A study by the Kiel Institute confirms the obvious. 
Americans Pay Almost Entirely for Trump’s Tariffs
Please consider Americans Pay Almost Entirely for Trump’s Tariffs
Although the US government intended the tariffs to target foreign businesses, the policy actually harms the domestic economy. “The tariffs are an own goal,” says Julian Hinz, Research Director at the Kiel Institute and one of the authors of the study. “The claim that foreign countries pay these tariffs is a myth. The data show the opposite: Americans are footing the bill.” The tariffs act like a consumption tax on imported goods.
The research team analysed more than 25 million shipment records covering a total value of almost four trillion US dollars in US imports. The findings are clear:
- US customs revenue increased by approximately 200 billion US dollars in 2025.
- Foreign exporters absorbed only about four percent of the tariff burden, 96 percent passed through to US buyers.
- Trade volumes collapsed, but export prices did not fall.
Falling Import Volumes
2025: tariffs on Brazilian imports were suddenly raised to 50 percent, and for India, from 25 to 50 percent. Again, the data show that foreign exporters did not lower their prices to offset the additional tariffs. Had exporters absorbed the tariffs, their US prices would have fallen relative to other markets—but this was not the case.
“We compared Indian exports to the US with shipments to Europe and Canada and identified a clear pattern,” Hinz explains. “Both export value and volume to the US dropped sharply, by up to 24 percent. But unit prices—the prices Indian exporters charged—remained unchanged. They shipped less, not cheaper.”
Kiel Policy Brief
- The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers.
- Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at nearly $4 trillion, we find near-complete pass-through of tariffs to US import prices.
- US customs revenue surged by approximately $200 billion in 2025—a tax paid almost entirely by Americans.
- Event studies around discrete tariff shocks on Brazil (50%) and India (25–50%) confirm: export prices did not decline. Trade volumes collapsed instead.
- Indian export customs data validates our findings: when facing US tariffs, Indian exporters maintained their prices and reduced shipments. They did not “eat” the tariff.
We did not need a study to confirm the obvious. But there you go.
Related Posts
January 3, 2026: What Was the Overall Impact of Trump’s Tariffs in 2025?
Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
January 6, 2026: If the Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Tariffs, What Are His Options?
I count seven options Trump is likely to try. There are serious problems with all of them.
January 13, 2026: If the Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Tariffs, How Big Might Refunds Be?
US customs trade data, compared to Trump’s Truth Social claim. Possible decision January 14.
January 17, 2026: Canada Breaks With the US, Cuts Tariffs on Some Chinese EVs
Congrats to Trump for moving Canada and China closer together.
January 17, 2026: Trump Hits European Nations With Tariffs Until Deal Reached to Buy Greenland
If you need another reason IEEPA tariffs are idiocy, you have one.
God are you TWS fools are dense
For the record, The institute is consistently recognized as one of the premier institutions for economic research in Europe and in the world.
MediaBias Fact Check says “ We rate Kiel Institute as least biased based on publishing low-biased scientific research and studies. We also rate them as High for factual reporting.”
As I have commented before – for clowns who cannot read …
The effective overall tariff rate is about 18 percent. Counting avoidance it is about 13 percent.
And second, importers stockpiles good so there is a delay in price hikes.
Finally, for things we do import, prices are 100% definitely going up and it shows up in the CPI of those items
Mish thinks this is a good faith discussion where facts and stats will sway people.
He could not be more wrong.
He is arguing with people who voted for the guy claiming that Haitians were eating cats and dogs, who wanted to impose a “Muslim ban” against all Muslims from anywhere and everywhere, who said he was going to release the Epstein files, who was going to build a wall and Mexico was going to pay for it…
It is a waste of time.
Like arguing with a fat truck driver wearing a mega hat spouting off about how he was going to get a $5,000 check from Trump’s bull shit tariff revenue. Not exactly the deep end of the gene pool…
that is why we call it pax dumbfuckistan. the wealth created in usa for the past 400 years makes it possible for fat fucks to not only, NOT starve to death, but to have plush lives of nonstop sportsball and entertainment and heat and running water………in many lands for many centuries, being that stooopid would mean certain death. it’s not raw intelligence. it’s not using the brain.
Swans and ducks etc. Not cats. The left is as full of shit as the right, as you’re proving it here. Democrats = Republicans
blue and red team pom pom girls, of a uniparty. morons think pro wrestling is real, too, i imagine. only difference is abortion rights.
