000-2001, 2007-2009 and compare with today.)
Respectively disagree with the premise that the job market is still inflationary. Very strong correlation between Private Avg Hourly Earnings YoY and the JOLTS to unemployed ratio (job openings/unemployed workers). Ratio now down to 1.07, portending further slowdown in wage growth.
The Goldilocks economy continues to roar.
, Sachs said that the lack of background on what led to Trump being shot is what happens when the government refuses to level with citizens.https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13810051/Columbia-University-professor-Jeffrey-Sachs-issues-chilling-warning-Trump-assassination.html
Must be true because GS said it. Good Grief.
Joy through unemployment. Hope through SNAP
Turns out that Kamala might have lifted her “Joy” program from Hitler:
“Strength Through Joy (Kraft durch Freude) was set up in Nazi Germany so that all aspects of a worker’s non-working time were looked after. Strength Through Joy supervised after-work activities, holidays and leisure time. Strength Through Joy served two main purposes. The first was to ensure that no one had too much time on their hands to get involved in untoward activities against the state. There was a belief that idle hands might get involved in anti-state misdemeanours. The second main purpose of Strength Through Joy was to produce an environment within Nazi Germany whereby the average worker would be grateful to the state for providing activities and holidays that in ‘normal’ circumstances they could not afford as individuals”
historylearingsite.co.uk
Hop on this MSM.
People wouldn’t have to turn to state if the private sector were so great. The private sector wouldn’t employ anyone as the goal is always efficient profit. This isn’t gonna go well for humans as the era of AI begins.
Infinite profit, infinite stock market gains and infinite unemployment are possible at the same time in this world.
Yeah, I was thinking of the movies AI (Steven Spielberg) and I Robot (Will Smith), and they hit on what you were saying about humans being displaced by AI and robots.
Lots of prophecy in those Hollywood movies. Now Hollywood produces Woke non-sense films.
Kamala is FAR RIGHT!!! Far Right! Far right! Kick her off social media. Arrest her for wrongthink. Also, her step-daughter supports Hamas. Just one more reason to put Harris in prison.