New home sales remain stuck in a broad range. Median and average prices decline.
The New Residential Construction report shows transactions floundering with year-over-year declines in price.
New Home Sales
- Sales of new single-family houses in July 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 652,000.
- This is 0.6 percent (±15.5 percent) below the June 2025 rate of 656,000, and is 8.2 percent (±14.0 percent)below the July 2024 rate of 710,000.
- The Census Department revised June sales from 627,000 to 656,000. That’s an upward revision of 4.6 percent.
For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply
- The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July 2025 was 499,000.
- This is 0.6 percent (±1.2 percent) below the June 2025 estimate of 502,000, and is 7.3 percent (±5.7 percent) above the July 2024 estimate of 465,000.
- This represents a supply of 9.2 months at the current sales rate. The months’ supply is virtually unchanged (±16.7 percent) from the June 2025 estimate of 9.2 months, and is 16.5 percent (±19.0 percent) above the July 2024 estimate of 7.9 months.
Sales Price
- The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2025 was $403,800. This is 0.8 percent (±5.9 percent) below the June 2025 price of $407,200, and is 5.9 percent (±8.5 percent) below the July 2024 price of $429,000.
- The average sales price of new houses sold in July 2025 was $487,300. This is 3.6 percent (±8.0 percent) below the June 2025 price of $505,300, and is 5.0 percent (±8.6 percent) below the July 2024 price of $513,200.
New Home Sales Annualized vs Homes for Sale Detail
The supply of new homes for sale is pressuring prices and incentives.
New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction
The supply of completed homes for sale is the most since July of 2009.
I don’t consider vacant land a home for sale, but the census department does.
Of the alleged 499,000 homes for sales, 111,000 have not been started. The other numbers are historically on the high side.
New Homes for Sale Supply
The Census Department calculates a 9.2 month supply at the current rate of sales.
I suggest 7.1 months counting only firm commitments to build. Finished supply is high and rising.
The Fed Is Incompetent by Design
Blame the Fed for wild swings in housing affordability.
I discussed this in Fedthink! The Fed Is Incompetent by Design and Can’t Be Fixed
Today’s Pertinent Conclusion
We are trapped in “Fedthink”, especially the nonsensical proposition that two percent inflation is a good thing despite the fact that the Fed is clueless on how to measure inflation in the first place.
The Greenspan Fed, Bernanke Fed, Yellen Fed, and the Powell Fed all ignored housing prices as a measure of inflation.
Yellen even wanted to make up for lack of not enough inflation.
The Housing Top Is Likely In, Case-Shiller Home Prices Drop Again
On July 29, 2025, I commented The Housing Top Is Likely In, Case-Shiller Home Prices Drop Again
Prices are now down the third consecutive month. [But it does not even register on a chart.]
Demographically, the upcoming boomer die-off will add tremendous supply to the housing market. Shutting down the border will slow the rate of current demand.
Related Posts
August 22, 2025: Existing-Home Sales Rise 2 Percent to Nowhere, Expect Steep Price Declines
NAR-reported median prices will now decline for many months.
August 23, 2025: It’s Now Twice as Expensive to Buy an Entry-Level Home than Rent
Thinking of buying a starter home? Be careful!
Powell Admits Prior Monetary Framework Was Hugely Flawed
At the annual Jackson Hole meeting this year Powell Admits Prior Monetary Framework Was Hugely Flawed
The Fed just announced a new monetary framework. Is it any better?
The short answer is the new framework is nearly as flawed as before, and the Fed still holds many disproved economic theories. See above for details.
For sale months supply might rise to about 2.5 months, a lower high, before turning around. In construction will be either on hold, cont in a turtle pace, or abandoned, written off. The 2009 bubble, at six months supply, will not be repeated. The Fed will not have to save the RE market as Yellen had to, after 2009. In July 2025 months of supply are less than 2009 halfway. In July 2025 All rates are tilting down. Why: who cares. It took two years to liquidate 2009 excess inventory. Thereafter the RE market was lifeless for more than a decade. The bottom was in Jan 2022.
Lifeless means: either little completion, sold out, or first little activity, thereafter sold out.
Churches Are a Rare Construction Bright Spot
https://archive.is/atUZb#selection-525.0-525.44
I did hear that they have more money than… well you know.
Very timely. Just yesterday a friend and I were discussing building a church to claim tax exempt status. I think that’s what all of this construction is about, more tax free graft.
“Completed”, wink, wink. This number doesn’t include homes that only lack connection to city electric and/or water. In other words, add 100,000 shadow inventory.
A government “Certificate of Occupancy” is the only difference between completed and not completed.
False scarcity is where the big money is made right now, and every business is currently playing this game. The Covid supply shock opened businesses eyes that if they only made product visible to customers in onesies and twosies rather than in terms of their actual inventory, they could make bank. Don’t fall for it. “Manging” listings to artificially inflate prices is a game no one should be playing. This goes for rental “vacancy rates”, too. Walk away. Make arrangements to live with family, friends, or other people looking for roomates for the next six months or even two years, but don’t play this losing game.
The new builds are concentrated in pandemic locations, so those sales are in trouble because work from home is over and people are moving back to big coastal job centers.
The new builds should have been concentrated in suburbs outside of big coastal cities, but they were not.
What a screw up.
They were operating under the “Build it and they will buy it” delusion. Not all there fault, as Harris / Biden were pushing homes, Builders were fighting for the Buyers, money was free flowing earned or not, and most were simply getting what they wanted, because they wanted it. Banks approving everything.
Want a new car, here’s a car loan. Want to go to college, here’s a school loan, want to travel, here’s a loan for that, and a loan for this and that and then some… Money seemed to be falling from the trees it appeared. Ask and you shall receive. Even the colleges realized it and forced loans they can “Make You Pay” at some point, or “You will Own Nothing” I think I may have heard that before someplace?
– New home sales remain stuck in a broad range. Median and average prices decline.
> Sales are lower now than they were “Last Month”, “Last Year” and probably will get much worse from here.
>> School Loans have “Removed Potential Buyers” along with Car Loans, and Rental Cost. Many also now past the cling on “Parents Insurance” and must pay for that too. A taste of travel and FUN! Was being baked in the “Cake of Expectations” and now we have a boatload of such individuals, but now existing in a “New World Order” so to speak.
1. Your “School Loans” Are Your Responsibility
2. “Credit Scores” really do matter
3. All “Insurance” is Expensive and a Necessity
4. You must Save and Sacrifice to gather a Downpayment for a Home
5. Start behaving like a “Financially Responsible” Individual
6. No, you don’t get everything that you want
7. Depend on “Yourself” as others may be untrustworthy
8. Only You can truly take care of yourself
9-100 ETC.
Some old but resurrected. Some not optional, Some Extremely hard, ALL should lead to “ Good Things” Ahead!