As with existing-home sales, new home sales are stuck in the mud.
The New Residential Construction report for June shows sales rose 0.6 percent. It it barely registers on a chart. New homes for sale is another matter.
New Home Sales
- Sales of new single-family houses in June 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 627,000.
- This is 0.6 percent (±13.3 percent) above the May 2025 rate of 623,000, and is 6.6 percent (±16.2 percent) below the June 2024 rate of 671,000.
- Note the margin of error on the 0.6 percent rise.
For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply
- The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June 2025 was 511,000.
- This is 1.2 percent (±1.6 percent) above the May 2025 estimate of 505,000, and is 8.5 percent (±5.4 percent) above the June 2024 estimate of 471,000.
- This represents a supply of 9.8 months at the current sales rate. The months’ supply is 1.0 percent (±16.0 percent) above the May 2025 estimate of 9.7 months, and is 16.7 percent (±20.3 percent) above the June 2024 estimate of 8.4 months.
Sales Price
- The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2025 was $401,800. This is 4.9 percent (±6.9 percent) below the May 2025 price of $422,700, and is 2.9 percent (±5.9 percent) below the June 2024 price of $414,000.
- The average sales price of new houses sold in June 2025 was $501,000. This is 2.0 percent (±8.9 percent) below the May 2025 price of $511,500, and is 1.1 percent (±9.4 percent) above the June 2024 price of $495,500.
New Home Sales Annualized vs Homes for Sale Detail
The number of new homes for sale is the highest since 514,000 in October of 2007, just before the great recession.
New Homes for Sale Supply in Months
The problem with this supply analysis is that it’s nonsense.
The Commerce Department counts vacant lots as a “new home for sale”. I consider that preposterous.
I will cover supply, in detail, in my next post. But here’s a teaser: Completed homes for sale is historically high and rising.
In case you missed it, please see Existing-Home Sales Decline 2.7 Percent, Median Price New Record High
Hooray, higher prices? That’s the message from the NAR.
Apologies for the late post today. I have had a bad case of pericarditis for at least three weeks. It’s been accompanied by severe headaches since July 3. The new meds I am on make me drowsy and I slept 11 hours today.
https://www.whatispericarditis.com/pericarditis-symptoms
We’ll forgive this time, but we pay good money to read this blog. Get with it, Mike!!!
Jeez man. Take it easy! My brother took a while to recover from that. No shame in resting up.
That doesn’t sound too pleasant. I wish you well in the coming weeks…
Take care! May your headaches disappear.
Take care of yourself.
Best wishes for a speedy recovery 🙏
Best of luck with the new meds! Hope your health improves rapidly.
One thought which I hope is helpful: Trump isn’t the economy. The economy is over 300,000,000 people (or billions if we think globally) all doing what they can/want to make their lives better. There is always some injustice but also those willing to fix things. We will all survive.
So … If ever you do need to take a day or 3 weeks off, not much will really be different. I expect most of us enjoy the debates and discussions, even – or perhaps especially – when we disagree, and we’ll all be here to welcome you back when you return!
Hang in there, rest, and be well, Mish!
Oh, I did not see this until I scrolled down, Mish. I was just in the Hosp for a CardioVersion (heart beat and Afib). IT IS NEVER EASY.
Hang in there and take the advice of this group and give it a rest. We will never miss the next one, Mish. Thanks for everything!
Mish,
Take a break from this and enjoy a bit of R & R. You have earned it!
The Presidents, Priests, Popes, Pederasts and Perverts will be committing their crimes against humanity when you return.
Regards,
Your Fans and Readers
Wow what a class act and an assiduous blogger. Pretty impressive that you’re laid up and still offering us gold nuggets. Take care of number one!
And if Truimp passes his no tax on capital gains from home sales there will be many more investment and second homes for sale. That will bring prices down and add to the already burgeoning supply.
Those with recent mortgages are going to go underwater again and the banks are going to take their homes and be made whole by the government. Oops, I mean the taxpayers are going to make the banks whole even though they took the home.
It’s happened before!
Home builders are in a bind. It’s enticing to complete as many homes as possible to beat tariff increases, but supply is growing while demand is stagnating and threatening to fall further.