Unfortunately. We have 300+ million crazy people with the most destructive power ever amassed in history, who worship the stupid computers (AI) they themselves created. What could go wrong?
Another waaaatabout crybaby
Art do you ever watch video of Trump? If so, it’s surprising you didn’t hear him at the presidential debate vs Harris saying “They are eating the dogs. They are eating the cats.”
You can call this video AI if it makes you feel warm and clever, but many readers here watched this happen live, and know you are full of crap with your false claim.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gEuUp2Um3E
YOU are lying about what the invaders caught and ate. What Trump said is his problem which doesn’t excuse YOUR lies.
You’re not even making sense at this point, why do you bother?
You can’t say that here. You’ll upset the Kamala, Tampon Tim, Lindsey Graham and McConnell bobble heads.
True. My only confusion is why such idiots inhabit mishtalk.
I guess I’m naïve regarding the cross-over between intelligent economic interested people and people who cannot think for themselves politically.
But I shouldn’t be surprised. I’m been reading Mish for almost 20 years. Same with Yves Smith both economics, with Yves more left. I have given up on Yves with all the crazy pro Russia anti Ukraine posts. That kind of left politics is lost within itself….
You are mistaken… the pro russia anti ukraine people are NOT left!
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2025/03/strange-rise-of-pro-russia-right-trump-vance
lol, so you voted for Kamala and Tampon Tim. I see. Not sure this is the own you think it is.
I always wonder if the people who think the tampon thing is funny are 13 year olds, but really, how many 8th graders are reading this blog?
Do you use tampons? I’m assuming you’re a guy. Tim wants you to be able to use one. Sorry the truth is inconvenient.
They think in 5D (five dimensions of dumb & dense). Normal people might have 3 dimensions of dumb but MAGA folk are a bit extraordinary able to harness two additional dimensions of dumb from the universe. It’s an extraordinary feat that works toward their detriment.
The daily MAGA comments confirm this everyday and it’s intriguing to read/watch like viewing creatures at the zoo from a distance because they often become violent too.
amerikans have been a petting zoo of morons since the mid 60s. the top few percent create enough wealth to support the petting zoo of useful idiots.
You’re arguing with future death camp guards.
And, in the 3rd Reich, the brown shirts were particularly pleased to be as nasty & brutal as possible to all those with a higher IQ than themselves, i.e. essentially every one that was able to read and write.
That’s us guys! So beware!
I knew we would get yelled at for not falling for this propaganda BS from Kiel.
I wonder how many Americans know what “Importer of Record” means?
Where did anyone ever get the idea that foreign countries pay the tariffs? That is as stupid as thinking that football stadiums don’t cost the taxpayer anything because they are paid for with bonds.
Regardless of who hands the tariff payment to the US government, the cost of that tariff is passed along until it winds up added to the price tag of the product in the store. All tariffs, taxes and government fees are paid for by the consumer.
The key phrase is trade volume is down and that was the objective.
Anyone with business experience will recognise how large buyers push for discounts in exchange for volume. The reverse also applies. When export volumes decline, exporters are often under pressure to raise prices rather than lower them. There isn’t much discussion about this aspect.
My comment apparently is awaiting approval. We will see if is approved.
No, I didn’t approve it, way to Trumpist for my liking . Sorry
Is your comment about tariffs? If so, I will take a wild guess as to its content. Most likely I will be wrong; but it’s fun to try.
As I recall, you perform a lot of mental gymnastics to spread FUD about tariffs. That most of the tariff will somehow be magically absorbed through mysterious mechanisms by the foreign exporter and their country. This is meant to imply that American companies are not impacted very much, and foreigners take the brunt of tariffs.
You also like to say that the US needs to produce much more strategic items domestically, like aluminum, and tariffs will encourage more production. Perhaps you added that as well?
I would have assumed (with all your previous posts) you know by now that more than one link attachment sends posts to purgatory
On April 3, 2025 The Kiel Institute predictions of the Trump tariffs:
“Simulations using the Kiel Institute’s KITE model show that Donald Trump’s trade policy primarily harms the US economy. The proposed tariffs could reduce US economic output by nearly 1.7 percent within a year, push up prices by more than 7 percent, and lead to an export decline of almost 20 percent.”
https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/new-us-tariffs-hit-the-us-itself-hardest
Their predictions were as wrong as you can be. US growth surged 3.8% Q2 and 4.3%Q3 with the same expectation for Q4. Inflation was a modest 2.6% and US exports did not decline 20% but instead rose 5% in real terms.
