The New Residential Construction Report for October is a disaster. 
New Residential Construction
Today, the Census Department released the New Residential Construction report for October.
- New Home Sales: Sales of new single-family houses in October 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000. This is 17.3 percent (±12.8 percent) below the revised September rate of 738,000 and is 9.4 percent (±19.0 percent) below the October 2023 estimate of 673,000.
- Sales Price: The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2024 was $437,300. The average sales price was $545,800.
- For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 481,000. This represents a supply of 9.5 months at the current sales rate.
Note the margins of error in this report of 12 to 19 percent.
New Home For Sale by Stage of Construction
Stage of Construction Details
- Of the alleged 481,000 homes for sales 103,000 have not been started
- 113,000 are finished and the number is rising at the fastest rate since the Great Recession
- 378,000 homes are started or completed. This represents a builder commitment that’s very hard to stop.
October 7: Government Employment Rose by an Amazing 785,000 in September
BLS math is often peculiar. This month is a real doozie. Four charts.
November 3: Excluding Government, Year-Over-Year Employment Is Negative 9 Straight Months
I did a deep dive into the latest jobs report this weekend. Here are some interesting numbers.
November 20: Quarterly QCEW Data Provides More Evidence of BLS Jobs Overstatement
Hard evidence from QCEW report suggests more negative revisions coming for BLS nonfarm payroll report.
My prior comparisons and advance calls suggest we see negative revisions in nonfarm payrolls from 2023 Q2 to 2024 Q2 of well over one million. My initial stab is about 1.2 million to the downside.
The Fed predicts an immaculate soft landing, I don’t.
Soft landing already achieved I think. 6 month PCE is 1.8% annualized and no recession.
12 to 19% error. That’s called an uneducated guess.
BLS cheated.
We’re 7 million houses short. This won’t catch us up. And we have stagflation, business stagnation accompanied by inflation. We have a negative fiscal multiplier.
Recession Since 2022: US Economic Income and Output Have Fallen Overall for Four Years ⋆ Brownstone Institute
It’s going to take time to fix this broken economy. I concur
…after the trump clown car gets done with it.
RE agents 3% commission on $1/$2 million houses = $30K/$60K. A few of those, their year is done.
Realtors no longer get an automatic 3% commission for selling and 3% for buying. Due to the lawsuit EVERYTHING is now negotiable. Buyers may have to pay their own realtor fees.
Not Mish
https://x.com/DrunkRepub/status/1861458088269680809
Unless someone sets the interest rates at 4% or more, you can expect every living dwelling will be owned by a hedge fund or private equity, and we will have been conquered without firing a shot. We will all be renters and working at minimum wage.
Mortgage rates are over 7. 4 isn’t happening. I agree we should limit funds from buying RRE.
Agreed with you both.
Capital Gains Tax them to within an inch of their lives.
Always seemed backward that money you work for is taxed more than money you get because you have money.
Given that the wealthy are in full control of the government, I can see how this arose.
Stupid crap.. pushing Family Farms right into the hands of Archer Daniels Midland or whatever corporate bioengineered nonsense.. how about we take all that you own with an inch of your life you arrogant prick
You mean the global market of bond and treasury buyers that nobody controls?
They call it “neo-feudalism”.
This is the plan. Crash the economy with tariffs and mass layoffs, causing a massive recession, then the billionaires that own our government can swoop in and score assets at bargain prices.
This is the largest grift in history.
Yet another Blight of the Biden economy.