LOT’S AND LOT’S OF TDS on this channel
Tell us what he is doing right in your own words
Mish, this type of article is your Forte’. I enjoy them, and they are informative and I feel like you cut through the Bullshit better than anyone.
Mish. You work too hard. Take your camera 📸 and camp 🏕️ out in front of your multicolored cacti and just sit. Relax. We will be here when you are well. Life is too short for all this angst you report about. It will still be here without change when you recuperate. Same shit, different day. Heal thyself.
Pericarditis. U tube & book: Moss Report. Cut stress. Take a summer break. Cut inflammation: organic turmeric (4% curcumin) + black pepper. A rich salad + EVOO, the season (Oct, Nov). Heated ginger. Shiitake, Reishi + Turkey tail pills, along with medication. Get well fast.
I have an issue with both medications and herbals there is no actual guarantee that the active beneficial ingredient is at the same amount across each and every pill or leaf.
Literally billions of such items are sold untested every minute with no comparative testing for active ingredient amount nor effectiveness.
How many home grown pot smokers test each section of bud? How many home gardeners test each fruit or veg for vitamin and mineral content?
No one has ever tested medications for content within a single prescription much less across millions of drug counters.
Many people complain that one day something works and another it does not then used again it is even stronger, third day context.
Wasn’t that the problem with Oxy? Patients would complain it wasn’t working.
The only thing one knows for certain with meds are the date your pharmacy filled the script. How much worse are herbals?
To expand on the med side. Most meds are produced in India or China and the FDA checks active ingredients at X amount of time. I’m too lazy to do the research right now an testing.
If a manufacturer reduces the active ingredient by .005% they save MILLIONS if not more.
After that you get into random changes of fillers and water, learned about that doing Xanax research.
Then we move on to storage and criminal activity, as if criminals don’t actually exchange counterfeits for regular meds.
How long are meds stored at the manufacturer and at what level of recommendation? Then they get shipped with the same two factors involved. Then they get stored again. Then they get shipped again.
Eventually after x amount of shipping times and variety of storage conditions they wind up at some outlet.
With meds usually they are script then the only honest factor is the date they are filled and picked up.
Everyone forgets the manufacturing and supply chain in medications.
If issues apply to nearly any other item manufactured why is this ignored for meds?
And it is worse with herbals and vitamins.
Complain to your doctor and they will be totally unaware of that chain. As if meds appear magically. With herbals and vitamins and diet there is quite a bit of it worked wonders for me anecdotal evidence and just as much it did nothing for me.
8.5 BILLION people and most studies use less than 100k and those are very limited inclusions.
Not only is there the Replication crisis but many of the proven false studies remain included in newer study data.
Peer review is a joke and that system is continually gamed.
I apologize for the rant but I spent years tracking various prescribed meds and was horrified by what I uncovered.
Herbals, vitamins and diet have the same issues but rarely get attention merely acceptance as more “organic” thus healthier.
Pavel Tsatsouline and Joe Rogan discuss diet in this clip. Pavel mentions he avoids vegs because they create poisons to protect themselves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4qVbVJhZaY
A publication called consumer labs does this on nutritional supplements
What is their sample size worldwide?
go to their website
Mish can decide by himself after watching a few episodes of the Moss report. If he wants to try some it’s up to him. The above food was tested for thousands of years in the Mediterranean, India and Japan. It’s blue zone. No fad diets. It’s anti inflammation and anti stem cancer cell killers. Talk to your doc. Skip on mushroom pills. Try 18/6 or 17/7 and take a break. Life is more important than writing logs !
You missed the point regarding active ingredients ans testing.
Michael, when we return to Portugal, I feel better within a month. IT IS the food (organically produced, locally) and the fish quality is high.
I am on a huge cocktail of anti-oxidants.
I did not follow surgeon’s advice to remove my prostate.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/cancer-free-i-beat-prostate-cancer-mish-the-guinea-pig/
At least 4 other people tried what I did with similar results.
PSA test results yesterday: 5.1
Under 6.5 is normal
Dr Ralph Moss had a prostate cancer. For years he researched articles looking for answers. AI can read in milliseconds. I asked AI: can turmeric + black pepper. Can watermelon, Can cooking shiitake for 1/2 hour. Can EVOO. Can garlic. Can shogaol anti oxidants…I rather listen to a human being who can judge and cares about “Preventive Medicine”.