The latest study is damage control. Their economic model didn’t work so instead of showing why it didn’t work it says “just wait it will eventually”. It should be obvious that their model is seriously flawed but they seem to ignore that it is and doubled down. It is the common reaction in economic think tanks and brokers. Being wrong is not bad for business as long as everyone else is wrong too.
You’re being disingenuous in your ‘analysis’ of their work; I don’t know if it’s purposeful or not.
The study you quote (which is not the most recent one cited by Mish) is from March 2025. They specifically state in that past study simulated outcomes under the assumption of “all tariffs implemented/announced (inc. retaliation) + new ‘reciprocal’ tariffs” (in every graph). Those tariff plans have changed dozens of times since then.
With the Trump TACO, you’d have to run new simulations every week, under your expectations of modeling LOL. That’s why so many business people decry Trump’s TACO methodology. It might be good for him, but long-run business planning does not go well (much more ‘luck’ involved) if there is so much chaos.
But maybe you haven’t done much business planning yourself?
From Kiehls website – “ Today, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy sees itself as the research institute in Germany for globalization issues.”
[Shrug] Nothing changes until SCOTUS rules on tariffs, if then.
I’m certain that Trump appreciates your keeping his name in the newscycle while riling up the hoi polloi but ultimately, the excessive number of Trump posts here accomplishes nothing.
There is an old joke about a guy who goes to his doctor and says “Doc, I keep banging my head into the wall and its beginning to hurt. What should I do?” And the doctor answers “Stop banging your head into the wall!”.
This is an impossible result.
The impact of tariffs will be split between consumers and the owners of firms in proportion to the elasticity of demand for the product.
This result implies virtually zero elasticity for a broad range of products and this is observably wrong.
Unit volume of exports from India into the US dropped. That shows elasticity. If there was no elasticity then volumes would have been the same but prices would have gone up. There is probably very little price elasticity on foreign imports because this market is already very competitive. Exporters to the United States already had their best and lowest prices. Lowering prices more would have caused them to lose money. So this doesn’t surprise me much.
Of course it will all depend upon the product. Perhaps importers will be able to find another source that is cheaper. Perhaps no one wants to import or export due to constantly changing import requirements. But in the end this is a tax, taxes reduce spend, and therefore less will be purchased and produced. In the overall economy it may be deflationary because there is less to be spent but the particular items being tariffed (taxed) costs more.
except the US treasury will pick up the slack in spending………with the added border taxes. as we know the government loves to spend on imperial warfare. the list on our ubermensch places to wage war is long. from MN inside the empire to greenland and cuba and persia………….what could go wrong girls ?
That is an excellent point worth analysing:
But also consider most of the tariffed goods.
-Raw products (eg steel etc) pretty damn inelastic in the medium term.
-Household basics, pretty inelastic
-Electronics, more elastic but many/most are exempt.
The most elastic aspects of consumer consumption is likely services. Which naturally is mostly local.
Surprised it isn’t 100%.
If Americans (consumers and producers) are “bearing 96% of the tariff costs” the tariff is essentially a tax.
The SCOTUS will be ruling soon on whether these tariffs are legal and constitutional.
Elementary school civics teaches that this country was founded on the principle of “no taxation without representation.”
The Constitution gives the power to tax exclusively to the Congress. The Congress never voted for these tariffs. If this Congress stands for anything it is tax reduction. So, the tariffs lack the legitimacy of “consent of the governed.”
If SCOTUS lets Trump’s tariffs stand, it will be a very dark day in U.S. history. It will mean that SCOTUS is now a partisan tool of our President, providing no check whatsoever — also contrary to the intent of the Founders.
In that event, the electorate will know that the U.S. is being ruled extra-legally, constrained only by the “morality” of the President. This shreds the fabric of checks and balances in our Constitution. Nothing that issues from this government will have no legitimacy whatsoever.
I hope some brave Republicans and Democrats in Congress have a Plan B for that eventuality. Otherwise, say bye-bye to limited government and our basic freedoms.
