I did a deep dive into the latest jobs report this weekend. Here are some interesting numbers.
Except where noted, charts in this post are from the BLS Household Survey. The unemployment rate is from the same survey.
It’s important to not mix the Establishment Survey (Nonfarm Payrolls) with the Household Survey.
Year-over-year comparisons are best done with Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) numbers. For month-over month comparisons, it is mandatory to use Seasonally Adjusted numbers.
Change in Employment Excluding Government
I created the above chart by subtracting the year-over-year change in government employment from the year-over-year change in employment.
For nine straight months, employment excluding government has been negative.
For all of 2023 except December, year-over-year employment excluding government was +1.8 million on the low end and +2.8 million on the high end.
January of 2024 was +330,000 followed by 9 straight months of negative numbers.
Non-Ag Employment Excluding Government
Non-agricultural employment excluding government peaked in August of 2023 at 138.026 million and is now 137.240 million, down 786,000 since the peak.
Government Employment
The above chart shows why you should not make month-over-month comparisons with unadjusted numbers.
Change in Employment Level
Seasonally-adjusted employment in September rose by a 430,000 with government up 785,000.
Many people screamed of manipulation. Others screamed of bad seasonal adjustments.
But look closely at the last two charts comparing the NSA numbers to the SA results.
Three-Month-Comparison
- For August-thru-September 2023, Government SA was up a total of 473,000.
- For August-thru-September 2024, Government SA was up a total of 506,000.
In October, we set a new high in NSA numbers and SA numbers.
There’s not that much of a seasonal-adjustment beef here, but there sure should be concern over all the government jobs.
Establishment Survey Change in Government Jobs
The establishment survey also shows huge jumps in government jobs.
Look closely, it’s almost entirely at the state and local level. The driver for this growth is the surge in immigration.
BLS Nonfarm Revisions
If I am not mistaken, I believe we can spot a general trend here.
Job Openings Drop by 418,000 as Quits Show Major Weakness
On November 1, I commented Job Openings Drop by 418,000 as Quits Show Major Weakness
Job openings and quits, not impacted by hurricanes, put an additional spotlight on the poor October jobs report.
Nonfarm Payrolls Rise a Mere 12,000 with Government Jobs Up 40,000
Also on November 1, I noted Nonfarm Payrolls Rise a Mere 12,000 with Government Jobs Up 40,000
Blame hurricanes if you like, but the impact is debatable. Only Hurricane Milton was in the reference period.
The amusing thing about these numbers is the number of screams I hear every month about purposeful manipulation of the numbers by the BLS to make jobs seem better than they are.
Trust me on this, the BLS would not add 785,000 government jobs in one month to make things look better.
Now, please review the first three charts and the charts in my nonfarm jobs report (previous link) above.
If you believe the economy is humming and jobs are strong, then please think again.
“…For nine straight months, employment excluding government has been negative….”
Isn’t this the goal of the Biden-Harris Economy? Asking for a liberal friend.
Off topic:
American Freight just declared bankruptcy.
I have a friend who was just told he no longer had a job, nor any of his coworkers.
This is a major employer. I do not know if this is liquidation or reorganization. If he and everyone at his location was terminated immediately it sounds like liquidation.
This is not a small employer.
This sounds bullish for risk assets. Only a matter of time before stimulus is unleashed.
The ‘risk assets’ need to adjust in price, NOT get bailed out again–which effectively eliminates the RISK!.
If those employment numbers would be correct, labor productivity growth over the last few quarters would have been extremely fast. Maybe the household survey is not good at picking up employment growth due to immigration?
In “Glorious Socialist Utopia”, you work for Government. Government not work for you.
Factory orders horrific this morning. Make it stop
I don’t remember where I heard this, but it bears repeating: If government is allowed to persist indefinitely it will take everything and produce nothing.
Sounds kind of “Milton Friedman-ish” to me.
Once gov’t reaches 10-20%, they can exert total control. Even the gov’t needs a part of the economy to be productive.
Oh yea, we’re at 20+% already … put a fork in the USA …they’re cooked.
The SEC should require Government to report whenever Government owns more than 5% of a sector.
Oh, wait…
Nevermind.