“I rather listen to a human being who can judge and cares about “Preventive Medicine””, What a doctor ( or person) does not know they don’t know.
In the end it is mindset and genetics there are no magic cures because there are far too many variations in not only Cancers but humans.
I’m a certified Reiki master since 1998. I felt Ki, or Qi, in the martial arts in the late 1970’s.
But from the Psych classes in my Cultural Studies B.A. I learned simple contact releases those wonderful brain chemicals to make us feel better.
qi psychosis is recognized in Asia as resulting from bad practice or unprepared individuals.
Originally Kundalini psychosis, which is the exact same energy, was described the same way.
Now the Yoga instructors gamed Wikipedia into merely stating it is a side effect of the Chakras opening.
Now the question becomes how many Yoga moms are on meds due to bad practices advanced by Brad with five years or less merely doing poses or maybe one year to be certified?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zouhuorumo
Zouhuorumo (Chinese: 走火入魔; pinyin: zǒuhuǒrùmó) is a syndrome of psychological and somatic symptoms related to the practice of qigong and other self-cultivation methods. Symptoms of zouhuorumo include mental and physical agitation and pain, thought disorder in severe cases and other neurological symptoms such as altered sensation. There are several theoretical models as to the cause of zouhuorumo. The syndrome may stem from overly intense focus on the practice, incorrect performance of the practice, or the practice of qigong by individuals prone to psychological disturbance. A swell in the popularity of qigong in China in the 1980s and 1990s became known as qigong fever. In response, the Government of China referred to zouhuorumo as “qigong deviation”….
Zouhuorumo is a syndrome of psychological and somatic symptoms related to the practice of qigong, a system of movements intended to improve the body, mind and spirit. A causal pathological link between qigong and the syndrome has not been identified.[3] Similar syndromes have been noted in yoga, meditation and hypnosis. Zouhuorumo can occur in both the clergy the laity. In most cases the symptoms are short-lived and self-resolving.[4]
The symptoms tend to cluster in one of three groups. A first group includes anxiety, panic episodes, automatic movements, shivering and convulsing. The second group involves auditory and visual hallucinations. The third cluster includes delusions and psychoses.[5] Sufferers may complain of emotional exhaustion (previously known as neurasthenia). Somatic symptoms include regional or generalised pain and other abnormal sensations.[6]: 165–167
Although an ancient practice, qigong had a popular revival in China in the 1980s and 1990s. The Government of China expressed reservations about this qigong mass practice, commercialization and the rise of both qigong grand-masters and fraudsters. In response, Hence, zouhuorumo was referred to as qigong deviation.[5][7][
Good luck.
Melanoma here. I started researching Cancer and stumbled across Retraction watch to be utterly horrified how many Cancer studies were retracted yet remained in other sources.
Something like 1000 Cancer papers were retracted by the same research publisher that year.
You’re the man, Mish. Cheers to your good health!
Utube, Moss Report with Jane Mclleland discussing cancer treatment with
of labl drugs.
Kind of Ot but Japan says NO DEAL signed
Found here first https://x.com/dariocpx/status/1948270104002838922
Then Google AI “Japanese chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, has publicly stated that he is not currently considering signing a legally binding agreement in the ongoing trade negotiations with the United States.
This stance indicates that while progress has been made towards a trade deal, as confirmed by Akazawa himself, Japan is not inclined to formalize the agreement with a legally enforceable document at this stage. Instead, the possibility of a joint statement is being considered as an alternative.
Akazawa further emphasized that he did not discuss the specific implementation details of the trade deal with President Trump or other White House officials during their meetings. When questioned about the idea of a quarterly compliance evaluation of the deal, he reiterated that no such discussions have taken place”
RIP HULK HOGAN.
Every one is waiting for Trump’s zero percent rates. Private equity, hedge funds, new families and the idle rich are all waiting for Trump to ramrod the rates down to zero a la 2008-2020 before anyone takes out one more loan. This will happen .. if Trump has to draft Powell into the Army to get rid of him .. it will happen. Despite what Midnight thinks, dictators get what they want.