The gestapo tactics of ICE in Minnesota are only the beginning, folks.
The time to worry about the ‘Constitution’ and the ‘rule of law’ was back when Congress and the public allowed the executive to start wars without former declaration, or when the Secretary of State Madeline Albright said on 60 minutes that 500K dead Iraqi children was “worth it”, or when patriot Act was passed, or when people were kept in Guantanamo without being charged, or the the Justice Dep. refused to prosecute bankers that were “too big to jail” or when no one in the government faced prosecution for the war in Iraq.
Trump and everything else that is going on right now is just where that road ultimately leads to.
BINGO. WE HAVE A WINNER. ALL THESE DAMN FOOLS ARE CLUTCHING PEARLS OVER TRUMP IN 2026……….LIKE THIS IS A SURPRISE. PRO TIP. IT’S GONNA GET A GREAT DEAL WORSE. TRUMP WILL LOOK LIKE A SCHOLAR IN 10 YEARS FROM NOW. POTUS MELANIA AND BARON IN TRUMPLANDIA FOREVER. DO I NEED TO /SARC
Mish thinks the Supreme Court will rule against Trump. I am not so sure they will. And even if they do, I doubt that it will matter for tariffs. He will find another way to implement more tariffs. However, it might matter if the court rules against Trump from a legal and political point of view. It might slow the growth of his dictatorship if our legal system stands up to him.
Yes. It is very dark in America today. Unfortunately, it is going to get a lot darker. This is only the first year of four.
While I appreciate people who take a stand, like Mish, I am not sure that matters either. Once a dictatorship gets a foothold, it usually expands exponentially. We will have to see if the Supreme Court decision slows it down.
I also don’t think there is a “normal” to go back to anymore. That old America has been dead for a while now and Trump and everything else that is going on right now is just the stench of the corpse. We are in for an entire new game no matter what the SCOTUS rules.
“You only have to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come down.” — Adolf Hitler, remarking about the USSR on the eve of Operation Barbarossa … or … Trump remarking about the current state of American democracy.
BINGO. ANOTHER WINNER
I agree. As long as Congress doesn’t play the role it is supposed to play under our checks and balance system, Trump can indulge in whatever idiocy he wants. The courts can delay but not stop his stupidities. It’s a dismal situation, and it may have to get much worse before it gets better.
“This is only the first year of four.”
You are so optimistic! This is the first year of forever. Revolutionaries never willingly relinquish power. And these thugs control the most powerful force ever created in human history.
usa has not won a war in 80 years. unless you mean the swiss bank accounts being filled up by the MICC, executive suites.
Wars are so ancient history bmcc. Only need Special Ops to keep the leadership in line, c.f. Venezuela.
SCOTUS has been a joke, since bush v gore.
Since Sandra Day O’Connor personally selected GW Bush as president.
The Kiel Institute aims to be Europe’s preeminent research institute for global economic affairs, combining cutting-edge research on par with leading economics departments with visible and lasting policy impact on the national and international level.
How could it not cause a price increase? Basic economics doesn’t take sides — costs go up, prices follow. Every action has a reaction.
We’re seeing the same pattern elsewhere. Another Trump‑era policy ripple is hitting anyone trying to buy a laptop. The AI boom has devoured global RAM supplies, pushing memory prices through the roof. That means low‑income buyers get pushed even further down the ladder, because a “basic” laptop is suddenly priced out of reach.
Don’t forget about electricity costs.
“We compared Indian exports to the US with shipments to Europe and Canada and identified a clear pattern,” Hinz explains. “Both export value and volume to the US dropped sharply, by up to 24 percent. But unit prices the prices Indian exporters charged remained unchanged. They shipped less, not cheaper.”
– Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at nearly $4 trillion, we find near-complete pass-through of tariffs to US import prices. > There has to be somebody that is chartered with watching these numbers, I sure hope, but I wonder now. We can’t be this stupid about it can we? Not Trump, but The Entire Administration? Any Whistleblower out there looking to speak up?
– US customs revenue surged by approximately $200 billion in 2025, a tax paid almost entirely by Americans. > This is a massive problem if let loose to gather steam. I want to hear what’s being done to address that, if anything?
– The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers. More of the disgusting same…
– Event studies around discrete tariff shocks on Brazil (50%) and India (25–50%) confirm: export prices did not decline. Trade volumes collapsed instead. > So we pushed, what we thought, were existing prices down, but at our expense? Bad Idea!