The massive printing appears to be on a cycle. Dot.com, housing bubble, COVID money drop. Maybe the next one will be printing to soften the blow for fired government employees.
doubtful …Trump/Musk have no compassion.
Any mass re-orgs will be tied up in liberal DC courts and 4 years clock will run out.
Seeing as the people hired into Govt did next to nothing for the economy except spend the deficit dollars they were paid for doing next to nothing, they will not be missed.
QE and $5 Trillion annual federal deficits coming right up.
No way out.
I can’t bring myself to give that a thumbs up – even though it’s true. It’s going parabolic and cannot end well.
Or not-parabolic … just a few decades of inflation, stagnation, accelerated decline of living-standards and pacification …
All while China strengthens and partners with local dictators to slowly take control of resources (oil/minerals) in the Middle-East/Africa … BRICs is the beginning-of-the-beginning … China’s trade of arms-for-oil is the mid-game….already happening with Iran/Russia.
US can sit behind the oceans, continue our infighting and deteriorate for a couple generations….plenty of victim cards remaining. PRC is patient so, as the server says, Enjoy!
Two generations and the problem will have aborted itself.
Interesting. Perhaps this is a reconstruction of the venerable CCC in anticipation of what is to come.
Mises: “In fact, year-over-year full-time job growth has now been negative for nine months in a row, for the past thirty years, that has only happened when the economy is in recession”
Glad to see someone else beating the right drum
A basic question that has probably been answered before.
If I have a 5-day, 40hr/wk job that is cut back to 4 days/32 hours, and I go out an pick up a part-time job to make ends meet, does that count as an additional job creation? I know many people that have to work 2 jobs to get by. Many don’t meet the 32-hour threshold for company benefits.
Yes, that’s an additional job.
Yes in Establishment Survey but no in Household survey
Just terrible numbers.
The federal deficit expands by trillions. Everyone works for the government. Stocks at all time highs. MMT magic. As a bonus inflation crushing the little guy. What’s not to like? Wondering if a biological male (funny how we now have to add this to the word male) can identify as female and thereby through performative language actually be a woman, can the little guy identify as rich and thereby be rich? Wait, wut?
Last time I checked, the Government didn’t actually make any Money. They are using Tax-dollars for pretty much most of their spending, for sake of discussion, but please correct me if I’m wrong.
Assuming that’s correct, it would mean they have been “Causing Inflation” by taking American Citizens Tax-dollars, and hiring Government Workers. The even crazier part, is that they are Not Hiring Police, Fire, Border agents, etc. to assist Citizens with safety and comfort, but rather IRS agents to Tax Citizens even More! They are hiring Lawyers to fight Citizens, as J6 (made up BS) clearly shows, and also we can throw in Presidential Security Detail Personal as well, as they were short handed as witnessed.
– For nine straight months, employment excluding government has been negative.
> I assume This Includes all the illegal immigrants on Government payrolls. Oh, you don’t see them exactly, as they are illegal, so not on the Books perhaps?
– For all of 2023 except December, year-over-year employment excluding government was +1.8 million on the low end and +2.8 million on the high end.
> We now have an answer as to how they have been slaying American Citizens at an alarming rate, over the past few years. It’s ALL a numbers game. The Government has More Money, More People, Massive Surveillance ability, Etc. And they have been adding to the numbers for years now, in preparation for this election perhaps?
– The amusing thing about these numbers is the number of screams I hear every month about purposeful manipulation of the numbers by the BLS to make jobs seem better than they are.
> To your point, that’s realistically not happening, but other things could be in play perhaps? Manipulation of Data, to provide Misinformation about the topic, has been used extremely aggressively. Illegal immigrants play a huge part of this, as the numbers are very easily manipulated and altered at will pretty much. With the MSM (Modern Day Brown Shirts) doing their bidding for them, they can steer conversation,agendas, money, numbers etc. any way they wish to, and they have been!! It’s been truly Government Vs. Citizens, and we have been getting literally destroyed!!!
There is so much work to be done, to get this Country on the right track again. I hope it can be done, but that depends on the Election Results IMO!!!
The Govt. is printing a TRILLION dollars every 100 days.
The J6 people are idiot traitors, and are lucky to not be swinging from a rope like they deserve.
I am mot sure we need to go back decades and decades for the form of punishment. I am not for hanging people, as it’s rather barbaric and cruel.
