New Covid-19 Alarm Bells in the UK, Ridiculous or Not?

Six000mileyear

4 years ago

The chart of 7 day average of cases is very interesting because the continental Europe had double peaks, while the UK had one big spike. I think it reveals more about people’s behaviors than the virus itself.

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Northeaster

4 years ago

Why would anyone listen to this guy? He moved to another country so his kids could get in-person schooling! lol

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njbr

4 years ago

While we can all pretend we are past the worst, nature is still trying….

Reuters yesterday……Authorities in Vietnam have detected a new coronavirus variant that is a combination of the Indian and UK COVID-19 variants and spreads quickly by air, the health minister said on Saturday.

After successfully containing the virus for most of last year, Vietnam is grappling with a rise in infections since late April that accounts for more than half of the total 6,856 registered cases. So far, there have been 47 deaths.

“Vietnam has uncovered a new COVID-19 variant combining characteristics of the two existing variants first found in India and the UK,” Health Minister Nguyen Thanh Long said, describing it as a hybrid of the two known variants.

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Webej

4 years ago

Reply to njbr

Do you realize there are thousands of variants, and that many of the mutations have shown up in different various and in different combinations with other mutations? There may be immune escape sooner or later, but we’ve been to this rodeo now so many times. Without scientific studies to confirm immune escape and other properties of the virus, you should not think every variant is some game changer.

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RonJ

4 years ago

Dr. Peter McCullough said that someone at the Mayo Clinic authored a piece stating that HCQ caused scarring in the heart. Dr. McCullough confronted the author about the claim and said he received a “conciliatory letter” from the author admitting the claim was not true. Dr. McCullough also noted there were other “Incredibly flawed papers published” that exaggerated cardiac events.

Dr. McCullough talked about the “fake paper” that was published in Lancet which resulted in the FDA blocking any usage of HCQ. Dr. McCullough said that papers are peer reviewed so that false data does not get published. How was it then that the fake paper got published? Why was there even an emergency use authorization for HCQ in the first place, when as the doctor explained, those only apply to brand new drugs, not existing FDA approved drugs?

Why was there an EUA restriction on HCQ to only in patient usage on a drug which didn’t need an EUA in the first place? Outpatient was the best use of HCQ in combination with other therapies, yet that was prohibited.

Anyone starting to put some dots together?

What became the standard outpatient treatment for Covid patients? As Dr. McCullough put it, do nothing.

Wait at home, if the patient has difficulty breathing, go to the hospital. Dr. McCullough found that unacceptable when there was time to treat patients in an effort to keep them out of the hospital and from dying.

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Doug78

4 years ago

Reply to RonJ

The Lancent paper was a scandal and inexcusable for a journal of Lancet’s reputation. The researchers used metadata without checking the source. It all came from a “company’ ran by a guy inside his home near Chicago. The data was all made up and the scientists used it without question. The paper stayed up something like three days before kit had to be retracted which is devastating to the journal and the scientists involved. All that was done because there was pressure to discredit HCQ and other off-the-shelf treatments at any price.

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RonJ

4 years ago

“Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is sounding a Covid alarm in the UK. False alarm?”

Likely.

“Cases in Delhi, where Ivermectin was begun on April 20, dropped from 28,395 to just 2,260 on May 22. This represents an astounding 92% drop. Likewise, cases in Uttar Pradesh have dropped from 37,944 on April 24 to 5,964 on May 22 – a decline of 84%.”

The Indian variant is outpatient & prophylactically treatable, i presume.

Here, we had our own variant, the California variant, which was supposed to be more contagious.

That narrative has long since disappeared.

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RonJ

4 years ago

https://vimeo.com/553518199

Everyone should watch this interview. Dr. Peter MCullough wrote 40 peer reviewed papers related to the pandemic. He personally took on acquiring Covid information from around the country, collating and trying to get it out to doctors so they could treat patients.

He talks about the “malfeasance by those in authority.”

“I think there was an enormous effort to suppress early treatment” Dr. McCullough detailed the numerous deviations from standards that were imposed on this particular virus, which he says was treatable in early stages to keep people out of the hospital and from dying. He says that some 85% of the 600,000 people who died, could have been saved by early treatment. He talked about how medical historians will note this was a shameful period

in U.S. medical history.