– Indian export customs data validates our findings: when facing US tariffs, They did not “eat” the tariff. > More of the same it sounds like, and that’s a big problem.
– Although the US government intended the tariffs to target foreign businesses, the policy actually harms the domestic economy. > We were hearing this along the way, but also that it wouldn’t harm the Domestic Economy. Well it appears now, with a study and Data, although not warranted by many, some like myself wanted the proven facts and data to support it, and not conjecture.
– The tariffs act like a consumption tax on imported goods. The research team analyzed more than 25 million shipment records covering a total value of almost four trillion US dollars in US imports. The findings are clear. > Now that’s an obvious problem, and one that should have been, and remained obvious. I was one of the trusting the numbers, The Administration was pushing, and we would see. Well it looks like I am NOT seeing what I was told I would see, and I don’t need glasses… I believed something, Voted for something better I thought, but looks like it’s a failure in reality. Plenty of time left to straighten this out, but we may need some New Blood? In this Administration…
>> I want to see “The Plan” to correct this, before it becomes a nightmare. I don’t need a Fast One, but rather One That Will Work!!! Maybe time to replace a few pieces on the board, with some stronger proven pieces?
– We did not need a study to confirm the obvious. But there you go. > Thank You just the same! Lots pointed out here, that doesn’t match up with what was being said or led to believe. I now will be scrutinizing this data moving forward, and not what the lips are stating…
I do not think that anyone has a plan to “correct” tariffs. If anything, Trump wants to expand tariffs further and use them whenever he wants to exert pressure in order to get what he wants (like Greenland).
Some hope that the Supreme Court “might” shoot down some of Trump’s tariffs. However, he would just find other avenues to impose tariffs. So I am not hopeful that any Supreme Court decision would matter much.
There are a couple of things that I have trouble understanding on Trump’s tariffs. He repeatedly says that he is making the “foreign countries” pay tariffs to the US. Yet no foreign government has ever paid a cent in tariffs to US customs. Neither has any foreign exporter who ships goods to the US.
US Customs “exclusively” collects tariffs from companies and individuals in the US who import goods into the US that are subject to tariffs. No one else pays. Only Americans.
It is hard to believe that Trump does not know this.
He also keeps repeating that he is collecting trillions and trillions in tariffs from other countries, when the reality is the US collected roughly 200 billion in tariffs from American companies in 2025.
Again, he must know this. So why does he keep repeating trillions and trillions; and that it comes from other countries?
My best guess is that he loves being adored by his MAGA followers for being so brilliant. He also knows that they will believe whatever he tells them without question because they are brainwashed cult members.
He also likes the idea of collecting an additional 200 billion in taxes from Americans, so he can spend more on the military.
And he realizes that even though foreign exporters don’t pay tariffs, they do suffer from lower sales to the US as a result of tariffs. Which is why he uses them to negotiate with foreign governments to get “deals”. Because he loves making “deals”. And he tries to extract something for himself, or his family, in every “deal” he makes.
The disturbing part is that he doesn’t give a crap about the American citizens and businesses who have to pay these tariffs. He doesn’t care about how many of them go out of business, because tariffs made their business unprofitable.
Instead, he stands before us all and says that tariffs will make American Manufacturing Great Again.
And those of us who have some understanding of how these things work, just stare in astonishment, and wonder how so many Americans are so gullible that they believe him.
Let’s not forget the Covid Scam with: “you must wear a mask when you enter my restaurant and then you can remove it when you sit down.”
ha ha ha. that always cracked me up. thank heavens there were a few restaurants that never closed and let their patrons in the back door. happened to be the mafia owned ones, that i knew and heard about through the grape vine
We had a friend that let us in the backdoor Then he said , keep your head down lol
I don’t think the majority of Americans are gullible. Many simply don’t delve into finance and economics to the same extent as people reading MishTalk.
For many, tariffs are a symbol. They represent dominance and support for the idea that America is/was being ripped off. The narrative matters more than the accuracy. Trust has collapsed, so institutions and experts are assumed to have ulterior motives, if they are believed at all.