This is making a massive assumption they are guilty of anything, and many, I do believe, have yet to be officially charged at all, with a court date and all the legal ease that goes with this sort of thing usually. The President was cleared of ALL J6 Charged by the CSI & the FBI. Not much here really…
Charges and CIA, odd spell additions they chose?
Although Trump not the sharpest tack in the box, he was smart enough not to march to the Capitol.
Yes! The MSM tried hard to slander him on that note, but he was clear and concise on his messaging.
He just told his army of fools to do it, watched and did nothing while his colleagues were hunted through the capital.
So since you know everything that happened on J6 how about letting everyone in on who ordered the Capitol Doors magnetic locks to be released.
My house has a door lock and entry is granted by my permission in my home.
Since Capitol building is designed to withstand a direct military assault, how did unarmed civilians gain access unless they were Let In?
Likely it was his daughter who advised him not to go with the crowd.
It is the Democrats who want to fundamentally change America, not the J6 people.
Re “ illegal immigrants on Government payrolls”
It’s funny that people who aren’t doing work for the government, but collecting welfare, SocSec and other benefits, don’t get counted as being on government payroll.
Be interesting to see data that includes # of people receiving all sources of income, in addition to “workers”.
Hmm, also need to count parents as working in a childcare capacity even if not getting paid ??
Just perhaps, employment may also be changing because employers cannot find the experienced. qualified, skilled workers required. Example, I am a retired IT computer analyst programmer, my resume is out on the internet. I received at least 2 dozen job opening emails per week for various IT positions. My guess is it’s happening in every industry across America
Perhaps, but a lot of these “Openings” are not really that. They are looking to replace workers, due to so many untrained, unqualified people in jobs they can’t do, or effectively and efficiently enough for the job they have.
They were also dealing with massive turnover, so the searches are manipulated, and done without much in mind, but finding bodies. Many employers were looking for literally a heartbeat, and you were hired. That needs to all get worked back out, but you can’t just fire people you just hired in massive numbers, as it doesn’t look good, and you will more than likely go under fighting against the backlash.
So yes, they are looking (I had the same happen 2 months ago, and I left 2 years ago!), and hoping like anything to find someone, anyone, that can “Do The Job” Successfully!!
I get those emails also. I don’t have my resume out there – I don’t even have a resume.
I just view them as noise. Even the ones with company names, are often agencies.
Bundeep Ramalamadingdong doesn’t really have a job for you.
That’s what you call “crowding out”.
Treasury to borrow 546 billion in the 4th quarter of 2024 and 823 billion in the 1st quarter of 2025.
Since Feb 2024 employment changes Y/Y, ex gov, is shrinking, but with 20 millions illegal immigrants it’s rising. BLS didn’t count them yet. Aug 2024 is a month to remember !
Gov employment changes Y/Y is rising at a turtle pace relative to total employment
with and without the new immigrants.
We cannot absorb so many new immigrants without causing harm to poor people, especially to blacks and latinos minorities. We shouldn’t allow saboteurs and immigrants who want start revolution in the US to stay here.
This just shows if the government really wants to, it can prevent a recession. Furthermore, the impact of firings from the private sector will dent the inflationary pressures from the added deficit spending from these unnecessary hires, relieving bond yields and allowing the government to play this game for longer.
The risks here are long term, including bond investor revolts (minute frankly, since Covid bond investors have been making failed bets as the deflationary mindset is just too strong), and misallocation of capital (a more serious threat. We saw a version of this since 2008 that has lead to the rise of China and the relative stagnation of the West).
Re “ the government really wants to, it can prevent a recession”…
I must disagree. The government can delay a recession but not prevent it. Ability to delay is limited by many factors, many of which are not in government control. And many would argue that the choice to delay comes with high hidden costs, including making the eventual recession worse.
Otherwise I generally agree, except that I don’t think that loss of private jobs offsets excess government jobs from an inflation perspective.
The loss of private jobs does reduce spending but also implies less production, which should be a wash for inflation.
But the government jobs and spending generally do not increase production and are purely inflationary.
What? Of course, many/most government jobs increase production. You’d have a death wish if you told a locally paid cop he provided nothing (like safety!) to society.
