The Census Department revised last month’s blowout report lower by 6.3 percentage points and tacked on another 2.5 percent decline in June. 
Census Department Numbers
- New Home Sales: Sales of new single‐family houses in June 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 697,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.5 percent (±12.7 percent) below the revised May rate of 715,000, but is 23.8 percent (±22.5 percent) above the June 2022 estimate of 563,000.
- Sales Price: The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2023 was $415,400. The average sales price was $494,700.
- Months’ Supply: The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 432,000. This represents a supply of 7.4 months at the current sales rate.
Note the margins of error in these New Home Sales reports.
The Bloomberg Econoday consensus was for a pullback in new home sales from 763,000 to 727,000. Amusingly, one economist guessed 772,000 sales. Instead, sales took a dive to 697,000 units, from a steep negative revision in May to 715,000.
New Home Sales Since 1963
New home sales are about where they were in 1963.
New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction
Homes For Sale Discussion
The Census Bureau reports 432,000 homes are “For Sale”. From that, the bureau measures “months’ supply”.
But of those 428,000 homes for sale, only 72,000 have been completed. 100,000 have not been started and might not be for years.
Builder to prospect: “See this vacant lot? We call this a home for sale.”
Month’s Supply
Based on a fictitious number of homes for sale, we can calculate fictitious supply in months at the current rate of sales, plus or minus 12 percent or so, and practically guaranteed to be heavily revised next month on top of it all.
Finally Time to Short the Homebuilders Because It Doesn’t Get Any Better
On July 21, I commented Finally Time to Short the Homebuilders Because It Doesn’t Get Any Better
Today we see it wasn’t even as good as they said it was.
Beware the Huge Negative Lag Impact of Three Rounds of Covid Stimulus
If you missed it, please see Beware the Huge Negative Lag Impact of Three Rounds of Covid Stimulus
That post will tie a lot of recent ideas together.