The independence of the media has also been weakened. Fears of retribution soften reporting or lead to uncomfortable facts going unreported altogether. Headlines are diluted and falsehoods are framed as “claims”. Trump has been explicit about punishing broadcasters, revoking licences and targeting owners through regulators or contracts. That inevitably reduces serious investigative journalism in the mass media.
The result is a hardened following that has largely closed its eyes and ears.
i attended a trump rally 2 weeks after he announced in summer of 2015. it was obvious to me he was a cult leader with a magic spell. my pal who joined me, a young chinese amerikan with a fullbright scholarshirp from harvard and entrepeneur was on his feet and fist bumping to the mussolini and hitler like rhetoric. i was astonished and did NOT believe he could win, until the autumn of 2015 and saw the locomotive of his cult of hate mongering assholes. amerikans are assholes. if you know this, you understand what has happened.
The majority have dug themselves in. Come to CA, OR or WA and you’ll see this level idiocy everywhere.
Where do you think congress is? Because it’s not wrestling control over this issue back from the executive.
Same problem we had with the border when celery stick sharted his way into office.
Because without trillions of dollars, his agenda falters. Taco needs trillions to fulfill all his promises, like tariffs checks and debt reduction, and abolishing the IRS etc
Inflation rate 2.7% is the same as December ’25.
Who is cheating?
the numbers are hog wash. how far does the 100 usd in your wallet last in 2026 versus 2016 in all aspects. r/e, food, schools, whatever you personally spend on…….inflation is very personal really. the best indicator of stressful times, both deflationary and inflationary are the purchasing power of a one ounce silver or gold coin. how many cheesburgers or monthly housing cost in rent or ownership…..can they buy today versus 10 and 30 and 50 and 70 years ago.
Most of the inflationary gain was during the Birdbrain Biden regime.
This is what you fools with Trump Derangement Syndrome try to distract from, or try to Clinton-war-room spin.
At least Trump is slowing the rate of inflation (ie., disinflation). And he slowed down spending in 2025 (with Birdbrain Biden’s budget) enough so 2025 is not more than 2024’s deficit (at least when accounting for inflation).
Recall 2024 did not involve emergency spending like 2020-2023.
So 2025 will be the first year since 2000 that the deficit did not increase.
Notice the 10 Yr Treasury remains below 4.25% despite all the recent US Treasury borrowing, and the 30 Yr conventional mortgage rate is no more than around 6%.
you are a moron. so easily divided and conquered. the red v blue team is darling. do you jerk off to a trump dolly every day ?
oh bro, please keep all homoerotic thoughts between you and your parents.
Of course that had nothing to do with the extensive period of free money PRIOR to Biden being elected.
There are significant lag effects in economies. Don’t ignore that.
(I have never seen anything great come from Biden. But at least he didn’t use his presidency to destroy allies and enrich him and his family.)
meanwhile: The EU is about to wrap up a trade deal with the Southern Common Market creating the largest free trade zone in the world (and it doesn’t include the United States).
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/eu-mercosur-sign-trade-deal-after-25-years-negotiations-2026-01-17/
Policy Article
America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs?Kiel Policy Brief
https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/americas-own-goal-who-pays-the-tariffs-19398/
gosh
maroons can’t even take the time to go through the details of the study, but rapid-fire “Mish you’re wrong” based on their fee-fees
https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/5250d502-d828-45b9-a044-264d8b8da139-KPB201_EN.pdf
So Chuckie, AOC and Bernie passed on this story but Mish picked it up🤔🤔🤔
You are on thin fucking ice with that moronic comment
Mish….take it easy….it’s the internet….sarcasm is normal.
Haha
MISH..you do not honor your readers. You have failed to disclose the methodolgy for this study. The pithy aphorism applies: Figures never lie and liers always figure.
One observation from the study comes directly from India: their export volumes decreased. This describes that the American consumer has either stopped buying those products or has found a substitute; it proves nothing as it applies to who pays a tariff.
You are losing it!
If you have a brain, I suggest using it.
Please try reading, if you can, and tell me what I wrote about export volumes.
The exports volume to the US declined. For instance, while Brazilian exports bound to the US decreased by 20%, overall exports grew by 6%. World trade is much more than trading with the US.
Mish understands economics. While you are a moron.
Who pays tariffs to US Customs? The US importer of the good. It’s been that way since tariffs were invented.
Only idiots would think that the foreign exporter or the foreign government pays the tariff to US Customs.
