Hello CNN, Surge? What Surge?
That CNN Tweet yesterday caught my eye.
In response, I commented: Excuse me for asking, but is there any particular reason to believe CNN is right and 5 other pollsters wrong?
Curiously, Real Clear Politics listed CNN at the top despite the fact there were two newer polls. What’s up with that?
CNN Outlier
Regardless of order presented, CNN is the outlier.
The CNN Poll was conducted by SRSS. The report is 69 pages long.
In contrast, the YouGov Poll is a far more detailed 307 pages.
YouGov Clip Page 96
SSRS Clip Page 9
SSRS Weights?
Notice how You-Gov gathered and reported on stats by age, race, gender, income group, and national region.
There is no indication SSRS did anything similar, or if they did, weighted things properly.
One of Two Things
- The CNN/SSRS poll is complete trash
- All the other polls are complete trash
Excluding CNN, Biden has remarkably consistent numbers as follows: 28, 30, 29, 32, 29.
In contrast, support for Warren and Sanders is extremely inconsistent between pollsters, but with CNN having the highest total.
Only by diving into the polls can one spot potential errors.
Take your pick, but I strongly suggest the CNN/SSRS poll is complete trash and should be discarded entirely.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
CNN called it right; another bad Mish prediction
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/479884-sanders-opens-up-lead-in-iowa-poll
The (understandable) mistake Mish is making here is his assumption that CNN is still a “news” organization concerned with accuracy. That hasn’t been the case in years.
It says a lot about the indoctrination camps in the USA (we used to call them schools!!) that the populace no longer has the reading comprehension skills to do what Mish did above. Shame on the indoctrination camps
What are Biden’s poll numbers going to be when the truth about the Biden corruption comes out?
“CNN is discussing a Bernie surge. It’s fiction.”
CNN is fiction.
Bernie has strong support among young voters. They say they are likely to vote, but end up not voting. Old people have all day to vote and have nothing better to do.
Capitalist running dogs cower in fear.
Bernie would be 80 within the first year of his presidency. Creepy Uncle Joe will be 79 in his first year if he becomes president. This is getting worse than the Soviet Union.
What will be the 2020 version?
I believe this is my final call before the 2016 election
“If Trump does win North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and Nevada, he will win. My off the cuff analysis suggests he is ahead in those states, but some of them are very close.”
The polls were quite reasonable – few believed them – one reason is Trump had to carry nearly every close state.
I had the rust belt going to Trump, including Michigan.
Trump says there is so much income growth that they will look at entitlement cuts. It is the greatest economy ever created according to him.
How can pollsters get correct data if people don’t pick up their phones if the number is unknown?
The polls are meaningless as we saw in 2016.
The 2016 polls were actually quite accurate. Few believed them. I was one of the few but still thought Trump would come up one state short.
The trend heading into the finish line was clearly headed Trump’s way. I commented on that and accurately.
People dissed the UK polls this year, not me. One has to dig to decipher what they mean.
No poll had Trump ahead or winning going into election day. End of accuracy.
The effect of his heart attack is fading from the public memory. Things like that have an expiration date of a month or two.
The newest poll, YouGov has Sanders at 18%.
I suggest averaging all the polls except CNN.
Lol. Sanders has a big following no matter what they say. I’m not following the narrative.