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Scooot

4 years ago

This is the headline on BBC news tonight.

“The head of NHS Providers has said “very, very few” Covid patients in hospital in England have received two coronavirus jabs – showing the vaccines provide “very high” levels of protection.”

I think they’re currently working through people in their 40’s & 50’s with the 2nd jabs. All older people have had 2 except those that refused for whatever reason.

There’s not enough data yet to judge, we just have to wait and see how well the vaccinations protect everyone. In the meantime it’s a race to give everyone else their 2nd jab. 21st June is the date they were hoping to ease restrictions more fully.

I think it’s more of a worry on mainland Europe where vaccinations aren’t so advanced.

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whirlaway

4 years ago

Vaccine coverage in the US is unlikely to reach even 70 percent in most places, let alone 85 or 90 percent or more. The upshot is that there will continue to be a spate of localized outbreaks all over.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/the-next-phase-of-the-us-pandemic-pockets-of-localized-outbreaks

“No single outbreak or super-spreader event drove Fairbank’s surge, says Angelique Ramirez, a physician and the chief medical officer of the main health care system in Fairbanks. Rather, this spike is the inevitable result of reopening with low vaccination rates. As such, it’s a grim preview of what could be the next phase of the pandemic in the United States.”

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Zardoz

4 years ago

Reply to whirlaway

Now that I’m vaccinated, I feel a lot more sanguine. The people that won’t get vaccinated are free to take their chances, and I am kind of glad they are. If nothing much happens to them, it’ll tell me that I’ve overreacted a bit. If they start dying off en-masse, it’ll tell me the opposite. It’s an experiment I’ll be observing with interest over the coming months.

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Maximus_Minimus

4 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

No need to feel bad about being overcautious. I have a had covid and recovered fully. It was eight days of high fever, frailness, and total loss of appetite, and worrisome slurping sounds from the lungs. In total two weeks of total misery. I don’t want to repeat it. I didn’t catch it by being casual about it; it’s a lottery.

Now I took a shot of Pfizer vaccine in case my strain was different, and had some side effects, but that’s OK.

Those who maintain it’s a hoax, or natural immunity, can take their opinion and shove it where the sun doesn’t shine.

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Webej

4 years ago

Reply to whirlaway

Again ignoring those inoculated naturally, which according to Makary is about 45% of the population.

Is natural inoculation better? Yes say recent studies.

High titers of antibodies are associated with severe disease; the better your immunity, the lower the number of antibodies upon clearing the virus.

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Zardoz

4 years ago

Reply to Webej

Maybe natural works better, but I didn’t get sick from either shot. I’ll take that over a week of sick.

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whirlaway

4 years ago

Reply to Webej

Re: “inoculated naturally”. Are there any serious studies that say how effective it is? The vaccine is proven to be highly effective. So, I would depend on that rather than assume that I am “inoculated naturally”. Btw, that is the kind of thing that India believed in, so much so that they were busy exporting tons of vaccines to other countries. And then, they got shafted 🙁

This “natural inoculation” thing is precisely the kind of BS that will keep COVID going for quite a while now, with regular outbreaks here and there all the time.

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Carl_R

4 years ago

Reply to Webej

It was my understanding that the reverse was true, and that antibodies from having had it fade quickly, and were gone by six months, whereas the antibodies from the vaccine last “at least six months”. I had an antibody test, and it was negative, but i was told that since I didn’t test for it until about five months after the exposure, it would be expected that antibodies would not show up. Another data point is that when they were looking for donors for convalescent plama, the level of antibodies in a donor dropped quickly in most cases, so they kept having to look for new donors.

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Webej

4 years ago

Reply to Carl_R

The level of IgG antibodies is not what protects you. Studies have shown that people who have been infected have bone marrow that will produce antibodies. From SARS we know that such immune memory lasts for at least 17 years. Natural immunity produces a broad spectrum of immune reactions and antibodies against the whole virus; artificial antibodies have a narrower antigen target and bind to less proteins. Natural immunity also gives you cross-reactivity to similar antigens.

There is not a scintilla of evidence that vaccination provides longer lasting or more robust immunity; au contraire.