So they looked at 25,000,000 transactions but couldn’t provide even one example. Any one else’s BS Detector going off?
Lol! Using one example out of 25 million is ridiculous. Or even a hundred.
Then you would have complained: You picked the worst example(s)! What about the other 24,999,900 examples?”
Ok, so will you kindly provide an example?
m/s you better back off a little
he/they can come after you too
jus’ sayin’ maybe soften the rhetoric eh?
we get it
This study is nonsense. It focuses solely on shipment level data. It does not account for manufacturers who reduce their price – so the shipment data already reflects much of the discount for the tariff. It also fails to account for the retailers absorbing the tariff such as Home Depot who stated they would do so and keep retail prices the same. There is no denying there is a record increase in tariff revenues. Why does this not show up in the retail pricing data – which is lower than at any time during the Biden administration? Don’t want to pay a tariff, buy a product produced in America. It is silly to only look at import prices and ignore manufacturing returning to the US, which strengthens the economy far more than the cost of tariffs. If tariffs are so bad, why does China have the most restrictive import regime in the world. Why is there an EU – which is a tariff union?
if a retailers like HD absorb the tariffs, guess what. those are amerikan companies with shareholders and employees and suppliers……….so yes, those amerikans are hurt by border taxes. the winner is the US treasury. i at one time worked for the us treasury department, as an agent. no more. perhaps those employees at treasury are better off.
It does show up in prices – no question
Same reply I gave to Gnu:
It adds only a little to inflation if the importer absorbs most of it. However, it does lower the importer’s margins. At some point, the importer will begin to pass on a bit more of the tariffs.
So, are you saying tariffs are no big deal?
You say tariffs add only a “little” — 0.5% — to inflation. Given the Fed inflation target is 2%, that’s 25% of the target (and inflation is already 1.5% above target).
You say “90% is ‘absorbed’”. Some businesses will accept reduced margins but many will try to recover them by cutting costs and laying off people. We have already noticed a significant decline in job creation over the last six months, and tariffs are playing their part.
Then you have trade partners like China who retaliate by refusing to buy soybeans and other grains from U.S. farmers. So farmers are “absorbing” losses too. Farmers and other commodity exporters in the “goods” sector are very vulnerable to retaliation, which is ongoing.
Trump was elected to reduce inflation and create jobs. The opposite has occurred.
No. I am not saying that tariffs are no big deal. My original explanation was for someone who said that we should have 10% inflation because of tariffs; but since we don’t have 10% inflation, the report is hogwash.
I was merely explaining why tariffs have not caused 10% inflation at this point. Though I also said that eventually, importers will start to pass on more of their tariff costs to consumers, which will boost inflation a little bit more.
I think tariffs are a terrible idea, and have said so many times on this blog, primarily because they will hurt US companies; and I agree with everything you said.
I wouldn’t be caught dead at HD.
the little people love HD. let them pay the sales tax, there.
Wait, what? The Orange God (to some), told us we the US customers would not be paying for his Tariff madness! He told us foreign countries would be paying!
the ubermensch, mein fuhrer drumpf, never lies.
This study does not pass the smell test. Inflation would be at 10% at a minimum. This is because contrary to what the pundits say tariffs are not inflationary. Raising taxes does not create inflation.
That is bullshit.
As I have commented before – for clowns who cannot read …
The effective overall tariff rate is about 18 percent. Counting avoidance it is about 13 percent.
And second, importers stockpiles good so there is a delay in price hikes.
Finally, for things we do import, prices are 100% definitely going up and it shows up in the CPI of those items
Nope.
Hope that helps.
if he importer “absorbs” the added border tax, those are amerikans who are hurt by the border tax. that trickles down……..to where those importers shop and send their kids to spend……..on schools or sports or whatever
Correct. However, I was just demonstrating the math to show Gnu that there wouldn’t be 10% inflation as a result of tariffs. I address the importers margin shrinkage in another post.
yes, papa, i get what you are saying and agree. however i think inflation is just a currency event. in fact i believe there is no such thing as a trade deficit. if i pay a farmer or a massage therapist for goods or services, regardless of their location or passports, that is just trade. win/win. they get my cash or silver coins and i get what i desire. the real measure is silver and gold to one’s currency. has been this way since the Greeks in sicily invented clipping coins to scam the masses.
ffs, increased prices aren’t inflationary???