And BTW, I personally thank my kids’ teachers often for their daily instruction of my kids. They do provide educational services and thus production of services.
It’s absolutely fine to have the opinion we can do without certain government jobs and so save taxes paid for them. But’s its dishonest to say government workers do not increase production or provide anything to society.
We were discussing Federal funding – deficits to prevent recessions. Cops and teachers are not funded by federal budget deficits; state and local governments are not allowed to run deficits.
Let me know which Federal government workers you believe are net positive for production? Especially when compared to private sector workers with same total compensation …
It’s not all about me or my own personal preferences, but a lot of Americans appreciate military personnel, air traffic controllers, ICE immigration enforcement, etc. and all the production services they provide (many/most of which would not be produced by the private sector otherwise). But it’s no skin off my nose if you think they provide nothing and want to get rid of them all. You’re entitled to your opinion, of course.
But if you’re talking solely about the federal budget deficit, firing every single one of these employees would still make only a dent because most of the federal deficit is due to the popular transfer programs like Medicare and Social Security. If you can come up with a way to eliminate those, you should run for office.
BTW other national entitlement (transfer) programs like unemployment insurance, WIC, SNAP, TANF, Medicaid, etc. definitely prevent deeper recessions. You personally may not like them, but…
Some of your last items may be state-funded…..but I agree that they are a necessary safety net. We’re glad that we’re not on them, but it’s good to know they’re there.
So? We can just all work for the government. Euthanizing squirrels. That’ll be our entire national economy – euthanizing unauthorized creatures.
Are Humans creatures? Just curious, because this could get really ugly really fast…
They are, “from a certain point of view” 🙂
Oh boy, you don’t say… hey, can that be our little secret, lest the others find out…
It’s only a small step from “stopping disinformation” to “euthanizing unauthorized voices”, isn’t it…
Subtract fiscal and monetary stimulus from the last several years economic growth and what level of actual real growth results?
“What are Negative Numbers for $20,000,000,000,000, Alex?”
The federal (not local or state) government budget deficit is huge, so that is stimulative and problematic in the long run.
But we’ve had monetary restraint for a couple of years now (except for the past month). Reducing liquidity from its all-time highs and raising interest rates. The Fed has been fighting Congress.
“Monetary Restraint”?
US Total debt from Debt to the Penny:
Today: $35,951,601,173,936.02
2 Years Ago: $31,252,011,952,406.60
Increase: $4.7 trillion
The Federal Reserve’s feeble attempt at “restraint” has been utterly dwarfed by the Federal Government’s utter lack of restraint.
This is why the various financial conditions indexes show no tightness…
Bonus: National debt growth rate is $8.4 billion per day (average over past 2 years).
That would be an increase of $6.1T in debt in two years, not the actual $4.7T. But we get your point that debt has gone up a lot (but no need for hyperbole)
My typo, the value is $6.4 Billion per day.
Yeah, that jibes with the “huge” budget deficit I noted above. But that comes from Congress, not the Fed.
And if you don’t think there’s any monetary restraint or any tight financial conditions, you might want to explain that to all the CRE business going under in the US right now or the many posters here on this site that complain about the high (and “unfair”) mortgage rates new buyers face
Well done … some analysis, not opinion. This is what we pay your for! 🙂
Next step, subtract out foreign-born workers to see some major workforce deterioration.
DOGE, Department Of Government Efficiency under Elon Musk can fix that.
That Department will be Awesome, as will the New Kennedy Department for “A Healthy America”
Love these NEW Trump Administration Add Ons!!
AHA and DOGE, hmm…
Reported that Ron Paul was talking with Musk.
Only way Ron Paul can have influence at Federal level is if Trump wins.
Otherwise he and those thinking like him intentionally get shut out of Government.
Ron Paul is 89 years old.
Yes he is. His mind however still functions clearly and his on point message of his lifetime still rings true.
We are living now in what Ron Paul saw and acted upon trying to prevent.
People get Old does not mean that a vision they have carried for many years has lost validity.
What a crowning achievement for Ron Paul to be called upon to help turn the Nation he has served and loved back to its roots.
You’ll be nice to him if he starts to slip a bit, in public?
He remains one of the Great few who have put country before self.
Will always be an admirer of Ron Paul.