What happened to 10% interest cap on credit cards?
You’re doing it again. Rates went UP during Trump’s first term until covid so your 2008-2020 is again incorrect, and conveniently omits the, ahem, “Dictator”‘s inability to have 0% interest from 2017-2019 and again so far in 2025. I ask once more, do dictators have to wait to get their way..and if so, does that mean they actually aren’t a dictator? Sheesh.
Can’t you just be factual and have an opinion about what Trump wants without the false statements of him dicatatorially “ramrodding” rates to 0 ala 2008-2020 (actual 2008-2016)?
If zero rates happen it will be because a) the market moved it there before b) the Fed moves it there because c) economic BAD things have occurred. Otherwise ask yourself how it would work, in reality, for a politician to move rates to 0, down from FOUR PERCENT! And if you believe it, grab some long-ish bonds and make bank instead of another reason to Trump bash with false info.
They justified the zero in 2008+ due to the great recession, and since lots of big people were borrowing lots of money they didnt have to repay any time soon, they kept the nonsense going (meanwhile Grandma got no interest on her savings). It was not a straight line zero 2008-2020, but it was zero enough that anyone paying attention refied their mortgage six or seven times. I know I did. And yes Trump is worse than a typical dictator. Trump is a low-self-esteem dictator. Just like Adolph.
If someone … ANYONE .. had bought some of Hitler’s stupid paintings, maybe WW2 wouldnt have happened …
2008 style real estate crash ✅
Smoot-Hawley act 2.0 ✅
Fed independence threatened ✅
Bond market wavering (will explode if Powell gets fired) ✅
Inflation on all fronts, beef unobtainable again ✅
Here’s a question for you Mish, one I really can’t answer: Why in God’s name is everyone acting like this is normal? Why is the stock market screaming upward in the face of what is indisputably a capital R Recession starting to unfold?
I’m a history guy, not a finance guy. But even I can see an uncomfortably long list of political and economic parallels between America today and a lot of other situations that all ended badly.
Youre acting like big things in life have immediate effects. The US is an aircraft carrier. It takes miles and miles and miles before a turn is accomplished and anything changes. As long as the electricity is on, the gas stations are full and the grocery stores still have Ben and Jerrys, nobody cares. Only people who comment on blogs care. 🙂
It bodes very badly for what happens when water starts making it to the cabins. Generally a very well armed populace, a gestapo, and a depression are a very bad combo. Now add the president being all over the child rape island files and we’re really cooking with gas I guess. What a dumb time to be alive.
Eh, we could have been alive before they had novacaine. 🙂
Dumb time all depends on if nukes get used.
I’ve read the Metro books and played the games.
Seems Russia has this baked into their culture.
So basically the genpop is stupid?
Always has been
Just a thought but maybe the US is meant to fall. US, EU, Israel get limited access from the rest of the world who are involved with BRICS.
Recent history suggests these are the bullies (not the BRICS and associated nations) and failed bullies at that.
Then the global reset people are running according to plan.
Memory may be faulty but I seem to recall None dare call it conspiracy stating the plan was to lower the US lifestyle while raising that of the rest of the world. It was published in 1971.
Everything dies at some point, but NO ONE wants the US to fail — even its enemies (where else will they store their stolen wealth? Switzerland???) There is no alternative to our crappy system.
This is why I’m convinced that whenever Trumpty Dumpty finally pitches things off the wall, it’s going to be a total mess of concerned parties running in to fix it. Nobody wants to deal with a second gas station owner with a nuke situation like we have with Russia, especially not when we’re so important.
Will lessons be learned? Will America become a destitute and violent dump? One thing’s for sure: I wouldn’t be expecting any money back from this government if they borrowed from me.
The US isn’t “meant to fall”, it’s falling because we couldn’t put the ridiculous racism to bed. It’s falling because we allowed people to literally buy politicians openly. Most of all though, it’s falling because market liberals legitimately thought they could get away with robbing the entire rest of the world forever with increasing boldness even though that hinged entirely on the USSR’s continued existence.
You can’t blame a conspiracy for what is more easily explained by plain greed and stupidity.
That sounds like an old Marshall Plan goal.
Where are New completed for sale. Trump visited JP.