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New Home Sales Rise But Supply Jumps to Most Since Nov 2008

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3 comments on New Home Sales Rise But Supply Jumps to Most Since Nov 2008

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The Census Bureau New Residential Construction report add another data point suggesting the big rebound boom in housing is over. 

New Construction Details 

  • Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 708,000.
  • Sales ares 1.0 percent above the revised June rate of 701,000.
  • Sales are 27.2 percent below the July 2020 estimate of 972,000.
  • The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2021 was $390,500. The average sales price was $446,000.
  • The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 367,000. This represents a supply of 6.2 months at the current sales rate.

Note that sales are down 27.2% from a year ago. This is due to seasonal adjustments on steroids coupled with massive distortion in sales from Covid. 

Supply in Months at Current Rate 

At the current rate of sales there is a healthy 6.2 months of supply.

New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction

Optimistic Builders

There are 368,000 new home for sales. Of them 230,000 are under construction and 34,000 completed.  

Although the number of completed home is low, the 230,000 under construction is the most since November of 2007. 

The number of homes for sale not yet started is 104,000. That’s the most since June of 2006.

What can possibly go wrong?

Shortage of Homes?

Bear in mind the The NAR Claims There’s a Chronic 5.5 Million Shortage of Houses.

Amusingly, the NAR argued in 2007 that there was a shortage of houses. Clearly there wasn’t.

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Mike Shedlock

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3 Comments
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Oldest Most Voted
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
OT…..I still think Gavin Newsom holds on to his office, but it’s very close….and if Newsom loses, Elder is the winner. He’s doing better than I thought he would.
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Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
I always have to check the local numbers to see how we stack up.
Starts are up, but inventory is at a 0.6 month supply and falling. 
I found this little gem on the city website.
“Throughout the country and the state, population growth was driven by populations of color. In Austin, we see a unique pattern of diversity. Non-Hispanic Whites are driving growth in Austin, contributing nearly 40 percent of all growth throughout the decade. The Asian population is now the third largest race/ethnicity group in the City, making up nearly 10 percent of the total population. One of every 5 people added to the Austin population in the last decade was of Asian descent. Hispanics also made up about 20 percent of growth in the city in the last decade. The African American population also grew this decade but at a slower rate and now make up 7 percent of the total population.”
A unique pattern of diversity. (Eddie spews coffee out of his nose).
There goes the neighborhood.
“
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Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
When you post these, I always have to look at my local market stats immediately. lol.
No worries. 
“Austin remains the 11th largest city in the country, and trailed only New York City, Houston, and Fort Worth in the rate of population increase since 2010.”
Starts are up but inventories are still dropping. Supply is 0.6 months and dropping.  
I think I have it figured out though . It’s all the white people moving in who are ruining it for everybody else. 
“Throughout the country and the state, population growth was driven by populations of color. In Austin, we see a unique pattern of diversity. Non-Hispanic Whites are driving growth in Austin, contributing nearly 40 percent of all growth throughout the decade. The Asian population is now the third largest race/ethnicity group in the City, making up nearly 10 percent of the total population. One of every 5 people added to the Austin population in the last decade was of Asian descent. Hispanics also made up about 20 percent of growth in the city in the last decade. The African American population also grew this decade but at a slower rate and now make up 7 percent of the total population.”
A unique pattern of diversity. Got to love that spin. 
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