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New Home Sales Did Not Really Rise, They Fell Nearly 7 Percent

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9 comments on New Home Sales Did Not Really Rise, They Fell Nearly 7 Percent

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Huge Negative Revisions 

The Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction Report shows huge negative revisions for September.

  • Sales: New Home Sales Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 745,000. This is 0.4 percent above the revised September rate of 742,000, but is 23.1 percent below the October 2020 estimate of 969,000. 
  • Sales Price: The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2021 was $407,700. The average sales price was $477,800. 
  • For Sale Inventory: The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 389,000. 
  • Supply: This represents a supply of 6.3 months at the current sales rate.  

New Homes Sold 

Last month the census department reported a whopping 800,000 homes sold at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate.

This month the census department reports sales as 745,000 SAAR.

This was a reported “increase” in sales of 0.4% over the revised September numbers of 742,000 SAAR.

Actually, new home sales fell 6.9% from the September report.  

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Eddie_T
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T

Taibbi spent a long time in Russia so he can compare the US
to other countries. Those who have spent long times overseas know how great our
county is and like Taibbi love it for its strengths and its failings but we
have accomplished things that no other country has. He is also right on
something else. Embassy Marines do give the best parties! 

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Agave
Agave
4 years ago
It’s come to light recently that some of the numbers around a different area of the economy – jobs – have been routinely mis-stated under a trump appointed Bureau of Labor Statistics head, William Beach, a former Heritage Foundation employee. Apparently, the numbers  in several recent months released under the Biden administration have been regularly underestimated, which makes a big splash in the main headlines when released. These have been adjusted quite highly upwards after the fact (which gets buried on back pages of newspapers and mostly ignored), painting quite a different real picture of job growth.
The opposite happened in the last year of trump, where numbers were initially overstated, then revised downwards after the fact.
It’s time for Biden to replace this incompetent clown.
Concurrently, the number of Americans applying for unemployment just hit a 52 year low. A little quote from that article:
“I don’t even think you can call it an economic recovery anymore,” Chris Rupkey, chief economist for FWDBONDS, https://twitter.com/YahooFinance/status/1463544103220695042.
“Remember the best economy in 50 years late in 2019? Well, we’re way,
way, way above that right now. I don’t even think you can call this a
reopening of the economy after the pandemic — we’re miles and miles
ahead of the fourth quarter of 2019.”
So, while the supply chain and inflation issues continue, the news on the economic front is actually much more positive than the MSM has been portraying it.
Another interesting revision recently is the embarrassing error by the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation initially stating that millionaires would be getting bigger tax breaks out of the BBB. I was puzzled when I heard that, as it was designed NOT to be that way. Well well well. They made a mistake, they were wrong, the millionaires will actually be paying more on this bill that will help the middle class and average people, according to newly released corrections to the calculations:
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Siliconguy
Siliconguy
4 years ago
Reply to  Agave
I doubt that one person in a very large bureaucracy could seriously mess up that many statistics. More likely their methodology is overstating the situation when things are good and understating them when things are bad. Too much weight on the derivative.
Or too much emphasis on getting the numbers, any number, out on time when everyone is watching. I faced that problem myself more than once. 
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Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago
If I go by my Japan theory, all homes that get built will have higher prices over time and the banks will securitize them and find a buyer that will rent to the locals. If you take out the parts of GDP that are non-productive, you really have no growth left. There is an underlying economy in American but most of it is not productive. We’ve become an economy that is a function of low rates and central bank monetization.
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Mish
Mish
4 years ago
I have great news – for me
I could not even boot this PC – but back now on om main computer – 
Restored to a point where I can hopefully fix the the original problem
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Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
For Sale Inventory: The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 389,000.
28% of that 389K haven’’t actually broken ground…..not sure how you get to 6 months inventory when the inventory is still an empty lot and a set of plans. 
Here’s some counterpoint, fwiw. New houses are only part of the housing market.
October 2021 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report
  • The national inventory of active listings declined by 21.9% over last year, while the total inventory of unsold homes, including pending listings, declined by 14.8%. The inventory of active listings is down 51.9% compared to 2019.
  • Newly listed homes are down 2.3% nationally compared to a year ago, and down 4.8% for large metros over the past year. Sellers are still listing at rates 11.6% lower than typical 2017 to 2019 levels. 
  • The October national median listing price for active listings was $380,000, up 8.6% compared to last year and up 21.8% compared to 2019. In large metros, median listing prices grew by 5.2% compared to last year, on average. 
  • Nationally, the typical home spent 45 days on the market in October, down 8 days from the same time last year and down 21 days from 2019.
Overall, other than new houses, inventory is still very low. New active listings have been in a declining trend…..and there is less inventory in housing than at any time in the last six years. Here, inventory has increased….to a one month supply, Good graphics in the link.

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Mish
Mish
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
Thanks Eddie – I have more graphs – Will add your comments to a new post. 
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ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant
4 years ago
To get to a net number they should deduct how many homes were demolished.  I believe that number is around 300,000 to 400,000 annually.
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