Natural immunity is also sterilizing and means you don’t pass the virus on; vaccinated people can pass the virus on asymptomatically upon infection, although presumably to a lesser degree than symptomatic infections.

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whirlaway

4 years ago

Reply to Webej

And of course, there are reliable tests to establish whether any individual has, or does not have, this supposed “natural immunity”, right??!! Yeah right! LOL.

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Carl_R

4 years ago

Reply to Webej

The only way to know will be to see who gets infected, how often it is, and how serious. I have read of numerous cases of people who caught Covid 6 months apart, and I personally know three such cases. In some cases, the second infection was more mild than the first time, and in other cases it was worse. There is no evidence of ADE, but there is evidence that there is not a lot of long term protection from having had it.

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Eddie_T

4 years ago

Australia is taking the Indian variants seriously. Melbourne is locked down for a week. They’re calling it a “circuit breaker”.

https://youtu.be/hNp_asjCfWk

I don’t expect to see the UK get slammed again the way Ding is predicting. Good comments by several already explain why, and I agree.

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Webej

4 years ago

First of all, Covid has perfectly followed expected seasonal prevalence of respiratory pathogens.

That makes a July surge in England very unlikely.
This is the umpteenth time that everybody has gotten excited about a mutant;

none of this scare-mongering has panned out so far, and the likelihood of vaccine escape is very small.
No analysis of whether these cases are break-through cases of vaccinated people
Future waves will increasingly affect those with good innate immunity, such as the young. That is what happens when you have mass vaccination of a leaky non-sterilizing vaccine into the maw of an epidemic. We know this from veterinary analogues.
Indian states that have mandated Ivermectin have been crushing the numbers: the data set is univocal.
These people persist on the data-contradicted notion that epidemic dynamics are mostly controlled by government measures.

For some there can never be enough fear-mongering.

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Carl_R

4 years ago

One factor is that in England, people have generally only gotten the first shot. Thus, instead of 94% protection, they have only 80% protection, or something like that. So, it may be that they have only 40% protection against the Indian variant. That said, even though the antibodies are less effective, they still have some effect, and should slow the virus enough that most people only get mild cases. The proof will be in what actually happens, however. Deaths from Covid in the UK are currently around 6 a day. Wake me if they get over 100/day (at one point they were over 1500 a day, so by comparison, 100/day is still quite small.)

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Casual_Observer2020

4 years ago

Looks like antibodies are 3x-6x reduced with the India strain even with the mRNA-based vaccines. Covid is adapting. The boosters are going to be needed to stop the new strains, especially in older age groups.

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Maximus_Minimus

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

Not boosters, a new vaccine mix. Only variations to the spike protein matter, so a new mRNA that makes the spike protein will be needed, and just like flu, the vaccine would be a mix of a few select strains.

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caradoc-again

4 years ago

We have been told vaccination is effective against the Indian strain that happens to be prevalent where vaccination rates are low. Get the jabs, move on in life.

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Doug78

4 years ago

No. The raw numbers are very low so an 72% increase from a number of 78 cases is not noteworthy. Ding has a Ph.D. in nutrition and not in anything related to epidemiology or virology nevertheless he is very prolific on twitter. I prefer to get my information from sources who are actually in the field and know what they are talking about.

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shamrock

4 years ago

Hard to tell, if the strain is twice as contagious as the original, a 50% vaccination rate won’t be enough to stop it.

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whirlaway

4 years ago

Reply to shamrock

Even for the original COVID, the required rate of vaccination is 70 to 85 percent. I am pretty sure no state in the US has gotten anywhere near 70 percent. fully vaccinated.

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Jackula

4 years ago

Reply to whirlaway

If you do the math on Covid deaths rates and excess deaths in the US and back into the total number that have had Covid we have quite a lot of people that have immunity from having Covid, probably north of 65%.

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whirlaway

4 years ago

Reply to Jackula

One, there is no reliable and established way of showing that someone is immune after having COVID, and the estimates of how long that immunity lasts, are all over the place.

Two, it is stupid to think that those who didn’t die from COVID, are perfectly fine. The reality is quite different –

https://www.npr.org/2021/03/21/979809515/months-after-contracting-virus-2-women-suffer-crippling-effects-of-long-covid

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