Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000.
The New Residential Construction report shows jump in sales much greater than the Bloomberg consensus range of 625,000 to 680,000.
New Home Sales
- Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
- This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent (±25.1 percent) above the August 2024 rate of 693,000.
For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply
- The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent (±1.3 percent) below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000, and is 4.0 percent (±5.2 percent) above the August 2024 estimate of 471,000.
- This represents a supply of 7.4 months at the current sales rate. The months’ supply is 17.8 percent (±16.2 percent) below the July 2025 estimate of 9.0 months, and is 9.8 percent (±17.2 percent) below the August 2024 estimate of 8.2 months.
Sales Price
- The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2025 was $413,500. This is 4.7 percent (±7.3 percent) above the July 2025 price of $395,100, and is 1.9 percent (±9.1 percent) above the August 2024 price of $405,800.
- The average sales price of new houses sold in August 2025 was $534,100. This is 11.7 percent (±9.5 percent) above the July 2025 price of $478,200, and is 12.3 percent (±10.3 percent) above the August 2024 price of $475,600.
New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction
The supply of completed homes for sale is the most since July of 2009.
I don’t consider vacant land a home for sale, but the census department does.
Of the alleged 490,000 homes for sales, 105,000 have not been started. The other numbers are historically on the high side.
124,000 homes are completed and unsold. This is the most since July of 2009.
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Powell Admits Prior Monetary Framework Was Hugely Flawed
At the annual Jackson Hole meeting this year Powell Admits Prior Monetary Framework Was Hugely Flawed
The Fed just announced a new monetary framework. Is it any better?
The short answer is the new framework is nearly as flawed as before, and the Fed still holds many disproved economic theories. See above for details.
Let’s keep this real simple. Existing home sales are tanking, while new home sales are increasing. Why? Well, it’s simple. Builders are slowly lowering their gross margins as they are forced to pay big incentives to get new buyers into homes. Lennar, for example, recently stated their average selling price is now below 2019 levels. Builders still have margin, while existing homes sellers have a ton of margin as well but little incentive to give any of it up. As a result, there are no such incentives on the existing home side of the aisle.
Need more data. The fluctuation reported is within the reported statistical range.
Also, are these final closed sales with millions of dollars changing hands, or merely contract signings? I could see people wanting to “date the rate” on the recent interest rate drop, without marrying the house just yet. Especially people who don’t intend to live in the home.
If there really was an organic surge in sales, by people who need a house to live in, then the “completed for sale” inventory should have fallen, not risen.
What went down was “under construction”.
Another possible explanation is a bad seasonal adjustment factor.
The smarter homebuilders have switched over to smaller floor plans and lower price points, along with the existing aggressive “discounts” and rate buy-down strategies. Although the wild numbers don’t seem to align with what I see on the ground, in light of the new strategies it’s not that surprising to see new units finally start to move again. But margins have to be taking a huge hit, and we know they are.
That sort of shift in mix would make sense, but it isn’t consistent with reported rise in median price.
Somehow they “sold” a bunch of higher-end units “under construction” but not the 124k in completed inventory.
There is absolutely new way that homebuilders are seeing a rise in median price. Not in this environment.
That’s going to boost the GDP and inflation. There is no way the FED can cut rates at the next meeting without roiling the markets.
New home sales may be up because the materials and skills to fix up older places have become too scarce and expensive.
It’s a reasonable consideration. I think materials are leveling out. However, skilled labor is a premium. I find myself making cash deals with skilled labor guys. But they’re having trouble finding reliable labor. Old septic systems, plumbing, electrical, siding, roofs, fences, paint…on homes that are 20-60 years or more old…labor is expensive.
So much for a collapsing new homes market.
I wonder what the average buy down amount was? $30-36K?
If you look at national sales in the US since interest rates went up in 2022, prices reached new highs in 2023, 2024 & 2025. https://www.redfin.com/us-housing-market
Places that looked like they were leveling off decided to go even higher in 2025.
One of those places is Pennsylvania. Now that Boston and New York prices are out of reach, suddenly Philadelphia is a hot place to move to. Baltimore as well.
Time for an update on this story Mish…
How it started: https://mishtalk.com/economics/congratulations-argentina-for-electing-the-worlds-first-libertarian-president/
How it’s going: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-argentina-bailout-milei_n_68d4118ae4b0da7d3de2e2fa
People are buying homes in order to get rid of the rapidly depreciating US dollar.
Something doesn’t jibe. Everything I am reading shows that inventory is exploding and home builders are either buying down mortgage rates, decreasing sales price, offering upgrades at no cost, or a combination of all of the above to move unsold inventory.
Depends on what you’re reading.
“inventory is exploding” may refer to older homes being put on the market (and not sold quickly) by existing homeowners.
Simultaneously, home builders could be offering all kinds of perks and buy-downs to get rid of their new builds before they become inventory.
Essentially two different, but related markets. Homebuilders go out of business if they can’t build and sell new homes. Existing homeowners don’t have to sell (until they do)
“either buying down mortgage rates, decreasing sales price, offering upgrades at no cost, or a combination of all of the above to move unsold inventory.”
sure, and these dramatic steps may be working resulting in lots of sales. it’s not like people’s desire to own a home is down, if prices are decreasing, moetgage rates are down for whatever reason and offering free upgrades of course that will move inventory.
I agree. Homes are not selling here.
New homes for sale completed are up to 124K. The rest is bs. The Fed and the gov constrict RE supply to avoid banking crisis #2, cause by the collapse of their RE assets.
=Lies, damned lies, and statistics
funny all i see is IT IS SAME LEVEL AS IN 1970XXX
ppl was 25*30% less!
%rates were probably 10*12%
USA was in brutal conditions, (oil shock-embargo and Vietnam war ending)
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and here we are … same level 50 years later
SO HOW ABOUT PURCHASING POWER OF USA PPL?
I genuinely can’t tell what point you’re trying to make here.
jesus! you are really not very bright. at all
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here is the title ! did you even read one?
New Home Sales Surge 20 Percent to a Three-Year High
surge
20 pct
3 years high
and i posted it is still same as in middle of 1970xxx!
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are you even american? what university did you graduate from? what did you major in ?
cant wait for HONEST answer, !!!!
alx
I was trying to be polite and say I actually didn’t understand what you’re trying to say but let me put this in a way you might get
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U rite like a gen-u-wine retard so I literally. cannot. understand you when u SPEAK like ThIS, !!!!..
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I have. Doctorate. Computer science. So I. Spell. Not. Like. Monkey,!!!
I should ask where you’re from that taught you that punctuation. A d1 University no doubt.
This electronic document signed like a 90 year old fogey by “Creamer”
25 little old basis points brings this about? Interesting.
it is bs.
it could not have translated into so fast
it takes a few months to close deal in USA buying house
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